Markets: Do Stocks Forecast “News?”

Or, does the stock market react to events?

We should find out this week.  Let me give you a crackpot theory to ponder.

I noticed something very strange this summer as I was crunching numbers trying to sort out some aspects of “futuring” and how that related to the stock market.

In the process of doing so, I isolated a semi-regular heartbeat in the market.  So I informally started “tuning in” to how the market seemed to moved.

Now, you’d expect that the market would react to the news events.  Yet, when I considered the “mood swings” reflected in the data, it seemed like the market was slightly anticipatory.  Who knows?  Maybe stock market investors – focusing not only on the present moment’s data, actually tend to discount future events differently from the rest of us.

At any rate, when you chart it out – and put in some color bands to help focus-in on what you’re looking out, comes out like this:

As you can see in this view, we may have a day or three left before the next “mood swing” begins to settle in.  That’s because this view still isn’t quite up to the tippy-top of the upper (blue) band.  Which you can think of as the “tipping point” where optimism begins to falter and begins to fail while the bottom yellow band may be where pessimism has finally run its course.

This is not to make any claims that events will sour.  Only that, in one half-crazy way of looking at the Universe, there is a weak case (down in the noise) that we could be ready for some major change.

Which amounts to a reason to put on our “speculative spectacles” and see what’s ahead that might constitute the “tip…”

Next stop?

Our News Scanning Tool

Over at https://computationalfuture.com I constructed a simple RSS aggregating website that throws-up (pun intended!) current syndicated news headlines because as fine a job as the human-curated sites (like Drudge, et al) do, I don’t like “push” technology that force browser refreshing to pump page views.  Besides, running our own RSS filters lets us focus on the two things that really matter in life (or, so says son G2):  Making money and having fun!

OK, so there’s not much “fun” on the C/F (yes, I know that means carry-forward in accountantese!) site, but it does OK on tracking money-related stuff:

Ford recalling nearly 1 million vehicles to replace Takata air bag inflators, for example, catches our eye so we watch guess who’s stock price?  But that’s not a “market mover” per se.

On the other hand, US China Trade Talks are one item that could (potentially) blow up global markets.  Soo, we keep an eye on China has ‘good faith’ to fix trade issues as talks with U.S. resume.  A walk-out here could knock a lot of wind out of markets.  Oh, and the timing would be right.

Word that “President Trump Says He’s Negotiating a Second Summit With Kim Jong Un” has us wondering why?

Meanwhile, we anticipate China will begin work shortly on terraforming either Mars or the Moon.  Why?  Because “There are plants and animals on the Moon now (because of China)” foreshadows things going in that direction.  (And, because in Ure’s Crackpot Cosmology That Explains Everything (UCCTEE), Earth may have been terraformed prior to Velikovsky’s great interplanetary disaster that wiped our Mars in the first place.  We, in turn, pass down being “planted here” as an Eden myth, but we’ll save that for another morning.)

Making matters more muddied, Teslas are to be grown in China now as Tesla CEO Musk breaks ground at Shanghai Gigafactory to launch China push.  Did he not get the MAGA memo?

Where were we?  Oh yes…

Any big blow-up over BREXIT is also a potential trade-changer.  As “Assets worth $1 trillion to shift from UK to EU due to Brexit: EY,” we wonder who would want to throw in with the superr-government socialist Ponziers of Brussels?

Just before any kind of tip, we ought to expect stories like “Central banks, U.S. employers aid world stock recovery” to pop up.

Of course, the fedgov shutdown continues with intransigence continuing to build.  And we love it when socialist darling blow on the ember of division because it reveals who they really are (lazy divisive freeloaders!).  Latest example?  “FOX NEWS FIRST: No end in sight for shutdown; Factually ‘clumsy’ Ocasio-Cortez attacks Trump for ‘lies’”  You’d have to take time off work for yoga to follow this, of course.

We do notice the socialist wunderkind are not explaining how they can follow a bankrupt political power-grabbing philosophy especially with stories like “A Venezuelan Supreme Court Judge Has Fled to the U.S. to Protest President Maduro’s Rule” emanating from socialist victim states.

There’s a lot of this power-grabbing stuff going around.  As in The Gabon Army Says It Has Launched a Coup to ‘Restore Democracy’.

So, Looking Ahead for the Week…

Trial to Begin in Case Challenging the Trump Administration’s Census Citizenship Question.

