Markets: Trump on Way Out?

This is one of those columns it sickens me to write.  But, since we believe our approach to be data-driven, there are some elements in news headlines and in the technical formation of the market that offer the prospect of a presidential departure and succession in the near future. Mid-2019?

This morning, we scrap our usual orderly format to focus on this one critical point.

Because we need to “think the unthinkable” in order to stay ahead of the pack.  To do that, we need to consider how it will all be played out. 

In doing so, hopefully, we’ll be able to protect our personal capital and understand the flow of “news to come…”

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28 thoughts on “Markets: Trump on Way Out?”

  1. How to deal with a servere market downturn. Only one way in the NOW (the present) because nothing can be done to change the past.

    What is the NOW? None other than the power of your presence, your consciousness liberated from thought forms. So deal with the past on the level of the present. The more attention you give to the past, the more you energize it, and the more likely you are to make a “self” out of it. Don’t misunderstand: Attention is essential, but not to the past as past. Give attention to the present; give attention to your behavior, to your reactions, moods, thoughts, emotions, fears, and desires as they occur in the present. There’s the past in you. If you can be present enough to watch all those things, not critically or analytically but nonjudgmentally, then you are dealing with the past and dissolving it through the power of your presence.

    This allows you to focus & develop your plan to financially take advantage of the market downturn, free of the past. It is simply another opportunity not to be discarded. Opportunity knocks, but you have to answer the door.

  2. Nixon was totally a political animal, Trump is not. Trump is an “owner” with the mindset that the ebb and flow of popularity is froth. If he wants a wall, he will hold out until he gets it. He doesn’t psychologically need the cover of committees and bureaucrats, he is content to pursue his goals as the owner of the task/position. Like him or hate him, he is the embodiment of what is necessary to right the ship. That said, even if he succeeds to some small degree, I agree the historical cycles are maturing to a total collapse. Whether by ice age or epidemic or infrastructure crumble we are headed to a significant die off and lapse into a dark age. JMHO

    And its probably a good thing for the preservation of humans!

  3. Man o Manischewtz! I come here just about everyday, sometimes twice for PE, for the Entertainment. I gain tons of insight, new knowledge and ideas reading and adsorbing all that is written and posted..big bang for my entertainment dollar..UrbSUrv is FREE!
    Anyway G, I am really enjoying watching you talk yourself out of the Bear Market conviction you have held for ages. But as we enter into “The Great Bear Market of 2018”, you keep trying to convince yourself that it is not happening, or will end soon.
    Worldwide (ALL) Debt has grown beyond limits ever thought possible just 5 years ago. On top of this fetid pile of Fiat, central banks have been at 0% interest, or worse..Negative rate. This is GUARANTEED to end in disaster. Think sovereign governments having to refinance .015% interest loans at 5% – ECONOMIC DEATH.
    USA Patriots vs New/Old World Order – this is GUARANTEED spill Blood and Treasure – tons of it.
    USA Trade/Tech/$$ War with the ChiComms – will not end well…never does.

    So debear wants to give “uncle G” a shout out! – U called it out, charted it out and reasoned out.

    p.s. for the brainwashed and triggered Trump haters, it would be wise to remember one of the Donald’s fav negotiations tactics – always appear to be weaker and or inferior position. Winter is Here.

  4. Lets face it Trump was/is not the man to ocuppy the oval office, for there is vast difference between candidate Trump and president Trump, for he came into office with his own set of devils ridding his shoulder, and one of those is his own son-in-law, and then you have his own cabinet old left overs from other administrations who never performed in those pass administrations much like the Bush administration.
    He should have cleaned out the FBI and other departments upon taking office, but lacked the ability or foresight to do so ,and yes your right without a doubt Trump will not be upon the scene in the 2020 election for he will have long depart to where he’s better liked….

