Sometimes, history can help scale our “worst case” thinking.  In one of our “mainly charts” reports today, we look at (semi-recent) economic history and ask how bright are America’s enemies? The question is not moot:  Russia has outlined a number of “deal points” for standing down on their side of the Ukraine border. Since the … Read More

Thank God it’s Friday – before Christmas.  Just time to order yet-another tool slut delight. Since I have a fair bit of construction planned this winter, I decided to order a 3-foot impact driver drill-bit extension.  Deal on these is you can add or remove deck screws without bending over.  Yeah…old man workstyle.  Should have … Read More

Nothing-Burger Fed Decision.  But a nothing-burger is just what the shills were looking for.  Dow up 383 and change as a result and showing +212 early this morning.  Here’s the part of the Fed decision driving it: “In light of inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market, the Committee decided to reduce … Read More

With some of the big issues out of the way, the rest of 2022’s drivers can be lined up and then some ideas tabled.   As always, UrbanSurvival and Peoplenomics are not about “making the most” but instead about “losing the least” as complexity hits the wall. This morning, we eye things like communications, transportation, and … Read More

Another Model appears! No, you perv, not the sort with staples in her midriff.  No, this is the kind that says things like “=’D-Data’!B808” and whispers sweet inferences like “=(AVERAGE(B723:B808))-B808” to our never-ending delight. This’ll take a minute to explain, so slurp-along and follow.  This is possibly useful with the Fed meeting today and announcement … Read More

Yes, in a sense, it’s a quiet one this morning.  Fine time to practice short column writing. But tomorrow will be bigger.  Be patient. That’s because that’s when the Federal Reserve will be holding it’s FOMC meeting and Wednesday we will get a sense of how much taper to expect and how quickly. There’s other … Read More

This being Rum Sunday and all, I’ve done a couple of reports recently on the use of drones in a prepping and survival situation. In these, I have extoled the virtues of drones, even the cheapie $99 sort that I learned to fly on: an internet “deal” which worked out well. With a drone, a … Read More

Simplified communication reflects a tribe of simpletons is our origin point this morning.  Because – importantly – big thoughts with important nuances may not be easily abbreviated. The urge to abbreviate is driven by multiple factors, too:  time, laziness, and “normed down convention.”  Thing is, the “idea simplification business” carries many hidden risks.  Not the … Read More

Once again – I do this every month, or so – I am promising shorter columns because there is so much to do around here. To the top of the inbox, post haste! Inflation Data As we explained previously, when the economy is skittering along the effective lower bound (of interest rates) it’s not hard … Read More

There are seldom days when the Collisions of Complexity becomes clearer.  Because we find ourselves, at click-time, staring into the abyss of the bad movie Global War trailer as early as this weekend. Important to understand (Big Picture stuff here) how contradictions can be useful in several ways, during times like these.  Three examples: In oratory … Read More

A focus on the Environment today following our outlooks for the basics of food, water, and shelter.  These were in the first part of our Annual Forecast series. Our topic didn’t rate its own column in previous years.  But with energy, population, pandemic/plandemics about, more climate craziness, well there are limits approaching quickly. The differences … Read More

We have some new data to go over:  International Trade and Productivity in a sec, but before we launch, let’s consider some things: Russia is still moving arms into position opposite Ukraine. China is expanding into the Atlantic, may have container missiles, and Taiwan is as good as gone, as we see it. Then we … Read More

Honestly, very little has changed in the past 24-hours since our last Big Picture of coming events. Russia and the West are pouring war materiel into Eastern Europe. China is still whipping up anti-American sentiment. Markets are getting worried at a deep core level. And above all, 2022-2024 is shaping up as a period when … Read More