A Major Stock Prediction Breakthrough

OK, sure, sure, we’ll get to the “usual” stuff in a minute.  Retail sales and such…

But before we do that, Chris McCleary has a couple of columns up this week over at the National Dream Center site that demand reading.

Why?  Because (as we’ve long expected) when sliced consistently with Grady’s Nostracodeus software. Chris is getting extremely high correlations between future stock market prices and what people DREAM.

Part 1 is here: For those with eyes to see: Secret mirror to Wall St.

Part 2 is here: The Secret Mirror to Wall St., Part II

The basic drift of it is that dreams seem to be able to predict the future of the stock market up to as much as the 70% kind of range.

And this would make sense because as I’ve told you for years, there is likely a correlation simply because human systems all seem to have a major “As above, so below…” aspect to them.

But beyond this, about 70-80 percent of all that passes for “news” in today’s world is pre-planned.  So much so that I can tell you that I’ll be looking for New Zealand’s retail sales figures on Sunday afternoon at 3:45 PM because it will already be Monday where?  Just one example, but enterprising reporters (Attkisson aside) are rare as hell.  In reality we live in a sanitized press release scheduled world.

Just like the Fed capacity and utilization report will be out Monday morning at 8:15 local time. 

It has always stood to reason that people will dream about things in advance…want my rap on structural hysteresis?   We know (at least in my very cursory look at dream time delays) that if a person experiences something shocking (like getting fired), the dream resulting from that experience may crop up to anywhere from that night  to 10-days later.

So by the time a dream is aggregated and considered by Chris & Grady’s Dreambot version of Nosty software and other tools Chris has developed, you can see how there might be a lag.

But the lag may happen to place the dream results just ahead of physical manifestation.

Let’s take that worker laid off on April 1.  He has a dream with work layoff content on April 7th. Chris then might pick out the trend on April 8the or 9th.

But it’s on April 15th when the company issues the press release that triggers the stock decline…

This is just the kindergarten version.  And tomorrow on Peoplenomics we’ll discuss a lengthy email that I’ll be sending Chris (and Grady) today about how to move forward.  There are ways to improve not only the integrity of the data, but also navigate certain other issues.

For this morning, however, the main thing to watch is what?  Dreams.  And for reasons I won’t go into yet, you really, really, REALLY want to be posting your dreams on a regular basis on the National Dream Center‘s DreamBase.

When Chris mentions “The meek shall inherit the earth” who do you think the “meek” are?  Another hint:  We’ve had plenty of “future can be bought” but now we’re seeing a path where future can be “earned” by the sincere.  And, in the process, ways to maintain predictive integrity going forward which is way cool and the whole point of things.

But more on that tomorrow.  We now return you to the regular scheduled news, such as this morning’s retail sales report…

Spending Our Way to Oblivion

Imagine you just won the Powerball for $500-million.  What would be the first thing you bought?

Many people will name this bauble or that trinket.  But other than a large ring for Elaine, I can’t think of much else, right off the bat.  Everything we buy is really a two-edged sword.

I might want a bigger & faster airplane than our old Beechcraft.  Which sounds really cool, but the problem that comes along with it is it would increase my chances of killing myself.  Complex airplanes (yes I can fly them) are where many more things can go wrong.  Like the landing gear might not come down…that kind of thing.

So the mindset “auspicious” is critical. Must be present to win, and so would a 200 mile per hour sports car extend or shorten your life?  Do you really have serious experience driving over 100 miles an hour? 

The Retail Sales figures that follow are always interesting.  Not as interesting as winning the Powerball might be, but with proper mindset, you can infer the national mood a bit from reviewing the data:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal
variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $444.5 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from the
previous month, and 4.1 percent (±0.9%) above October 2013.

Total sales for the August through October 2014 period were up 4.5 percent
(±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2014 percent change was unrevised from -0.3% (±0.2%).

Retail trade sales were up 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from September 2014, and 3.8 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 9.1
percent (±2.1%) from October 2013 and auto and other motor vehicle dealers were up 8.3 percent (±3.0%) from last year.

What is terribly obvious is that it’s only Auto Sales that are keeping the economy afloat:

One of these days I’m either going to have to report we have reached consumer super-saturation where every man woman and child has two cars and an SUV, or the next great boom in ‘Merica will be the garage building business.