    • Listen up, Kissinger met with him quite soon after becoming President. Kissinger has been giving the marching orders to several Presidents in HIS lifetime. It was like watching Bush 2 meet with Greenspan, BEFORE the war was announced, but long AFTER it was already planned and financed (right Andy?). This “Come to MEETUS Meetings” of new Presidents is not new. They televise them just to brag on owner’s rights.

  5. For us retired, nice to see a 2.8% increase in Social Security for 2019. This is a great country. A SS lump sum option would be the ruin of retirement stability. Assuming you do not die prematurely, a lifetime monthly SS payment yields a much higher return & prevents the retiree from squarndering or mismanaging his or her SS benefit. Originally, SS never expected us to live this long. Also, President Trump is on SS. He is one of us.

  6. George,

    You may have hated writing it…but I loved reading it. You made several great points, but the one that resonated the most was that Trump was out of sync with the rest of the world…True, but he is also out of sync with most Americans right now. They’re sick and tired of his ego/reputation first mentality. He makes everything all about him. I saw it on Day One when he maniacally pumped up his inaugeration crowd numbers. He hasn’t stopped his self promotion since. Even this early morning Tweet is all about him…@realDonaldTrump “Totally clears the President. Thank you!”

    That Tweet was in reference to Michael Cohens sentencing recommendations. Hey Donny Boy…That’s not how the law works. Michael Cohen just snitched and has dirt on you…How does that clear you? Trump is showing exponentially growing signs of his Yuuge weaknesses. And even much of his base gets it now. They have had two years to monitor the Smoke and mirrors and now see that he is just another in a long line of blustery and corrupted politicians. The result? Not a Blue Wave…with 40 gains in The House…That is a Blue Tsunami. It was a referendum that Both the Senate and House GOP will need to seriously study as they move forward. My Take is that they all want to cut the cord in the name of job security. As corrupted as politics is anyway…Trump exacerbates the problem.

    And I am not sure why anyone is surprised. Trump, in his private life ran an extremely corrupt business…complete with a stable of lawyers ready to defend that would have been the envy of the Gambino’s And Gotti families. Both families as it turns out, Trump has done business with courtesy of his ties to Roy Cohn, consigliere to Fat Tony Salerno of SA Concrete,, Carmine Galante and notable Gambino crime boss Paul Castellano. I have several real estate friends in New York and this is well known in the Manhattan circles…as I am sure Mueller has already done his research on with the main sources involved.

    • Do realize how little info you possess to really conclude that way? Watch how this really plays out, then we’ll chat.

  7. Is the market cycle anomaly George is seeing the market trading bots of the BIG guys at the very top of the pyramid working a new algorithm. With the advent of the index etfs and computer bot trading, not so hard for big money to move market to bot trigger points.

    • No, I think it was too sudden for that…but a good point to noodle. I mean the range of this oscillator just basically doubled in a two week period and that range expansion has continued…

      • I’m not financial genius but on Thurs. the fed said no more interest rate hikes. Fri. morning after the stock bump they reversed course and said raise interest rates more. Now not being into all that CON-spiracy thoughts but if a leak was whispered and certain folks made certain bets the lots of $$$$$ units were banked into the special funds of some certain people made for some big smiles.

        If you think trusting a POLI-TIC-IAN is smart then wrestle pigs in mud. Both of them will enjoy it and you will still smell! The stench will wear off in several months! Maybe

  8. The thought of a president Pence is almost as nauseating as the thought of a president Pelosi! Either one has control issues and wants to restrict MY life. President Trump has been a breath of fresh air and though I don’t always agree with him, I do think he’s got our best interests at heart. I see him as the honest king in a palace full of intrigue, backstabbers and wormtongues. Other than Melania, there’s probably nobody he can trust. Every member of his cabinet is likely compromised, along with his staff. The unholy alliance of bought and paid for minions of the right and left leave us little choice. The right will slowly impinge on our rights as they screw up the rest of the world. The left will quickly destroy our rights as they give us away to the world. I’d rather be more upbeat, but that’s my honest opinion.

