Not too many people speak fondly of Thomas Bayes. But, in the world of statistics Bayesian analysis. We will save the in-depth article on the application of Baye’s theory to improve trading returns while being able to make your “news predictions” nearly god-like in their accuracy. Because the real point is that “One of the many applications of Bayes’ theorem is Bayesian inference, a particular approach to statistical inference.”
And it’s simple; being applicable to both markets and news flows.
Which gets us to an upcoming Peoplenomics article – because this is one of those studies which (like a daily low-dose aspirin for oldsters like us) is so important that we should reveal a bit of the thinking to non-subscribers to our Peoplenomics.com reports.
Let’s go back to the snip of our Aggregate Index work from Monday’s column and update it with both the ,low of yesterday’s trading (the ‘x’ just right of the (4) upper right) and the expected low this morning (right on our long-term trend line).
In other words, in the manic-panic of Monday’s over-reaction, we dropped below a (visual, not calculated) trend channel. And, if the early futures today are guessing right, a close today at (or above) the trend line COULD be setting the stage for a rally which MIGHT go back to the top of the trend channel and give us an early summer completion of (5).
Of course, if the Chinese delegation stomps out of the much-touted trade talks with Trump, well, the X low of Monday would be the Wave 1 down of a broken trend. Peoplenomics subscribers c an load up the Elliott calculator that’s in the Master Index in the Resource section and forecast their own outcomes to the downside.
Today, near the close, the Fed will issue its consumer debt (which they call Consumer Creditor because they are the creditors, right?). If it moves markets one way, or the other, trade will still likely work out.
The reason is two-fold. First, the US has the largest consumer class in the world. Much as China wants to migrate its population upscale, there’s no way to take that much production and consume it internally – yet.
At the same time, despite all the MAGA hype, the US still has to rely on Asian countries for a huge fraction of our national consumption.
China and the U.S, should be moving toward an agreement, but there are, as we see it, likely side-deals all over the place. Pretend to be a mouse (in the Oval Ofrfice?) asnd hearinjg snips like this:
- “We will go for a tariff of x on Y, but you keep carriers 20-miles from our newly built islands...”
- “OK, but you cut down the fentanyl coming in from Mexico.” (The linked NY Times story came out April Fool’s Day.)
- “Perhaps, but we need to increase Mexico contain landings by 25% then in order for the cartels to compensate up…”
- “OK, but no mixing of drug money with drug profits to buy anything in North America, are we agreed?”
- “Not quite. We want a larger aircraft segment so we will need to expand cooperation with Boeing, so no tariffs on anything aircraft or avionics related…”
- “Maybe, but you must reveal who sold our our NSA tracking technology….”
- …and so it would go…
This is what’s behind the hysterical headlines this morning, such as “White House Ratchets up Trade Fight” and “China’s top trade negotiator to visit US despite tariffs.“.
Some very good background in the NY Times DealBook Briefing: Trump Wasn’t Joking About New Tariffs on China., We like the Times business section and wish the rest of the paper was as balanced.
Ideally, we’d like to see the talks collapse – momentarily – because that could set up a nice retest of the Monday lows. Will it happen? We sit – driven by events in our odd Bayesian way looking at the aggregated market view, Elliott and trend channels realizing that in a trade war, the world loses.
When the smoke clears, look for a trade deal that changes little yet gives each side some (false) basis for overblown headlines of success.
The futures were dropping again, 2-hours before the open. The tension seems almost palpable, but in reality it looks to us like the U.S. is in a deeply dysfunctional, co-dependent relationship with an older country with a tendency toward abuse if they veer from parental instructions from Beijing.
More coffee? As we wait for the “retest of ‘x’.
BS on BS Department
We are still seeing political headlines that leave us agawk. Not so much with the underlying stories (like “Biden takes 32-point lead over Sanders in new 2020 poll”) but because there are so many stupid pretenders to power on the left.
