Next Week to Turn?

Crappy week for markets – if you were foolish enough to be long (Bullish) stocks after Labor Day. Both the Dow and the NASDAQ were down more than 1,000 points each while the S&P was down more than 200.

This morning, we sort through some of the drivers and – in our usual 18-chart collection – will look at where recent data has suggested we’re going next.

Honestly, presidential politics has become rather boring now that Donald Trump will not be running from behind bars. Thus, avoiding the full-on revolution that some have predicted.

Still, there’s the little matter of the neocons, who have “bellows to the fire” trying to get even a limited nuclear exchange going before elections in order to further their uni-party goals.

Not the most exciting plans to consider, but sadly the “grownup thing to do” at this time in life.

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53 thoughts on “Next Week to Turn?”

  1. Reminiscent of my road trip to Wisconsin, I see in the news the things I had mentioned here, about a month ago …

    I’d notice an extreme amount of employees with “various accents” …

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/great-replacement-job-shock-13-million-native-born-americans-just-lost-their-jobs-replaced

    I had met a guy on the trip in Chicago who told me of folks in the hood being afraid of the immigrants there. – If you haven’t heard … Venezuelan gang takes over Chicago apartment building … and one in Denver.

    https://americanmilitarynews.com/2024/09/audio-venezuelan-gang-takes-over-chicago-apartment-Of course they deny it.
    Chicago was voted Second Best City in the US. Recently.
    Imagine that. building-report/

    Of course they deny it.
    Chicago was voted Second Best City in the US. Recently.
    Imagine that.

    https://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/wireStory/police-deny-venezuela-gang-rundown-apartment-complex-denver-113427404

    Ya know, you aren’t going to see things like this randomly on your phones. Ya gotta put them down and look around.

        • Bob, I think you forgot to link the article. I’m not surprised that NYC is first. There’s a subset of the population – cityfolks- who think NYC has something to offer(besides crime, pollution, no parking, and extreme expenses for everything). I have a close friend in NJ who visits NYC twice every weekend for nothing more than dancing. It seems inane to me, but to each their own. I can only hope she stays safe. Curiously, her sister lives in Chicago! Go figure.

          I lived in greater NY once and was thrilled when I finally sold my business and could leave there forever! IMHO, there’s no worse state in the Union than NY! I cringe at the thought of even visiting!

        • I was only in NYC once.. and that was to much to long..
          met a long haul trucker all shook up .. someone took his radio.. he called the police the police said..what in the hell are you doing there at this time of the day.. we won’t come to that neighborhood until daylight.
          he seen someone get murdered in front of the truck scared the hell out of him.

          another driver was in chicago..late at night.. a gang was approaching and he sped off before he got killed.
          then LA.. they could careless for the law and that was before they defended officers in the highest crime areas.. now its what little islam.. and California residents are saying lets buy these folks new homes and give them cash cards..while veterans are living on the sidewalks..

        • I’m actually in Bullard but most folks would identify geographically with the larger Berg. Tyler was voted best City to live in in Texas anyways……

    • ABC News has just zeroed their credibility. The writeup was from the AP Wire and was written by a gal in Helena, Montana. I would be willing to bet money that ABC has a TV station affiliate which serves the Denver area, has a local news staff, and could physically send a physical reporter+cameraman to Aurora to originate a news story.

  2. Boy, that’s the most cobbled up comment I’ve ever written.
    I got a hangover from hell this morning. Omg lol

  3. “avoiding the full-on revolution”

    There’s always going to be a reason why the revolution is pushed out on the calendar.

    Over the last week did you see Trump admitted he “lost by a whisker” when describing the 2020 election?

    How do the Trump supporters/Qanon believers who over the last four years have been parroting the election was stolen recover?

    Some of the January 6th rioters gave up life force focusing on a stolen election that wasn’t. The guy who propped his feet on Pelosi’s desk “began serving his 4.5-year sentence on Aug. 1, 2023”. 54 months is over 5% of an average lifespan.

    Hopefully the J6’ers are meditating and reflecting and accept they were duped Vs getting madder and madder.