Under the surface, this is NOT a good report.  The national mood, at least as far as I’ve been able to pick up going into town and just listening to people’s “between the lines” implications seems to be something like “Yeah, sure the economy sucks, but you only go around once, so I’m going to buy me a new…(fill in the blank).

Futures are flat, gold under $1,150 on the futures.

Critical Fed Number

Holy shit! Money supply is cratering —>>>

The M1 money supply figure for the most recent three month period has gone negative on an annualized basis.

And the money supply growth of M2, basis the last three months and then annualized was up a total of 3.4%.  This means the dollar is still getting stronger, not weaker, as the wealth continues to accrue to the rich.  It also means the rates will be firming and when that happens, car loans will move up and the stage will be set for another decline.

But this kind of action could be a year or longer working out.

My Consigliore’s Ebola Tracking

When a tax attorney/CPA looks at Ebola, I pay attention:

Official Numbers as of November 9, 2014
Total 14,098
Deaths 5,489
Note: the CDC estimates that actual cases in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea are two to three times higher than officially reported numbers
Some important things to note wrt the Ebola epidemic:
The Good News:
1) It appears that in the early stages of infection it is NOT very contagious, if contagious at all.

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Coping: With Senseless Directions

This morning began in a particularly ungraceful way.  As I sat down in the semi-dark corner of the house (rather than walk the 50-feet out to my office, where I hadn’t turned on the heater last night, so it would be frozen in there this morning) I realized that I was sitting on my wireless keyboard.

And the mouse, that rests on the arm of this chair (wood) had departed the vicinity as the full coffee cup spilled hot liquid on the family jewels (so to speak).

By the time the mess was cleaned up, my mood – which had been “Friday is a Happy Day” – had returned to its usual dour self.

Ii set about work, anyway, realizing that some good could still come of the day if I could only spot the really important news.

Suddenly, there it was:  An advisory from the National Weather Service…

…Freeze warning remains in effect until 9 am CST Friday…

* location…along and southeast of a line from Palestine to Cameron.

* Temperatures…lows in the mid 20s.

* Impacts…cold sensitive plants could freeze and die. Outdoor pets will need extra protection from the cold. Cover outdoor faucets to prevent plumbing freezing up.

Precautionary/preparedness actions…

A freeze warning means that the seasons first episode of sub- freezing temperatures are likely to occur. These conditions will kill sensitive plants and residents are advised to protect tender vegetation. Automatic sprinkler systems should also be turned off to avoid creating ice patches on nearby roads…driveways…and sidewalks.

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Amnesty Next Week?

Everyone knows the Mexican-American war from the history books.

Wars end with borders drawn and terms agreed.  Or, they used to.

Except that past string of corporate-owned politicians in Washington have ignored the border and instead have misappropriated resources of Border Patrol so that it’s a joke.  How did all those kids get here?

Now, it looks – just as I predicted before the election in no uncertain terms – like the Obama administration will roll out its 10-point plan next week which would let 3.7% of Mexico’s population to take up permanent residency here.

Democrats apparently have big hearts and don’t mind empty wallets (as long as they’re someone else’s):  The Washington Examiner notes that 42 percent of Medicaid signups are from immigrants and their US born offspring (used is the term anchor babies which isn’t a polite term).

The timing after the election is clear:  The administration will be moving as quickly as possible to roll the 4.5 million into America before the republican controlled congress and senate start blocking funds.

In the meantime, I’d like to congratulate the Obama administration for undoing the outcome of the Mexican-American war as part of the ongoing corporatist agenda to create a North American Union which will eventually do for our quality of life what the European Union has done for countries like Greece and Cyprus.

Way to go, O and ya’ll in the poor excuse for a congress.

By failing to enforce our southern border, they’re now about to unwind 166 years of American history because we failed to address the low-intensity conflict and the drug cartels that are rotting Mexico from the inside.  When Mexico falls, it will be by our hand.

The sad truth is there would not be drug cartels without a ready U,S. market and the porous  border allows for exactly that. 

Consequently, our taxes will go up, Mexico will continue to deteriorate, and the democrats will once again proclaim a great victory for “the people.”  Along with the CANAMEX highway and the Mexican trucks now displacing American rigs.  Yessir, fine defeat, this one. Way to frigging go.

For the record, I am a firm supporter of legal immigration.  The Executive branch, unilaterally deciding to impose a tolerance polity is not in my view, legal immigration.  It’s an imperial presidency.