You know, for a political party that is nominally touting working together and supporting the working man, democrats seem to be lining up to screw the pooch with tax hikes and more free lunch programs that everyone (but them) pay for…
Worth Your Attention
Climate Change or Just More Hot Air? We presented the latest solar cycle progression data for you Monday in this column. And there’s no change in the outlook (if you know now to import a simple .CSV file into Excel) that we’re on the possible cusp of a Maunder Minimum replay.
Thus, we got a chuckle reading how NBC reporter scolded on air after comparing UN climate change report to alien invasion. Yes sir, thought control begins on the set…
Headline-driven madness in stories like this one, too: World celebrates a new royal baby. Except, we don’t give a rip. World already has too much management and children. The more meaningful marital stories are like “Bride market trafficks Pakistani Christian women to China.”
Robots on the march: Coming soon to a construction site near you as Construction Robotics Market to Reach $226 Million Worldwide by 2025, According to Tractica.
CNN’s Lost Touch with Reality? Yes, they are still trying to rewrite the 2016 election outcome. Read “Can Trump be forced to accept electoral defeat?” and you’ll maybe get a hint at why their ratings have fallen…
The Electoral College, like Nancy Pelosi, isn’t going anywhere.
New Moniker time? “A killer asteroid is coming — we don’t know when (so let’s be ready), Bill Nye says.: How about a rebrand as “Bill Nye, the Hysteria Guy?
Shop until you drop? Amazon Go opens for the first time in New York. And the cashier-free store will accept cash. Which gets us to a familiar tune around here: Why isn’t the FedGov busy whacking airlines and others who demand credit cards when you offer them cash? Says it’s good for all debts public and private, does it not?
EMP-Susceptible Money Report: Bitcoin at $5,895 this morning for the electronically and history-of-bubbles-impaired. Pretend it’s 1636…
The “Earthquake Tireds” That Elaine and I both suffered from this weekend turned revealed themselves Monday afternoon. ”
Event type: Earthquake
Region: eastern New Guinea region, Papua New Guinea
Geographic coordinates: 6.977S, 146.440E
Magnitude: 7.2
Elaine had been wandering around Sunday afternoon saying “Today feels so unreal…like something big is going to happen…” Depending on where you were, it did. Related: Dream Realms are incredibly active this week, too. Geo-electric?
Speaking of down that way…
Another Country Heard From
Always a pleasure to catch-up with the goings-on down in Jakarta where portable Bureau Chief Bernard Grover hangs out.
“Hiya chief!
Stumbled into a new cottage industry here.
Mother-in-law died a month ago, leaving a relic Dutch-era safe worth a small fortune on the antiquities market. But, she also revealed that she had buried a stash of gold under the house and couldn’t remember where.
Well, being the enterprising soul that I am, I bought a Fisher F22 metal detector and set about scanning the house. I found not 1, not 2, but 3 separate stashes of Suharto-era ingots worth another small fortune.
I’ve now parlayed that success into a service, since no Indonesians apparently have ever heard of metal detectors, much less use them as a hobby. Folks call me in to find legendary family fortunes buried on their property. I charge 10% of any finding, payable immediately (of course). I have also discovered a well-kept secret – there are alluvial gold deposits in Java, which I previously thought were limited to Sulawesi and Papua. So far, rivers in the mountains have yielded some gold dust, but hopes run high.
I’m also planning a trip to Gunung Padang, i.e. the Java Pyramid, to do some relic hunting.
Just a thought for enterprising souls looking for a way to get the hell out of the way, while having something fun and interesting to do.
Just stay the hell away from Indonesia.
Cheers, & Best regards,
Bernard Grover
Executive Producer
Far Side Productions https://augenguy.blogspot.com/
Jakarta, Indonesia
For those who don’t remember, Bernard is a displaced Texan who went seeking fame and fortune in Indonesia some years back.
He’s still looking. But, his adventures are fabulously entertaining.
Playing major home appliances repairman this week. Because Bayesian news analytics will only get you so far..Around here, it’s OK to make profits. It’s the spending ’em that galls us.
