Markets: Southbound & Down? Plus Retail Data

Thursday I tossed out a projection that according to a new model I’ve constructed, the market was “due” to head down – and seriously so – in the next week.  In fact, I put an S&P number under 2,500 on the table with a target date of next Friday.

That might be aggressive, but despite the Dow “gaining” 70- points Thursday, “The Turn” I was telling you about has, indeed, begun.

That’s because we are not swayed by the Dow.  Our approach to markets is to look at the totality of things.  So, while the Dow was up 0.29 percent, the NASDAQ Composite was down 0.39%.  No rocket surgeon needed:  If you had equal dough in those two vehicles, you’d have been down.  Toss in the further decline of a smaller 0.02% in the S&P 500 and we can see how this (rather gracefully) is turning when our latest (Golem II) model was inferring.

Tomorrow on the subscriber side, we will pursue that “Did AI come into the markets in August of this year?” question.  Most intriguing.

For now, given the future’s pricing this morning, we are in a position go begin the “big slide” as we begin to move down from the indecision zone in The Only Chart That Matters:

Today, things could go one of two ways, in our thinking.  One is that the Fed could intervene in a BIG way and push out enough money through their trading desk to continue to attempt to avoid replaying 1929.  The other possibility would be a late-session rally so the Big Money can continue selling to weaker hands and maybe pull something like a -400 opening downer Monday.  You saw where World stocks tumble on weak economic data from China and Europe?

A lot of this – as in poker – will be tipped (as in poker “tells”) by the flow of news over the next 96-hours.

As you know, we’ve been warning that a Russian take-back of Ukraine is very likely in the cards and there’s a deadline looming overs the Kremlin.

Remember, they pulled sailors off the Ukraine navy and the whole world was deafeningly quiet.  With this is mind, Vlad Putin may rtead this as a window during which he can take back Ukraine – including Kiev – but he would like stop 30-40 miles west of Kiev.  My consigliere and I think that’s all the closer the Russians would venture to Poland where not only are fresh missiles in place, but also (unlike Ukraine) Poland has its NATO membership card already.

Putin is no one’s fool.  He knows that his pressure-point on Europe is Russian natural gas deliveries.  If Europe gets too uppity about Russia taking back Ukraine, they will have a mighty cold few months.  The ground is also hard this time of year and the workers aren’t needed in the field.  Reports of new-version Russian tanks positioning near the Ukraine border add to our concerns.

Were we the long nutters thinking this could dwarf the Trump inquisition, rest assured we are not.  According to the Institute for the Study of War, which has a dandy article on Russian opportunism available here…

“Key Takeaway: Russia is poised to escalate its campaign in Ukraine at a time when domestic crises, partly fueled by the Kremlin, distract key U.S. allies in Europe. America’s three most important allies in NATO – France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – face ongoing political instability even as events in Eastern Europe divert the attention of NATO. These crises all have domestic roots, but nearly all of them are being fanned or influenced by the Kremlin.”

We are not predicting that Russia will roll in this weekend and snatch Kiev.  But, it would be something like that which would make markets plummet, especially if the Fed raises rates next week.

The Global investment community has put the Fed in something of a box:  With rates low, there’s little incentive for investors to buy bonds.  As the rates go up, however, and the purchase discount on the bonds increases, they might become more interesting.  And this, in turn, would help plug the hole in the exploding Federal Budget deficit.

None of this is certain, of course, AND we’d never be so foolish as to omit the our standing edict “This is not financial advice.”  So, rather, think of this as amateur financial futuring because, as all good students of behavioral economics know, people do EVERYTHING in their own beneficial self-interest because?


Especially war.

We see it this way:  “Tick-Tock Vlad Putin.  Ukraine will be in NATO shortly, winter will pass, and Europe will be less subject to blackmail.  John Bolton’s neocon inclinations aside, we doubt president Trump would take us in WW III when it’s been an “understanding” that post Cold War Russia would be allowed a “sphere of influence” on its west.  The megalomaniacal expansion of the “grow or die” European Union financial model aside.

News overnight that Putin is allied with the Russian Orthodox Church which is calling for the UN to protect believers in Ukraine, well, all sort of fits.

But it’s not just the risk of war.  Story out says U.S. recession risks jump, Fed rate hike expectations slump – Reuters poll.  While keeping rates low might seem like a good thing, when we are in a major market decline news works backwards.  In other words, on the way up, low rates would be a positive.  But now that we are moving into “glass half empty” territory, failing to raise will be taken as “It’s weakening – and the Fed knows it…”

Which Gets Us to Retail Sales

Just out from Census.  Where we wonder if Santa is on the distro list:

Even with Retail out, there is still the matter of the Fed’s Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report which will be out just ahead of the market opening in a few minutes.