By the end of this week, there may be layoffs all over the country as the US golvernment’s federal court system runs out of money Friday.  Will big law firms begin to furlough people since there won’t be any courts to process paperwork?

ISM and other data come at mid-session today and tomorrow we get a look at trade data.

But, as people figure out that yes, there may be non-trivial impacts from the gov-shut, the markets don’t seem likely to roll up from here.  Brinksmanship by the idiocracy continues.

Global Cooling to Continue

We really appreciate the hard work of NOAA and the Solar Cycle Progression researchers up in Boulder for working through the shutdown to provide us with a longer view of how we’re possibly entering an extended solar minimum that the Mainstream Media doesn’t want to deal with – even with a 10-foot pole.

But, as we advised when the early 2019-2020 projected data came out – and it became obvious in the front data that the solar minimum would likely extend – and maybe a LOT – here we see in today’s report how things still look “flat-line” for another 4-years…

Not only are we dramatically under-performing, but we have also seen the predicted uptick in global earthquakes as the crust of the Earth begins to cool, resulting in increased potential for volcanism.

This has huge important for all life forms.  It means that if you have a chance, it might not be a bad idea to shade your bets just a bit more toward warmer climates.  And toward taking up gardening because most of us have taken up eating…

As we see it, some of the major “weather” resources are (perhaps unawares) tilting the data to keep the public under-informed about the cooling reality of climate.

Just as an example, I was up at 3:30 AM this morning updating some of my own climate research.  When I went to use the WeatherUnderground.com site, what did I find?  Well, instead of a nifty annual lookup, they now are monthly as a max date range.  Or, if it’s there, I sure didn’t find it…

In one of my browsers the “History” tab, it kept switching me to locally-operated (personal) weather stations. And on the area map, the official KTYR (Tyler Texas, Pounds Field) isn’t even active.  Curious, I thought.  (Switching people to a billion data sources would sure light up the data debate, wouldn’t it?  Divide, divide and then conquer, eh?)

Finally, I found a reasonable source over here.  And for a really great display, try this page.  Tyler Texas Weather (dot com).

When Ure looking at data, consistency is everything and being able to zoom into a multi-year view is sure useful. Especially if you remember the difference between an average and a mean.

The Old George’s Almanac 2019

As long as I had the data up from the Tyler Texas Weather page, I tossed the data into Excel and then recalculated the means after data scrubbing.

In the left-most column, yellow is the solar cycle high.  Blue is the solar cycle low.  In the data table, Red is hotter than the mean while green is cooler than the mean.  Yellow is at the mean.

Here’s what it looks like  (red hotter than mean, green cooler):

This enables me to make the East Texas Outback Crackpot pass at an almanac for this year.  Since 2019 seems to be “mid-pointing” between 2007 and 2008 data, we would expect temps in that range for the year.

Simple, huh?  A lot should clarify as the solar minimum extension comes into clearer focus.  Warmer, wetter winters, cooler summer?  Hoo-rah Bubba!

Not saying my work is right – and obviously YMMV.  But to me, a simple generalization goes something like:

“The mean temperature data seems to offer the notion that when we are at the peak of a solar cycle (and shortly thereafter by 1-2 years) we experience hotter summers in East Texas.

Conversely, at the solar minima (and shortly after by a year or two) we get warmer winters and cooler summers.”

We could go deeper with a monthly variances study, but since the solar cycle is offset from Earthling calendars, hardly worth the effort.  It’s just this should be a peach of a year, here.  A warmer winter and a cooler summer.  And what’s not to like about that?

Inferential statistics class is now dismissed.

Stories of Grand Amusement

Marvelous one here:  “Mathematician couple forces wedding party to answer math problems during dinner.”  All we can say is It Figures.

And when we read “Australian mother appears to drive away with child, 4, on roof of car” we thought someone should call Mitt Romney.  He’s off the hook!

But, if you give a rip about who’s running CBS or what Gaga worn at the Globes, you are likely part of the problem, not part of the solution to what ails the planetentiary.  Waste of your precious brain cells and time on Earth on BS…makes the masters of manipulation rich in ratings….

Or, gee, gosh:  Maybe I should take tomorrow off for yoga, centering, and to dream of a Marxist world where I get to be the Supreme Rules of All like the Bernie /Cortez ilk?

