The “Murder Cycle” is Not Dead

Longtime readers of this website will remember we have written many times about an oddity in human behavior: it appears humans (in this age of mass media/hysteria) have evolved something we label the murder cycle.

This popped out of the data many years ago.  I noticed that mass murderers seem to do their dirty deeds within 135 to 150 days of one another preceding event.  It is very difficult to be more precise than a date range because we are dealing with something that on a scatter chart looks like a bell curve.  In other words, there is a central tendency toward the 142 day range.

Sadly, the events at the Florida high school yesterday were right in this expectation date-range at 136 days.  No, I do not know why this works, but on October 1 of 2017, you will remember a mass shooting was occurred up in Las Vegas.  Our work, suggesting the ideal number would be 139 days, had led to us expecting that this coming weekend (President’s Day?) would be when the outrage shooting could be expected to occur.

(Continues below)


Sadly, this was not the case.  About all we know – besides 17 dead –  is that the shooter was a former student, reportedly aged 19, and there is informed speculation that his abhorrent actions were inspired by Isis.

Not to put on a major damper on your Thursday, but if we apply the average murder cycle length of 135-146 days forward from Valentine’s Day, it indicates that we should expect another mass killing event, only this time in the vicinity of the Fourth of July this summer.

We don’t like to make such look-ahead predictions, but there is the data, and there is some statistical basis that seems to be predictive of sick human behavior.

With such regularity, we have to wonder if it is, at a deep and undiscovered level, by design.

Special Subscriber Update

On our subscriber website this morning, you will  find an update on the method I enumerated yesterday to help determine if we are on the right side of the 1929 mega bubble popping, or if we are on the left side.

This is a critically important question because it informs our view of the future.

For example, if we are in a period analogous to the short, sharp market decline which began from the low December 13,1928, that would suggest a stock market peak in late September through October (even early November) of this year.

On the other hand, if we are on the right side of the 1929 bubble, we may already be in the massively decline phase of world stock markets. Just hasn’t dawned on us yet.

Subscribers may open the article here.  BTW: Our subscription prices ($40) have not changed for 10-years, earning Peoplenomics a reputation as one of the best values available to independent-thinking, private investors.

Who’s Spreadsheet?

Several readers asked me to explain why the article was titled Occam’s spreadsheetThis little snippet from Wikipedia should help:

Occam’s razor (also Ockham’s razor; Latin: lex parsimoniaelaw of parsimony“) is a problem-solving principle that, when presented with competing hypothetical answers to a problem, one should select the one that makes the fewest assumptions. The idea is attributed to William of Ockham (c. 1287–1347), who was an English Franciscan friar, scholastic philosopher, and theologian.

In science, Occam’s razor is used as a heuristic guide in the development of theoretical models, rather than as a rigorous arbiter between candidate models.[1][2] In the scientific method, Occam’s razor is not considered an irrefutable principle of logic or a scientific result; the preference for simplicity in the scientific method is based on the falsifiability criterion. For each accepted explanation of a phenomenon, there may be an extremely large, perhaps even incomprehensible, number of possible and more complex alternatives. Since one can always burden failing explanations with ad hoc hypotheses to prevent them from being falsified, simpler theories are preferable to more complex ones because they are more testable.”

We have no idea why the erudite academic community insists on the spelling Occam rather than the more correct Ockham; you’d have to have the group-think crowd yourself.  I suspect like so much of what they do it’s laziness and lack of rigor.

Whenever possible, we like to reduce problems of predicting the future to their simplest elements.  In this case, combining our work in Aggregate Market results in present times with a couple of data segments from the 1920s, provides some very interesting insight into upcoming market direction.

Or, so we hope!

Gee, Tanks!

From our contributing dot-mil oak leafy cluster fellow warhammer:

Hi George,

I’m fairly certain Russians were not controlling the T-72 tank obliterated by a Reaper drone a few days ago:

(Link to tank strike)

SecDef Mattis would never take a chance of diplomatically escalating the Syrian skirmish with Russia. 

That said, this episode, along with the Soviet fighter recently flying within an estimated 5 feet of a U.S. Navy surveillance aircraft in late January, shows that both the U.S. and Russia are militarily posturing aggressively against the other.  Such tactics often lead to unexpected consequences which result in military escalation and ever more antagonistic acts of bravado, all out of fear that one party might best the other on the world stage. 

