Nested Bayesian Investment Analysis

Humans are binary animals. It’s built in to how we think because of our “wetware” – which means neurons only have two states:  fired or not.

This has tremendous implications for how we arrange nested decisions and how we “bias ourselves” in certain directions.  Yet little of this is out in front of the public to consider

Instead, we live in a world where the majority of our binary decisions are pre-packaged so that corporations can profit from our following “their script.” “Tell your doctor” and “Buy one today.”  It’s that way in investments, as well.  Binarism, if you will.  So, this morning we toss around some ideas on this point and I think you’ll find it thought-provoking as hell.

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22 thoughts on “Nested Bayesian Investment Analysis”

  1. To overcome the negative attachment to the term term “White Priviledge”, I suggest a “White History Month” is instituted in the USA to educate our socialist polititions that Socialism gives the people less, but the polititions more. In am sure Elizabeth Warren & Betojuice understands this but don’t care, they want votes… Just look at Russia…their people are poor, but the polititions rich. Africa is a mess & getting worse. Central & South American residents have been pick pocketed by their polititions  to the extent that they need to escape to the USA for a chance of survival.

    White History Month is a necessary beginning to correct this travesty & inform all of the utter corruption of our polititions. It could also be referred to as “Constitution Month”.

    Who in the USA are most Anti Immigration….Native Americans. On Glenn Beck it was hinted that Elizabeth Warren, a self proclaimed Native American, is thinking of handing out smallpox laced blankets to immigrents as they cross the border.

    • Doesn’t going after White Americans because they have too much money sound like Nazi Germany. That is where we are headed Whitey. Doesn’t make my bucket list.

      • Whitey is the new Jew. They are cutting off funding to the was majority whitey Father led families by outsourcing the good jobs, and bringing in and educating everyone but whitey to take the better jobs. Whitey has a social security number that is regularly used against whitey so that whitey isn’t eligible for most programs. Most banking jobs are bilingual and that is moving mountains of jobs in all sectors away from whitey. Whitey is being set up right now as the social security inputs they’ve paid into their whole working lives so their benefit check will get get cut 25 percent to give to everyone else. If you pay attention, the mantra is anything but whitey, especially whitey Christian. So yeah, white is the new Jew and the real new racism is reverse racism. And more to come.

      • Actually, all this has nothing to do with racism. It has everything to do with money & power & who wields the power. Similar to what Putin accomplished in Russia. Our leaders in Washington are ruining this country for their benefit & their biggest priority is to get rid of Trump because, for some misguided reason, they view him as a threat, which he isn’t.

      • Just because you didn’t take a second language in high school (besides learning English properly) isn’t anyone’s fault but your own. I took Latin and French; Other people in my class/grade took Spanish. Value learning, friend!!

      • You don’t seem to understand what is going on in this country. The time for political sensitivity is over. Unfortunately, the Millenials are bird brains & can’t see what is happening to them. They have fat paychecks & will inherit a boatload more of US greenbacks. Millenials need to stop running around singing:

        I feel pretty
        Oh, so pretty
        I feel pretty, and witty and gay

        And hop on the Trump bus or something similar.

      • “Bird”:

        May be back 40-speak for “board”; as in ‘well, truth hit me o’er me head wid a 2×4’?

        “Bored”? Nah, never a dull moment in the Village.

    • “IT’S OK TO BE WHITE”.

      The previous statement alone(in caps) posted around various college campuses caused calls to and responses by police. It was considered “hate speech”.

      There were investigations trying to find the “culprit”.

      IMHO, it’s an innocuous exercise of First Amendment rights.

      And no, I’m not a racist, though it seems many from the left are pressuring me to become one.

  2. George – would like to point your attention to TD Sequential for powerful and super efficient trading/charting program. This is what some of the big boyz have been/are using; candles/doji’s/hammers/hangingman/shooting stars/spinning tops. Red candles when price/trend flips, indicator runs 1-9 on top, 1-13 on bottom..perfected 9 is 9 on top and a 13 on bottom. Sequential gives the “chartist” ability to reason thru patterns/price flips unlike algos. Green 2’s above a green 1 after a 9 – BUYBUYBUIY, or vice versa a red 2 below a Red1 after a 9 – sellsellsell. Sequential gives you the ability to make the “perfect trade”, this type of trade might only come along once every couple of years or months, week..all depends on underlying volatility of security in question.
    If you want to really learn how to make money and NOT lose money TRADING, I highly recommend Tone Vays on UTube or his website – yes he is a Bitcoin legend, but he is teaching TRADING and is the best I have seen in years.