Moron the ‘morrow.
The “Earthquake Tireds” That Elaine and I both suffered from this weekend turned revealed themselves Monday afternoon. ”
Heads up on May 10, 2019, especially with events going on in the Persian Gulf.
Nostradamus Quatrain IX-83
Sol vingt de Taurus si fort terre trembler,
Le grand theatre remply ruynera,
L’air, ciel & terre obscurcir & troubler,
Lors l’infidele Dieu & saints voguera.
Nostradamus Quatrain IX-83
Sun twentieth of Taurus [May 10th] a mighty earth trembling,
The great theater [Hollywood, California] completely ruined,
The air, sky, and land darkened and troubled,
Then the infidel [Islamic Jihadist] invokes God and the saints.
Like in the Joe Brandt Dream by the sound of it. Especially if the dating was off and it turned May 11 for Brandt (going from failing memory here) was on a Saturday/// thanks as always Stu – dandy work on https://theageofdesolation.com
I am anxious to be able to buy your new book…
Great eye opening work being done on the age of desolation site..
https://theageofdesolation.com/
Looking: Wasn’t that the site with the transgender Michele Obama. Turned me off to anything he has to say.
Relax ECS. Stu isn’t really in the Trompe corner either. His geopolitical analysis tends to be better than his local gossip. I didn’t think the Michelle Obama piece was particularly tasteful, either. I’m not sure how he would explain away the kids.
ECS…Now I got got me thinking..Wasn’t it Joan rivers that started all that machelle Obama is a man stuff in her comedy act..
https://www.cnn.com/2014/07/04/showbiz/celebrity-news-gossip/joan-rivers-michelle-obama-gay-transgender/index.html?no-st=9999999999
Kids, adopted.
G, UN Climate FRAUD is for the R.O.T.W. – His honor , the POTUS has called out this garbage and gotten us out of the big fraud – Paris Climate Accord. You all see the weather in Europe this morning? Its cold – getting colder with Snow storms on the way in May!
Earthquake Tireds maybe…what do U get prior to solar storms/kill shots? hair start standing on end, headaches, aches and pains in specific points..
Long Dollar trade looks to be a winnerwinnerchickendinner now and for forseable future. Metals look really interesting at these levels, cant stay away…gotz to get some of that comming action..after worst “officiating” call in the history of horse racing left me holding over $150 face value in winning tickets on the Derby..&%^%!$$^#@%!, exactas/trifectas/superfectas – all losers after BAD CALL in Kentucky Derby. I like to “wheel” the long shot(w/odds better than 50-1) with every other horse in the race on a $2.00 Exacta Bet as a hedge to the downside. The worst call is horse racing I seen in 57 years..it will ruin the sport – Object/RequestInquiry every race you ever lose..
* – Isreal warns WH of Iranian threat to attack US forces/ships in ME – U know the script by now – Zionazis warn/set table, falseflag attack on US forces, US hot war with IRAN – the ZIOS wet dream! let slip the dogs of WAR indeed!
Are your “earthquake tireds” accompanied by brain fog? I had a bad spell yesterday morning and attempting to unclog a bathroom sink on the second floor, I very carefully carried half a pan of boiling water up the stairs (very risky for a 67-year-old) before realizing I could fill the electric pan upstairs and boil the water there!
Also had a vivid dream last night that I was in Vegas, having traveled there on a bus with Tom Kenny (voice of SpongeBob) Kenny and the Hi-Seas (my daughter and several friends are in the band). I left our hotel, which was either Empire Hotel or Hotel Empire, walked a few blocks, then got lost trying to return. I ended up near a large encampment of homeless young people under an overpass, some of whom became menacing as my cellphone proceeded to die.
There could be some science behind this effect. Ben Davidson at Suspicious0bservers has found a pretty clear link between low pressure cells (earth spots) and earthquakes. His system runs about 80% accurate for predictions and improving all the time.
