Other Than Housing

Which will be out in a few minutes, there’s not too much going on.  Just an important definitional change in markets.  Talking about…

Crooking an Index?

In a rather stunning development, the folks who write up the Dow Industrial index are about to make it very hard for rational long-term thinkers to make decisions.  

As the Dallas News put it in their headline:  “Dow boots Exxon Mobil from blue chip club in stunning ‘out with energy and in with cloud’ shake-up — Pfizer and Raytheon Technologies also are being removed from the 124-year-old market gauge..

Pay attention here: Salesforce, Amgen, and Honeywell will be replacing Exxon Mobil, Pfizer, and Raytheon on August 31, 2020. Amgen becomes the sixth company traded on the NASDAQ to be part of the Dow.

This is one of the most vexing things to me about stock indices:  If you can toss out companies that are not growing fast enough, then is the stock average really a fair representation of what’s going in America overall?  (No, obviously not!)

Which is why our charts over on the Peoplenomics side of the house are based on huge numbers of stocks, not a cherry-pick list of business thoroughbreds.  Especially when the slowest of the “runners” is periodically (like three next Monday) being sent to the glue factory.

Storming Ashore?  Not Quite…

The weather in the Gulf of Mexico – besides setting up a landfall mess – may be a firming-factor in the price of oil.  Some offshore production may be shut-in for a few days.

As for the two storms?  Marco’s pretty much flamed out, not going much of anywhere, and winds are down to the 30 MPH range:

Laura, on the other hand, will dump about 2-inches of rain on us here at the ranch over the next three days:

There’s still some uncertainty about how much rain will fall in the Houston through Beaumont area.  About all we can do is “range it in.”  Between an umbrella and a jon boat.

Another “Who Cares?” Convention

Dueling soundbites and substance-free generalizations, refried jingoisms on the side.  That’s how we characterize the limp GOP convention.  Sure, lots of hype.  But, when comes down to it, a few headlines is all it warrants because if you really cared, you would have watched it.

The more-liberal-than-ideal NPR view shines through in “4 Takeaways From The 1st Night Of The Republican National Convention.”  We binge-watched something else.

Still Dying

Although the MaybeCanes and political Insanity were pushing the CV-19 stories off the front pages, our models are still grim in the longer term.  24-million cases globally this week seems a safe bet and 25-million next.  US death count is up to 177,284.

Good news is our outlook for the balance of the year is tapering down.  That’s because the rate-of-change will come down because we’re seeing a real decline in the daily case chart on the Johns Hopkin’s site:

This doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods – yet – but if cases don’t begin to rise quickly in the next 60-days, there’s this carrot-top guy who’s going to claim he was right on virus AND economic matters come poll time.

Shake in a side of Durham to spice things up and Slow Joe has a problem.

Insurrection Notes

The OreGoons are still at it: Portland police move in quickly, declare riot as fires set outside union headquarters: Key takeaways.

No doubt, the shooting of a black man in Wisconsin will be investigated. The Jacob Blake case (he’s in stable condition) is making worldwide headlines.  But, I’m perplexed trying to understand how driving businesses out with rioting violence fixes anything? Cars Lit on Fire Amid Looting in Kenosha again, though.

Liar, liar, pants on…Dept:  “Mayor Lori Lightfoot pledged $10 million to businesses damaged by looting. The city paid out far less, records show.”  People have to be crazy (or “touched”) to live in cities where commies and socialists are doing their best to end law and order.  Which is why we live in an open-carry state.

In Chicago: Police Search For Dozens Of People In Specific Looting Incidents On Michigan Avenue, Weed Street.  26-still at large, if I’m following it…

Out west, looting around forest fires is now a new “feature” of life as; “‘A lot of looting,’ eight arrests as California wildfires rage, Santa Cruz sheriff says.”

Now the Bad News

My  consigliere (in reality, head of our legal team and a fix ex-prosecutor, tax attorney with extreme creds) tells me this is all part of a trend and in his models, this is only the start.  Expect lawlessness to increase and continue into at least 2022, he advised me in a call Monday.