Naw…

Moron the ‘morrow…unlike upstart politicians, we actually work around here.  And when not working, I’ve been scratching my head wondering why Zeus the Cat has taken to climbing ladders.  Damnedest thing I’ve seen in a long while.  Aluminum ladder, too, so toss the “claw sharpening” theories…Maybe he wants to put up a new ham antenna for me, perhaps?  (I should see how he does around the SWR bridge…)

35 thoughts on “Markets: Do Stocks Forecast “News?””

  1. G,
    speaking of wasting brain cells, there is “news” of a new powerful strain of fact -resistant humans who are threatening the ability of earth to sustain life.
    It is called Cortex Neurophy Numbosis or CNN, but not to be confused with typical Left Brain Shrivel.
    Study done at University of Southern West Central Minnesota , identifies a virulent strain of humans who are virtually immune to any form of verifiable knowledge, leaving scientist at a loss as to how to combat them..” what we found most puzzling are the strain of fact-resistant humans that seem to deny that aiming a gun at a law enforcement officer is not going to end well, strapping a bomb to themselves does not advance a religion of peace, and most puzzling to us in our findings, why people continue to vote Democrat?”

    Yoga = one of the tools/keys/practice to understanding to and mastering Gravity, and thereby greatly increasing your longevity…”soft” martial arts same idea.

    R.T.R. (rip the rally)

    • Wow, Velikovsky’s “Worlds in Collision”. Einstein said it was a credible theoretical event.
      Can’t wait for your take on it!

    • You seem to have your political parties all backwards East Coast. I don’t know of any liberals that think aiming a gun at an officer is a good thing. If a person aims a gun at any law enforcement official, he needs to be prepared to be Swiss cheese. Pretty much everyone but the dumba*# with the gun thinks that.

      I don’t Know of any liberal that condones strapping a bomb to themselves to advance religion. Most liberals I know (I am not a liberal BTW…just common ground citizen), are not religious for this reason. They think religion can make you do crazy stuff. They are very hawkish, military wise, when it comes to eliminating terrorism that is based on extremist interpretations of a religion.

      Facts? The extreme right doesn’t like to bother themselves with those silly things. They aren’t Occum Razor types. They would rather believe that junior college dropout broadcasters like Hannity and Limbaugh poses more knowledge and wisdom than 98% of the world wide (or Wise) media. They would rather listen to Trumps words and spend an hour trying to decipher what he really meant to say…(fills time slots for Fox) rather than admit he is dumb as a bucket of sludge.

      The extreme right would rather believe that 98% of the world wide media has an anti-Trump agenda and is conspiring to bring him down rather than actually listening to the stupid things he says and does and admit that all the world wide media is doing is playing back his off the rails speeches and letting the democratic process of figuring it out for yourself take the place of one sided state run media (FOX).

      I am officially Republican…though, as I stated earlier, very MOR…and I have many Republican friends and they all see what I see. I am not swayed by the opinions of anyone but what I see with my own eyes and experience with my own mind. The default response of pretty much all extreme right Republicans is that anyone to the left of their opinion are sheeples of the left leaning press. That couldn’t be further from the truth.

      Back to Occums Razor…If supplied with the information from all media, including Fox, one finds that the problem solving principal that essentially states that the simpler solutions are more likely to be correct than the complex ones. When presented with competing hypothesis to solve a problem, one should select the solution with the fewest assumptions.

      It seems to me that extreme right Republicans, have a lot of assumptions and conspiracy theories they like to attach to their arguments. The thing is…none are verifiable. When I hear the words that come out of Trumps mouth…I can’t nor would I assume he means anything but those scrambled set of words he mutters. If I can’t make sense of them, The simplest explanation is that he has no sense of what he is talking about. Therefore…the virulent strain seems to be the fact resistant extreme right.

      • I am right with you on what you just wrote Mark.. totally agree with everything..you said..
        Except.. I do think Trump is trying to right decades of wrong and is being stopped at anything he is trying. I think he got in the race at first because he was just being a smart azz and never ever thought he could do anything.. sort of like.. Ross.. I would have loved to see him in office to..
        but once he got in he thought heck. I haven’t anything to loose.. I am already wealthy.. famous, and have a great company I win either way but if I can fix what has been destroyed for decades then I will go down in history.. he wins either way.. but… WHAT IF… he could fix it give america a little pride again…
        our whole existence is probably what he spends on hankies..( OOPS I FORGOT POCKET SQUARES LOL)

      • @ mark

        what are you going to do when you run out of ‘labels’ for various groups of people…how about one for those of us who believe in the ‘Constitution’ and very limited government…. PS to bad the South didn’t win….Confederacy (Confederation) – a union by compact or treaty between states, provinces or territories that creates a central government with limited powers; the constituent entities retain supreme authority over all matters except those delegated to the central government.