Quoting that omnipotently wise green fellow:  “Fear is the path to the Dark Side.  Fear leads to anger.  Anger leads to hate.  Hate leads to suffering.

And so, Syria presses to another climax.

Economic Data du Jour

Philly Fed, Empire State and Producer Prices/Final Demand are all rolling now.  Ready to cycle through them?

“The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in January, seasonally adjusted,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in
December and moved up 0.4 percent in November. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the
final demand index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended in January.

In January, the rise in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.3-percent increase in prices
for final demand services and a 0.7-percent advance in the index for final demand goods.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.4 percent in January, the
largest advance since increasing 0.5 percent in April 2017. For the 12 months ended in January,
prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.5 percent, the largest
rise since 12-month percent change data were available in August 2014.”

On the Empire State Manufacturing:

And the Philly Fed Manufacturing Outlook?

The futures were up nearly 300 points early today.  They since have backed off to up 169. (Index options expire tonight.)

And Bitcoin is trying to work its way up out of the downward trend channel, but so far still stuck between the lines at $9,615 earlier.

Noble Savage BS

One of the popular lies and misstatement of the lliberals is that the native people who inhabited America before the mass migration from Europe were peaceful, loving, kind, gentles, blah, blah…

Well, it’s bullshit.

A read of Peter Turchin’s book Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth will straighten you right out.  Native Americans were mass killing one another pretty much non-stop before white/anglos showed up.  Archeology meet politically driven lies.

Reason I mention this? (Other than liberals bash Trump, so I feel bashing is fair game nowadays…)

Well, here’s a story in the news this morning about a Gruesome mystery: 8,000-year-old skulls found on wooden stakes.

Yes.  They of old were very territorial and very much prone to mass murders of opposing or encroaching tribes.  Pissy people.  Not what the “gentle savages” profiles sold by left-wing PC educators (and SJW’s, and blah blahs) would have you believe at all.

Revisionism is afoot that would make the Kremlin proud.  Native Americans were killing one another before whites arrived in N.A. despite what the shame-sellers keep trying to stuff into the empty heads of their potential revolutionary recruits.

Electric Airplanes

Electric airplane start-up Eviation aims to enter service in 2021 after battery deal.

Since we’ve done our share of trans-con small plane flying, we have to wonder what sort of range these things will have.  500 nautical is a good number and yeah, I seriously doubt it.  But go ahead – surprise me.  No extension cords, please.

Maybe this will help: Demonstration of a single molecule piezoelectric effect.  Or not.

More on the morrow…

author avatar
George Ure
Amazon Author Page: UrbanSurvival Bio:

52 thoughts on “The “Murder Cycle” is Not Dead”

    • I’m glad our local school district voted to be a Guardian School where the staff can be armed. I also keep a firearm ready in case I see something wicked going on at my granddaughter’s elementary school in this district. I really doubt it’ll happen here but there have been times that make one wonder.

      • Hello Bill, Would you take a minute to explain “Guardian” school and how to found out more about them?? I am sure many here would be interested. Thank You!


      • In answer to the rise in public and school shootings in the country a few years back Texas passed into law the right, basically, for ISD main governing boards to vote in the ability to have armed school staff members on campus in case there is a situation like what happened yesterday. Smaller school ISDs tend to like it because the staff is small and everyone pretty much knows everyone else. It’s a bit more problematic for larger schools systems that, ironically, would probably be more in need of such a policy but, unfortunately, are staffed and have board members that usually lean left. The identity of the weapon carrier is not generally known but it’s pretty easy to guess who it is on our campus across the street because she’s carrying her purse at odd times. Whether there’s more than one carrier I don’t know and that’s how you need it to be. Being a carrier is a voluntary position and also relieves the school district of having to pay for a police officer or private security officer on campus. As long as the carrier is serious about their responsibility and has at least some training it is a very practical means of providing deadly force security when it’s needed.

  1. One can’t paint the Hopi with a roaming nomad brush. The only bloodshed in their history (and it’s a long one) is the great pueblo revolt. And frankly, the Spaniards had it coming. Ure point though is not lost.