Both sides of my family, decades ago stood in the lines at Ellis Island.  It insults their integrity to allow short-cutters  including many with criminal records to remain here.

I won’t bore you with more opinion.  There’s legal immigration (good) and there’s tolerance policies and ignoring the law of the land (bad).  We’ve lost the ability to distinguish between the two.  To wit:

8 U.S.

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Coping: Does a new Theory Explain Woo-Woo?

As usual, a reader gets credit for sending me a press release link that I missed in my usual scan of the news.  Check this ou – from a university in Australia:

Griffith University academics are challenging the foundations of quantum science with a radical new theory based on interactions between parallel universes.

In a paper published in the prestigious journal Physical Review X, Professor Howard Wiseman and Dr Michael Hall from Griffith’s Centre for Quantum Dynamics, and Dr Dirk-Andre Deckert from the University of California, take interacting parallel worlds out of the realm of science fiction and into that of hard science.

The team proposes that parallel universes really exist, and that they interact. That is, rather than evolving independently, nearby worlds influence one another by a subtle force of repulsion. They show that such an interaction could explain everything that is bizarre about quantum mechanics.

Quantum theory is needed to explain how the universe works at the microscopic scale, and is believed to apply to all matter. But it is notoriously difficult to fathom, exhibiting weird phenomena which seem to violate the laws of cause and effect.

As the eminent American theoretical physicist Richard Feynman once noted: “I think I can safely say that nobody understands quantum mechanics.”

However, the “Many-Interacting Worlds” approach developed at Griffith University provides a new and daring perspective on this baffling field.

“The idea of parallel universes in quantum mechanics has been around since 1957,” says Professor Wiseman.

“In the well-known “Many-Worlds Interpretation”, each universe branches into a bunch of new universes every time a quantum measurement is made.

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"What’s Left to Steal?"

We consider the next moves for the leadership of our fictional Directorate 153 going forward.  We periodically look at a fictional extra-government unit that really pulls the strings in global affairs.  Not that it’s real, of course, but when we look at what goes on in the world, we can see what seems at times so much like an “invisible hand” that we have to consider the existence of such a group as a real possibility.

When we do, some interesting insights appear.  Particularly when there has been recent talk of the Berlin Wall anniversary and such.  Think of it as the “How we get bent-over next” search.

First, though,  coffee and headlines plus our trading model.  Oh, and do we thank climate change for this morning’s iced coffee?

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Semi-Holiday for Markets

The bond market is closed but the stock market is open this morning.

Since anyone with half a brain doesn’t care, at least until the Fed starts to raise interest rates and then all hell will break loose (they’ve as much as said this will happen).

So we are left to ponder the great questions of life like the growing evidence that cognitive dissonance (the gap between what you see and what you’re told) is creeping into media reports where it makes some people (like me) crazy(er).

Take for example this report about how “Scientists Plan to Use Robotic Drones to Study Melting of Sea Ice in Antarctica.”   Let me carefully quote this part because it relates to the whole climate change argument:

“Dramatic increase in the melting of sea ice in the Antarctic has been puzzling scientists for long. Scientists as of now are not able to understand all the variables responsible for extreme conditions in the Antarctic region.”

The cognitive dissonance part comes if you have any kind of memory, whatsoever; something we get into in the Coping section following.

I refer to the report “Antarctic Sea Ice Hits New Record.” which came out in June.  A careful, tiny, Fair Use quote from that:

“Sea ice extent in the Antarctic reached a record level in June with an anomaly of some 2.074 million square kilometers above the long term average, according to data published by the University of Illinois Polar Research Group .”

OK, I find myself wondering, which is it?  “Increase in melting of the sea ice” or “Sea Ice Hits New Record”?

Like so much else in the news, this exemplifies in compact form, the contradictory inputs that make no sense, whatsoever, when taken as a whole.

Still, the fact that robots are being touted seems to point to where we have suspected for a long while:  Climate Change mantras will be used as another large government spending boondoggle, now that War has sort of run its course in Afghanistan, but the rerun in Iraq seems to be coming along nicely.

All of which gets us down to the matter of this being Veterans Day and as always we accord highest honors to those who have served, many of whom are still paying the high cost of Liberty ranging from death to long-term health issues of all sorts.

The fact is government would not exist without people paying for it…and the way to have people lining up to pay is to have a big external ENEMY.  Not that they aren’t real…despots are always waiting in the wings as a special breed of people who want to bully and abuse the hard workers, steal their  goods, and do as little as possible except turn people on one-another for blood sport.

