The longwave economics view brings many terrible thoughts to mind.  It’s like standing at the shoreline, sometimes, watching the tide come in.  Then realizing it’s a tsunami.

Amidst the odd machinations of the news lately, we are reminded of a huge story lurking behind the headlines.  Namely that America has some exceptional drought impacts evolving.

We can begin with the US Drought Monitor which shows the four-corners are of the Southwest in a terrible state:

We not-only have concerns about New Mexico, Utah, Colorado, and Arizona, but with the left-hand side of Texas.  Down the Rio Grande Valley, water is very tight (again) and the dryness out east of Los Angeles – in the Imperial Valley – has shown persistent precipitation shortages, as well.

For now, it’s not a national crisis.

Few are likely to have noted the localized issues in the Dubuque, Iowa area where last week “Dubuque marinas, boaters left dry due to dramatic drop in Mississippi River.

As we mentioned – far from a “national concern” except that at the UrbanSurvival level, we’re reminded by this very “in-your-face” set of data that most people have not planned their lives well, in terms of natural sustainability.

In other words, the notion that “I can just write a check for it…” doesn’t hold once the often-hailed notion of “Anti-Fragility” begins to show its soft under-belly.  (We’ll be focusing next week on Hyper-Fragility in next Wednesday’s report for subscribers.  Which is $40-bucks a year, by the way, if you’re interested…)

Here on the “free side” of things, look for a report Sunday, if you have time in your schedule for some reading, visit here daily.  Sunday’s piece is about preparing for the “Bull Market’s End...”

Great Depressions are what happen when food supplies don’t keep up with demand in a recession.  While we’re not forecasting imminent demise, there articles like Axios’Climate change may boost pests, stress food supplies” that are worth reading.

While we’re highly skeptical of a lot of “climate hype” we’re still mindful that the Anasazi were forced out of the desert Southwest by exceptional long-term drought.  And who’s to say the same trends can be visiting again?

There are some things you can do to become more personally resilient.  Not the least of which is to get serious about gardening – which is moving up the list of items on the planning list around here.  I keep thinking about another trip down to Epcot because their hanging and sand-growing hydroponics are totally cool.

Toss in a couple of hundred gallons of water (per person) since a minimalist (*with body odor) can get by on less than 2-gallons a day…and even in the worst of droughts the occasional summer t-storm will come through and drop useful amounts of rain.

This week, for example, here at the ranch, we had a third-of-an-inch.  Not a lot – certainly not enough to keep a garden going with.  BUT, if you take a third of an inch of rain and we ever finish water-collection for our 3,220 square-feet of roof, that one-time event would have provided 139,104 cubic inches of water.

Since there are 231 cubic inches per gallon, that passing t-storm would have generated just over 600-gallons of water.  Gets me to thinking Caribbean-style cistern may be a long-term option.

Don’t mean to get off too much “into the weeds” – and George’s ragged thoughts” about planning.  Thing is, even  at age 70, I still plan on a couple of meals per day.  Even with a high well, a greenhouse, and catchment, we figure we could remain aloof from society if the crap ever hit the fan.

Could it?

Oh, sure!  A coordinated attack on SoCal water resources, for example.  And, if you want to worry about terrorism, we still wonder about the 2007 Barksdale nuclear incident and wonder if that was a “cover operation” to arm terrorists for later use when times get dicey-enough.  When might that be?

With the dollar having less than 4-cents of purchasing power (compared to 1913), with borders leaking, interest compounding, drought arriving, and politicians in  a daily pissing-contest, seems to us the smartest thing to do is to…

a) Focus on how to keep building our own, resilient and independent ways.

b) Stand aside and watch and learn from those who fail to read history and are therefore swept away when “normalcy bias” breaks down.

It has been said that another Great Depression “can’t happen.”  But, the data argues otherwise.

America’s future is always in doubt, absent the mindful work of Constitution following people who can look up from the tainted media and make their own lists of “difficult problems to be hedged.”