“It’s all part of that 54.6-year cycle,” he explained.

“Let me give you some examples of 55-years ago: 1964 – Harlem race riot, 1964 – Rochester race riot, and 1965 – Watts riots in L.A.  It was not just a U.S. thing, either.  It’s like the world goes crazy on a cyclical basis.  Because in that same period we had – again you can look at the list here –  there was the 1965 Mauritius race riots, and in Singapore, and in the East Pakistan riots and in Hong Kong there were 1966 riots, as well.

It’s an interesting point  and it gets back to a central question of ongoing research around here:  What is  causative  – what makes humans act crazy at certain times and not others?  Be skeptical of subtle energy sources, if you will, but there are many areas where this same kind of data can be pushed into cyclical bit buckets and its a rich area for discovery potential.

On the Threat Board

Good news on the food front?  Kind is the first food brand to commit to buying ‘bee-friendly’ almonds.;

We will have shelter data shortly with the Housing data.

Energy?” The big hit today may be this Forbes article: Southeastern U.S. Competitive Electricity Market Could Save $384 Billion, Spur Massive Clean Energy Growth, Create 400,000 New Jobs.  As a co-gen solar operator, I applaud the notion.

On the environment front, hadn’t thought too much about this before.  But...How detrimental is indoor cannabis cultivation to the environment?

Communications and CV-19 are strange bedfellows.  But, with cruise lines dying on the vine due to “19” takes balls of steel to wade into putting money on the high seas.  As seen in Orbcomm, AAC Clyde, Saab to build maritime communications cubesat, mull constellation.  Tale end of CV-19 and early signs of recovery in the cruise industry would be useful.

Likewise, CV-19 spills into feature sets in coming generations of autos. COVID-19 Pandemic Impact on Global Heads-up Display (HUD) Market in the Transportation Sector 2020-2024 | Technavio.

And in Finance, Smith & Wesson Shuffles Finance Chiefs Amid Boom in Gun Sales.  Is rising tensions creating too much of a good thing (sales) in arms?

Half hour to Housing data and Dow futures (whatever  those are now) are +167.

Write when you get rich,


27 thoughts on “Other Than Housing”

  1. “’m perplexed trying to understand how driving businesses out with rioting violence fixes anything?”

    It doesn’t.. and since it has been suggested that certain multi-billionaires are behind these organized movements makes question why..
    I have a few guesses.. all about herding the population in the direction to be totally controlled..and to eliminate some through illness.. but who knows for sure..
    I visited with one that said oh the businesses are owned by these groups and I don’t care about them.. excuse me.. the alternative is many miles away.. because those small businesses won’t be coming back.. With Rodney King riots.. besides driving a wedge between groups.. the small merchants left the neighborhoods.. last year there was someone on the news complaining that they had to drive clear across town to buy something and that something should be done.. LOL what a drooler.. you chased them away.. stole their merchandise raped the guys daughter and wife beat up him and his son.. and now you question why he doesn’t want to do business in your neighborhood.. GMAFB

      • Crap, you beat me to it. I was being lazy.

        The part in there where she talks about the riots and the fires in, Wisconsin?, occurring all along a mile or more of road that looks as if it was intended to be that way so certain investors can go in, buy it up on the cheap and renovate the area is an interesting claim. Follow the money.

  2. Mid 1960’s was the start of Solar Cycle 20. Solar cycle related to the current widespread mental illness? Who knows…
    Keep your powder dry, stay away from crowds, wash your hands and stay off my lawn!

  3. this is 3 day old news but good, surprise surprise, but happy. Denver cracks down on riot/protest, About is about time we had some positive news
    “What we experienced last night was not a protest. It was anarchy,” Denver Director of Public Safety Murphy Robinson said. “I want these anarchists to hear me clearly and loudly that this will not be tolerated in our city. You are not welcome here. If you choose to come back to Denver, Colorado, to incite anarchy, destruction and violence, I can assure you — you will be met with every tool in our disposal, from law and policy, that we can use to stop [it].”