        Constitutional – a government by or operating under an authoritative document (constitution) that sets forth the system of fundamental laws and principles that determines the nature, functions and limits of that government.

    • “Cortex Neurophy Numbosis or CNN, but not to be confused with typical Left Brain Shrivel.”

      OTFLMAO

      God E/D that is the Best one yet LOL I just wished I would have thought of it LOL

  2. George

    “Velikovsky’s great interplanetary disaster that wiped our Mars in the first place.”

    From: https://www.ancient-code.com/scientist-concludes-there-is-evidence-of-ancient-nuclear-weapons-on-mars/

    “Mars xenon is found to match closely the component in the Earth’s atmosphere produced by Earth’s nuclear weapons programs, both hydrogen bomb testing and plutonium production, both of which involve large amounts of fission with fast neutrons. It is found that Mars xenon can be approximately by a mixture of 70% Nuclear Testing xenon, mixed with 30% natural Earth xenon, suggesting that Mars xenon was similar to Earth’s before a large nuclear event altered it dramatically.”

    There are some things withing our solar system that completely challenge everything we know.

    Mars is one of those places that’s really odd. For example, it has been found that the red planet has an unusually high concentration of Xenon 129 in its thin atmosphere.

    As it turns out, Gas Isotope Xenon 129 is produced by NUCLEAR REACTIONS.

    In addition to that huge mystery, researchers have found that the surface of Mars is covered excessively with uranium and thorium.

    This has led some scientists like Dr. John Brandenburg to conclude that it’s very likely that TWO large ANOMALOUS nuclear explosions took place on Mars in the distant past.
    _____________________________________________________

    Seems that mars is not the kind of place you want to raise a child to quote the song!

    • I read a lot of Velikofsky’s work. I doubt there were nuclear explosions on Mars, the result of idiot aliens blowing themselves up and making the planet uninhabitable. According to Velikofsky, Mars was hammered by other objects from space producing collisions that resulted in destructive forces on the scale of a nuclear explosion. Notably, the Russian Tunguska event in 1908.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event

      where it is estimated that,

      “The 15-megaton (Mt) estimate represents an energy about 1,000 times greater than that of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, Japan—roughly equal to that of the United States’ Castle Bravo (15.2 Mt) ground-based thermonuclear detonation on 1 March 1954, and about one-third that of the Soviet Union’s Tsar Bomba explosion on 30 October 1961 (which, at 50 Mt, is the largest nuclear weapon ever detonated).”

      So Yes, I believe there is damage on Mars comparable to nuclear explosions, but I suspect they were the result of natural disasters, rather than alien technology.

      Velikofsky’s work was extremely controversial, so much so, he was a pariah when he published his findings. His work was VERY INTERESTING, and should have been followed up by others. But it wasn’t! Human nature is such that it is easier to destroy something and gain public prominence rather than build on someone else’s theory and help build their public personae.

      Velikofsky studied ancient legends, and tried to related them with what could have happened in our solar system. He speculated that Venus was a rogue planet, collided with Mars, and settled into its present orbit next to Mercury. In this collision, the Mars orbit was moved further out to where it is today. This assumption was the result of ancient writings where Mars and its moons were visible with the naked eye, where today, they are not.

      Another legend describes a major collision with earth. Ancient legends reported a great thunder that shook the earth and the sun fell out of the sky.

      Velikofsky’s belief was most ancients experienced something that happened, and it the context of their limited knowledge at the time tried to explain it as best as they could. In a sense, the legends are a misrepresentation of the cause, a lie. However, a lie is basically “truth in disguise.” Rip away the disguise, and the truth shall be there! I believe there is a wealth of information in old legends waiting to be explored.

  3. George,

    As to the lack of data on the Weather underground site, perhaps you have forgotten that the Weather Channel and Weather Underground are now owned by a comedian. Maybe it is just another bad joke.

  4. Zeus just wants a loftier view of the world, or has noticed a varmint that is making its home somewhere up the ladder. Maybe he’s just started a new workout regimen, and wants to start the New Year with a bang !! No pun intended !!