Which is why we mention the drought map first thing.  It’s just one of dozens of indicators…but a KEY ONE to watch.

Trump’s Bad Move

While we’re not fans of “automatic” pay hikes, it seems president Trump has forgotten how economics works.

The story is, of course, “Trump freezes federal worker pay, citing ‘serious economic conditions’.”

While it’s true that Federal workers shouldn’t lead wage increases, it’s also true that a more measured approach is justified on economic grounds.

You see, a cost of living adjustment is not a “wage increase.”

:Let’s put this is loaves of bread terms.  Because of the government’s addiction to watering down the money supply, any wage in 2019 that does not allow the purchase of the same number of loaves is a wage cut.

I think Trump’s got this one wrong.

I suggest he needs to go look at the increases in the H.6 Fed Money Money Supply Report and note that the GDP is going up, too.  If Federal workers can’t maintain purchasing power parity (year-on-year) then two things are sure to happen.

The first is?  The best people in government would have an incentive to leave.

The second?  Federal workers will “pull in their spending” a bit.  This will reduce tax receipts along with drying out some of the recently liquid elevating national mood.

Government (civil) service is supposed to act like a wind-up spring.  When times are good, we should be winding the spring.  When times are bad, federal and civil service spending being continued tends to moderate propagating  economic decline.

To me, it looks like politics, too.  Almost like Trump is looking ahead to 2020 and thinking “If we have a touch of slowdown in 2018-2020, any declines can be blamed on democrats getting back some seats in the House and Senate…”

We don’t think “playing politics” with anyone’s food should be on the table, yet to us, it appears it may be the case.

Of course, this may be part of messaging to the Deep State and, along with that, this may all feed in to how the president is messaging as the non-stop onslaught to impede his agenda continues.  His tweets about social media make the point.  But, if would be more clear to his base if he used hotter linguistics like DMR (digital mob rule)  and the Webolution.

On to Today’s Mess-Pot

The Reuters story Global shares extend falls on Trump trade threats gets us to wondering if the Top is in.  We sure have a hard time considering long-side bets (that the market will go higher) but there’s a case for a few hundred more points to the top of a trend channel in our Aggregate work.  More on this tomorrow for subscribers.

Meantime, Europe is rattling the trade cage again in “Juncker pledges to boost auto tariffs if Trump reneges on agreement.”

Social Collapse?  In Progress…

While the people of the (deluded) state of California like to believe they are a cut-above the rest of the country, we couldn’t help but notice how two men beast up a teenager on a train for playing his music, too-loudly.

Toss in the latest Sacramental symptom (“Will lame duck Jerry Brown commute sentences of every single death row inmate in one of his last acts as California governor?.”) and a strong case exists that normal stops at the Nevada and Arizona borders.  Jury’s out on Oregon.

For more, tune in to social media…and speaking of that, did you see where Fox writes “Hey, Google, Facebook, Twitter – Trump’s got a point. You need to do a better job of self-regulating?”

Let’s ALL Play “Taxi”

Oh, year:  Uber and Lyft are both eyeing IPO’s for next year.  “Lyft in talks to hire advisor for 2019 IPO: Bloomberg.”

The trick for both will be to exit while there’s still demand for ride sharing.

One of the more interesting economic indicators not reported is the supply and demand numbers for both outfits.

Seems to me if the economy is running into headwinds, there would be more people signing up to drive and fewer rides calling in.

Of course, it would be somewhat weather-driving, but jeez, wouldn’t that be a useful economic number?

There are a lot of these kind of data out there – just waiting for someone to figure out how to best monetize the data…

Ooops…time to wolf down some chow and move on to working on articles for the Holiday Weekend.

Drive safely and soberly…and dropby every day this weekend.  Who knows – maybe we will have out virtual gold stars, or something silly like that…

Moron the ‘morrow!”