Or, does the stock market react to events?
We should find out this week. Let me give you a crackpot theory to ponder.
I noticed something very strange this summer as I was crunching numbers trying to sort out some aspects of “futuring” and how that related to the stock market.
In the process of doing so, I isolated a semi-regular heartbeat in the market. So I informally started “tuning in” to how the market seemed to moved.
Now, you’d expect that the market would react to the news events. Yet, when I considered the “mood swings” reflected in the data, it seemed like the market was slightly anticipatory. Who knows? Maybe stock market investors – focusing not only on the present moment’s data, actually tend to discount future events differently from the rest of us.
At any rate, when you chart it out – and put in some color bands to help focus-in on what you’re looking out, comes out like this:
As you can see in this view, we may have a day or three left before the next “mood swing” begins to settle in. That’s because this view still isn’t quite up to the tippy-top of the upper (blue) band. Which you can think of as the “tipping point” where optimism begins to falter and begins to fail while the bottom yellow band may be where pessimism has finally run its course.
This is not to make any claims that events will sour. Only that, in one half-crazy way of looking at the Universe, there is a weak case (down in the noise) that we could be ready for some major change.
Which amounts to a reason to put on our “speculative spectacles” and see what’s ahead that might constitute the “tip…”
Our News Scanning Tool
Over at https://computationalfuture.com I constructed a simple RSS aggregating website that throws-up (pun intended!) current syndicated news headlines because as fine a job as the human-curated sites (like Drudge, et al) do, I don’t like “push” technology that force browser refreshing to pump page views. Besides, running our own RSS filters lets us focus on the two things that really matter in life (or, so says son G2): Making money and having fun!
OK, so there’s not much “fun” on the C/F (yes, I know that means carry-forward in accountantese!) site, but it does OK on tracking money-related stuff:
Ford recalling nearly 1 million vehicles to replace Takata air bag inflators, for example, catches our eye so we watch guess who’s stock price? But that’s not a “market mover” per se.
On the other hand, US China Trade Talks are one item that could (potentially) blow up global markets. Soo, we keep an eye on China has ‘good faith’ to fix trade issues as talks with U.S. resume. A walk-out here could knock a lot of wind out of markets. Oh, and the timing would be right.
Word that “President Trump Says He’s Negotiating a Second Summit With Kim Jong Un” has us wondering why?
Meanwhile, we anticipate China will begin work shortly on terraforming either Mars or the Moon. Why? Because “There are plants and animals on the Moon now (because of China)” foreshadows things going in that direction. (And, because in Ure’s Crackpot Cosmology That Explains Everything (UCCTEE), Earth may have been terraformed prior to Velikovsky’s great interplanetary disaster that wiped our Mars in the first place. We, in turn, pass down being “planted here” as an Eden myth, but we’ll save that for another morning.)
Making matters more muddied, Teslas are to be grown in China now as Tesla CEO Musk breaks ground at Shanghai Gigafactory to launch China push. Did he not get the MAGA memo?
Where were we? Oh yes…
Any big blow-up over BREXIT is also a potential trade-changer. As “Assets worth $1 trillion to shift from UK to EU due to Brexit: EY,” we wonder who would want to throw in with the superr-government socialist Ponziers of Brussels?
Just before any kind of tip, we ought to expect stories like “Central banks, U.S. employers aid world stock recovery” to pop up.
Of course, the fedgov shutdown continues with intransigence continuing to build. And we love it when socialist darling blow on the ember of division because it reveals who they really are (lazy divisive freeloaders!). Latest example? “FOX NEWS FIRST: No end in sight for shutdown; Factually ‘clumsy’ Ocasio-Cortez attacks Trump for ‘lies’” You’d have to take time off work for yoga to follow this, of course.
We do notice the socialist wunderkind are not explaining how they can follow a bankrupt political power-grabbing philosophy especially with stories like “A Venezuelan Supreme Court Judge Has Fled to the U.S. to Protest President Maduro’s Rule” emanating from socialist victim states.
There’s a lot of this power-grabbing stuff going around. As in The Gabon Army Says It Has Launched a Coup to ‘Restore Democracy’.
So, Looking Ahead for the Week…
By the end of this week, there may be layoffs all over the country as the US golvernment’s federal court system runs out of money Friday. Will big law firms begin to furlough people since there won’t be any courts to process paperwork?