Besides War and Money?

Storming here in the south, again: Severe storm system brings heavy rain, flood threat to the South.

Are things looking up?  We wonder as The year’s brightest comet streaks by Earth this weekend.

Now, lettuce prey: Tainted Romaine Lettuce Has Been Traced to at Least 1 California Farm.

Turn off the TV and Move Department:Regular trips out guard against depression in old age.

New Political Correctness concept sighted:  In the NY Times Tech Fix section: Tech Fix: Yes, You Can Be an Ethical Tech Consumer. Here’s How.

Passings: Nancy Wilson

Music lesson:  Before I was a rock & roll news director – back in the day – I was a transmitter engineer while in high school and first year of college.  At the same time, I worked for a couple of years at KYAC 1460 AM – “The Soul of the City” – with some AMAZING people.  Like Sonny Buxton and Lloyd Jones.

It was then I first started listening to Nancy Wilson.  Who, I’m very sad to report, has just passed on at age 81.  One of my favorites?

Some of Wilson’s finest included her recordings with Julian “Cannonball” Adderly.  Cannonball had become famous with an instrumental titled “Mercy, Mercy, Mercy.”  Here’s the session with Wilson singing and Adderly playing his break-out hit…

Not many people appreciate artists like Nancy Wilson – or Cannonball Adderly. Damn shame, that.  the music was – and is – special.

Feeding the brain is important. So, to “balance off” all the left-brain “facts” we collect, music – especially jazz and baroque – help to calm, center, reflect, and support increase creativity.

Oh-oh..back to the moment. End of Music Appreciation time:  Market’s about to pass Judgement  on our financial models.  Will we be among the quick or the dead?  Somewhere  in the distant past, God passed Judgements.  Later in life, Account Balances took over that gig.

This weekend, some notes tying environmental studies to prepping which I hope you’ll enjoy.  Moron the ‘morrow…

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George Ure
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30 thoughts on “Markets: Southbound & Down? Plus Retail Data”

  1. Where Crimea willingly rejoined Russia, thereby securing Russia’s warm water port in perpetuity, I ponder, why on earth The Russkies would risk world war 3 to role into Ukraine?

    • Taking Ukraine is called “strategic depth” for the Russians. And it is something that Russian has very little of on the western side of the country. Besides, the eastern side of Ukraine is mostly ethnic Russian, so many would be glad to be back in the house of Vlad.

    • The EU and the US lied to Putin when they promised they would never entertain adding the Ukraine to NATO, which the Neocons are hot to do. For Putin it is the equivalent of a nuclear Cuba a few miles from the US and not going to happen. Personally I don’t care, but I do think Putin has the superior argument, not dissimilar to the Chinese over Taiwan.

    • Especially since the US/EU turned what’s left of the country into a financial and political basket case. I think Putin is happy to let them own and try to pay for that mess while he bathes on the beach in Crimea.

      • I’m with you Wacky. It’s a wreck and no amount of cold war jargon (“strategic depth”) would afford reasoning to launch a war over it. The Russians don’t ‘need’ “strategic depth”. The CIA’s own Rand Corporation reported that they would be on the English Channel in 72 hours were the balloon to go up. Their missiles are better, their ECM is better, their aircraft are better, their tanks are superior and VASTLY outnumber NATO’s resources (when those resources are actually functioning). I’ve been a defense contractors for 35 years ~ it would not be pretty.

  2. Air trade mid month update at 9:15AM -12/14/18

    BTC – $3245.00, Oil – $52.26, USD indx – 97.60, 10yr Yld – 2.91%, Gld. – 1235.00

    Bitcoin looks like big percentage loser from last month down 41%, Oil off by 9% – US dollar and Gold both up 1%, while yield on 10yr UST is Down 6%

    Plunge Protection Teams around the world are working hard to keep this charade going as long as possible…unh I mean working hard to maintain orderly flow of money in the markets (liquidity).

    Professor G, are we watching history unfold as Russkies plan the invasion and takeover of the Ukraine? Rhymes in time all over this one..

    Comet Wartanin looks the harbinger of the END of the Old Guard,
    of NATO and quite possibly the DEEP STATE – just an opinion.

    ? How do you dismantle an Army – simple – Smash to pieces and watch our NATO allies run..the Russians are coming! the Russians are coming!

  3. “Remember, they pulled sailors off the Ukraine navy and the whole world was deafeningly quiet.”

    Sometime I’m surprised that even you fall into the trap of believing that “the whole world” cares ;-) about this. What difference would it make where the Ukraine people pay their taxes too w/o representation, like all of us do. Let them take it — we have our own problems!