We need to honor those who keep the despots (foreign and domestic) at bay.

Parking Meter Dissonance

A semi-holiday like this one bothers me.  I should have slept it and taken my brother in law to breakfast.  Instead, up at 4 AM to sort out how this holiday works.

In a state like Texas, you don’t have to go very far to find genuine respect for those both in, and retired from, uniform.  Free parking meter day in Tyler, Texas, just up the road from us.

Some cities are a bit confused how to behave.  Take Honolulu…most parking meters are free, except reports KHON TV “…for the meters on Kal?kaua Avenue along Kapi‘olani Park and metered parking lots.”

Some cities (Like Phoenix, AZ) are entirely disrespectful of the Holiday, apparently viewing all holidays with distain:  “Since August 18, 2014, all meters have been enforced 8 a.m. to 10 p.m.

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Coping: With Partial Holidays and Dcotors

Coffee.

That’s what we need more of, around here.

Yesterday, for example, I missed my usual half-octane blend of regular and decaf, going for the decaf-only because it was time for my once-every-six-months visit to the doctor for the blood pressure and cholesterol checks.  Hence, no coffee…because with me, a cup of  serious caffeine is good for 10-15 more points on the high number.  I tend to add 10 points as a “white coat” reaction, anyway.

If the reference in the Monday column to Columbus Day made no sense, this morning I’d have to agree with you.  Doesn’t to me, either.  At least today is doesn’t.

Which explains why Mr. Timewarp somehow got into his head that Veterans Day was Columbus Day.  “No, you idiot,” wrote one reader directly “Ask Panama what day it is.”    Monday? I shot back.

Seriously, I would have asked the retired ex-SF/Ranger brother-in-law, but Panama was busily cleaning his favorite little .380 pistol at the time and Pappy didn’t raise no fool.  Several readers hinted at the error and I was slowly catching on.  I don’t take chances….

Going forward, we’re just going to have to agree here:  Every-so-often I will display signs of aging.  Or, I am so helplessly addicted to coffee that I can’t function without it.  I should put a little flag in the heading of each column that says something like “  Coffee:  ON” or “ Coffee: OFF.”  We might even find a correlation with spelling errors.

Where were we now?  Oh yes….

So I’m there at the doc’s place. The blood pressure was fine… although the doc is still trying to sell me on preventative medicine.

You know, we need to talk again about you having a colonoscopy, since you’re almost 66 now….”

At this point I gave him my best upper-management Look of Death for Saying the Wrong Thing. I’m good at it. 

He looked worried, furrowing his brow as he weighed whether to press the point….and then brightened and said “Well, OK, we talked about THAT then….”  Smart man.

In a previous session I’d explained to him (in no expletives deleted terms) that I appreciate that there is a trade-off between a colonoscopy and risk of having some dreaded disease, or other.  But I also made it clear that when someone sticks various instruments and implements up in “No thank you” areas, and wants me to shoulder all the liability if anything goes wrong, no, that is not exactly “risk sharing.”  Show me some quid pro quo, bro.

Near as I could read the proposed 13-page waiver of liability fine print, if something goes wrong (like an intestinal wall is broken) that could lead (worst case) to death.  I suppose that at least would not be a tax event from my standpoint, but still….

Let me think about this:  My side of the equation is, let me see:  Money and death.

The doctor’s side of the equation?  If something we4nt wrong, they might have to do emergency surgery and that could delay the next appointment on the health care delivery conveyor belt, or in extreme cases, delay a tee time.

The good news is that there was an article in the October (yeah, the month when Columbus Day was) issue of MIT Technology Review that described how a spoonful of special yogurt and a urine sample might very quickly replace the colonoscopy.

I’m sending my doctor a copy of the article and mention that “when the test yogurt is available in strawberry flavor I’ll be taking that replacement test.  Provided the waiver of liability is less than two pages.  I might consider other flavors, too, like blueberry…”

Alternatively I should really ask if a self-inspection is out of the question since several readers have suggested that my head is already conveniently located in the required inspection position.

The “Offset of Reality” Problem

Since this is a pseudo-holiday, we can focus on the important items next.  Not that personal health isn’t, but to my way of thinking WoWW (World of Woo-Woo) reports are much more fun to study than, oh, say colonoscopies.  One is shit weird while the other is just weird shit, if that doesn’t ruin your PopTart.