  5. Do Stocks Forecast “News?”

    Only in the sense that the flow is bi-directional. Dec index numbers are predicated on data that reflects an addiction to spend as a “junkie’s fix”. This data, drives an illogical response that feeling good equates with everything else being just fine. We see the spin equivalence being directed that the market is ok or not distressed. A sick market responding to a junkie needing a spend fix, the spiral is not an upward trend.

    If the spending junkie believes that illogical behavior can continue unabated, with index numbers providing a rosy forecast, it produces a feeding frenzy that only escalates the unsustainable trend, one feeds the other. Stock forecasts for the most part always present a silver lining to dark storm clouds.

    News is directed to promote agendas, agendas use only supporting facts. It then must be considered what “new’s facts” support market growth. When they report debt facts with rosy outlooks, i.e. Dec index numbers with Dec debt increases, I’ll consider that unbias news.

    Rosy Dec numbers produced by a once a year holiday spending spee to supports an increase in further spending is not irrational to the addicted spending public. Why because spending is a high and provides a sense of well being, just like a drug.

  6. Question from someone who isn’t all that knowledgeable in the world of science – Am reading a book you suggested that also supports what you wrote this morning about the lack of sunspots, the sun cooling and how it will impact this marble we live on.

    As you briefly hinted – moving to warmer climates due to cooling- and with the increase in volcanism (thereby making things even cooler), what does that all mean for the future of water? Especially in places like Ca, Az, Nm and Tx where the population is increasing substantially? Will it mean that there will be more snowfall further north that will not melt into the rivers that water those states? Or, will it just be cold and dry? Should those above the 48th line start migrating further south?

    • As you know Pepper, I don’t make recommendations. I like the “just kicking it around” – but it was clear years ago (circa o2002 when we bought this place) that there was about an equal amount of “noise” on either side of the arguments on heating/cooling. When in doubt? Take an average – oh, and look at history.
      I delegated the problem in most ways to Elaine and her brother – and they made a damn-fine choice. While there are some aspects of living in small town (and South) there are plenty of benefits, too.
      What we were attempting (and so far, it has been brilliant) is to pick a place where the oceans are not likely to swamp us in event of tsunamis or subsidence. Where if it got 5 degrees warmer it might rain more and if it got cooler, there would still be a long growing season.
      I covered a lot of this recently in “strategic relocation” which you can refer to over here:
      https://urbansurvival.com/strategic-economic-relocation/
      One has to be realistic: If self employed, you need to be where cutomers are. If you are a farmer, the land prices and outputs have to make sense with rising input costs – all the rest of it.
      But, in the end, we wanted to be in a place that MIGHT be manageable by two people – or more – when the family remnants start to show up wanting a place to live through really bad times that history suggests could be ahead.
      That may sound like a waffle (Danish-Scottish, not Belgian, lol) but, it’s not…really.
      Draw a line across the USA and look at long-term balance of flows and the upper South and lower North seems like a better place than sitting on the border or the Gulf on the south, or being up on the Canadian border, unless, like my son,m you think in terms of underground housing and such as coping mechanisms that have life/energy saving feature sets.

  7. It has come to my attention, maybe from the Oscars last night, that a certain faction of the liberal left is suggesting the use of killer drones to stop illegal imigrants vs. a wall. They believe technology is superior to an out of date wall like Israel successfully uses.

    They said ,  “Let’s talk about technology. There was an article in today’s Chronicle about how drones are being used to attack an invasive and sometimes fatal Aisian Hornet on the Iberian Peninsula. The drones are programmed to pinpoint the swarms and nests, apply insecticide and kill the tiny and evasive Hornets.”

    Even my conservative bent wouldn’t suggest something so horrendous & immoral. It’s crazy. Let them run into the wall,  not be shot by a deadly laser or chemical from a flying drone. That’s criminal. Even Ruth Bader Ginsburg would be shocked (she only approves of killing unborn babies). That is not PT’s goal for a wall. I hope Rush picks this up.

    • ONMG you DON’T understand the misleading sales program of socialism.
      here’s how it works:;
      They will say “Gee technology is an answer.”
      Then you go to “killer drone, or even flying taser platforms…”
      Suddenly, – after you delay building the wall because of the bait and switch (B/S for those who catch it) they will then appeal to “decency” and will bleed their way into yet-another half-ass leftist idea.
      Fact is, these are the same people who want to fight racism by introducing? More Racism. Except because it’s “against a different group” THAT is OK.
      You following this? Overt racism is, to our way of egalitarian thinking, no better than REVERSE racism because the scorekeepers are mostly partisans. (Or worse, academics).
      Just another example of how socialists sell one thing, then bait and switch into something worse. In the current discussion, open borders that are still not defensible.