    • The idiot mayor and our little dictator Polis both decided that maybe We the People are waking up to their lies and incompetence. (Course, I’ve known about it my entire life.) Especially after the attack on little old ladies and men at a pro-police rally by BLM and Antifa. If the past is prelude and the cycles are aligned, Trump will win. The anger is at a boil. November is coming. They will reap the whirlwind.

  4. As always, US citizens will be left holding the bag and need to use their private firearms for protection. Police in the donut shops and the military sequestered on their large and comfortable bases. Joe P. Q citizen like myself armed and using military training to defend my home and neighborhood. That’s America.

  5. I wouldn’t connect the looting to a 54 year cycle. What’s happening is a sea change. The majority of citizens have nothing vested except playing the tax donkey role.

    In Detroit, as example, the citizens got ripped off on an education. Imagine being 30, 35 and you cant read.

    “Only 7 percent of students in the Detroit Public Schools Community District can read at or above grade level. Nearly half of all adults in Detroit are functionally illiterate meaning they cannot read their child a bedtime story even if they had a book and wanted to read to them. ”

    – Detroit News

    The teachers lawfully accursed the pensions and skipped town. We’re left holding the bag, illiterates. The little illiterates grow up to be frustrated adults. We have no recourse.

    • Which is just like hearing that some students only eat what is at school lunch today…

      Where. Are. The. Parents.

      All of my kids could read before they entered school. 4 year old “literates”. All it takes is a little time at the public library, and each night before bed do a little reading with them.

      I know it’s too late when these people are 30, but their parents, if they could read, really let the kids down by assuming the schools would teach them a thing. The parents are first and foremost responsible for literacy, wiping one’s ass, eating dinner, etc. Why put that all onto the schools as if they were responsible for all that? The schools are not responsible for anything. As soon as you think otherwise, just flush your kids and grandkids down the drain.

      • https://americanlunchroom.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/dscn0540.jpg?w=595


        Dam kids are so picky… LOL.. we went to one of the eat with the grandkids at school.. they gave us one hot dog three french fries a carton of milk and four slices of an apple.. for five bucks.. LOL
        the parents are all busy.. which is also why the push for getting the schools back open.. day care has gone up in price and there aren’t any new admits.. so you have what you have and school is nothing more than a baby sitter while mom and dad go to work.. Most people don’t make enough to pay daycare.. the teller at the bank makes a couple of bucks a week the rest goes for daycare and healthcare and transportation costs.. some parents rely on social programs some work the extra hours to make it..
        and the kicker is.. it hasn’t gotten bad yet..

    • Heck half of the college grads can not read the paper and comprehend what it says. Our students see school as a social club the rest are dodging bullets and gang members.
      Say what you will about china or russia.. students are expected to learn or be placed.

    • “The little illiterates grow up to be frustrated adults.”

      Well said Steve. We can see a whole lot of them burning, looting and tearing down statues on the streets of America today.

      Too late. The horse is out of the barn.

    • We purposely took away industrial pride. When I was little you felt at home at your parents nm place of employment. Many schools did tours .. company picnics xmas parties.. a feeling of wellbeing..your boss had your back.
      Walk the once proud streets of Detroit the industry capital of the USA..
      Theres a sense of dread.the cityscapes one of the city that has been engulfed in a horrible war..We did it so that a very few could profit..
      I’m pretty sure that they didn’t anticipate once the future consequences of their actions. The loss of community spirit. The loss of tax revenue. The loss of pride..

  6. George

    “As seen in Orbcomm, AAC Clyde, Saab to build maritime communications cubesat, mull constellation.”

    With large constellations of satellites being put into orbit it’s possible that observational astronomy will be very limited if not extinct.

    There needs to be some international regulation on this problem. Who owns the visible sky? Mankind or the corporations?

    How many of us have actually seen a night sky ablaze with stars?

    Not many!

