Migration is a Money & Growth Addiction Problem

Before anything else this morning (including our latest “told you so” on markets) we have to look at couple of immigration stories under the harsh light of cash flow analysis.

The first story to consider is this:  “U.S. Begins Immigration Crackdown on Central Americans. “

Again, government is operating as a bad comedian – telegraphing the punchline ahead of time: These “raids” have been carefully announced weeks in advance – giving the serious criminals plenty of time to relocate and to avoid the “sweep.”  Theatrics or Kabuki, it’s a poor show.

As an aficionado of classic R&B, might I suggest an old Johnny Mathis and Deniece Williams song captures the reality nicely?

Meantime, back at hard Reality: The Obama administration is about to shed immigration caps through the presidential decree process – also known as executive orders.

If this seems contradictory and confusing, please consider that it is merely a “flow of funds” problem.

The reason for the publicly touted “raids” is that Americans are reading stories, almost daily, about the mayhem the non-assimilating populations are causing in Eurabian cities like those in Germany.

But when the facts are collected, it becomes apparent that the immigrant population of America is still on trajectory set to grow the immigrant population massively: In fact “ Immigrant Population to Increase 715% by 2060, Census Data Show.”

What we come to is that the ugliest secret of capitalism is alive and well:  Capitalism – in order not to fall apart – must always operate in the “growth mode.”  By doing so, there is a good chance that a virtuous cycle can be realized.  think of it as positive feedback.

But when growth disappears, what happens?  Suddenly the reverse occurs.  Demand for social services climb, the cost of government soars, and programs sold as a social net – like Social Security – face long-term bankruptcy because of actuarial finance:  The demand for benefits will outstrip the income within 20-years, or so.  Answer?  More people to pay more into the system!

This unfunded long-term retirement liability is powering the EU’s inflows, as well.

Which means, simply put:  Government must ensure growth at any cost.  The German stock market has outperformed the other markets of Europe since 2009 in large part because they have embraced immigration.

The Krauts got onto the mechanics of this when the Wall came down in 1989.  Rather than experience a mini-depression from assimilation of East Germany, there was something of a boom.  And so with their economy needing constant reinforcement, bring in the foreigners!

Yet there is a terrible cost of unchecked immigration.  We’re just seeing reports this morning of how more than 1,000 immigrant men went on a rape and pillage New Years:

German police hunt for group of up to 1,000 men ‘of Arab and North African origin’ who sexually assaulted numerous women and threw fireworks into crowds at Cologne train station on New Year’s Eve…

The U.S. MainStreamMedia (MSM) is incapable of reporting events like this widely – they are effectively owned by statist corporations who have an economic interest in the continuous-growth model’s perpetuation.   No change is good change, in a manner of….

As we revealed to our Peoplenomics.com subscribers last week, this concept of a “permanent migration” from poor countries to rich can be traced back to a World Bank growth document from 2008 where the idea was that growth from immigration would be a good thing.

And it is, at least from an indentures to pay social costs perspective.  But it is initially addictive and then indispensible – which is why no change in regimen is possible in a leadership void.

But it is certainly less so, especially for innocents who simply wanted to take a train home at Cologne, Germany on New Years.  Officialdom will suppress or paper over the sharper edges of the New Reality.

Bottom Line:  Immigration is about money:  More people means more tax revenue.  That shouldn’t be too hard to grasp.  The failure of both corporate-sponsored political parties in the land once known as America is neither is especially good nor “transparent” – a word made meaningless by the doublespeakers in the District of Confusion.

As ugly as immigration disaster is at a human level, there is a pile-on when large numbers of lobbying groups figure out that in order to create a good reason to immigrate, a series of wars are just the ticket. 

But that’s what is really happening:  A series of unfortunate cash flows in a financial system addicted to growth at any cost.

Given that immigration, particularly of people not keen on assimilation, is highly emotional, we choose to look at things from the money angle which is much more useful in predicting future zigs and zags of policy.

In the 3-5 year planning horizon, we look for the U.S., to continue importing huge numbers of people from other nations.  That will likely continue until such time as immigrants actually take over governments in Europe (as part of the Second Muslim Conquest) sometime in that timeframe.

While that will likely shock American officialdumb, it may come too late as we should be in a pernicious Depression by then.  Pencil 2017/2018 into 2025 for that.

We’re just full of Joy and Glad tidings this morning, aren’t we?  This is not doomporn, at least of the usual sort.  It’s more akin to modeling reality and projecting the speed bumps.

From the larger historical perspective, the West was in the middle of the Crusades around 1,183.

We find that if we simple add 750-years to this (using the founding of Islam as about 750) that there may be something of a “design pattern” to what happens to religions when they get to be about 1,200 years old.  They go on an expansion program.

We is there, bubba.

Although not useful to you and me directly  (because we will be long-gone) it may be of interest to your children’s children’s children’s children that a Reformation-like character might be predicted for Islam in the future.