    What’s the point of making lots of money if you can’t buy happiness and can’t escape from this world? The two things that allow us moments of reprieve – sex and drugs, are largely illegal and fraught with other risks. It seems that living quietly and shunning the world may be the best path, sad as that is.

    • Great point mike…
      What’s the purpose of making lots of money if those in charge of keeping everything safe are systematically destroying its value.

      • Now you are on to “Atlas Shrugged” territory. Awesome. Because the way the system is currently designed and rigged, is for the working and middle-class citizens to pay for the replacement population invasion. One day, the majority of you will finally rebel and stop paying the taxes to a government that sold you out and gave you away for a shilling.

  9. I wouldn’t worry about the “Putin Gets A Penthouse” bubble. All “suggested” by a long-time FBI informant who also works with Trump and other rich entities to sniff out/set up foreign payments that the FBI can then prosecute. Clearly a dumb attempt at a setup, even Slater says it was his suggestion that fizzled out after 5 minutes. But you gotta read his wiki page, what a snake!

  10. Yes, buying fractional BTC’s every month, as well as LTC.

    Bitcoin reminds me of the story about the Engineer and the Talking Frog.

    One day while walking thru park enjoying sunshine during lunch break, an engineer happens upon a real live talking frog. Engineer picks up frog and frog says “kiss me an I will turn into a beautiful princess”. Engineer promptly sticks the talking frog in his pocket and continues on his stroll. Lil frog cries out from engineers pocket “why won’t U kiss me and transform me back into a beautiful princess?”.
    Engineer reply’s to his pocket ,without blinking/hesitation, “because U are a TALKING frog,that’s neat.
    That story helped me understand better how to sell into Engineering firms as a young down the street sales rep.

  11. OK folks, if not Trump then who do you suggest? JDN was the only one that said anything positive: “Like him or hate him, he is the embodiment of what is necessary to right the ship. That said, even if he succeeds to some small degree, I agree the historical cycles are maturing to a total collapse.” OK who is your alternate for Trump??? If you don’t support Trump then who are you supporting indirectly? That is the establishment HRC, Bushes, Pelosi, Schumer and all the rest. Just who is your alternative? It has been said for years that for “them” to get to a one world government and a one world currency they have to collapse/destroy the US. And that includes the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, the sovereignty of this country, property rights, and everything that separates this country from the rest of the world. When this country looses its sovereignty then guess who takes over, that will be the UN. Trump seems to be trying to save our Constitution and our Sovereignty. If not Trump who do you have to suggest to step into the breach?

    • That’s the big thing, not ONE person in politics today could hold a candle to President Trump! None of em; cause the majority of em have had 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 years to do something about the state of our nation, and all they have done – Pelosi, Feinstein, Schumer, Bushe(s), Clinton(s), Biden, McCain-when living, Gore, Ted Kennedy, Obama, Paul Ryan, all the recent Texas Senators before Ted, and the Arizona and California, senators, Bloomberg, and many many more too numerous to mention have done NOTHING but cause MORE TROUBLE by overseeing this great invasion and HEIST of our country. Now that the tide is turning, now that critical mass is here, now that there is no going back, and no reversal in sight, now that the laws have been sewed up, the borders wide open, the great escape stopped, the screws will tighten harder, stronger, doubled down down down. They call themselves Democrat progressives as they cry racism, sexism, and any ismn that isn’t whiteism, and they lay the blame on a whole race of people no longer associated with the original sin except for the color of their skin. The multi-culturalism tolerance-laden gifters have all been turned into drifters by the intolerant disrespectful grifters. So, yeah, find a replacement that the new subset of humans in America can follow. Just remember, you are following Soros no matter what name the replacement is given.

      • ck,

        What has Trump actually done? What is his plan? He ran on draining the swamp, but instead, drained his own cabinet which is pretty much everyone he hired that was supposed to help him drain the swamp.

