Which will be out in a few minutes, there’s not too much going on. Just an important definitional change in markets. Talking about…
Crooking an Index?
In a rather stunning development, the folks who write up the Dow Industrial index are about to make it very hard for rational long-term thinkers to make decisions.
As the Dallas News put it in their headline: “Dow boots Exxon Mobil from blue chip club in stunning ‘out with energy and in with cloud’ shake-up — Pfizer and Raytheon Technologies also are being removed from the 124-year-old market gauge..”
Pay attention here: Salesforce, Amgen, and Honeywell will be replacing Exxon Mobil, Pfizer, and Raytheon on August 31, 2020. Amgen becomes the sixth company traded on the NASDAQ to be part of the Dow.
This is one of the most vexing things to me about stock indices: If you can toss out companies that are not growing fast enough, then is the stock average really a fair representation of what’s going in America overall? (No, obviously not!)
Which is why our charts over on the Peoplenomics side of the house are based on huge numbers of stocks, not a cherry-pick list of business thoroughbreds. Especially when the slowest of the “runners” is periodically (like three next Monday) being sent to the glue factory.
Storming Ashore? Not Quite…
The weather in the Gulf of Mexico – besides setting up a landfall mess – may be a firming-factor in the price of oil. Some offshore production may be shut-in for a few days.
As for the two storms? Marco’s pretty much flamed out, not going much of anywhere, and winds are down to the 30 MPH range:
Laura, on the other hand, will dump about 2-inches of rain on us here at the ranch over the next three days:
There’s still some uncertainty about how much rain will fall in the Houston through Beaumont area. About all we can do is “range it in.” Between an umbrella and a jon boat.
Another “Who Cares?” Convention
Dueling soundbites and substance-free generalizations, refried jingoisms on the side. That’s how we characterize the limp GOP convention. Sure, lots of hype. But, when comes down to it, a few headlines is all it warrants because if you really cared, you would have watched it.
The more-liberal-than-ideal NPR view shines through in “4 Takeaways From The 1st Night Of The Republican National Convention.” We binge-watched something else.
Although the MaybeCanes and political Insanity were pushing the CV-19 stories off the front pages, our models are still grim in the longer term. 24-million cases globally this week seems a safe bet and 25-million next. US death count is up to 177,284.
Good news is our outlook for the balance of the year is tapering down. That’s because the rate-of-change will come down because we’re seeing a real decline in the daily case chart on the Johns Hopkin’s site:
This doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods – yet – but if cases don’t begin to rise quickly in the next 60-days, there’s this carrot-top guy who’s going to claim he was right on virus AND economic matters come poll time.
Shake in a side of Durham to spice things up and Slow Joe has a problem.
The OreGoons are still at it: Portland police move in quickly, declare riot as fires set outside union headquarters: Key takeaways.
No doubt, the shooting of a black man in Wisconsin will be investigated. The Jacob Blake case (he’s in stable condition) is making worldwide headlines. But, I’m perplexed trying to understand how driving businesses out with rioting violence fixes anything? Cars Lit on Fire Amid Looting in Kenosha again, though.
Liar, liar, pants on…Dept: “Mayor Lori Lightfoot pledged $10 million to businesses damaged by looting. The city paid out far less, records show.” People have to be crazy (or “touched”) to live in cities where commies and socialists are doing their best to end law and order. Which is why we live in an open-carry state.
In Chicago: Police Search For Dozens Of People In Specific Looting Incidents On Michigan Avenue, Weed Street. 26-still at large, if I’m following it…
Out west, looting around forest fires is now a new “feature” of life as; “‘A lot of looting,’ eight arrests as California wildfires rage, Santa Cruz sheriff says.”
Now the Bad News
My consigliere (in reality, head of our legal team and a fix ex-prosecutor, tax attorney with extreme creds) tells me this is all part of a trend and in his models, this is only the start. Expect lawlessness to increase and continue into at least 2022, he advised me in a call Monday.
“It’s all part of that 54.6-year cycle,” he explained.
“Let me give you some examples of 55-years ago: 1964 – Harlem race riot, 1964 – Rochester race riot, and 1965 – Watts riots in L.A. It was not just a U.S. thing, either. It’s like the world goes crazy on a cyclical basis. Because in that same period we had – again you can look at the list here – there was the 1965 Mauritius race riots, and in Singapore, and in the East Pakistan riots and in Hong Kong there were 1966 riots, as well.”
It’s an interesting point and it gets back to a central question of ongoing research around here: What is causative – what makes humans act crazy at certain times and not others? Be skeptical of subtle energy sources, if you will, but there are many areas where this same kind of data can be pushed into cyclical bit buckets and its a rich area for discovery potential.
On the Threat Board
Good news on the food front? Kind is the first food brand to commit to buying ‘bee-friendly’ almonds.;
We will have shelter data shortly with the Housing data.
Energy?” The big hit today may be this Forbes article: Southeastern U.S. Competitive Electricity Market Could Save $384 Billion, Spur Massive Clean Energy Growth, Create 400,000 New Jobs. As a co-gen solar operator, I applaud the notion.
On the environment front, hadn’t thought too much about this before. But...How detrimental is indoor cannabis cultivation to the environment?
Communications and CV-19 are strange bedfellows. But, with cruise lines dying on the vine due to “19” takes balls of steel to wade into putting money on the high seas. As seen in Orbcomm, AAC Clyde, Saab to build maritime communications cubesat, mull constellation. Tale end of CV-19 and early signs of recovery in the cruise industry would be useful.
Likewise, CV-19 spills into feature sets in coming generations of autos. COVID-19 Pandemic Impact on Global Heads-up Display (HUD) Market in the Transportation Sector 2020-2024 | Technavio.
And in Finance, Smith & Wesson Shuffles Finance Chiefs Amid Boom in Gun Sales. Is rising tensions creating too much of a good thing (sales) in arms?
Half hour to Housing data and Dow futures (whatever those are now) are +167.
Write when you get rich,