Notionals, Tangibles, and Idiots Galore

First thing out of the chute this morning we have the ADP and Challenger Job Cut numbers to go over.  These are in advance of the Federal jobs report tomorrow morning…

Down in the detail of the press release, this caught our eye:

“The pace of downsizing in August rose to the third-highest total for the year, as U.S.-based employers announced plans to cut 38,472 jobs…”

The next number – this morning’s ADP report focuses more on job-creation:

“ADP National Employment Report : Private Sector Employment Increased by 163,000 Jobs in August.”

That number is somewhat in line with expectations, but what we look at in the ADP reports is the drill-down detail summary:

What’s on our mind is whether this is a “buy the rumor, sell the news” set-up for tomorrow’s federal data?  The Trump administration has gotten about as big a bump as possible  since-election with the Bull Market Run.  One of these days, it will end (all manic runs do).  What will matter then will be the “character of the decline.”

Declines happen on a semi-predictable basis:  There’s only so much elastic in price elasticity.  Seen from the technical perspective, the daily data suggests that a major top may have been put in and that we could now slide down over the course of Fall.

Even with today’s small buliishness (Futures up 25 on the Dow), we’d rate it as only a calf.  Mainly because of how the short-term data looks in our (admittedly odd) “aggregate” view of markets (using this morning’s futures pricing to gin-up a feel for the pre-open today):

What does this suggest?  As you can see (subscribers to Peoplenomics get the wave counts on such), we can make out five waves up (to the top of the bolder trend channel).  And, rather predictably, we have come down to just under the red 9-day moving average.

Remember, the place on the right where the line “levels-off” is a “tail on the data” – projecting it into the future so we get inspired to deeper thinking about what to expect next.

Today, we eye two possibilities.  The first is that the Bull Market really is over and we are beginning a long series of Elliott waves down that should end around Thanksgiving.  Having broken through the lighter colored, shorter-term trend) we could not be surprised to see a modest rally back up to the trend channel today by the close.

This is where things will get interesting.  Depending on how one draws the channels, there’s a case that we could get one more major upswing (again, to October/November) after some sideways to down action here.  The technical argument is that the Wave (v) didn’t hit top of trend channel and is should.  That’s no basis for going long, though.

The more likely move would be to rally up to the short-term trend today (and maybe tomorrow) as an  initial decline often does a “kiss and run” of the underside of a trend channel.  If this happens, it can be a useful Elliott wave indicator:  It can indicate that we have had a Wave 1 down, of some kind, and this is a 2 bounce that we’re starting for a day (to several).

What would logically follow, in this sequence of play, would be a further decline (perhaps 1.5 or 1.618 times the initial decline, then a bounce, and a final decline equal to the wav e 1 down or larger) and THAT would take out the bottom of the larger trend.  And THAT would mean a trip down to the January-February lows in short order.

Still, we don’t see it clearly enough to put piles of money on  either outcome.  Sometimes “money in the mattress” is the best policy.  It’s a slow lesson to learn, but there are THREE investment choices in all markets:  Long (betting the market will go up), Short (betting the market will tank) and CASH which means you don’t like catching knives in mid-air.

Both additional economic data and the posse du idiots in Washington will drive, on the surface to distract people.  Before we wander off to see how many clowns can get out of the Drudge Car at once, a note about a “character change” in the markets I noticed Wednesday.

If you follow market futures at FinViz with drilling, you may have noticed something odd in that there was a perfect split Wednesday between notionals (paper and made-up money taws) on the one hand and tangibles (things you can eat or otherwise consume) on the other.

It was back to a more normal spread this morning, but to me, it’s an important psychological indicator:  It tells us that the market – when spooked – is looking at what’s real.

Speaking of creative fictions, we should also acknowledge that even after a couple of months of hype (summertime madness?) the Bitcoins were down under $6.390 today.  With the wild parties of summer fading astern, perhaps some of the digitulip gypsters are ready for rehab.

We can only hope.

The argument is that Bitcoin is a more honest currency than the US dollar which got whacked again this week with an unexpected majors increase in the balance of trade deficit.  The problem is, do you trust digital me-too’ers any more than computer hackers making up money at home?  When Bitcoin’s been around for a few decades and expands a bit, we’ll reconsider.  But, real governments  (NOT Venezuela) are being most firm about Bitcoin being limited.  For example, Unhashed reported “Confiscation of Bitcoin ATMs in Russia Leads to Outcry from Local Operator.”

When cryptos come – backed by a major government, we’ll reconsider.  For now, it’s just a black-market with lots of press.  Almost of spin on speakeasies of the Roaring Twenties.

Will Corsi Bring His Books?

Dr. Jerome Corsi has been ordered to appear at the Mueller Fishing and Hookers exposition tomorrow.  Apparently because he knows Roger Stone.

But we think it would be really interesting is he were to bring some his books to read to the grand jury from, while reminding them that the Grand Jury was supposed to be a “people’s inquiry” into criminal matters.  Until the Just-Us department quashed the “runaway” (get to the real bottom of things) grand jury powers with revisions to Rule 6 in 1946.  See Roger Roots’ fine article at the Constitution Society website, where he argues “If It’s Not a Runaway, It’s Not a Real Grand Jury.”