  7. While California is getting the brunt of the fire news, I just got back from a family visit to our place in Colorado where there are fires and horrible air quality from Denver to Boulder and into the front range. We had to travel nearly 90 miles west deep into the Rockies to escape it. While we were there, I noticed tons of Instagram posts from my California friends showing video the lighting storm in California. For those of you not familiar with Coastal California weather, lightening is a rare occurrence. In the 22 years I have lived here, I have maybe witnessed lightening 4 times. From the video I saw, that storm however, was reminiscent of the types of lightening storms I grew up with in the Midwest. Since then, the weather has been eerily humid, hot and even the coastal fog has a warm feel to it. The fires and air quality from the fires here add to the misery. When I was in Denver, I couldn’t wait to escape the smell of smoke…only to return home and live it again.

    Those fires were caused by a dry lightening storm which lasted several hours and resulted in over 12,000 strikes and ignited over 600 fires…making this seasons fires the worst in history. Add the hurricanes, pandemic, economy, unemployment, riots, tension and the Sh*% show that will be the election and all the t-shirts and slogans of a ” 2020 vision quest” that sold robustly in the first quarter of this year, have turned into a 2020 blurred vision nightmare. I saw a meme yesterday with certain numbers amorphously talking…The first number was the number 13 saying “I am the Unluckiest number!” The number 666 said, ” No I am the unluckiest number:”, the last number 2020, in bold caps says…”Really Bitches?

    Pretty much sums it up.

    About the Southeastern Solar project. It’s about time. Renewable, clean energy jobs out pace fossil fuel jobs. According to E2…

    The renewable energy industry has become a major U.S. employer. E2’s recent Clean Jobs America report found nearly 3.3 million Americans working in clean energy – outnumbering fossil fuel workers by 3-to-1.

    Nearly 335,000 people work in the solar industry and more than 111,000 work in the wind industry, compared to 211,000 working in coal mining or other fossil fuel extraction. Clean energy employment grew 3.6% in 2018, adding 110,000 net new jobs (4.2% of all jobs added nationally in 2018), and employers expect 6% job growth in 2019.

    So…,why do we fight clean energy? It’s this very technology that can help us get out of this economic mess we are in. It;’s an emerging market that will add jobs exponentially over the next several decades. It’;s science folks. Embrace it!!! And as an added bonus…get paid for it.

    I am not a climate change guy,, but I am an active steward of this 3rd rock from the sun. I believe in the air we breathe, the land we cultivate and the water we drink should be balanced and renewable. Getting away from fossil fuels, soil nutrient stripping agriculture practices and poor water management leads to a better living experience. And I believe the awful way we treat this planet creates a Petri dish for viruses, and eventually pandemics. Remember folks, Earth is a living, breathing intertwined organism. We are guests on earth, and we are treating our host with unruly disrespect. She is fighting back.

  8. “because if you really cared, you would have watched it.”

    I really care, because I really care whether my grandkids will wear mortarboards or linked belts, have a life expectancy of 93 or 23, and whether they’ll dance or goose-step down the street.

    However, unless someone is paying me 5-figures to do so, I don’t (and won’t) watch political conventions or the things they call “debates,” which are in reality rolling political ads for the candidates… ‘Takes 5 minutes to read the Cliff’s Notes version the day after and not being actionable by me, probably doesn’t justify sinking any more time than that, into…

  9. “No doubt, the shooting of a black man in Wisconsin will be investigated. The Jacob Blake case (he’s in stable condition) is making worldwide headlines.”

    That whole thing in Kenosha is odd: I watched the convenient video several times. I’m trying to figure out how a dude who’s been apprehended (cops have their guns on him) isn’t handcuffed, and is allowed to walk to his car and nose into it. I’m also wondering how he got shot 7 times at point-blank range yet is expected to recover (which means the police rounds didn’t terminally rearrange his internals, which to anyone who’s seen a police round hit ballistic gel, seems terribly odd…) He may have been reaching for a weapon (or an ID, or a cigarette, or…) but should have been restrained and immobilized before he had the opportunity to do so. Kenosha lies between Chicago and Milwaukee and makes a nice sub-suburban place to live for people who work in either — IOW the Kenosha Police have probably had advanced training and are not “bumpkinesque” so… How did ol’ Jake-in-custody make it into his car, and why did the po-po not take action before he did?