Some readers think that the report from James in yesterday’s column gives away the real source of Woo-Woo reports (like jottles and such) as nothing more than perception breaks on the part of the people involved…  Reader Bobbi sent this….

Hi George,

   As much as I’d like to blame the Hadron collider, I think reader James is probably correct. It’s probably what makes the difference between an autistic person and a normal person. Maybe Woowoo is a glitch in that system.

  This morning I had a brief one. I had a rack of 40 test tubes, each with its own screw-cap lid securely fastened. One tube in the first row had its lid missing.

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Decent into Anarchy

Robert Kaplan, writer extraordinaire for The Atlantic wrote both an article and a marvelously prophetic book back in 1997 that I mentioned many times in old columns.

The book was released in paperback in 2001 and was summed up, in part, this way by Amazon reviewer John Miller:

Kaplan’s vision of the future is a bleak one, full of ethnic conflict as the world falls away from a cold war that at least provided a kind of stability in even the shakiest of countries. That’s gone now, of course, and Kaplan’s descriptions of life and politics in Sierra Leone, Russia, India, and elsewhere are keenly troubling. Much of the book–but not all of it–has already seen print, mainly on the pages of The Atlantic Monthly and The Wall Street Journal. It is brief in length but not in importance.

The book is still worth reading because Kaplan does a marvelous job of capturing the “slow trend” aspects of how we’ve descended into whatever we call nowadays.  The Coming Anarchy: Shattering the Dreams of the Post Cold War is still worth reading, but, like any book that is predictive in nature, its usefulness degrades over time.  It was a gem.

I was therefore pleased this weekend to offer Peoplenomics readers some of the thinking of my friend Howard B. Hill, whose new book is out.  Because in it, he explains in easy-to-understand terms, why another Global Financial Panic is coming.

In Finance Mon$ter$, insider Hill weaves his own story as a pioneer and innovator together with the story of the the structured finance revolution up to and through the global financial crisis. He explains how to avoid the coming you-know-what, but you’ll also see from reading the dynamics how that might not…  Optimistically, we still have some ways to avoid it, but tick-tock..

You’ll get to know the people who drove the business, and what drove them. You’ll see what they were doing, and go onto the trading desks where it happened. You’ll understand the decades of developments that made the meltdown possible, and why mortgages to just three percent of the people in America became a threat to the global economy.

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Coping: With the Return of WoWW

The World of Woo-Woo seems more and more like it comes in waves.  For now, woo-woo is back and running strong….

Let’s start with a report from a reader named Leslie:

I’ve read the woo reports with interest, thinking that the interesting stuff always happens to other people. So color me amazed that I have two woo events to report— in the same week!

I’m the Clerk at my local Post Office. On Saturdays, I open the office and am alone for the first hour of the day. I have a very set routine. As I walk in the lobby doors, I take my badge and my keys out of my purse. They’re clipped together as one unit until I take them apart. I clip my badge to my shirt collar, use the key to open the office door, and then slip the keys in my pocket. I set up everything for the mail’s arrival, do the preliminary computer work, open the safe, and then get the scanner out and ready. The scanner requires that I zap the bar code on the back of my badge.

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An Amazing New Book & The Slow Death of "Prepping"

I’ve got good news for you and I have bad news for you.

The good news?  We may see the slow end of Prepping (at least for a while) because of a curious twistization *(to make up a word) of economic history.  I’ll explain in a moment.

The bad news?

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The Jobs Report Smokes

OK, Ok, I get it… just the facts:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 214,000 in October, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in food services and drinking places, retail trade, and health care.

Household Survey Data Both the unemployment rate (5.8 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (9.0 million) edged down in October. Since the beginning of the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons have declined by 0.8 percentage point and 1.2 million, respectively. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for whites declined to 4.8 percent in October. The rates for adult men (5.1 percent), adult women (5.4 percent), teenagers (18.6 percent), blacks (10.9 percent), and Hispanics (6.8 percent) changed little over the month.

The jobless rate for Asians was 5.0 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.) In October, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 2.9 million. These individuals accounted for 32.0 percent of the unemployed.

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Coping: With WINGS and Things

Check ride day, so I’m in a a no-nonsense mood.

As the chief pilot of Ure International Airways, a concept admittedly borrowed from the late Ernest K. Gann, author of The High and the Mighty and one of the finest aviation writers of all time (along with Richard Bach of Jonathan Livingston Seagull and One), there are requirements to stay current on flying skills.  These have to be dragged out and shown off to a flight instructor or check ride pilot every so often, or you’re grounded.