Under law, the grand jury still has the power, but since the Just Us Department wields the power (Rule 6) the odds of a stand-up, independent Grand Jury foreperson are, regrettably. low.  This is how “a ham sandwich could get indicted.”

Notwithstanding, the Corsi reads could be very damn interesting:
Partners in Crime: The Clintons’ Scheme to Monetize the White House for Personal Profit, along with “The Deep State: The Fall of the Constitution and the Rise of a Shadow Government and “The Obama Nation: Leftist Politics and the Cult of Personality.”

Our expectation is Corsi will fully cooperate with the grand jury.  We hope so much so, in fact, that they won’t be able to shut him up.

We hope he can bring a book-bag.

The Larger (War) Perspective

I have this notion that the NY Times, by publishing an article purporting to be an op-ed from a “high ranking official” inside the Trump White House, may be giving comfort and aid to Russia in a non-apparent way.

Suppose, for a moment, that you had a strong US president and you were sitting in Moscow.  What would be more fun (preparing for your upcoming retake of Ukraine to re-establish the empire of Catherine the Great and be remembered as Vlad, the Tsarist) than planting such a piece in the Times?

You can see in the headlines how this dissent has taken seed and is being carefully watered by leftists in media and some who don’t grok the overarching strategic view.  Some headlines:

Vice President Pence Denies Writing Anonymous New York Times Op-Ed.

Searing Trump op-ed sets off wild guessing game on author.

We figure Putin’s laughing his ass off.  Biggest military games ion decades and the White House is offline with with rumors of a palace coup.  Masterful chess play, huh?

So, thanks to the NY Times piece, everyone in the White House is a suspect and if you were sitting in Moscow, trying to break down the West, what could be better?

Well, except it does get better.  Because the normally pro-government regulation of everything Left is suddenly defending Social Media.  And the reason?  It’s a critical tool for the left-wing Webolutionaries to make-up (manufactured) consensus.

Meantime, Trump wanting a strong Military and equality in trade is upsetting the world order.  China says has to retaliate if U.S. implements new tariffs is just part of the story.

The real gamesmanship pivots around eastern Europe and stories buried by the White House Leaks hysteria:  Even the highly credible Financial Times is now tracking “Ukraine: On the front line of Europe’s forgotten war.

Forgotten by the MSM, maybe…but not us.  We hold there is a reason for keeping America distracted  and it’s the new form of warfare afoot int he world that’s we’ll roll out in Peoplenomics next Wednesday.

Moron the ‘morrow…

16 thoughts on “Notionals, Tangibles, and Idiots Galore”

  1. FT is not credible for anything globalist related, in my opinion. It absolutely has an agenda which regularly comes out in its world news & editorials. Don’t fall for those salmon pink pages, it’s just another MSM tentacle!

    If SnP breaks out of this channel we’ve been in since July I think there’s a good possibility of seeing 2820ish near-term (& who knows what after that!) but if we hold here I’m looking at 3000 in the Autumn (Fall!), could be the blow off you’re after George. Today & tomorrow should be interesting.

    • Sober_ Colm: After all my fooling around wit 3x ETF’S this year, I think it is better to buy good quality stocks & hold. For example, I purchased AMD @ $17`because of its new AMD product line called the Radeon Instinct Vega series, which adds to the company’s growth prospects. These are chip-laden cards geared specifically toward the artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques used in today’s server systems (Blockchain). This, in my opinion, is a better way to make money. Good quality stocks with rising sales & income because they are pursuing growing markets successfully with their demand products their research has developed. Also it is much cheaper than Nvidia.

      • Re: Lont Term trades – for me, a falling tide lowers all boats. They may have good internals & be a good stock but if the market as a whole is overvalued, why not wait for a better price? At least you’ve done your work & know what you want to buy. Yes you might miss some upside in the short term (or even the long term) but PE ratios are just silly & the market needs to come back to some sort of reality (you would think!). In my opinion, patience will bring better prices & if it doesn’t, at least you prove you have patience (which is bloody tough). But I guess it’s all about the time horizon. If it’s dollars you don’t want to sure there’s always gold! Best of luck.

  2. So, wave theory is predicting (again) that the markets are poised to either go up or go down. Q.E.D.

    The NYT piece confirms the existence of a Deep State. Score one for the Trumpster.


  3. Regarding the NYT piece, (and I’m no fan of the Donald) I would only comment that anyone touting John McCain as any kind of “lodestar” or patriot ~ “we will always have his example — a lodestar for restoring honor to public life and our national dialogue” ~ when this person was, in fact, the disgrace that he was, having violated the articles of Military Code of Conduct by collaborating with the enemy in a theater of war and violating various US Codes in his open and vocal association with ISIS, must himself be totally suspect who’s likely consuming the TidePods and should be wholly discounted. Just my opinion of course.

  4. Reading your column I ask myself, how do you manage to stay sane? ;-) (I don’t have to worry about myself staying sane, because of lesser IQ). Another question: Why do firemen get injured all too often in today’s world? Every time I hear about a fire 25% of the crew claims some sort of injury, or so it seems?!