  2. I was wondering how far back this “murder cycle” goes? Is there a particular starting point such as the 80s? 70s? The 60s were almost the exclusive playground of the Deep State save for the tower shooter in Texas here. I don’t recall any mass shootings back beyond that. There was a school blown up in the 20s, though.

  3. Read Columbus’s first letter on his return to the old world to Isabella. Sincere appreciation from the natives looking for protection from the cannibals across the bay!

  4. If you want a good picture of the life of the Indians I highly recommend “9 Years Among the Indians” by Herman Lehmann. He was an Apache abductee that grew up from about the age of 10 or 11 to late teens as a captive who fully aclimated to that environment. It’s a quick read and he pulls no punches but does write that he didn’t tell everything for the sake of civility. Very enlightening book –

    Also, anticipating the usual sack cloth and ashes lamentations that we have not gone the way of Australia yet, thank God and the NRA, what exactly has happened to all the AR owners in Connecticut that did or did not register their rifles? I never heard of any house-to-house confiscation by the leftie state government back then. Are they just quiet criminals now?

  5. Whether you believe or not, the Book of Mormon is a history (600 BC to 431 AD) of the earliest people on this side of the world. I am not proselytizing at all. I am just making the point that in this religious script there are accounts of the people, who are some of the original indigenous people. They were brutal, killing women and children. Cannibalistic, and sacrificial with humans. So it makes since to me that from that time until the colonization of our country, they would continue their barbaric customs. Were there some who were more civilized than others, of course. Typical of the left they want to paint the entire race or culture with the same broad clothe. But to paint them all as these frolicking, nature loving, peaceful societies and only prone to violence because of the “white man” taking their land, is so absurd, that it is embarrassingly laughable.

    • Only if you don’t believe any of the physical evidence whether historical (or pre-historical) in the continents of Asia and the Americas, not to mention any of the cultural ‘stuff’. . . methinks you have land envy, sir!

      Basing justification for conquest on religious texts is a very bad idea.

      • What I am trying to say is that in the matter of ‘who’ is ‘the best’ to be living in the USA there is no valid answer. But it is a historical fact that this land was populated by Native Americans, and that Europeans were the first group of people from ‘outside’ to take/steal/occupy this land. And it was a clash of civilizations in different levels of development.

        Neither group was peace-loving.

    • I’m curious, do the YouTube videos that talk about what happens when they extend a hand of friendship, I guess, through the curtain and draw the new member in to show them the history of the Mormon Church and the North American continent tell the truth? I was surprised, if I remember correctly, that E.T. aliens were also included in that belief system.

      Or am I getting too personal?

  6. The high school in question has a population of over 3000. That is large than many small cities. Really hard to really get a grip on what the population is thinking and planning. Also the FBI had been for warned of a person bragging about being a “career high school shooter” but could not identify the on line origin. ALSO the school (as per MSM posting) had restricted the suspect from having a back pack on property? (Why , if they felt that way did they just not ban the subject from the property?? not that it would have done much good.
    I do not blame the AR 15 or the bullet’s.
    In this case I blame a overly large school with an administration the was not (or could not due to layers of bureaucracy), paying attention to multiple signs and did not appear to be PRO ACTIVE in following up on what, from reports, were multiple and very serious allegations and reports by students. Seems the students knew there was a problem the administration didn’t.
    It is high time for schools and all soft targets to become pro active. (maybe Israel has it right, there are NO soft targets.)
    Well George , It sadly seems your time line is correct. I’m sure it does not make you feel particularly good to be right in this case.
    God bless the fallen students and their families.

    • Um, am I the only one missing the blood and the interview with a student who walked out with the supposed perp (now scrubbed from YT and elsewhere) didn’t quite jive?

      • No George, you’re not alone. I have a copy of a video referencing the girl and her conversation with the suspect. There was an immediate rush to judgement, just like so many other bad events. The student that’s currently accused has all but been convicted in the court of public opinion, even though a girl was walking with him during the event and she thought there was a second shooter. As usual, these things are not a TV crime drama and the full story seems to have elements that cannot be revealed. Under US law, people are innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. In my mind, I’m reserving any thoughts/feelings other than sympathy for real victims and disgust with the media spectacle.

