TL;DR: Full Moon theory is probably wrong but we have a future plot.  Yeah, Russiagate was a Lie, Comey.  And our chess game with the Future out many moves. Markets and  the “Lunarcy of ’29” Ask a beat cop, people in the ER or the EMTs hauling the inbound; they will all mention Full Moons.  … Read More

TL;DR: Markets braced on durables, GDP, and UI filings with gold near $3,800, silver $46, BTC $111.5K. My consigliere’s dark dart toss runs from Israel–Iran nukes to a 2029 bio-war, stitched to financial collapse. Out here, even a dead cat vanished by vultures — a reminder the Presence still cleans up when it must. Durable … Read More

Two tracks this morning: The Secret Service telecom bust in NYC and the possibility of a sleight of hand with a Crypto-based Dollar reset.  All very important stuff – and it comes on a bank settlement day with a Treasury series auction mid morning. Toss in our usual odd quip here and there and 23-charts … Read More

TL;DR:  When crypto came along, we took a pass realizing it was a “purebred fiat.”  Now, open “Currency Wars” threaten. They may be a road to war. Meanwhile, Fannie and Freddie are singing the blues as delinquencies scream higher.  And what makes a great manager? building or Maintaining? Currency War Arriving Back when crypto was new … Read More

TL;DR:  The world isn’t ending – yet. But the CFNAI is out and the yammer Fed Head circuit is buzzing. Markets aren’t happy. Although we’re amazed the cyberattacks on airports is playing as a non-event. World is “on the high board” and ready for its swan die – we recommend prepping while you can. Now … Read More

TL;DR:  Pappy was always a fan of late September/October travel.  Fall colors were peaking, ankle-biters imprisoned in classrooms, gas prices down from summer.  Time of the year when the tools need a break and the head needs an airing out… School’s Out Time My late father, being a fire officer, had a regular vacation, sure.  … Read More

In the ChartPack today some very bad news for Bulls.  There is a simple way to compare the recent run of the markets in this “Replaying 1929” period. Not only will we run those numbers for you – and call of the laggard – but we will also talk about why a soft hyperinflation probably … Read More

TL;DR:  Yawner in the pre-open as markets recalibrate post-Fed. The Future is challenging to sketch in, and a four-seasons earthquake near Japan overnight. Markets Hit Snooze This is really a “now what?” “Alexa: set snooze alarm for Monday…” Clickiocity We can’t get too worked up over the Kimmel story.  But, related, we see this as … Read More

TL;DR: A new paper redefining what Crypto means has just been published, with staggering implications for siloed economic thinking. Among them: local “Truth” in economics may drive cyclicity. Philly Fed numbers and Unemployment filings are out, and while not 3I/ATLAS, October still looks set to “rock” the world. Crypto & Investing in the Post-Truth World … Read More

Just in: “In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4?1/4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee … Read More

On Human Use of Cognitive Prosthetics.  Since we did our comprehensive pre-Fed discussion in the Sunday special edition (here), we give away the first part of my newest thinking and writing adventure this morning.  What’s it about? What if the tools we use every day—books, language, coffee, meditation, even AI—aren’t just conveniences, but actual mind … Read More

TL;DR:  New Retail Sales figures have just been reported this day-before FOMC. Questions arise on Trans links to the Kirk killing.  And in health and anti-aging research lard beat EVOO (Extra Virgin Olive Oil) hints research. Retail Before Fed Just out: “Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S. retail and … Read More

Actually, this matters a great deal with the Fed meeting this week.  From the NY Fed as part of their Survey of Consumer Expectations Series: SCE HOUSEHOLD SPENDING SURVEY August Survey: Overall Household Spending Growth Ticks Down; Large Purchases Increase The median reported year-over-year increase in monthly nominal household spending declined to 4.1 percent in August … Read More