    • I’m pretty sure President Trump lost by blatant and well organized fraud. Even if he didn’t, there was so much obvious fraud that the only responsible thing would have been to hold another election with clear proof of citizenship for all voters and a crosscheck for those voting more than once or in multiple districts and/or states. I have zero confidence in the current election process.

      • A lot to unpackage.

        Trump said:

        ““We got the most votes of anybody — of any sitting president in history, and he beat us by a whisker,” Trump said Aug 30. He has made similar comments in other appearances in the past few days.”

        I think this may make him guilty of election tampering.

        • unpackage,
          it is like playing poker, when you have 4 aces and you know that you are not cheating, but some how the other guy has a royal flush,,,
          too many aces in the count,,, well Trump is telling you ol joe has more ballots than voters, Trump got more votes,,, joe got more ballots, a whiskers worth of ballots without voters
          Why do think the republicans are screaming about getting the election roles cleaned up, the cheaters install ballots for the dead who still are in the rolls and they will vote for people who do not show up to vote,

          In what world makes you consider Trump’s remarks as election tampering? that sounds so demoncratic?
          out of the ashes of the demon rat party came Trump,,, and Elon,,, and RFKjr,,, and Tulsi
          in trade you got the Chaneys
          I was a democrat most of my life, till I got tired of voting for the totally corrupt uniparty and QUIT voting,, till Trump
          When they tried to kill him should have been a wake up call for you,, do you really think that patsy kid on the roof was the real sniper, when sound recordings show 3 separate guns being discharged,,, CNN did a live coverage that they have not done for a long time and there was the camera guy who just happened to have his camera settings set to capture a fired bullet, just imagine the photo if the bullet had caught more that just nick his ear.
          THEY MISSED, but it was a set up by the SS just like in the JFK, the SS was called back away just before JFK took bullets from more than one shooter
          go to the 1 min mark
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xEK16kLHsM

  4. I see the first part of my prediction has now happened: Boeing’s Starliner is down safe. Everything worked fine, apparently — showers of Glory upon all NASA and Boeing. They were just maximizing safety, after all. And, that’s a Good Thing.

    Part two remains.

    Just last week, Elon was being measured for his hero statue, as his ship, “Dragon,” was floated by many learned journalists as the only hope for a rescue passage.

    If Dragon fails, and the crew is killed, think how this combined event establishes-RE-estabishes government’s claim of being smarter than the rest of us serfs. Especially the mavericks.

    Make or break moment for Elon….

    Make no mistake: I prey for the safe return of the astos. Nobody sane wishes these Brave Souls harm.

    But GovDome has repeatedly demonstrated it is glad to crack a few eggs to make an omlette.

    I deeply wish I did NOT have that thought. My dearly beloved view of civics was formed in the sixth grade. Amid unicorns and skittles and purity of motives.

    • My unicorns were destroyed when I did the deep research dive into 911 and discovered it was a guvt inside job.

      And as for ‘Devil Dick’ Cheney and his progeny voting for “anyone but Trump”, gee, who could have seen that coming (Sarc)? Cheney was ‘in command’ of 911 and clearly likes to destroy America, so he’s still in character. You’d think Liz would get a clue when she was voted out of office on her “get Trump” and ignore the people campaign.

    • Boeing’s ship had serious problems on it’s re-entry, but they aren’t talking about it much. ANOTHER of it’s Maneuvering thrusters FAILED after they detached from the ISS.

      Boeing and NASA not saying much, which says a LOT. They probably came close to losing it as it came in since several of the other thrusters were no longer working after it’s trip up. Talk about riding the tail of a dragon. Who knows if they could have kept control of it if the weight had been higher with the two astronauts in it.

      (doubt we will ever get the real info as to how close they came to losing it last night)

      Correct choice to go with Musk.

      • I remember the old days when the frequent flyers wore T-shirts that said “If it’s not Boeing, I’m not going!”
        I worked with a radio engineer who worked for Boeing when he was in the Air Force yet. He taught me some of the quality control procedures when making wire harness and crimp terminals. My… how times have changed.

  5. A sad thought about elections. (I wish I didn’t think these things. My assumed baseline world is much nicer — happier…)

    There is much hystarical absolutism being thrown around. Much verbal extremism on both “sides.”

    Regardless of who “wins,” the losing “side” will be outraged in the extreme.