        BTW, is the memo contents being investigated and THOSE perps being charged?

  7. Ure complete absence of any words of sympathy and caring directed towards any of the “thousands” suffering through the after-effects of yesterday’s atrocity, while instead choosing to give Ure credit and Kudos to “Alex informed source Jones”,who, I guess is, Ure idea of an informed source..makes me think it really may be TOO LATE for Ure escape from the “piney woods”!

    Then, not to be ‘left’ out of Ure latent bias towards uncovering any “liberal” source of historical inaccuracies, you morph into the authority of, in Ure view, the fact All Native Americans were murderous savages who deserved All that the “righteous new invaders” dished out to them. And if the lying, scumbag liberals would stop lying about their miserable existence..just maybe Ure fellow “non-natives” could finally take back All those damn reservations land and put some real Americans in charge of the casinos so Ure gambling forays could win some damn money?

    • Yeah, Al, do you really think anyone here isn’t sympathetic, compassionate, and upset about what happened at that school? We just want to know why, not hear the mantra of take the guns. The liberals own the press, they lie constantly, they use propaganda against all of us. Grow up, or go somewhere else.

      • Agenda, Thank you for giving me the benefit of your interpretation of my comments meant for the OWNER of this Blog. Also thank you for giving me YOUR input (not assed 4) as to why ALL Evils in today’s Society can be traced back to a simple cause of
        .”The liberals own the press, they lie constantly, they use propaganda against all of us”, and Oh Yes:”the take our guns” of which was used to KILL 17 Kids and Teachers!
        If “growing up” equates to Your level of enlightenment..I prefer my playing in the sandbox and hide-and-go seek.
        I guess I might just stick around..but thanks for the advice.

    • Yeah lighten up is what it is and it goes on.Opinions are like assholes,everyone got one but some stink more than others.

      • scot from Philly..I would prefer to be addressed as “the dude”, if you don’t mind.
        In general, the “stench stinker scale” associated with the output passing through,and spread over.. in several unpleasantly possible states of consistency..the rectal caused by the output of said area, being in direct proportion to the toxicity of inputs to the vat of human existence.
        Along with the afore mentioned, simple cause and effect equation:”garbage in = garbage out”, the hygienic task of cleansing said area ie. reprogramming via new found knowledge and code..could change the rating scale from one of “STFU” to “Hmmm, that’s an interesting way to look at it”?

  8. I can also recommend: “War before civilization: the myth of the peaceful savage” by Lawrence H. Keeley.

    Mr. Keeley demolishes the idea of pre-civilizational peoples being peaceful anywhere on the planet.

  9. George,
    Did you watch the lab film back in the 60s
    with the rats? Lots of food,water,room.
    When they were over populated,they killed
    each other.One rat was left,he was crazy.

  10. From a bit more arcane P.O.V.: Maybe the folks who brought us MKUltra (look it up – its real) have calculated that in order to keep a population terrorized (or perhaps compassion fatigued) that they need to program terror type events on a regular schedule. Or maybe they are honing their skills for the time when they can mind control the masses with the coming 5 G technology (that has ALREADY been weaponized by the DOD for military purposes). The strange thing is that the “official version” of these events rarely stand up to real scrutiny but the anomalies don’t seem to interest the “bulldog” presstitutes in the least.

  11. No Isis connection, but he did believe Florida should be an all-white ethno state:

    (Your book recommendation on Native Americans,your Obama bashing and previous puppeting of Breitbart’s Hispanic bashing suggests you would agree with that viewpoint):

    Smaller mass shootings occur frequently, no 145 day cycle:

    • With an 85% European majority in 1960 America went to the moon.
      With a 62% Europe fraction in 2018 we are going to the trough for regular bailouts.
      Now, I don’t know your IQ but that is the data, like it our not.
      To some, it is suggestive.

      • George, shame on you! If in 2018, the 1% of top income folks took 82% of profits generated, then look at THE same figures for 1960…… no more of this foolish comparing apples to mazaratis. You know better! !!!