    • George is a bright guy, but unfortunately, like many Americans, he is still fighting the cold war. He still thinks the Russians are the ‘bad guys.’ News Flash: The bad guys are located in your lovely (sarc.) capitol in Washington, DC. I much more concerned about the criminal cabal in Washington, DC than Russians or Chinese. BTW, Trump is just in the middle management of the Cabal.

      • Trump is being managed by the middle-management in the Cabal. He isn’t in the Cabal, he isn’t a member, like ole George, the other George said, George Carlin, that is, “it’s a club and you ain’t in it.” Can’t you see the replacement party positions? Each time a member of his adminstration is replaced, a replacement party steps in! Ah, politics, another word for entoontwainmont, SNL is sure making a hundred million on it!

  4. Now why would Russia want the Ukraine and the trillion or two that it would take to even make it a third world republic, or maybe we are going to give Russia a trillion or two of the missing $21 trillion that’s gone missing out of the defense department,funny how that kind of money can go missing without a trace .As far as the Ukraine being taken into NATO it will never happen anymore than Georgia becoming a NATO member,we are simply bluffing on a busted flush and Russia knows it.
    The EU is a mess as other countries join the yellow vest movement against the 1% and their pawns, I see the French people have labeled Macron as being the’ president of the wealthy’,and we could label Trump as being no different with his large tax cut for the wealthy the 1%, and little to nothing for the working class….

  5. George, further to your point about Russia vs. Ukraine:
    The R’s drubbing in last US election is likely a signal to Russia that it must act soon, within the next year or so, before their sympathizer in the White House gets potentially voted out. And still more so, as the full extent of their interference in US elections becomes more public. Best, Mike.

  6. ‘Had Bloomburglar running in the background this morning. They ran a clip on 2019 hate culture, er, I mean haute couture. Hemlines have not seen knees in a generation — until now. The fashion houses will be cranking out 5-figure dust mops for Spring, ’19. Not just below-the-knee, but all the way down below the ankles.

    That is all…

    • I sadly have to agree! I’ve watched hemlines all my life, and the correlation with the economy is unambiguous if you use a large enough sample. I relish in seeing the miniskirts or less, and I’ve watched them on campus until this year when they’ve virtually disappeared. Now it’s mostly pants or longer skirts. The same thing happened at the turn of the 70’s, with lesser fluctuations between then and now.

  7. I had the pleasure of experiencing Ms Nancy Wilson live in concert here at a SoCal university back in the 80’s. I’ve seen a lot of concerts over the years, but Nancy was exquisite. RIP.

  8. George I bought the red lite that you recommended some while back and have been using. Like it. Do you know of any information available on the the theraputic uses of the lite. Glad to find it helped your wife with her mac. I am using to get rid of cataract and seems to be helping. Just would like more info on the usage. Thanks Joe

    • I can’t give more specifics because if I did, surely some fed somewhere would accuse me of practicing medicine. So…how about you get two books and read them? surely referring someone to a book can’t be bad – or we will have to jail all librarians!

      The Ultimate Guide To Red Light Therapy: How to Use Red and Near-Infrared Light Therapy for Anti-Aging, Fat Loss, Muscle Gain, Performance Enhancement, and Brain Optimization


      Red Light Therapy: Miracle Medicine (Second Edition)

      The “Light Corwn Project” is documented from my work on that in 2016/2017 in my book Dimensions Next Door: Hacking spacetime – see the above tab

  9. George forgot to mention why am interested in the redlite therapy for Macular. I often go over to the VA hospital to visit and sometimes in the lobby waiting room there are a group of Vets with their walking sticks passing out inifo on Macular. Would like to give them info on the lite but dont really know where to obtain it. Your help in this could benefit a lot of folks I think.

  10. OUR State Dept. and our Foreign Policies , have NEVER been to help this country and its citizens…NEVER…… the CFR,Trilateral and others , are only interested in THEIR wealth and control….Nation States and their citizens be damned….as the world turns we can get ready to BOHICA….no matter who is elected….same pattern for the past 5 Presidents…..

    • Yes, that combined with the Non-Federal Reserve Banking system which has magically linked its chains itself around the world makes sure that the Lobbyists write the laws to benefit the banks which benefit the corporations which the owners are the CFR, Trilateral, Bilderburg members, and others. And our nicely PAID OFF SELECTED and ELECTED leaders PASS these lobbyist written LAWS. Nice little gimmick they got going on, a circular reference if you will. They have replicated this overseas; sorry-ass situation for all of mankind. Those are the shackles which makes us slaves, all of us; their slavery is open to all and cares not for color, race, sex, culture, country, or continent!