  5. Your theory about Russia planting a piece in the New York Times is not based on fact. The fact is the Times met/talked with this senior official, verified his/her identity, promised to withhold their name before they ran the story. The NY Times, despite what Trump bloviates is still a reputable news organization. They see what the 70% of the news viewership outside of Fox viewers sees.

    I have a friend here in the Bay Area that works with Kamala Harris and she said there is a recurring rumor that the anonymous writer is Ivanka.

    It sounds ludicrous I know, but her father basically ruined her clothing business, reputation and turned her families life upside down. She has disappeared from any White House related role in the past 5 months. She has gone against her father on immigration, many of his rants, and John McCain (Jared and her attended one of the services.)

    While Trump goes ballistic, loses his mind and calls the op-ed mystery person every name in the book…it all could be a set up to the big reveal day when Ivanka comes out and says. ‘It was me” .”What now Dad? ‘I want my life back”. Someone like her would be the only curious reason why the Times ran an anonymous op-ed in the first place…

    • “Someone like her would be the only curious reason why the Times ran an anonymous op-ed in the first place…”

      I just finished reading this “anonymous op-ed.” IMHO, it is anonymous, because it expresses the paper’s opinion, and was written by one of their junior editors. Plain to notice ;-(

  6. Just saw this on Twitter…pretty much sums up Trump.

    “A president who knows nothing About economics started a trade war which hurt farmers, so he put them on welfare with money he’s borrowing from the countries he started the trade war with.

    So, instead of PROFITING off of the sale of American food to China, Trumps trade policy has the United States PAYING INTEREST to China, while US farmers become dependent on the government because they aren’t SELLING food to China.”

  7. “do you trust digital me-too’ers any more than computer hackers making up money at home? ”

    Seriously…What’s the difference?
    Some fat cat wearing plaid and polyester shirt saying sitting on a porcelain throne saying my number is a good one.. Or some tech geek sitting at his computer screen saying his number is a good one?
    As long as people see the illusion enough to let you acquire tangible goods with it. What difference is there.
    Neither is backed by anything but the promise that it is good for trading.
    Now if bitcoin actually had a coinage token so people could jingle it Then it would have the feel…
    Unfortunately the world has bought the illusions lock stock and barrel

  8. oh great
    distractions- grand jury for Corsi, Hi Tech hearings for Alex, and antifa dressed up as condoms, and Handmaids, screeching loudly for let’s guess- paying them outside with bags of cash.
    What next? Well now just in time for the midterms do we have a planned [FF]pandemic for USA? A flight of quick developing Flu then perhaps forced populace vaccinations to chip us, sicken us, or kill us?
    More distractions.
    People too sick to vote.
    Well just watch the congressional hearings, that’s
    enough to sicken anyone and its not microwaves its EVIL and stupidity.
    NE (R)Sen. Sasse had it right- civics 101- Congress-both chambers have dropped the proverbial ball
    by not having the balls to DO THEIR JOBS- looks like a long planned [FF] too, over a 60 year period of time?
    Taking control out of the voters hands and squarely into bureaucracy that NO ONE voted into power.
    Its called compromise/infiltration from the inside=SWAMP

  9. The markets are stagnant. There is little move to manuever. To sell would require capital gain payments. If your cash liqiudity is low due to rapid growth expenditures and your debt vs assests ratio is high, again due to accelerated growth in anticipation of an economic boom, your only choice is to sit tight and wait. lol

    Small and large businesses that expanded are faced with sitting inventory. The fact that wages for the middle class have not risen to facilitate the moving of inventory is a bottleneck. The prime example is the auto industry and the increasing demand for used autos not new autos. This examples plays out down the line. To sell product you have to have buyers. The economic boom is back ass backwards. The low unemployment numbers donot reflect a properous lower class.

    Previously the GDP was running 2 – 2.5%, this represented a replacement level of growth. Just enough growth to replace what what people already had, ex: a washing machine fails you have the money to replace the washing machine. The problem we see now is that the GDP growth of 4% is a result of a juiced economy that is stratified and is not tickling down. The vast unwashed class may be employed at a higher rate but we are still stuck in a 2% GDP environment.

    The portion of pie for the majority of us has not increased, as wealtier Americans get a larger portion of the pie. In the end that larger piece of the pie is still dependent on consumption of goods by the majority. If that consumption is not adequate, the fuel for further growth will be solely dependent on the consumption of the 10% of wealthier Americans, which gets us back to low cash liquidity and a high debt vs assest ratio.

    The people and companies that are currently well situated are those with plenty of cash on hand. Sooner or later selling or unloading assets will become inevitable. At that time, those that are well situated will take as much as it can, from as many as it can, in the shortest amount of time. lol

  10. reading allot of Q .. I have lately // seems that Corsi was outed as a foreign agent .. but hey you have to look at the facts too.. so I would suggest reading some of Q’s post and links .. if you have the time . .. having information .. and correct information more importantly is needed and discernment . Just some cool woo woo ?..

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