    Here, the crystal grows dark — but the background music is most tense and ominous.

    …and we all cruise on daily., heedless of the sound of the waterfall

  6. American politics is just as stupid as it was when you went to bed last night. Except ‘Hell has frozen over’: US ex-VP Dick Cheney will vote for Kamala Harris, not Donald Trump.

    Of course he will. Neocons are Leftists. They are neither Republican nor conservative. NO neocon or RINO will vote for Trump because, if elected, he will kill their illicit income and power streams.

    I thought this was news, until I noticed it was from

    “Mothership”

    which is owned and run by the intelligence division of the People’s Liberation Army, specifically to target the U.S. with propaganda that the CCP considers “useful” to the Party and its “causes…”

  7. Hamburger stew
    Ingredients
    1 pound ground beef
    1 onion, chopped
    2 cloves garlic, minced
    1 package skinless smoked sausage, sliced
    4 slices cooked bacon, crumbled
    3 medium potatoes, peeled and diced
    1 can kidney beans, drained and rinsed
    1 can black beans, drained and rinsed
    1 can corn kernels, drained
    1 can diced tomatoes ( I like Italian)
    2 1/2 cups beef broth
    2 teaspoons chili powder
    1 teaspoon cumin
    1/2 teaspoon smoked paprika
    1/2 teaspoon salt
    1/4 teaspoon pepper
    ( 1 cup shredded cheddar cheese, optional)
    Instructions
    1. In a large pot or Dutch oven, cook the ground beef, onion, and minced garlic over medium heat until browned. Drain any excess fat.
    2. Add the sliced smoked sausage and crumbled cooked bacon to the pot. Stir and cook for a few minutes until the sausage is heated through.
    3. Add the diced potatoes to the pot and stir to combine.
    4. Stir in the kidney beans, black beans, corn, and diced tomatoes (with their juice).
    5. Add the beef broth, chili powder, cumin, smoked paprika, salt, and black pepper. Stir to combine all the ingredients.
    6. Bring the mixture to a simmer. Reduce the heat to low, cover the pot, and let the stew simmer for about 20-25 minutes, or until the potatoes are tender and the flavors are well combined.

    you can use dried beans to.. if you decide to use dried beans I get the mixed beans and put in 9ne cup to two quarts of water and beef broth.. 1/2 cup dehydrated vegitable blend..

  8. They had small turkey breaststroke on sale.. dam if that didn’t strike a cord lol.. so the plan is get the turkey breast and make some deli turkey sandwich meat..
    cut up in three stages big medium and small chunks..various sized not uniform..
    I jar of roast turkey gravey
    onion powder
    garlic powder
    salt
    pepper..
    sage
    1/2 cup powdered milk
    1 lb ground turkey
    1 cup of chicken broth

    put the ground turkey in the freezer for one hour.. really cold..
    then put the ground turkey the turkey gravey and broth and the spices into the blender or food processor and start blending add the powdered milk it should appear as a paste..
    scrape this into a bowl with the various cuts of turkey mix it well..
    in your ham maker pan line it with a cooking bag and a meat sock in the bag.
    fill it with your mixture and pack it down tight tie off the meat sock and seal the bag.
    now place the spring loaded top on and insert the thermometer.
    put the ham pan in a pot filled with water..( cold pack water bath canner water above the meat) put the lid on it and turn on the stove or sous vide at 165 degrees.. when the internal temp gets to 165 then take the pan out let it cool then 8n the refrigerator over night. remove the cooking bag the take out the meat sock. cold smoke it for 2 hours or more..
    this is better than the 7 dollar deli meat slices at a fraction of the cost .

    https://www.amazon.com/PTMTFYL-Stainless-Thermometer-Sandwich-Poultry/dp/B0D5D1MJQM/ref=pd_aw_ci_mcx_mh_mcx_views_0?