It was almost 35-years ago I’d met Ernie Gann.  He’d just done the television special Masada based on his mini-series story The Antagonists

After all these years, the home-base of great author/pilots has blurred a bit, no doubt the effect of long-chain sugar molecule relatives and too many after-flying stories.  This is called “hangar flying” and the proof runs anywhere from 3.2 to 86, depending on heat and local supplies.

Gann and his wife, as I recall lived somewhere up on or northeast of Whidbey Island, north of Seattle.  Richard Bach, and his wife, lived up in the San Juan Islands, but for reasons I never understood, they moved to somewhere down in Oregon.  Seems like a fair number of pilot/writers despite sometimes awful weather.

Let me take that back.  I do understand.

It all depends on which is more important to a fellow; sailing or flying.  If yo8u like flying and sailing or boating, there is nowhere better.

The principles are the same, in either case.  You have a wing (which is all a sail is) and you control the angle of attack (with a yoke if by plane or sheets if by sea) and the lift is what makes adventure happen.

This time of the year, and in fact usually starting in late August, the San Juans tend to develop morning fog.  Some of the best (and safest) pilots you’ll ever meet fly for Kenmore Air Harbor which makes regular stops at places like Friday Harbor and Roche Harbor.

Gann lived, as I recall, more inland, away from the foggy Straits.  I want to say Coupeville, but memory is likely bad on that.  Bach’s move to Oregon would make a lot of sense.  The Cascade range tends to “scrape the rain out of the clouds” before they head east and that means central and eastern parts of Washington and Oregon have lots of clear days.

This morning, as fate would have it, the weather looks to be clear in the San Juans, Coupeville, WA, and even Seattle looks like good flying.  Portland, Oregon, on the other hand is looking at dense fog.  Just moving to Oregon doesn’t solve all problems, after all.  Next week there will be rain in Eastern Oregon and possibly snow on the backside of the Cascades where it’s cold.

Check rides, like today’s, aren’t especially difficult. Once learned, manipulating the controls of an aircraft is sort of like riding a bike.  But it’s the “head work” that takes a little bit of doing.  Even with a good memory, the process of staying sharp involves practice, study, and testing.

So yesterday was spent mastering a course in Aeronautical decision-making which involves working out acronyms like PAVE, IMSAFE, and PPP. And just when you get all that done, you remember that you need to brush up on the colored light flashes from a tower which are still used in the event of total radio failure at night.

The education part never stops.  I even carry my Washington DC SFRA card.  (SIFF-rah) Not that I plan to fly into Washington…it’s sort of like a USCG 6-Pack Captain’s ticket for ther serous boater:  Brag point.

The main difference, though is that if you have a captain’s ticket (even a 6-pack, not a 7 oceans sailing master 300 tons) and something goes wrong, the insurance outfits will point at the captain for not avoiding trouble.  In aviation, its somewhat the other  way around:  The more study and recurrent training you can document, the more insurance companies like you.  Rates come down because 80% of aviation accidents are people issues, not mechanicals.

And then there’s the fine points of chart-reading.  What does the little “H” in a circle in the corner of the VOR information box on a chart mean?  (HIWAS service available.)  And the Acronyms go on….and on…. until you get to the final CIGARS (controls, instruments, gas, attitude, run-up, safety before take-off) and finally you can get back in the sky.

The FAA has a continuous education programs called WINGS and it’s a fine service.  On tap for today, amd, we’ll see how much of the following I get through to bag WINGS basic:

From the Commercial Pilot Practical Test Standards for Airplane

  1. Area of Operation IV, Task A: Normal and Crosswind Takeoff and Climb
  2. Area of Operation IV, Task B: Normal and Crosswind Approach and Landing
  3. Area of Operation IV, Task F: Short-Field Approach and Landing
  4. Area of Operation IV, Task K: Power-Off 180º Accuracy Approach and Landing
  5. Area of Operation IV, Task L: Go-Around/Rejected Landing

Successful completion of an Instrument Proficiency Check in accordance with 14 CFR Part 61, section 57(d) [FAR 61.57(d)].

The Instrument Proficiency Check must comply with the requirements set forth in the currently approved Instrument Rating Practical Test Standard, FAA-S-8081-4. The Rating Task Table in that publication lists the minimum tasks required.