Since we know that Martin Luther nailed up the 95-Theses in 1517, adding 750 (approximately) to this means the Reformation-equivalent might appear in the Islamic faith around 2267, plus or minus a couple of decades.  by then, I expect a long list than 95.

At least that’s how things look from here in Texas Outback where we’re waiting out the Technological Dark Ages…

Do please remember that Islam has one huge selling point over interest-bearing Western religions:  By nature of Sharia (buy-sell, and no interest), their economic models are adaptive (think resilient) to both economic expansion and contraction.  They don’t need to “make-up” money.

In  the West, short-sellers (like me) are typically vilified by perpetual growth racketeers who hold no respect for the planet’s carrying capacity.  Nor can they comprehend, that like Algebra, Muslims do get things right.

If we’re to survive as a world, we need to shop “best practices” wherever we find them, but such pragmatism is hard to swallow, let alone explain to the True Believers of the American Illusion..

The War Games

It further goes without saying that in order to power the immigration-growth model, there needs to be massive ongoing displacement of humans.

For this we look to the pending regional war in the Middle East.

This is very much like choosing up sides for dodge-ball, but of course large projectiles, some likely to be fissile, are likely.

The NY Times has a dandy “scouting report” on how the teams are choosing up side, over here.

In the meantime, our oak leaf cluster-wearing military affairs expert (who we only call warhammer to protect his ID) caught this:

George,

This snippet, one that I personally wouldn’t openly advertised to America’s adversaries, was in today’s Air Force Association Daily Report:

Yes:  There is a Bomb Shortage

Except:  The Air Force is indeed experiencing a “shortfall” in “all categories” of munitions, due to the air campaign against ISIS over the last 15 months, but so far is “managing” its global stockpiles such that there’s no impact on operations yet, an Air Force spokeswoman told Air Force Magazine Monday.

You really need to read the article, especially in light of the perception that the current CiC was (until the Russians engaged)  spending a whole bunch of ordnance for very little effect.  Which we now can see will make certain defense contractors deliriously happy.  And did I mention rich?

Cash flows from policy, does it not?

A Market “Told You So”

Remember the chart from yesterday?  Well, I took the closing from Monday, tossed in what the futures are projecting from this morning and you’ll see that we are in a dandy position to hit right to the middle of my green “minimum target” for this decline.

I won’t even begin to tell you how our view of markets works, but let’s just say that it’s based on the notion that all markets are interconnected and that looking ONLY at domestic markets can be terribly misleading.

To the left of the green target zone, there is a pink circle which is how this kind of turn played out in similar positions in the past, specifically 2011:

Tomorrow, in our Peoplenomics report, we will explore the larger picture of how all this fits into the replay of the 1921 to 1929 period.

The main feature this time around is the kind and type of mass migration taking place. 

In the previous economic cycle, the migration path was off the family farm and into the cities.  In this cycle we actually have two migrations.  One is the importation of new residents because government needs additional tax chattel.  The other migration is from living and working in the physical world to most people spending at least some portion of their days living and working in the Virtual Realms.

When the Great Depression hit its stride in the 1930’s – and people suddenly found themselves without jobs – they also found that they could not “back-migrate to the family farms” – most of those had been foreclosed upon.

Since the Internet is an economic enterprise, we can now project when to expect the Internet licensing to arrive – which I forecast in my 2012 book Broken Web The Coming Collapse of the Internet.

If the phone stops ringing today, I may be able to pin an approximate date on Internet regulation for Peoplenomics readers tomorrow.

Only a couple of other economic notes:  the futures are bouncing around, but I would not be surprised to see the week end in the green circle above, or the yellow one if something goes off the rails in the Middle East.

The other item for today is auto sales which will drib-drab out through the day.  But, since this is one of the major items keeping the economy afloat, it is worth watching.

Tomorrow we get the first of three job numbers…

How to Monetize Everything

One of the utter joys of living on a money-crazed planet is that sooner, or later, it seems like everything gets monetized.

Take the highways:  Once paid for with tax dollars, they still are – but then they somehow get “flipped” into semi-private hands who then take a “public asset” and utilize it for their gain.  Sometimes foreign corporations, this is a practice which, if you are I had done it as persons, not entities, would set up up for theft-by-conversion charges.

Take prisons.  Once upon a time, getting out for “good behavior” was something that meant something to inmates.  But now, since many prisons have been monetized via prison management corporations, the prison actually has a vested interest in keeping prisoners jailed for as long as possible – they make more money that way.

So it comes as no surprise when this morning’s headlines reveal that there is now the “Smell of Vladimir Putin” that has gone on sale as revealed in this morning’s Washington Post article ‘Leaders Number One’: The Putin-inspired fragrance.

We have to presume that next will come a Scent d’ Obama – and I will leave it to your fertile imagination as to what that would be comprised of.

At the macro level this does one thing nicely:  It underscores that current global governance stinks.