Strong low pressure cells could electrically induce sleep changes, vivid dreaming and brain fog through electro-magnetic effects. The global plasma sheath we call “atmosphere” might be a reasonable medium by which data is transmitted globally, thus allowing someone in one location to get “a sense” about events in another location.
A bit woo-woo, but worth pondering.
Sorry George…Cryptos are here to stay !!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eluuOtfB4Ag
Listen at about minute 7:06
So were tulips…
And so are most fiat currencies. The point being the blockchain and digital assets are they way to process transactions faster in the digital age. Credit cards are costing too much and going to be a thing of the past. Think of it this way, the government is not making any laws against it, and corporations, who we all know have bought off our representatives, are starting to develop their own entries in to the market.
George..just buy one bitcoin and we will talk in 5 years when it hits $1,000,000. After that you can sell it before no one wants to buy tulips anymore !! LOL
Think of it George, if you wanted out of the Swift System and no one can decide whos currency should be the dominant one, what would you do ?? Maybe try to find a universal way to exchange currencies without anyone being able to manipulate the value of said currency. Bitcoin can be that exchange medium.
My garden has outperformed the cyrptos – gives me tomatoes and squash….yummy tangibles.
George
“Why isn’t the FedGov busy whacking airlines and others who demand credit cards when you offer them cash?”
It’s all about Control! You can’t be tracked or denied service if cash still exists. Vote the wrong way and you will be punished.
There is a giant push to get rid of cash. To hell with what the Constitution says it’s just that old dusty rag from centuries ago!!
Federal Reserve Notes must be accepted for all debts, public and private(according to them). Unfortunately, buying anything, such as a plane ticket, is not a debt. It’s a transaction. I’m sure this is the loophole that’s being exploited.
BTW, building, fixing and maintaining your stuff, including appliances, is not a taxable event(shhhhh!). Avoiding spending a dollar can easily be worth two actual dollars or more, depending on tax bracket, convenience, etc..
“Federal Reserve Notes must be accepted for all debts, public and private”
Right now you would be shocked at how many places won’t accept the greenbacks around here as a form of payment.. and almost everyplace has signs up at the registers that say… fifties,hundreds, and checks will not be accepted as payment..
I feel the squeeze now.. I know if I’m feeling the squeeze so are a lot of others.
I know two people that listed their homes for sale because the average costs are beyond their scope of income.
At this point I think the next trip down the drain will be a rough one.
Yo UrbanSurvival, got Bitcoin?
Dont know what the hell a Bitcoin is?
Not exactly sure what a Blockchain/Distributed Ledger is ? No idea about cyrpto currencies and what the Governments/Regulators/Corporations are doing about/with Cyrptos..like Fidelity Mgt. going live Institutional Trading of Bitcoin this month?
CONSENSUS 2019
– come to the Big Apple..”dont mind the maggots” May 13-15th – best $600 bucks U will ever spend getting an education, and NETWORKING with some truly brilliant minds from around the world. Although a weak student in/with History, I do not recall Central Banks, Large Institutional Banks,and or any Governments buying or selling tulips, perhaps some banks were involved in funding customer investments in tulips, but futures trading? nah, derivitives trading on NYSE or Dutch Bourse – nah.
Warning – Do Not Buy Bitcoin….it might be worth a fortune in 5 years time..or $0 ; )
Aquariids starts tonight…amongst other big things starting this week..
Unplug the computer.
Ask “How fungible is it?”
Other than throwing the hard drive at them?
George, another interesting piece on the economics side.
But please let me help you on this climate change stuff. When you get NASA citing 97% of all published scientists saying that Global Warming is a hoax, let us know. Otherwise, just give it a rest. It makes you look like just another goofy science denier. Best, Mike.
That was debunked SO LONG AGO I am tired of reminding you.
Do look at the freaking data!
Sun cools —>>> Earth Cools
Ain’t that hard, is it?