ISM and other data come at mid-session today and tomorrow we get a look at trade data.
But, as people figure out that yes, there may be non-trivial impacts from the gov-shut, the markets don’t seem likely to roll up from here. Brinksmanship by the idiocracy continues.
Global Cooling to Continue
We really appreciate the hard work of NOAA and the Solar Cycle Progression researchers up in Boulder for working through the shutdown to provide us with a longer view of how we’re possibly entering an extended solar minimum that the Mainstream Media doesn’t want to deal with – even with a 10-foot pole.
But, as we advised when the early 2019-2020 projected data came out – and it became obvious in the front data that the solar minimum would likely extend – and maybe a LOT – here we see in today’s report how things still look “flat-line” for another 4-years…
Not only are we dramatically under-performing, but we have also seen the predicted uptick in global earthquakes as the crust of the Earth begins to cool, resulting in increased potential for volcanism.
This has huge important for all life forms. It means that if you have a chance, it might not be a bad idea to shade your bets just a bit more toward warmer climates. And toward taking up gardening because most of us have taken up eating…
As we see it, some of the major “weather” resources are (perhaps unawares) tilting the data to keep the public under-informed about the cooling reality of climate.
Just as an example, I was up at 3:30 AM this morning updating some of my own climate research. When I went to use the WeatherUnderground.com site, what did I find? Well, instead of a nifty annual lookup, they now are monthly as a max date range. Or, if it’s there, I sure didn’t find it…
In one of my browsers the “History” tab, it kept switching me to locally-operated (personal) weather stations. And on the area map, the official KTYR (Tyler Texas, Pounds Field) isn’t even active. Curious, I thought. (Switching people to a billion data sources would sure light up the data debate, wouldn’t it? Divide, divide and then conquer, eh?)
When Ure looking at data, consistency is everything and being able to zoom into a multi-year view is sure useful. Especially if you remember the difference between an average and a mean.
The Old George’s Almanac 2019
As long as I had the data up from the Tyler Texas Weather page, I tossed the data into Excel and then recalculated the means after data scrubbing.
In the left-most column, yellow is the solar cycle high. Blue is the solar cycle low. In the data table, Red is hotter than the mean while green is cooler than the mean. Yellow is at the mean.
Here’s what it looks like (red hotter than mean, green cooler):
This enables me to make the East Texas Outback Crackpot pass at an almanac for this year. Since 2019 seems to be “mid-pointing” between 2007 and 2008 data, we would expect temps in that range for the year.
Simple, huh? A lot should clarify as the solar minimum extension comes into clearer focus. Warmer, wetter winters, cooler summer? Hoo-rah Bubba!
Not saying my work is right – and obviously YMMV. But to me, a simple generalization goes something like:
“The mean temperature data seems to offer the notion that when we are at the peak of a solar cycle (and shortly thereafter by 1-2 years) we experience hotter summers in East Texas.
Conversely, at the solar minima (and shortly after by a year or two) we get warmer winters and cooler summers.”
We could go deeper with a monthly variances study, but since the solar cycle is offset from Earthling calendars, hardly worth the effort. It’s just this should be a peach of a year, here. A warmer winter and a cooler summer. And what’s not to like about that?
Inferential statistics class is now dismissed.
Stories of Grand Amusement
Marvelous one here: “Mathematician couple forces wedding party to answer math problems during dinner.” All we can say is It Figures.
And when we read “Australian mother appears to drive away with child, 4, on roof of car” we thought someone should call Mitt Romney. He’s off the hook!
But, if you give a rip about who’s running CBS or what Gaga worn at the Globes, you are likely part of the problem, not part of the solution to what ails the planetentiary. Waste of your precious brain cells and time on Earth on BS…makes the masters of manipulation rich in ratings….
Or, gee, gosh: Maybe I should take tomorrow off for yoga, centering, and to dream of a Marxist world where I get to be the Supreme Rules of All like the Bernie /Cortez ilk?
Moron the ‘morrow…unlike upstart politicians, we actually work around here. And when not working, I’ve been scratching my head wondering why Zeus the Cat has taken to climbing ladders. Damnedest thing I’ve seen in a long while. Aluminum ladder, too, so toss the “claw sharpening” theories…Maybe he wants to put up a new ham antenna for me, perhaps? (I should see how he does around the SWR bridge…)