  10. My ex-wife and I are now best friends. We also live 2100 miles apart. We discovered during our marriage that no matter one’s feelings, some people are simply not designed to live in constant close proximity. CV-19 caused a LOT of people to live in constant close proximity — I’m guessing not a cause, but a trigger, as were shortages and the low-level (but constant) terror of the virus itself. Lump that in with an opportunistic Nazi who’s waiting for an excuse to loose his dogs, and the convenient on-camera murder of George Floyd as an excuse, and you’ve got one o’ them “powder keg, meet Mr. Blowtorch” moments.

    Speaking of opportunistic Nazis, Open Society and a bunch of other NGOs, most owned or influenced by Soros, are currently sponsoring a coup d’etat in Belarus, but nobody in the USofA has heard about it because the starched sleeve and kabuki shows are sucking up all “news” and punditry air-time.

    I suggest the English-language version of any of the Minsk dailies or an English-friendly daily from Kiev, Warsaw, or Moscow, for the curious, and when you do, note how similar their plight to our current “social unrest.” It’s almost like it was scripted…

  11. LOOB could write an encyclopedia on home food storage and preparation. When he can’t scrounge canning supplies, it is extremely worrisome.

    I’m seeing mail order food storage-related supplies with anywhere from 2 week to 12 week posted shipping delays. 12 weeks gets us to Thanksgiving.

    MRE Depot was shipping promptly a month or so back. They have #2.5 & #10 cans of basics.

    Good luck finding a grain mill, anywhere. Why would anyone really need a grain mill? Answer: It extends your ability to glean foods from sources you would not normally be able to make use of. It’s about being able to adapt to changing conditions.

    Having the ability to cook with electricity, wood, gasoline, kerosene etc. allows you to reconfigure for changing energy sources.

    I’m still trying to decide when to buy garden seed for next year.

    And again, whatever your plans are for the upcoming crazy season, you will want to have your plan and supplies firmed up by mid-September.

    • “I’m still trying to decide when to buy garden seed for next year.”

      N…. I am ordering mine already…I don’t usually order my seeds till january or february.. last year I went to order the middle of february and they were already sold out of a lot of them..

      My friend says Minipacks are already six months out.. you can get the retort bags so far.. I got enough to last three years..My tomatoes went well.. I remember having to beat grain with a rock in an old cast iron pan.. it sucked.. having a grain mill is not only wise but saves you from the embarrassment of beating grain in a cast iron pan with a rock to..
      (my best and worst year of my life..) I just had a grand daughter ask me how to make paper again LOL.. so I am going to make her a deckle four foot long and four inches wide.. get a paper trough made up.. so they can get some use out of the junk mail..
      something else you might want to consider for the shelf.. do you have a food pellet maker. or dog bone molds.. anyone having a cat or dog that eats dried cat food or dog food.. should have one.. for pennies you can make and dry your own dog and cat food..
      I went into Sams and Walmart yesterday.. and just wandered the isles to see what there was.. a lot of the stuff on the september grocery list is not available.. some things were available that were not but I will be needing.. visited with the manager for a bit.( we are old friends) his response was get what you can.. its becoming increasingly hard to get things now.. and with the crop losses.I was always being razzed about having a little extra.. everyone thought I was nuts… now they are asking me for advice.. my wife got on board the time when we went a year without an income.. it was so hard.. but not food wise.. we had the food to get by with..
      this time around it is going to be much worse..https://youtu.be/27oAo8vyV0A
      a regular chamber sealer will not work. you have to have one that has that extra punch .. mine had a stranger coil put in it.. and an extra heavy seal bar.. I have three sealers that I love.. the snorkle is the favorite.. I use that one to seal up my jars.. if you decide to go retort.. one important tip.. stack the bags tight and upright.. the reason.. they expand while pressure canning and the side seams will split.. those you have to use right away.. I use a souse vide bag holder in mine.. I did several bags of tomatoes the other day.. it was the first time I had ever done a vegitable.. I usually only do meats.. https://youtu.be/RUkln2Qd_zo
      the bags come in three sizes four eight and sixteen ounces.. do not overfill the bags..
      carp canned with olive oil is just like tuna fish.. go by the ball canning guide..
      canning in can’s.. is a lot of fun to.. easy to do .. but takes up more room.. so I have been doing more with the retort..
      they are using the small die in that video for making dog food.. more of cat or fish food size.. the pellet grinder comes with three of the most common sizes.. the dog food has to dry.. spread it out on your drying table.. ( a screen rack so air can flow around it) and let it dry takes about a day.. then bag it up.. our last dog had some allergy issues.. and the dog food for that was so expensive that it would break the bank of just about anyone.. so we made our own..