      Two wrongs don’t make a right…and tech has yet to really “win” a war.,

      • George and Anonymus,
        About the border… I wrote about this the other day. But Chris Wallace of Fox News challenged Sara Sanders on the very thing I was talking about. …Yes, I watch all news programs…

        That is…When Sarah tried to say that over 4,000 known or suspected terrorists are coming through our southern border…Wallace replied…

        “Do you know where those 4,000 people come, where they are captured?” Wallace responded. “Airports … the state department says there hasn’t been any terrorists found coming across the southern border.”

        He continued…“But special interest aliens are just people who have come from countries that have ever produced a terrorist, they’re not terrorists themselves,” Wallace said. He also cited a State Department report saying that there has been no “credible evidence” of terrorists crossing the southern border from Mexico.

        This is why I don’t like the Lying Trump Train…I give Chris Wallace huge credit here for being a reporter and not just a paid shill of the President. The real facts…the Occums razor of the “wall” issue, is that let’s put our focus on our ports, whether they be land, sea or air. There are trillions of dollars in imports coming through our ports each year…Those products have smuggled goods in them. A wall is NOT going to stop that…

        Another thing, smuggling and contraband in an extremely busy and crowded port is like finding a needle in a hay stack… In other words…easier to smuggle…harder to find, depending on the creativity of the hidden drugs or illegal goods.

        A remote section along the remote southern border of New Mexico is easier to track via satellite and with arial drones. In he boonies it is all empty land and when you see motion and movement along an empty space, it makes it easier to locate. A wall won’t stop anyone in a remote area. You will still need a drone or some type of satellite imagery to see them climbing over or digging under it…and then send someone out via helicopter to get them…None of these remote areas can be manned and technology would be needed anyway…I could make the case that a wall can act as a cover while they try to navigate over or under it.

        Bottom line…crossing through a remote section of the border is also dangerous and expensive for the smugglers…They can’t drive a truck through it without being detected. They can’t strap the drugs or whatever on their back and survive…It’s an impractical method…which is why they get creative and smuggle it in the gas tanks of cars and machinery, inside stuffed animals etc at our busiest ports.

      • So, Mark, you call for the use of Occam’s Razor? Really? I suggest you find it, first.

        If a “point of entry” is like a candle,
        the Southern border is like the Sun.

        Chris Wallace is no-less Liberal than other media “journalists.” He cited the State Department, which would have no frickin’ idea whatsoever, instead of citing the Department of Homeland Security, under whose auspices both border crossings and POE violations would fall. Speaking of the State Department…

        Would that be Obama’s “State Department” which, after two years into a new Administration, is still Obama’s, because of the hundreds of Trump appointees who have STILL NOT BEEN CONFIRMED?

        “Technology” can not work. The best it can do, without employing autonomous killing devices is to inform the Border Patrol that invaders are present and currently invading. Are you in-favor of “killer drones” or autonomous Phalanx’?

    • I didn’t see that ECS LOL it is kind of interesting that this was hinted at.. become like Adolph in a group that is mostly Jewish LOL LOL.. if you knew you would be shot on sight.. sure would put a damper in illegal aliens coming to the USA to.. LOL…..Or be put in a work camp LOL.. phew.. what an image that makes..

  8. “does the stock market react to events?”

    Hmm. I think YES. I was taught that the stock market was you bought a share of a company..

    My father use to say.. if you like a product, like their advertisements ,and how they package the product, love their view of future company growth then support it..

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/11048689/108-year-old-investor-I-doubled-my-money-in-1929-crash-and-Im-still-winning.html
    https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/lose-money-stock-market-crashes/

    its just like the dollar.. we value the dollar.. right now I can buy one can of tuna on a dollar(on sale) but back in the early seventies I could get eight cans of tuna on sale for a dollar..
    bread.. not even ten years ago was 87 cents a loaf today it is 2.58 a loaf..

    with stock market if your young buy stocks at a low rate now on good solid companies you may be paying 100.00 a share the market falls that stock may be 1.00 a share.. you still have a share in the stock market.. but if you hold steady that stock we rebound if it is a good product solid company and you have thirty plus years to wait..