        He ran on building a wall, but even his own party knows that is a pipe dream.

        He ran on tax reform, but that has turned out to be a huge disaster for those that own homes. Plus…Corporations haven’t trickled down that money to create jobs as much as they used it for stock buy backs to increase their own corporate stock prices and line their pockets.

        He ran on America first, but the latest as of today from Mnuchin and Co is that they are back to free trade and global markets.

        He ran on being an outsider…and boy is he…still unable to crack the code on the inside.

        He ran on being a negotiator, but Little Rocket Man, Iran, the EU, China etc, have yet to concede to his demands and are kind of mocking him right now by doing their own doubling down.

        But you are right about one thing…Nobody but nobody can hold a candle….to his failures.

    • First and last, the dollar will fail. That’s it, takes care of all your crappy ideas. The empire is dying and can’t be saved. I’ts death is eminent and will be final. Waste of time to discuss anything more.

  12. Mark:

    Mr. Trump has taken steps to drain the swamp. When a cesspool has been filling for 150 years, it takes a while…

    A fact of politics is: The people most-qualified to solve a problem are the same people who caused the problem. Ergo, the only people available to Mr. Trump (or to anyone else hoping to clean up the mess which is our political arena) are those who’re unqualified but adaptable, or those whose interest would not be served by separating the “D.C. culture” from its graft.

    Any construction company can build a wall. It is the swamp creatures themselves who’re preventing its accomplishment.

    I’d call his tax reform a huge success. To your particular complaint: He removed the Federal welfare for property owners, which is enabling them to now “feel the bite” from their State taxing authorities. Sux to live in Cali (or ILLinois, Ne’ Joisey, New Yawk, Connectikut, or Massatoochets) and feel the bite, don’t it? Instead of whining about Mr. Trump opening your eyes to your existing tax burden, maybe you and a few million like-minded folks should have yourselves a pitchfork party in Sacramento, where your problem actually lies…

    With unemployment at more than a full percentage point below what BLS considers “full employment,” corporations have no incentive to trickle anything down, to stimulate job growth, nor does doing so make any sense. I’m not a fan of artificially spiking annual reports with buybacks either, but any activity is better than trillions of dollars laying around in dead-pools and not moving at-all.

    Free trade is something we haven’t. It is a goal for which to strive, and cannot be achieved with the tens of thousands of tariffs China and the EU, in particular, have imposed on U.S. goods. The U.S. manufactures 25% of the world’s goods and consumes over 40% of manufactured goods. 30 years ago, we manufactured 54% and bought >60%. China, alone, steals over $600bln PER YEAR ($683bln at last report) in American-owned intellectual property, because of the requirements the Chinese communist Party has placed on market entry.

    The only two resolutions to this disparity are to give the USPTO to the Chinese, or break their entry policy and establish actual free trade, while we still have the leverage to do so.

    The Young’Un will absolutely not give up his heavy water projects. I’d assume Mr. Trump has at least one Cabinet-level person who’s a military historian and is familiar with the Choson People. Said person would have long-since made Mr. Trump aware of the existence of Kim’s impregnable lab and magazine, and the Choson history over the past 4-5 millenia. Mainstream propagandists aside, Mr. Trump would be taking this history into account, with regards to any North Korean negotiations.

    I find it interesting that you hold Trump responsible for not instantaneously fixing the glaring mistakes of Clinton, Obama, Clinton, Nixon, and Bush41, respectively. Those foreign policy errors date to at least 1971. The EU and China are mocking out of fear. They mocked Clinton, Bush43, and Obama as well, but those former CiCs were mocked out of contempt. Their econ and policy wonks all know the U.S. can absolutely break them, and they fear Trump might do it. I suspect they’re dropping untold millions on lobbyists, to seduce the incoming Congress, to maintain the status quo and to ensure as much obstruction as possible to stuff getting fixed and cleaned-up.

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