  9. Talked with a guy this morning over coffee after my “morning ride” – I have met him before. He was telling me about the house his sister just bought. Twelve years ago it sold for $126,000 – she just closed the deal at $330,500. Drained their entire savings, every dime, to make the down payment. But she got “such a deal”.
    He tried hard, several times, to talk her out of it – but she wouldn’t listen – they needed to “do better”., as she put it.
    With mortgage, insurance and property taxes – combined – the costs are around ten percent more than their combined annual salaries. Maintenance, gas, groceries and the occasional stop at the local taco wagon – not included. {How did the mortgage lender approve this?} ., and we all know that insurance and property taxes ‘never’ go down.
    He is not sure what he is going to do. He retired early; to live a decent life and is on a fixed, tight budget and can’t help her out – and he figures it will take about a year before they will desperately need helping-out.
    .
    Why do people do this to themselves? As it has been stated here, before – “The biggest problem that most people have is – themselves.”

    • Sad … can’t understand how they could even get a loan.

      From the top real estate cycles generally take 36 o 48 months to bottom, center point is about 44 month. Over the last few hundred years the cycles have ranged from 24 months to 60 months but the tighter range is the typical range.

      Real Estate runs on both a 10 year cycle and bigger and more important 17.2-17.3 year cycle (peak to peak). Timing alone tells us Residential should be peaking, price wise, in the June to August 2024 time frame from it’s last “idealized timing” peak in the spring of 2007 (with that real estate peak it was a saw tooth peak with residential actually peaking June 30, 2006 and commercial peaking Dec 31, 2007).

      This time around Commercial peaked early with Residential peaking at the idealized turn time (imo), but however you cut the mustard the time for the residential to peak is NOW.

      Remember … real estate valuations issues were what I did exclusively for the last 35 years, and and was doing that as part of my work for 5 years before it became my exclusive work area. Been through several full cycles now so seen it all, so to speak.

      • Good info – thanks
        .., and I am still wondering how they got the loan. It is way above their means & income.
        .., but – you can never convince a stupid person that they are wrong.

      • At the top, there are sellers selling what you want to buy into with loans available, but prices are high. At the bottom, few people want to sell and loans are hard to get.

        I always bought what nobody else wanted at a price the sellers were really not happy about. I’d buy junk that I could repair, and either paid cash or got the sellers to take paper. I only once ever had a bank mortgage. I really don’t like them – they won’t finance what I want to buy and have all kinds of conditions I’d rather avoid. I generally went for income property but today, rentals are too much of a nuisance unless you have a property manager and lawyer on tap. My system worked for me. Others have to find their own.

    • “He is not sure what he is going to do. He retired early; to live a decent life and is on a fixed, tight budget and can’t help her out – and he figures it will take about a year before they will desperately need helping-out.”

      What he should do now is let them fail and don’t stress about it. Sissy is a big girl. She should have learned the lesson 30 years ago. She didn’t because there was always someone around to “bail her out.”

      His job, should he choose to accept it, is to catch her and her family after they fall, not shore them up so they can dodge responsibility and not learn.

      The bad thing is after you file for bankruptcy, you become an excellent credit risk (because you can’t file again FOR YEARS) and so every fly-by-night bank, RTO store, and shady loan company will come out of the woodwork to offer you clean credit — very expensive clean credit, often more credit than the amount which bankrupted you. In bankruptcy, things like your roof and wheels are protected. After bankruptcy, they are not.

      He can let Sissy learn, or watch her live out her days in the local homeless shelter…

    • Money still talks and bullsh!t still walks. Any other way of looking at a financial transaction is magical thinking.
      Buyers delude themselves into thinking they “own” the home they are making time payments on. The lender owns the home; the buyer is their mortgage indentured debt slave. Credit deflation is characterized by forcible liquidation of debt. The next two years are going to be rough for those who can’t tell the difference between their assets and a bottomless debt pit.

      • (“Money still talks and bullsh!t still walks. Any other way of looking at a financial transaction is magical thinking.
        Buyers delude themselves into thinking they “own” the home they are making time payments on. “)

        you never own it.. how many people have cash on hand.. most have it in a box.. or a bank.. and they get a sheet of paper or a web page that says.. lookie here how well off you are.. but if that ever left.. if there was an EMP attack its gone.. just an image that once was.. a lot of people that went through that.. during the last depression.. hid money in jars buried in the hog pen.. or walls..
        its only good until its not.. how far can they print before people start saying.. dam where is it.. is it any good.. and what about gold and silver.. excuse me you need someone that wants it..