        • ONE of the best examples or us8ingt statistics to sell shame – ever!
          I’m not going to open a remedial math class unless I have to, but…
          If in 1960 minority wealth is 1-10th that of majority (say 10k and 100K) the ratio is 10:1
          Add 50% inflation.
          Now the minority fraction is $15 k and and the white fraction is 150k – the ratio is unchanged.
          Moreover, if you know how to read data (which seems not the case) the decline in the white fraction of income has been it’s under attack. Minority incomes are virtually unchanged.
          So, you see, it’s a shaming game, not an excellence game…and the white minority ratio was best in the mid 1950’s but lately the improvement in the ratio has come from reducing one group (white)_ rather than bringing up the other (minority).
          Shame seller! We need better education for ALL and work opptys not social bullshit and fake school shootings with a gun grab agenda.
          Oh wait, you missed the part about the Russian take-down of America and the sacrifice pawn play of perestroika?

      • As much as I am a passionate believer in science, and the exploration of the Universe, the driving force behind the first steps to the moon in the 1960’s was a man who developed ‘rockets’ for the Nazis. The pursuit of knowledge is amoral (without morality).

        (But in the same time period, I had an engineer uncle, who we were not allowed to mention, who made nuclear missiles. If that had been ‘honorable’ – why not acknowledge his existence?)

  12. I think the ideal use for an electric airplane would be in a motorglider. It could take off under its own power and get to a reasonable altitude. Then fold the motor, glide for hours, or until nature calls, and land normally. It would also be a safety to avoid undesirable landing locations. I can also see an electric aircraft for pleasure, since there’s no engine noise, lower maintenance, and much reduced vibration. Unless going on a long XC, it could be flown locally and if more flight time is wanted, just land and change batteries. Just think of aerobatics-no concerns about inverted fuel and oil systems, no precession on a shock loaded crankshaft, easy multi-motor setups, etc.

    • Stemmi makes a dandy already – 180 hp and folding prop for gliding – no extension cord

      Chumley said the S12 really has two flying modes—traveling, when you’re under continuous power, and soaring. The airplane cruises at 140 knots true airspeed at 10,000 feet, he said; Chumley frequently flies at 12,500 feet when going cross-country. It has a range of 945 nautical miles.

      That’s called German Engineering

  13. Bless the students and teacher who were gunned down at the Florida School. Peace to the mothers, fathers and family of the teacher who passed. In regards to the “murder cycle” I am uncertain that mentally ill killers are on a schedule. Maybe this guy read about the The St Valentines day massacre back in the 20’s and decided to copycat?

    • And yet, who saw victims> – there is an odd resonance here – timing, victims, newsa cycling, disappearing videos like the one I just watched with the girl who walked out of the school with the alleged perp hearing gunshots from elsewhere.
      Absent bodies, is ALL as it is represented, or is there a war for conquest, or gun seizures, and more in the offing>

      • Yeah the police for carrying out bags of stuff so it looks like there’s more than one shooter and since this was a drill beforehand. Just like Vegas there was more than one shooter and there were people that were hurt and there were actors there too and it’s a drill

      • There is ALWAYS more in the offing. FBI ignoring the warnings. Schools still acting like their hands are tied and they can’t figure out a way to stop a shooting on campus. Active Shooter Drills, Psychiatric Drugs, Mental Illness. Any way you look at it, there are lots of ‘failings’, but the democrats and the easily swayed masses just want to focus on the ‘GUN.’ Meantime, 3500 people got killed on our highways in 2017, 1000 hit and runs. One thing you notice is the AGENDA never sleeps.

  14. Georgia couple years older than me and I could look up to you like my older brother and I can say Hey kid off of it buddy spend $50 to $50,000 try this new thing out you’re too old school get off of it come on now maybe your younger brother and I’m trying to tell you to get off of what you’re doing the stock market is dead the banks are dead let’s move on as younger brother but going out to the pasture so are you going to take my advice or you or you going to go whole hog and go 50000 because you know that partner that you had Clif high is right he may have been wrong about a lot of predictions but he is so spot-on accurate about George rough couple years older than me and I could look up to you like my older brother and I can say hey Can off of it buddy spend $50 to $50,000 try this new thing out you’re too old school get off of it come on now maybe you’re younger brother and I’m trying to tell you to get off of what you’re doing the stock market is dead the banks are dead this move on as you younger brother I’d say hey invest in this not the old stuff because the old stuff is dead but going out to the pasture so are you going to take my advice or what are you going to least try 50 bucks get into coin base or you going to go a whole hog and go 50000 because you know that partner that you had cliff hi is right he may have been wrong about a lot of predictions but he is so spot on accurate about the Bitcoin market he last year predicted everything that’s going to happen now and it’s happening so if you have a beef with him I suggest you get over it and get on the train and let’s do some stuff that you’re good at all right because the stock market is not good anymore Bitcoin like coin and all the others are Bitcoin is not going to last forever and the other alternate coins are going to take up wear it left off.
    Respectively trying to tell you as a younger brother get off your old age Kik and look into the young stuff that’s getting ready to happen…. may all beings be lovingly fulfill so be it

