There has been a lot of discussion in media here lately of how the WEF/Davos meetings might make some decision to promote some kind of global economic reset. Whenever the ultra-rich and the power class talk about resetting anything, I’m overwhelmed with the need to sit on my wallet because usually what follows is yet another way to screw the little guys. (YAWTSTLG) And yes, that includes you and me, our fantasies of “The Secret Life of Walter Mitty” aside.
Gold and silver has been going up while the markets are headed for another opening down in the dumps. Look for the Dow to drop another hundred, or so, at the open. Then, by taking out the S&P 1820 to 1818 level, anything lower on a weekly close brings the possibility that this move is complete. If our trading model indicates a change, there will be an update for Peoplenomics readers in the final hour of trading today. Not that we give trading advice, but we do discuss playing on the freeway in front of rolling semis now and then.
The real question is “How far is down?”
We have a number of choices and a great deal will depend on how the discussions among the money-mad at Davos go, coupled with next week’s Fed meeting.
For now, there’s a good distance down to our trading model decision point…maybe another 200 points or better. And that may not happen since key tech stocks, like Microsoft, are out with earnings that are a surprise to the upside. The possibility of a late session bounce today is in there.
Still, as we eye the tech stocks, we have the nagging suspicion that a global economy based on more cell phones and more time gaming may not really be the crowning pinnacle and glory of humanity. One doubts that Leif Erickson would have said “Great land here, let’s develop it so we can all take C# programming courses and make video games for our grandchildren!” The absurdity of gaming (and tech) is obvious, yet few confront the hollow vision.
About here, you might want to kick back and read this week’s longer perspective on things as penned by Margaret MacMillan in the OpEd section of the Financial Times this week in “A world above it all – welcome to Davos 1914.”
It’s sure to all sound fine, when the plans and platitudes begin to roll. But the reality is that the Economic Long Wave finds the world in serial bubbles over a gaping chasm and should the money-huffing promoted at all levels stop, the world will drop into Depression like none ever seen before.
In case you haven’t noticed, we live in a surveillance state without legality, a highly communicated life though mostly without purpose other than self preservation, and we look to gaming to save us from the untaxed onslaught of automation and robotics that makes us all obsolete.
As a result, so-called “leadership” rejects Constitutionally based findings that NSA surveillance goes too far in violation of protections. Our future is pinned on the success of entertainment which hasn’t been tried since the fall of Rome.
WE live in a country where one minute of Super Bowl time is worth $8-million dollars to an industry that’s made up of rich guys who get massive tax breaks at all kinds of levels. Yet unemployment benefits can’t be extended. Say what?
So if you hear a massive national creaking later on this morning, that will be last layers of support at this level of the S&P giving way as more studied minds consider whether investing at the top of a financial mania makes sense.
As goes China, so goes America. They rule us, not the other way around. And China was down 1.25% overnight so this morning’s dart toss suggests down 202 for the day here and that pushes us out to “turnaround Tuesday by which time we should be at the make-or-break line for our trading model.
And then it will all hinge on how goes Janet’s Yellen after the Fed meeting next week. Leg up to follow, or down in a heap? Major European markets are also down 1% and more so at least the first level of support is likely to fail and that sets up the possibility ofS&P 1775 as the next resting place, say say by Tuesday mid-morning?
More after this…
Politics in a Bundle
Hot lead in the Hollywood Reporter this morning about how “‘2016: Obama’s America’ Filmmaker Indicted for Violating Campaign Finance Laws” is a must read.
So the GOP leaning fellow’s crime? Gave $20,000 to a campaign when the limit is $5,000.
OK, what’s really going on?
It really has NOTHING to do with the amount of money raised but more about the form that is used. Political influence is for sale, but you have to buy it just so…
For example, on the demo side, we read how one top Hollywood Bundler for the Obama campaign was Jeffrey Katzenberg who reportedly (according to OpenSecrets) bundled something like $1.8 million for Obama. Compared to this other fellow who did $20,000 direct.
But, you see, that’s the point, isn’t it? Bundling is OK but direct contributions of much smaller amounts are not. Form, not substance, but that’s the New Merican way. Appearances, my friend, appearances. Smoke, mirrors, and bear traps.
Say, as long as we’re on that OpenSecrets page, we note the entry for Jon Corzine listing $$882,932 in bundling.
The truly paranoid would point to the headline this week that the “US Lawsuit against (Jon) Corzine over MF Global collapse can proceed, judge rules…” and wonder if that figures in, if at all.
Ask me when we have more time.
Guns on De Nile
70 wounded so far and four dead police in Cairo and Egypt continues to play out a kind of gangstah version of democracy. Wait, let’s change this up to…
Cynics Corner: The Daily Bomber
So it’s now five in Egypt, then.
None as a small bomb went off near a church in Rome where the Pope is meeting with the prez of France. No word if the hottie would join ‘em.
US and Russia are cooperating on bomb investigation (making and detecting) technique in advance of Sochi.
US Officials are downplaying an apparently foiled embassy bombing plot in Israel.
The Washington Beacon reports the nuke deal with Iran only delays their Big bomb by one month.
Six dead from an explosion – car bomb- at an auto repair shop in Pakistan. No details on whether the car was in for a bomb repair or not…
Meantime, our editor in chief says out new motto for this section ought to be “All the news you can fuse.”
Those so-called peace talks in Geneva are in trouble.
Leave it to Bieber
Things keep going from bad to worse for America’s latest bad boy du media.. Bet you or I would be popped for a lot more than $2,500 on similar charges…wanna bet?
A reputed mobster pleads not guilty to a $5.8 million heist back in 1978. Statue of limitations would be my first question…
Good article on the PLOS: Public Health Perspectives site this morning about the return of H1N1 and how it can make a mess of things this time of year.
“It was possibly the worst illness i ever had. Over a two day period last week I basically slept 40 out of 48 hours. My body basically shut down…. never experienced anything like it. I’m still suffering with sinus and chest congestion. I was the 3rd of 4 in my family that got sick consecutively. “
The CDC Weekly flu map (Jan 11) doesn’t look particularly bad – so far. But give it time, drink plenty of fluids, and write us in the morning.