Short and to the point this morning. Seems like I’ve been in this damned chair all weekend. (I really have been…)
First remark has to do with Bitcoin – which is down to $7,225.
When you compare the “classic bubble of 1929” with the shape of the Bitcoin blow-off, it’s not very encouraging for the coiners:
Looking at this in our odd view of things, what we see is a downward trend channel that has been broken to the upside. So we see five complete waves down and the True Believers among the coiners will doubtless point to this as a sure sign the bottom is in.
We suspected as much when the break above trend happened, but Bitcoin is FAR from out of the woods. For one, it could be ready to put in a new low – and from there, it would be disaster.
Not right away, of course. There should be one more rally up to give a C wave, and then back down we can go – again.
OR, the upward march may resume.
Even so, if you are a long-term investor, you have to look at the point where Bitcoin gets seriously real. That’s when we move up to a level higher than the all-time high. That would turn the longest-term view into a massive Wave 1 up, this would be the Massive 2 down, and then Wave 3 would fulfill some of the coiner’s wet dreams.
BUT, if we get one more run up and it fails, then the bearish case builds and any new lows after that and you can get the butter and jam out: Bitcoin will be toast.
They are (as one would expect) mixed with the U.S. down for the holiday. With the U.S. Navy playing footsie with the large Chinese naval force in the South China Sea, we’re only perhaps days from what could be an international incident of the Archduke Ferdinand-scale….so we keep a nervous eye West.
And, gas prices might be nearing their summer highs: Oil sinks further as OPEC and Russia look to raise output.
Except for China (up a bit we expect on muscle-flexing) the rest of the world is essentially asleep. Gold was down $3.70 earlier, but it’s still hanging in the $1,280-$1,320 range. We will try to arrange a wake-up call for you if anything moves.
Not Climate Change!
These are the “Elliott Waves” that kill people quickly. The ones in economics are more sluggish about it.
Meanwhile, the Weather Channel and others are watching the subtropical depression roll into the Florida Panhandle.
Another Elliott point: There’s an Elliott Key off Homestead…save that for Financial Trivia night.
Obama’s Vichy Government
No UK Press Freedom
Here’s another example of why we don’t believe in kneeling to royalty.
Outdoors or Homeless?
We expect to be inundated with reports on The Summit: The Trump-Kim Summit Appears to Be Back on Track. But the U.S. Has Lost Leverage, but that’s Time’s opinion.
Leverage in these things comes down to military power and money.
Time to go…must play now.
Moron the ‘morrow, then…