From the Private Pilot Practical Test Standards for Airplane

  1. Area of Operation II, Task A: Preflight Inspection
  2. Area of Operation II, Task D: Taxiing

  3. Area of Operation III, Task A: Radio Communications and ATC Light Signals

  4. Area of Operation III, Task B: Traffic Patterns

  5. Area of Operation III, Task C: Airport, Runway, and Taxiway Signs, Markings, and Lighting

  6. Area of Operation IV, Task E: Short-Field Takeoff and Maximum Performance Climb

As luck would have it, there’s not going to be much of a crosswind this morning, but I might propose that I “slip” the airplane in, instead of using flaps, and then straighten out just before landing.  That’s how flying was done in the old days:  By dipping one wing (say the right) while applying opposite rudder (left in this case), the airplane flies “sideways.”  Since more frontal area is presented, the airplane tends to lose altitude…fast! 

When you land in a crosswind, the process is about exactly opposite.  You make your approach normally (with flaps if needed) and you’ll be flying a crab angle in order to track over the ground on the runway heading while the wind is trying to blow you off course.

Once you get the feel of the correct crab angle, you simply fly this all the way down to the ground until you  are just about to touch down.  Holding the nose at the proper attitude (up) you apply enough “slip” so that the airplane “straightens out” and lines straight ahead onto the runway center line.  As speed comes down (and the nose wheel drops, you increase aileron down (on the into the wind side, right in this case) and smoothly slow the airplane.

If the wind is from the right (pushing you to the left), you slip with the right wing going down and the left rudder pedal.  For wind from the left, (pushing you right) the left wing does down and in goes right rudder.

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Markets and Diazepam

Question:

What does dream work, a retired Air Force Lt. Colonel, technologies that predict the future, Ures truly, the Republican wins Tuesday, and Diazepam all have in common?

Let me answer in reverse order.

1.  Diazepam is?

A drug.  And, says Wikipedia: “It is commonly used to treat a wide range of conditions, including anxiety, panic attacks, insomnia, seizures (including status epilepticus), muscle spasms (such as in tetanus cases), restless legs syndrome, alcohol withdrawal, benzodiazepine withdrawal, opiate withdrawal syndrome and Ménière’s disease.”

Remember what comes with alcohol withdrawal (besides high blood pressure and high pulse rates)?  Delirium Tremens. 

Delirium tremens (Latin for “shaking frenzy”, also referred to as DTs, “the horrors”, “the bottleache”, “quart mania”, “ork orks”, “gallon distemper”, “barrel fever”,”the shakes”, or “the fear”) is an acute episode of delirium that is usually caused by withdrawal from alcohol, first described in 1813”

Notice the abbreviation here because it is totally key:  DT.

2.  The Republican win the this week’s election has (so far) failed to power markets through key technical resistance.  And despite some gains here and there, the problem persists with the futures looking flat to down a bit this morning.

Someone beside us may be figuring out the Washington impact problem:  Good because it means stability, but that also means nothing will get done.  Do the words “delicious poison” make sense?

3.  Ures truly has been writing for a while about what an interesting technical formation it would be if the markets did a “double top” in here.

4.  And I’ve been deeply involved in various technologies that purport to look into the future and some that are actually hitting way above early approaches.  And in fact, one email on point that arrived overnight was?

Got my new model set up and testing it out. It appears that Friday will be a down day in the markets (Not a big down, but just regular old down.

Actually to be more exact, we have a 73% chance that the average on the DJIA for Thurs/Fri/Mon will be lower than the average for today, yesterday, and 2 days ago.

The model was improved by dampening the extraneous ups and downs by using a 3-day average. Let’s see how it works!

5.  And that email came from the retired USAF Lt. Col fellow (Chris McCleary) who took over the www.nationaldreamcenter.com project from us back in April and has not only “moved the ball down field” but has scored multiple touchdowns including the terrorism heads-up about Dallas (and then secondarily) Houston and that was just a couple of weeks before springing into reality as what?

The Ebola scare in Dallas and Houston.

And so the point of this morning is that when DT/Double Top begins to show up in Dreams (along with references to “butterfly” which may have been just propagation leakage from Heidi Klum’s dress-up) I would be negligent if I failed to mention that a market decline from here, picking up speed into December, would be technical graceful, supported by Chris’ work at the Dream Center which uses our word-frequency analytics coded by Grady at www.nostracodeus.com.

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