  11. It seems like the beginning music in Mercy ,Mercy, Mercy was used in another song, buy I couldn’t place it?

  12. Wow! I must be trippin, i could have swore i saw a comment about the electric universe and the book “Thunderbolts”. I know the authors son. Via the internet.

    His sin s very very smart, very gifted intuitively but also very detached from any scocial skills, other than an online persona, and connections. His son is also a bit of a plagiarist, to a degree. However, he has taught me a bunch over the years about science stuff and how it connects to spiritual stuff.

    • That, Andy, is the magic part of the Reality Bureau that we run here…The information will appear when needed by one of our tribe. The specific mechanism of how that happens is, well, the magic part…we don’t question. It’s like finding the Fountain of Youth.
      Do you ask? Or just Drink

      • Good Morning dude! Lol i think , when in the south, as is custom. “Yes, Mam Please. Gulp, thank ya mam. ”


        Yeah, That sorta threw me for a loop. Ha ha ha. Thunderbolts and the Electric Universe just popped out there like one of those kids pop out books. I had to go take a look at a few things. Was right there, plane as the day is long. I Breifly spoke to the guy i know whose Father wrote that book, Thunderbolts, mostly about Teslas 3,6,9 model of the Universe and “time” and j could see that the conversation would be an on going debate for 2 hours.

        Then!!! Shortly after that!!!

        (Last Night) I was politely asked to not further participate in a group dialog/discussion that is happening at a public venue online because i was influencing the dialog to a measureable degree. That and I was well, as you could say, objectively and systematically undermining the spokes person. With questions and concerns that nobody had considered. Ha ha ha.

        Within a few min, after that, i recieved polite invitation to have a conversation with a person in the “Family” aka The Bloodline Elite. It has been 5 years since i spoke to one of them. last time it was via safe mail I replied, Sure, I would love too. i have a few questions as well.

        Similar but different energy signiture as “Hiden Hand” (a dialog from 2008).

        Contrary to popular belief, every time i have spoke with them, “They” have been very attentive, thoughtful, polite, respectful, honest, forthright and good listeners. Way more than most people i meet on the web, who are usually just waiting for their turn to talk, so they can force their opinions down your throat.

        The way in which (the 3 Bloodline Elite in the past have i spoke too) talk via written word, is definitely very different than anyone i have ever talked too. There is a clear and consise methodology to how they write. All of them have this same pattern.

        Has a certain “beat” or “rythem” to it that nobody else displays i have ever encounted on my adventures in the web have but them. At no time ever was i asked to particpate in any weird ritual crap by them, nor was i ever even remotely asked to worship the devil. Cant really fake it the pattern in how they talk, so it apears my invitation is authentic.

        The way “they” write can be very seductive and suggestive, but that sh!t doesnt work on me. Its what i imagine it would be like having a conversation with an Elf. Lord of the rings Elf, not the keebler kind. reminds of cross between Yoda and an Ivy league professor. Very well educated and highly intelligent and intellectual “people” they are. All business. Never not once did any in the past make an attempt at humor.

        I was told more than few times, by the Bloodline Elite i spoke with in the past how suprised they were that their words didnt influence me because they know that how they talk its seductive and sugjestive. As well as by how I talk to them from a even place, with respect (as equals), not from a place of adoration or fear, as most people do and how i take into consideration what they are conveying (see their point of veiw) and still give my an honest and genuine objective answer.

        It is my understanding, They dont talk to us “surfs” very often at all. You are either part of their uber uper class scociety, think the 1% of the top 1% Or you are nothing.

        Maybe, one day i will write a book entitled “Conversations with The Powers that Be.” Lol or is that were.

        Hmmmm. Guess we shall see what they want now. Last time an Egptian Bloodline Elite i met online, (accidently
        stumbled upon a webs site) actually mistakenly thought i was a Ruling Aristocrat, because i commented a few things that only those within “the family” would know. Once she figured out i was just weird, the conversation ended abruptly. Lol

        So, if anything big comes from this, i will be sure to pass it along.

        Happy Saturday, going back to working Days through the holidays.

      • Andy, I thought of the Hidden Hand conversation also when I was reading the thread you suggested. Unmistakeably similarity. I also saw their 2 system subtleties for Ruling Out people – seductive/suggestive, adoration/fear. Looking forward to an update, since you’ve been taken Offline into Charted Territories.

  13. Thank you for the memories George.. I just love Nancy’s music.. she was and still is one of my favorites of all time..

  14. I’d never heard of Nancy Wilson, but in the interest of increasing my right brain access, I listened to the recordings. Then I listened again. I didn’t like her sound the first time around, but it was easier to hear as I repeatedly listened. I’m trying to listen each night as I go to bed and I’ll see what happens. She sounds much more mellow after a few nights.

    Thanks for embedding!

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