    • I’m sorry I’m coming down on you so hard there but it really doesn’t matter as long as you are happy.

      I’m happy. Lol

    • No.. if you check.. it started with the NAFTA treaty….
      as jobs left the USA for greater profit potentials for companies.. bigger exec bonuses etc.. the American Housewife had to go to work.. today it gets worse because the parents no longer just work two jobs but three or more to keep up with a work a day world that has pushed the laborers to be dependent on social programs for survival..
      when most of us were little we had siblings.. parents that had one job, weekend outings now that work has pushed the american family and the costs have cut how many children a family has, has left the american family with one maybe two children and a tv.. daycare and the discipline and guidance of a parental system that is decades gone to the winds of corporate fortunes.

  15. The American Indian was an amazing killing machine. In virtually every Indian dialect, the word for “stranger” is the same as the word for “enemy” (and BTW the word for “lie” didn’t exist, because the concept was foreign to them until Europeans introduced them to “duplicity.”)

    Those not of an Indian’s tribe were to be killed, and if possible, tortured. The brave gained status within his tribe by killing and stealing because these were the measure of a “good provider.” The measure of the greatness of his victory in battle was determined by how long his vanquished foe survived the torture. Prisoners who lived through days of torture often had their hearts eaten by their captors, who believed the bravery of the vanquished would thus transfer to them.

    The village was sacred. The Indian did not rape or steal amongst his tribe, and killing was by duel, and a rarity. A stranger could ride into any village and unless he or she broke tribal law, could expect to ride out. He might be killed on the trail, but was safe until beyond the village itself.

    With very few exceptions, adult prisoners (anyone who’d reached full puberty) brought into a village would die. Women would be gang-raped then tortured or killed offhand, men would just be tortured to death, usually by the women of the tribe.

    The talk of the “peaceful, noble Indian” began amongst the “educated East Coast elite,” many of whom had never seen an Indian, let alone a “wild Indian,” back before the Civil War. It is not a “rewrite” of history as much as it is “an erudite fantasy” perpetrated by people without actual knowledge, but with an academic pedigree which deludes the uninformed into believing they know of what they speak.

    It was the beginning of the “disconnect” between the Coasters and the realities of life, which plagues us, more and more, even today…

      • The annoying thing about the “bleeding heart club” is everything I posted above, I learned in my elementary and Jr High History classes. I can still remember my 6th Grade class’ reaction to the “eating hearts” thing, and my teacher’s explanation of how such was a display of respect by peoples whose ultimate virtue was bravery.

  16. George, I was trying to piece together The Murder Cycle / Timeline would you comment on the accuracy of my research.

    February 14, 2018 ~ School Shooting – Parkland, Florida

    October 2, 2017 ~ Las Vegas Shooting

    May 28, 2017 ~ Bogue Chitto, MS – 8 dead
    May 28, 2017 ~ 12 people shot Phenix City Alabama
    May 20, 2017 ~ North Philadelphia – 9 shot

    January 6, 2017 ~ Fort Lauderdale airport shooting

    September 23, 2016 Houston, 9 shot
    September 23, 2016 Cascade Mall shooting 5 dead

    June 12, 2016 ~ Orlando nightclub shooting

    February 20, 2016 ~ Kalamazoo shootings – 6 dead 2 wounded

    December 2, 2015, San Bernardino 14 dead 22 injured

    August 8, 2015 ~ Harris County, Texas, near Houston. 8 dead
    August 8, 2015 ~ Blytheville, AR 1 dead 11 wounded


    December 14, 2012 ~ Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting

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