    https://hbr.org/2014/09/profits-without-prosperity

    Hyperinflation is in a lot of ways similar to a stock market crash but reverse.. your income stays the same prices go up.. prices go up.. like with me.. if lets say grocery expenses go up a hundred dollars a payday.. I have to have them.. you will cut back and buy potatoes and pasta.. rice.. sales of these items go up during a recession.. but you still had an increase.. this means that you have a hundred dollars less to spend lets say on a new washer or dryer new clothes or anyone of a thousand things..
    like this year as an example I have to cut back almost sixteen thousand dollars in spending that I would normally have to put someplace else because necessity increases took that much so .. there won’t be any new washer or dryers.. I will go to the laundromat if they break down.. no new microwave ovens or toys to speak of.no night on the towns dining out etc… everything has to be watched closely..
    consider I am the average.. and the average cuts fifteen thousand dollars a year off of spending.. you now have a depression.. stores can’t sell goods.. can’t employ.. no manufacturing. it becomes a spiral .. starts slow..then escalates as credit runs out. DJT is trying to stop that.. put another million workers that won’t pay taxes in the system.. secure our borders to stop illegal aliens from entering. bring back manufacturing.. we can see how the down turn in spending is affecting even china.. yes.. it isn’t just us.. it is the world.. the ripple since most of our money is spent to support their economy.. if we pulled back took care of the USA instead of going after what the puppeteers want..how many hundreds of billions of dollars that could be saved to rebuild america.. simple straight forward he would benefit from the stronger dollar and save a country.

    https://web.stanford.edu/class/e297c/poverty_prejudice/soc_sec/hgreat.htm

    by building and repairing our infrastructure.. I think it helped a great deal.. put people to work.. opened up manufacturing.. the older industrialists realized you cannot take money out of a local economy.. today that is exactly what we do.. we rob peter to pay paul and our communities show it.
    .
    we have become a consumption nation.. so yes in my opinion as prices go up and income goes down the stock market will decrease the same rate or faster than what spending is projected as.. what happens in the economy does affect and control stocks..

    I think if your young enough to hold tough for thirty years or so while the market tanks you will glean the profits that are lost if it drops like a rock..

    What would be best is to invest in rock solid companies after they tank than while they are at the top.. though if you buy at the top and it tanks you you have lost what you had initially invested but you still have the stock if it is a rock solid company

    At this point we spend almost half of our national budget on someplace else.. our money that should be going to workers pockets is being sent someplace else.. there is very little that actually stays here in our local economies..
    the view from the bottom of the stack

  9. George,

    Not sure if you or your readers are aware of Ben Davidson over at suspiciousobservers.com or yootoob but he presents some pretty good stuff regarding climate and the future. In addition, try the diehold foundation as well. Sun going into micro nova is a pretty scary thought that aligns up with historical contexts. Check it out, or at least assign Zeus to wade through it. I’d be curious to get your take.

    • I often think about Davidson’s work whenever G talks this stuff, too.

      He knows about him. Could probably go tothe February convention upcoming, were he inclined to go. Maybe this topic will encourage him to give it a go, before Davidson decided not to put them on anymore. I hope G will at least consider it; Might help out some of his own work if he did.

  10. I read Velikovsky’s “Worlds in Collision” back in H.S. – I was intrigued by his theories. Among those cited that I have a problem with are these (via Wikipedia’s summary of his famous book):

    ” . . . around the 15th century BCE, Venus was ejected from Jupiter as a comet or comet-like object, passed near Earth (an actual collision is not mentioned). The object changed Earth’s orbit and axial inclination, causing innumerable catastrophes which were mentioned in early mythologies and religions around the world. Fifty-two years later, it passed close by again, stopping the Earth’s rotation for a while and causing more catastrophes. Then, in the 8th and 7th centuries BCE, Mars (itself displaced by Venus) made close approaches to the Earth; this incident caused a new round of disturbances and disasters.”

    If this is so, and if the rotation of the planet Earth and our apparently length of the year were altered, then why is Stonehenge, built and estimated 3000 years BCE, still to accurate wrt the solstices and equinoxes in our modern age? Stonehenge was built 1500 years before Velikovsky claims Venuse did its Earth fly-by. We the builders of Stonehenge psychic and constructed their monument to track future celestial events?

    Also, per PhyOrg, RE: Venus, ” . . . the Babylonians realized that these two “stars” were in fact the same object – as indicated in the Venus tablet of Ammisaduqa, dated 1581 BCE.”