    • canning lids are worth gold prices right now and not available.. you might want to try fermenting your vegetables..my mother did that and they turned out pretty good.. I make sour kraut but never tried doing tomatoes or beans.. I do like pickled beans though.. so I am going to try it.. at the local merchant they had fermenting lids.. and kits. no canning lids.. and on the website they were several weeks out.. the local merchant said they were told they could possibly see some by the end of September.. they have a semi load of them ordered but what they go was one case.. my wine is ready to bottle.. so I am excited.. that will be nice..
      ON the Covid issue.. I got a call from an old coworker night before last.. her sister wasn’t feeling well .. she told my coworker that she was going to take the night off.. dam the employer he could go to hell.. she was not feeling good a cold from hell..
      the next morning my friend decided to run over to her sisters to give her hell and tell her what a lazy bum she was and to get her ass back to work.. LOL…. when she got there.. there wasn’t an answer at the door.. so she went in.. her sister had passed on during the night.. right where she was at when she left the day before.. Now she is sicker than hell.. with the cold or flu from hell.. I asked are you going to go get tested.. NOPE.. I can’t miss work..
      they both work healthcare…I asked her if she had her plans in place.. she is going to be cremated..

    • “Why would anyone really need a grain mill?”

      Get an oil extruder to.. I have two one hand crank and one that’s fill it and go. Oil for lamps and if you drive diesel, cooking etc..plus if your going to make dog food or corn meal etc. Then you get the best of both worlds.. and they aren’t that expensive.. when shtf you can trade cooking oil or alcohol..
      Everything my wife thought I was nuts learning how to do has come in useful..

  12. People are STUPID! Honolulu goes full lockdown… again!
    Back in March, after the first lockdown, Hawaii had the lowest COVID count in the nation.  Then people got stupid and ‘celebrated’.  Numbers over 200-plus daily from Honolulu have finally reached crisis point where ambulances are being diverted from some medical facilities.  The Mayor today announced a return to full lockdown for Honolulu and Oahu island starting Thursday, for two weeks.   Essential businesses only.  Stay at home orders. This will put the death nail in the remaining few small businesses.  City plans 5,000 tests daily… for free… if you suspect infection, get tested.  Health dept. is ramping up to 500 contact tracers to handle the load.
    This time they are getting serious.  A Waikiki hotel with 130 rooms has been designated an official quarantine site, administered by the Dept. of Health, for quarantine of visitors and others with no place to go.  One major homeless service center is already a homeless quarantine center.  Lawbreakers will be issued a summons for a court appearance in addition to heavy fines.  Not just a ticket… you will get a criminal record.   Oh, yeah… the ‘correctional facility’ is heavily infected among the inmates and staff already, too.  They let the nonviolent & clean inmates go release.
    When the lockdown is lifted, it will be in slow phases to prevent crowd gatherings in public places.
    Here on my Big Island, the health dept is tracking 56 active cases, and our numbers are single digit daily.  But the warnings from Honolulu are clear.  Don’t get careless.  Wear your mask, and avoid gatherings or crowds.

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