        https://youtu.be/YHjYt6Jm5j8?si=1x4fDQZgRgdgykVo

  10. .., a personal rant – based on a couple of posts here lately
    I have always been amazed at large cities. The big ones. Like New York, Miami, Dallas, LA, Paris, Rome, London, especially Tokyo and Mexico City.., even San Francisco, Seattle and Sydney. I have walked, worked and/or hustled my way through all of them at one time or another, and have always felt the same when I left ’em. Relieved.
    How? How can so many people live and work so packed together., so crowded-in ? How can they do it – day after day – all of their lives ? And billions, or so, do it – daily. It is their existence. It’s the only life they know. Take a hairdresser out of Oklahoma City and plop her down in the middle of a corn field, just two hundred miles away from her Starbucks and she will more than likely die from a panic attack. Totally foreign environment.
    Humans have a herd mentality. They much prefer living in groups, clans, tribes, villages, cities., as most don’t do very well living alone. Being alone seems ‘unnatural’ to most. Take away their cell phone and a week on a farm would drop most city dwellers to their knees.
    And that is one of mankind’s biggest and most exploitable vulnerabilities. It started here around the turn of the last century and then accelerated after the Dust Bowl and Great Depression – mass migration to the “Big City”. Generation after generation left the farm., seeking their fortune elsewhere. Generation after generation became office-drones of one kind, or another. To the point that people will leave their jobs and march around the block holding cute little signs demanding a paid fifteen minute “personal break” in the afternoon. They just don’t realize how ridiculous their lives have become. It’s all they know.
    These huge cities., and for that matter even the ones with 20,000 or so, are now completely dependent on factors outside of their control. Outside of their City. Outside of their meaningless demonstrations., religion or politics. Very, very few even understand that. That gas station., that grocery store., that pharmacy has always been there. One out of six Americans are on some form of prescription medication., and the last time I looked, everyone needs to eat., and all of that is delivered. .., and that delivery is completely outside of their wants, or needs – outside of their control. No matter how much they scream, protest., demand, or die.
    .., and there are a lot of ways to stop that delivery.
    – Yeah.., it pretty much is all Doom & Gloom – at the moment.
    .
    “Stay Frosty ! “

    • I spent the first five years of my life ‘out in the country’ in the 50s. I learned to amuse myself. Nearest neighbor kid to play with was a 1/2 mile walk down the road. Didn’t happen often.
      I hated the crowded, stressed, big city life. Put up with it for 40 years to achieve my goal of retiring to the countryside again. Surprised I survived, but ‘mission accomplished’.

      “We don’t have homeowners with these folks, but there is an increasing trend among insurance companies to only fund operations where they can make money.”

      Hah! Try buying homeowners insurance on an active volcano! I don’t have homeowners insurance either… I have fire extinguishers.

    • Imagine if you will… a couple million people packed on islands 2500 miles from the mainland. Dependent upon the container ships to bring them food, fuel, and the neccessities (toilet paper) of life. No one in the big city thinks about what will happen when the ships stop coming in.

      • Why when (if? but I think when) China invades it will NOT invade Oahu … it will skip over it to and go to another island that it’s air force can operate out of. It will just let the crowds on Oahu stir in their own juices while it ignores them.

        Any other islands have any sort of protected anchorage of any sort? If so that is where they are going.

        • Oahu has Marine, Army, Navy, and Air Force bases. If the invaders ignore those, they will suffer the wrath of the collective military based there. It’s air force would not last an hour at “Hilo International”. (Flight time ~30min.)

          And despite being a ‘no guns’ government here, you have no idea of the citizens armament here, especially out here in the wilds, where there is ample legal hunting at times to keep the wild pigs and goats under control.

        • That explains why my friend, visiting from the Philippines, put his used TP in the basket next to the bowl. We had to explain to him that you could flush the tissues down our good American toilets on the city sewage system.

          And my backup system for no TP is the bathtub and shower wand next to the toilet. People laugh, but Hawaii has already been through a shipping strike that stopped supplies coming in. First thing to run out was toilet paper. So you know what Hawaiians stock up on in an emergency. WE created the ‘toilet paper’ meme when it spread on social media to the mainland… despite all logic to the contrary.