    This overlaps Velikovsky’s the theorized time of Venus passing of Earth, throwing doubt on any serious consideraton to a 1500 BCE Venus fly-by. Oh, and the same Babylonians appeared to ignore or delete said Venus fly- by from their detailed astronomical records.

    Velikovsky may be on to something, but his timeline seems very arbitrary, picked more to try and justify the spectacular Torah/Bible events of Exodus than to accurately validate some particular celestial happening.

  11. George, am glad you/others are still working on this Global Warming issue. Thank you.
    Right NOW, the case is 97-3 (of peer reviewed scientists) in favor of the Global Warming position, but let’s say that your hard work has perhaps shifted the case now to 96-4. But keep up the good work. Someday you might get it down to 94-6.
    The question is what to do today, NOW, when faced with even a 90-10 issue on a catastrophic issue. I use the bridge example. If 90 times out of 100 it will collapse, do we drive over it TODAY, or retrofit it first?
    Right NOW, to deny global warming is to take a huge risk, where the best evidence right NOW says it’s 97 to 3 against you. Best, Mike.

    • It’s like I said: If the “scientists” are paid for a result, they are partisans, not science dudes.
      Now, if you can find people who don’t make their living off the grantstreams that are outcome-predetermination games, you might be onto something.
      That said, you’re not.
      Send us your food in 9-years when it’s too cold to grow.

      • George, like your blow off top, the first symptom of global warming might be cooling. This is as probable as your crazy notion that it’s OK to take a 97% risk now because maybe, possibly the data ten years after you crossed the bridge said it was OK. I mean, is that stupid, or what??? (BTW, they are peer reviewed, not like your Heritage crowd that you conservatives traffic in.) Best, Mike.

      • That’s just plain stupid. Like sayhing the first sign of bankruptcy is winning the lotto. Get serious/

      • HI, George, I am with you on this ridiculous global warming ‘theory’ being used to browbeat America and of course, raise our taxes, cut off our industries, redistribute wealth, propaganda brainwashing daily, the funding cycle of grants to get the result they start off looking for, etc., ad infinitum, punishment in all its phases. Here is a PERFECT example of when science gets it soooo wrong, and influences so many to poor health, and demonizes a man who got it right, we are seeing this same influence/behavior with regards to the negative impact on vaccinations being ignored by MSM because of big pharma funding and the globalists pushing the vaccinations AND ignoring all evidence of harm. This article impacts everyone: https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-sugar-conspiracy

    • 850 years ago, hemispheric temperature norms were ~7 degrees higher than they are today. Please explain why YOU believe today’s temperatures are anything more than a correction back to a state of normality.

      Percentages don’t cross from opinion to practice. They especially don’t cross twice.

      Were the OPINION of zero percent, OR 100% of scientists that man-made global warming was an issue of concern, logically the likelihood of its actually being so is exactly 50%. When the data has been cooked, and a vast majority of the opiners are tainted by a financial interest in one conclusion over the other, the actuality will differ radically from the opinion of the interested parties.

      For anyone to know a bridge is going to fall 90 times out of 100, it would have had to have done so, and been rebuilt at least 99 times. In such a case, personally, I’d find a competent structural engineer and builder with whom to replace the obviously incompetent ones that’ve been designing & building all those crappy bridges.

  12. I noticed your Excel skills. If you don’t have enough toys to play around with, there is an app called Tableau that takes in all kinds of data sources individually or combined. You can perform joins and unions easily. Once that is done it lets you “visualize” the data in just about as many ways as you can creatively manipulate. Very cool tool you could use for your charts, graphs, etc… for a business expense.

  13. George,
    Let us not forget that coincidence is not causality and the post box ergo propter box falicy. There is some iinteresting historical weather data in the “Smithsonian Miscellaneous Publications” https/ /:library.si.edu. Keep up the good work. As always I enjoy your blog.

    An old librarian

  14. With the troubles in the stock market, we are witnessing a rise in the public profile of VP Pence. The implications seem obvious to me, the stock market is a driving agenda in the country’s politics.

  15. “we see in today’s report how things still look “flat-line” for another 4-years…”

    Re: solar flares – it’s an 11 year cycle (we’re approaching the end of) and that chart shows a 15 year view, so actually flares should pick up off the ‘flat line’ sooner than 4 years FYI

    • Sorry – yes, you’d think so. But we downloaded the predicted tables data and did not find any increase out past 2020

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