Again, reread Debunking 97% Climate Denial
Follow the math, the logic and get back to us
https://skepticalscience.com/debunking-climate-consensus-denial.html
Also Forbes
97% is 100 percent wrong
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexepstein/2015/01/06/97-of-climate-scientists-agree-is-100-wrong/#17d0908c3f9f
You must be a paid “save the planet troll” for two bit sociual mobster/climateers
It’s a troll going bt the name of Mark. Mark of the beast. He beats this comment section like a teenager in heat. Why can’t he go find himself a woman like CNN, ABC, CBS, MSNBC, and PBS to swarm and charm???
Well, now, I think Andy is closer to the teenager in heat title…
ROTFLMFAO! George, im not the one in “heat”. She is. “Felicia” is all rubbing her self all over everything and cooing thinking evey dude in my house is her man. Its so adorable. She chases me all over the house purring thinking Im her Bo. Hahahahh
I am just trying my best to maintain relative normalcy while the strange miracles are happening. LOL
A domestic female “cat in heat” is exremely marvelous, just saying. I live with a 6-7 years old Siberian female cat, and it happens every 6 weeks or so it seems. She never ‘miaus’ but she talks sometimes in an unintelligent, to us humans, language.
Since you seem to believe 41 / 11,944 = .97, perhaps you shouldn’t be hanging out on an economics and finance blog? Just sayin’…
You seem to be far behind the times, good sir. NASA is now quietly shifting over to the Mini Ice Age/Grand Solar Minimum camp, saying it should get into full swing by 2024, though methinks it is evident now, what with the late, record-smashing cold and snow in the Norther Hemisphere, and similar shenanigans going on down heeyah. Whenever 97% of any group believes something, you can bet your last dollar that it’s wrong.
Might I suggest Suspicious0berservers (that’s a zero for 0bservers) and Adapt 2030 as some good sources to begin your re-education?
The Power of The tweet…DOW down over 400 points. PT is like a YoYo, sometimes crazy, sometimes sane. I don’t know what to make of PT & his government by tweet. He causes his own problems due to his gigantic ego, or is he a genius (probably not)? Between him & Congress it makes you shutter sometimes.
“He causes his own problems…”
and so do most people — best is to concentrate more on one’s own problems in life that can be fixed. (PT lives in a different world over which we have NO dominion).
DOW & S&P 500 went bearish. NASDAQ Composite & NASDAQ 100 still bullish. Looks like a tie.
????????….
Big thing on the news.. Trade talks stall trump to raise tariffs on incoming goods and services…
Here’s a Stupid question..what in the heck is wrong with that?
All of us one way or another works with a budget,ledger, or checkbook… the USA has the same issue.. both sides should at least be equal otherwise your off.. a company cannot run by selling products all below cost neither can the USA..
My way of thinking we should have been doing this all along. Give tax breaks to companies manufacturing in the us and employing us citizens and taxing the shift out of those that aren’t.
Bill Nye has a mechanical engineering degree, so he would have taken his fair share of physics courses, however, he has not done the work typically required to be considered a “scientist”. Why is he touted as an expert on everything?
Because he’e “Bill Nye, The Science Guy” from PBS. His BS in ME carries more weight than virtually anyone else, regardless of their academic pedigree or life experience, because he demonstrated elementary physics to preschool children for years, and those preschoolers are now 20- and 30-somethings.
Nye is a silver spoon kid from D.C. who grew up in a hardcore Liberal family, and politically knows nothing else. His opinion carries weight amongst the Liberals because he’s extremely well-known by one of their prime target audiences. Since they know him as a “science guy,” the kiddies accept his word without question, on any science-related topic.
Strange postings George. Strange. One thing you can say about crypto cats/ they believe/ bless their hearts.
Talks of bitcoin being tied to gold backed by gold getting interesting
Im just an armature ‘field’ reporter for this site. So this is what i got, thus far.
I got a 9.5 quake hitting San Diego on September 22.
I got December 01 or the 18th ‘apocalypse’ for India.
I got a bunch of other stuff but i need to sort it all out.