    Speaking of BITCOIN..called the Buy at $5500 all in this week, less than 5 days it is up 25% and going higher – at what price is this a moonshot – double/triple/5 bagger/10 bagger?
    For trading purposes I’m calling “moonshot” at $11,000.00 if it ever gets there in next 85 days (3 month time frame) Note – this is a gamble still, not full on bullish till Bitcoin goes full 82% Dominance,( on the Chart BTC Dominance) over all other $hitcoins..yes there is a chart for that.

    • crash, looked up Tone Vays on youtube. He seems to only be associated with bitcoin trading. Is there a link to that trading system you noted?

      • tone has a website, where U can get his software/indicator. He teaches trading, with Technical Analysis and the Indicator. The T.A. with indicator works on just about tradable any asset. He will cover gold,oil, S&P, and some individual stocks – like Lyft which he is trying to get in under $45. Site and videos are free to use, caution would be advised in putting it to work, but learning and refreshing trading disiplines and strategies have greatly improved personal P&L – plus Tone is very entertaining.

  3. There is a pattern of repetition in the tireless broken-record demagoguery that characterizes the continuous attacks being made against anyone who dares to defy the leftist agenda:

    The partisan political gangs and their minions have always embraced demagoguery, but that has taken a back seat to cold-blooded psychological warfare manipulation of the public by the left and their media shills in their ever-expanding pursuit of control. Everything is politicized. No matter what the issue, the solution offered is “get that other guy”.

    The kids are suffering the worst in the propaganda-turned-brainwashing deluge. “Leaders” and their media minions constantly bombard them with messages scientifically engineered to provoke hatred and violence toward the political opposition. There is no doubt in my mind that clinical psychologists are being employed by the leftist partisans to find emotional buttons to push to incite hatred and violence toward the opposition by youths. Where is my proof? I see and hear the result with my own eyes and ears; I leave it to the non-leftist investigative journalists to prove me wrong.

    When you see a leftist politico or their dupe mouthing that same broken-record inflammatory message and think to yourself “no sensible adult could buy that bs”, remember, you aren’t the target, the kids sitting on the floor at your chair are who the message is targeting. I no longer think the evening national news should be viewed by minors under the age of 21. Social media are about the same. The leftists want child soldiers to do their bidding, and the leftist refrain is Trump-Trump-Trump, Russia-Russia-Russia to the tune of the skipping record beat:

    While I don’t particularly like Trump’s continuous public rants, I don’t see anything more sinister than ineffectual self-defense in most of it. The brain-washing techniques being used by Trump’s opposition are being engineered to incite revolutionary hatred in the most vulnerable, and represent real weaponized political rhetoric by the neo-Stalinists. The left wishes to bury multi-party democracy in the sands of time; it is time to draw that proverbial line in the sand with the Marxist psychopaths before the 2020 elections.

    • The leftist will say that everything you’ve noted as being a tactic of the left, is actually the tactics of the right, there by theyre justified in their equal attacks back.

      • Naw. The current hard-left mainstream partisans will just scream their latest Party line tune, which for the past few weeks, has been the Trump-Obstruction refrain, but always to the same broken-record tune. A few of the fringe left groups still do get creative in their counterattacks:

        I believe Kruschev was the one who started the “bury’em in history” branch of Marxism. While the movie “The Death of Stalin” was based on a graphic historical fiction comic series, I think it captures the flavor of single party Marxism in action. It may be the only Hollywood product I’ve watched which didn’t flatter the left in at least some minor fashion.

      • Robert, it sounds like the Hegelian Dialectic. George, I remember I had Mr. Casey for both German and World History in the same quarter. It must have been his last year because he did very little teaching but would show the same movies in both classes while he sat at his desk and read a book. but he would always manage a little talk that ended up with the quote from Hegel, “The ultimate reality is the unity of opposites; the juxtaposition of incongruities”. Seems like we are being played.

  4. WoW, Captain,

    We just ran Data through the Bayesian predictive analytics modelling on the AN/FSQ-7 in Holodeck 59. Figure Troll had a better than three quarters probability for an anti-social event in comments generating null editorial response per standard operating procedure. Secondary scan FB, Twitter, Interstate license plate readers tabulating future activity envelope plan.

    Next up on this evening’s episode of Emperor’s Fashion Blog book reading: “The Naked Future”.

    In closing, hear’z publik nues that’s fit to print.

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