Durable goods and trade in a sec. Something to get off my chest first.
We actually know people off to the left of Texas who got up early (like 5 AM) in order to watch the coverage of the Mueller “event” staged, near as we can figure, to keep the American public distracted and divided.
Instead, after our Peoplenomics report, thanks to abnormally cool temps, (no claimate change here…) I was able to mow all 2.8 acres of lawn, edge everything including the fence line (to a point) plus dial in the daily dose of fertlizers for the hydroponic systems, water the garden, and make a delicious breakfast.
Our friends – glued to the charade – got mostly a nothing burger. The real meaningful questions (asked by the GOP) were largely not answered and frankly, I was left (watching key parts of the replay) that Mueller ought to be held in contempt of Congress because he failed to answer questions under Oath and he “didn’t go there” to the questions that mattered.
That’s how the workings of America go, lately. But there’s a reason why: The radical left has largely infiltrated and overcome social media platforms. This has happened in a couple of ways.
First are the employees of social. Sure, there are plenty of bright people out there, but if you follow the revelations of a certain Google engineer, you’ll see there’s a boat load of politics involved. The engineer, 5-years at Google and a PhD. says in the video over here that he’s seen the search giant merge with “big media” and the democrat party.
We have been warning you for a good long time that this “take over” of the nation’s headspace was in the offing and we call it the arising Digital Mob Rule.
The way it works is simple: If you disagree with the left’s agenda, they can turn down organic search.
Then there is social media which not only has the internal (liberal bias of employees, most of whom are too young to understand how they are nothing less than corpgov shills (as children are easily misled) but they also allow things like shadow-banning conservative viewpoints.
But then comes the bad part: Reporting and Retweeting software. These are tools by which a handful of people can report and retweet to make it seem like there’s a groundswell of public support for idiots like AoC and the Climate Hoax while the weather always changes and AoC is just another would-be revolutionary with a big mouth and no track record except in fooling people.
Ground long tilled.
But the other thing that happened yesterday was what? The Dow dropped 79 points. And, if you’re not clear on what we do around here, you might have been left with the impression that the market declined on the Mueller fable.
Nothing could be further from the truth here, either. That’s because while it’s true that the very narrow Dow 30 was down as reported, the S&P 500 was up more than 13 points and the NASDAQ Composite slammed in another 70 upside points. Our Aggregate went up on the day, Dow notwithstanding.
This is just like the lies and misperceptions spread by social media. A single narrow 30 stock index does not a market make. Which is why we developed and use an Aggregate Index approach to norm-out as much of the misperceptions and lies as we can. Mostly, that’s on the Peoplenomics side because of the old saying: If something is free, people tend not to value it.
Since I suggest to you that our work was calling for a final full-tilt blast into the middle to end of August time frame, the Aggregate Index has moved up 251 points. What’s more, except for the normal “end of the month” squaring up decline in the next week or so, the way ahead still seems up.
But now we warm to the next deception to watch. What will the Federal Reserve do when it meets next week? A lot of self-labeling “experts” are calling for them to drop rates a quarter point. This will be a major decision for the Fed because…
For the Rate Drop:
- The Fed knows that if rates are high, the cost of funding that ballooning national debt will become much more expensive and that could result in a runaway condition. (We assume you know that the House originates spending and you haven’t been misled by the lies about Trump being a big spender?)
- What the Fed also knows is that if they don’t keep growth going (with money that’s almost free), they won’t be able to engineer a crash late next spring which would turn the economy into the lead issue for 2020. As things are now, the economy should already have been in recession but because of Ben Bernanke’s “lower for longer” rate regimen and because of the onshoring due to the tax cuts, we have been living in the economic version of alternate reality.
But Arguing Against a Rate Cut
- A rate cut will enable the Fed to get away with watering down our money even more. I assume you know that a US dollar today has less than 4-cents of purchasing power left compared with when the (misnamed) Fed seized the money reigns from a derelict Congress in 1913?
- A rate cut now, will almost assuredly make things worse down the road. The Fed, by lowering now, is set to replay the same kind of Bubblicious top that came in 1929.
- Lowering rates when times are good will result in too much economic largess and that will cause the Fed (when the real crash comes) to have nowhere to go but into negative interest rates.
Prfeemptive rate lowering seems to be the “new thing” going around: E.C.B. Says It’s Ready to Restart Economic Stimulus Measures. Has the world lost its freakin mind?
You’re welcome to pick and choose – it’s really a damned if you do, damned if you don’t. But since everyone is into kicking cans down the road, a quarter point cut would not surprise us and it would propel the top to amazing heights…but we’ve been watching the USA avoid another (Second) Depression for two decades now and it’s an amazing spectacle with things like the Tech Bubble turned Tech Wreck. The Housing Ownership no doc loan frenzy, which begat the Housing Crash. And now? Not sure what to call this, except pandering to socialists who want to stiff not only the world (watering down our money’s purchasing power) but also regular people who will get screwed for saving.
Just like the House decided to dial-back the write offs for interest and local taxes to $10,000 a year, you can bet that the greedy pricks (and prickettes and horsewomen) will soon figure out they can bring back a gains tax on real estate on “high end homes” and while the gullible masses cheer, that will be guillotined down to lower and lower levels and suddenly we’ve gone backwards.
In sociology the problem we face as a culture is something called “ratcheting.”
The idea is if one generation learned something, the next generation should haven’t to relearn it.
We are now stuck in “relearning mode” on social and political matters.
It’s that way in Tech, as well. Popular Mechanics reported in 1905 that a Post Office was testing an electric delivery vehicle. Here was are 114-years later and what? Post Offices are still testing electric vehicle ideas.
See how stupid the notion of “progress” has become? Similarly, percentage wise, we have just as many poor as we did when the “Great Society” socialist rise began. Still got poor people and we still don’t have genuine “equal opportunity” for all.
I could go on, but it’s been a fine study for me over more than half a century from when I reported my first news story – on a train derailment near Snohomish, Washington in 1969. Trains are still derailing. But what’s changes is that’s no longer news. The Charade is…and it’s a queer thing to behold, at best.
Durables and Trade
This will be short and to the point. Durables first:
“New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $4.9 billion or 2.0 percent to $246.0 billion,the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases,followed a 2.3 percent May decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.1 percent. ”
The second report out covered trade and oh, look, the “trade war” hasn’t collapsed anything: Down a little bit, but some of that we’d lay off onto Boeing for the Max jet issues… (Domestic fallout continues from that as… )
The market, after the numbers showed the Dow up another hundred and the other indices were also mainly in the green. But no surprise, since we told you a long time back where this was going – before we go down.
Things to Know
A scene from Back to the Future? French inventor fails in attempt to cross the English Channel on hoverboard, wife vows ‘he will do it again’.
Boris Johnson replaces Theresa May as the UK’s new prime minister but the reral question is when will the sometimes rational Brits get out from unders the thumb of the pricks in Brussels?
Speaking of hot air from the EU:.
The military keeps working: Navy tests future amphibious attack strategy. We have a simple strategy to suggest: Tell the Navy’s Marines there are bars open ashore…everyone else can follow.
Under the radar: Ukraine Seizes Russian Tanker in Kerch Strait. This seize for tat action could get dangerous…
On that note, on to real work with more on the ‘morrow…