Trying to figure out my own stuff. Thanks “nitro” for your comment in reply to mine the other day. About “any” but i gotta tell ya, there was absolutely nothing there that had to do with all the stuff i got going on, right how. Maybe it will be usefull later, for me. I dont know.
Right now, im just trying to be as humble and teachable as possible. Trying to forget everything I think I know, and exchange that for what I dont know that i didnt know. Or i didnt know, i knew or didnt know i dont know that i didnt know. Something like that.
I mean i cant walk on water or change water into wine or wine into water or stuff like that. Doesnt mean its impossible. Someone did it. I mean my Moms wasnt a virgin and all that. But i do really feel that with the right Toolsx and capacity and skill comes capabilities.
1000 years ago if you could talk to someone on the other side of the world with a little box in your hand, people would think you were crazy! Or a witch and burn ya at the steak or crucify ya on a cross. And yet we do it all day long here and now, and nobody is running around saying, wiiiiiitcccch craft! Tool of the Devil!!!!! Burn Him! BURN HIM! cause thar would be considered crazy talk. LOL!
Thanks George for this site and to everyone who comments on it.
Im really really just keep my yapper shut, and work with the weird sh!t i got going on in my little world and just be at the ready and teachable.
Love ya all.
I’m really glad that nothing I discussed in the post you mentioned was applicable to your situation, or caused you personal grief. It is easy to forget that there may be a lot of viewers of any given post. I would hope that sometimes a comment I make may influence someone quietly watching the stream to think things through before taking a course of action.
G____’s forum is about free discourse, in contrast to the discussion in other mainstream blogs, whose comment sections have deteriorated into hate-fests (think ZH). Of course, that doesn’t mean I can’t whack a leftist if they stick their head out from under a nearby rock, but I always try to brain them in the spirit of open public discourse.
Oh, this is to the person that i was shown didnt have much longer. Like 8 days as of sunday. This is always an awkward thing i dont like knowing some stuff that i know. I didnt know who it was till today. I just knew it was one of ya. So i kept asking, show me who. And i got confirmation today on who.
Go through the narrow gate. Dont go through the tunnel of light to the F’ing Moon! If you go through the tunnel of light and go to the Fing moon, you are coming back here again!!!!!
Go towards the Sun! If you go to the fricking moon you are screwed! Sure it will all be peace and harmony and yay we are so glad you are here and sh!t. Its a trap!!!! I dont give a sh!t If Marylin Munroe is naked on a pile of money with your favorite sadwhich in her hand saying how much she misses ya and is excited to be your bride. Dont go that way!!!!!!
Go towards the SUN! After eleven NDE’s TRUST ME ON THIS!!! I been to the Moon and to the Sun. Both places will send ya back here.
When you get near The Sun go straight up towards ORION! keep going. There is a field around the solar system cant rememeber the name of it, that wont let ya out, but there us an opening, you will see it! just once you get close to the sun if you look up, you will see the belt of Orion and head there!
I went to the center star in Orions belt and its the REAL DEAL. trust me on this!
Probably gonna get in trouble for this comment, from the bad guys. But i dont care. Arrrggggh. Ok ok. See ya around people.
Capiche?
“Capiche?”
Yes!! That’s why I’m coming back to this thread, because I’m closer than ever — or though I think.
“I dont give a sh!t If Marylin Munroe is naked on a pile of money with your favorite sadwhich in her hand saying how much she misses ya and is excited to be your bride. Dont go that way!!!!!!”
In her days ‘Marylin’ only needed a black skirt & white blouse ;-)
Andy- Alnilam in the Orion constellation is a blue supergiant with a luminosity of as much as 800,000 times that of our own sun, and would require extra spirit suntan ectoplasm for a close visit. Kinda looks like a celestial trucker tourist trap to me. Isn’t there some local library for the disembodied where the recently out of phase can research vacation hotspots ? Or maybe a “Handbook for the Recently…”, oh wait, Tim Burton already covered that one.