        • you know.. when I was really sick.. I couldn’t use my hands. this is the tool you use along with a bidet. you might think this is silly and wow who would use such a thing.. well taking care of people for almost fifty years.. this is the best option.. nothing like having a person on the toilet and they cannot do the simple things.. trying to hold them up and then doing the manual job.. it really became obvious when I couldn’t use my hands.. you have no idea.. these simple tools work great.. do the job and you don’t have to use your fingers.. way back I mean way back.. the first experience I had.. was back in 69 you volunteered helping then.. and there was an old woman.. no gloves back then only one set in the dirty utility closet.. and a leather apron.. I ran to get the gloves and apron..came back and there was this old woman washing the other off.. I said what no gloves.. she said.. after you have done this as many years as I have you get use to it.. well later we were in the break room and she was eating cheese curls.. and she made the comment.. even after washing my hands six times they still smell like shit.. I said .. you know that isn’t chocolate under your finger nails.. I always wore gloves..always.. and dealing with someone sitting.. its one thing if it is you but another if your dealing with someone that yells out.. (I’m DONE )

          https://youtu.be/BGGTyh3C_M0?si=TiMpvs2KC5hqrHe1

          https://youtu.be/M_Cxk094hCM?si=Sq8x6RWT9KkBwAeh

          all of my toilets have bidets and a wand next to them.. along with a disinfectant container for the wand..

        • Around the World – water has been the answer to keeping Ure butt clean.

          Color me pleased some have on here have actually gone the water route after the operation No Butt Wipes was launched as part of the covert19 attack.

          *WW3 IS going to be Biological Weapon Attack .

      • If you live on a remote island, it probably makes sense to have a seaworthy boat of your own. One with sails and a motor, of course.

    • “How can so many people live and work so packed together., so crowded-in ?”

      I don’t think about it. I simply know that I never could live the sardine lifestyle.

    • See..I would love to live isolated from the hectic world.. presently we live in a small village .. isolated yet not..
      where I would freak out is if I didn’t have books..I have on the ebook reader what five thousand give or take of my favorite books.. and that’s not counting my audible books..
      as we would sit in the stacks of the LOC ( library of congress ) the thought of just how easy it to could end up as one of the lost libraries of the world. like Alexandria the lost library of Ivan the greats wife legend has it that there are scrolls from Alexandria and older…. this is the true treasures on the planet..with mankind going digital the loss of the grid would soon have us living in caves.
      my dream home would be a rammed earth home.
      how fast would mankind be shoved back to the stone age..
      the loss of books and knowledge..

  11. Interview with Neil Howe (“The Fourth Turning” and “The Fourth Turning is Here”). About an hour long. If you are ONLY interested in the markets the last 7 minutes or so he talks about those based upon the history of the Fed and how the economic cycle plays into the Fed’s actions.

    Entire program well worth a listen, very very good for any of you who have read the Fourth Turning and care to see his current take on American Society as we go into the last few year of that Fourth Turning. (he is looking for a confluence of events to happen all at once)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85g2FrR_7wo

    • wow.. thank you for that..
      oh then consider one part.. take the people of california.. they can’t afford housing at all.. then to tell them.. I want you to buy these people new homes.. and provide all their support.. if one sector of society is scrambling trying to survive.. can’t afford the basics then is told they must provide more for those people than they can provide for their own families.. and leave the top of the society free from having to do this.. or better yet forcing them to provide as well.. you have a situation that is going to be inflamed .. then on top of it knowing that they are supporting modern slave traders and drug traffickers.. oh my this could get real ugly real fast..

  12. .., and one more thing

    Where are all those hurricanes that are going to destroy the country., devastate the economy and send the world in general to brink of extinction ?

    Supposed to be 25 ‘named’ storms barreling up our backsides.

    Talk about a no-show…,

  13. Here’s a reason to invoke Article 5 –

    Two NATO members say Russian drones violated their airspace

    “Two NATO members said Sunday that Russian drones violated their airspace, as one reportedly flew into Romania during nighttime attacks on neighboring Ukraine while another crashed in eastern Latvia the previous day. ”

    Article 5 refresher:

    “Article 5 provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked.”

    https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm

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