Markets: And Down We Go?

It is too early in the day to offer an “I told you so…” BUT I did and it’s not to early to remind you of our outlook for the markets to pick up speed to the downside in coming weeks.

Today is the first  “hot day” I mentioned  back on October 26th.

The next “window” for major decline comes around November 27th.  latest details for people in the $40/year seats over in our report tomorrow.

As always, this is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE and please, it is only a possibility, not even a probability.  At least till it happens.

We based these dates on some historical relationships.  Like the 55-day span from the all-time high in September of 1929 to the October Great Crash in that year.

Crashes are funny things (not as in ha-ha, but as in queer): They don’t seem to happen from tops.  They tend to happen at “channel bottoms.”  Like a roof caving in.

There are two channels that are in trouble between now and year-end.  The first one, which could fail between now and, oh, next Tuesday, or so, is the lower blue one shown here.

There are all kinds of asterisks and footnotes attached to this view.  Some of these include:

  • I look at markets as an Aggregate since its too easy for “one index” to dominate on a particular “news flow”
  • The blue ascending line is a trend line that began in early April.
  • The red line is a simple 9-Day Moving Average (9DMA) and it won’t be until we get under the 9-Day that things will begin to get interesting.
  • Did I mention, this is NOT financial advice?

The problem with being able to “See” bits and pieces of the future when in the waking state (or, over in the dream realms on occasion) is there’s a major burden that comes with “knowing” the future.  For one, the future is never all that “solid” until it gets here – drifty space oftentimes.

But then again, it can be usefu0l to see things in advance.

When you’re looking at financial items, it’s best *(for me, anyway) to stick with the hard facts and projections on the waking side of life.  Hunches are very easily and very often misleading.

With such a long mea culpa, I’m expecting that blue support trend line to fail today and we seem likely to decline from this morning’s open, perhaps again Monday and then into a “turnaround Tuesday.”  Where’s the good news? We need to ask that every day.

The problem is that when one of these trend lines breaks, particularly when it counts as an Elliott Wave 2 top, then it sets up the Elliott Wave 3 down.  Since under Elliott, the 3rd waves are larger than first waves, we should be at a MAJOR CHANNEL BOTTOM along around the end of the month.  That’s why the nail biting around November 27th.

Which, if you’ve been paying attention, is where that lower trend channel is.  It’s also when that S&P 2,500 level gets within spitting distance and THAT (for rounding) would be 12 percent lower than we are right now.

Again, asterisks – disclaimers – because we can be dead wrong.  The market could just as easily go delusional and rally like hell and we could get new all time highs before Turkey comes out of the oven.

Unfortunately, the cards do not support the optimism going forward that we had prior to election day.  The trends are turning.

The snooze media keep walking in the “same-old ruts.”  Technology has opened up so many new ways to look at the world.  We’re not using the resources we have.

News By Zip Code

20530-0001: US Dept. of Justice offices in D.C.

Protesters Around the Country Rally to Protect Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Investigation.

“Trump reviewing his answers to Mueller as he changes who oversees the Russia investigation.

87545-136287545-1362: Los Alamos National Lab

Los Alamos National Laboratory launches Efficient Mission Centric Computing Consortium.

20008Chinese Embassy, Washington D.C.

The Internet Is Splitting in Two Amid U.S. Dispute With China.”

20210:  US Dept. of Labor

Press release on Producer Prices is just out:

“The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.2 percent in September and declined 0.1 percent in August. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.9 percent for the 12 months ended in October.

In October, over 60 percent of the rise in final demand prices can be traced to a 0.7-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods moved up 0.6 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.2 percent in October after climbing 0.4 percent in September. For the 12 months ended in October, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.8 percent.”

Yes, one could say this :”sux-a-bunch.”

Did I mention the Dow is likely to open down around 150?

No more “news by zip code” but, you get the point, I hope.  If something is going on outside of Zip Codes you personally walk-around in, so what?  Not there’s much you can do about it.


Unless you’re Rachel Maddow and want to organize a whole country to march in order to bolster ratings.  Fine, we get that.  (See yesterday’s comments on the monetization of personality in lieu of news reporting._)

Such protests are about the stupidest thing possible – unless it is (as we totally grok)_ a ratings play.  Here are just a few reasons why its likely hype.:

  • Trump can fire whoever he wants.  He is what?  The President!  People serve at the President’s leisure.
  • Trump is NOT going to re-hire Jeff Sessions, so what’s this march crap aimed at?  Think maddow can “force feed Trump?”  AYFKM?
  • Congress is in lame duck – and they are out to lunch most of the time anyway…so again, what’s the point?  Besides ratings, lol.
  • And when the new clowns show up in January, what will be the point then?  The House can impeach 10-days a week to no end since the GOP owns the Senate.
  • Someone needs to think a little more and deeper…

I would like to believe these “street marches” are “spontaneous” and such.  But when it becomes a “ratings tool” we wonder about the sincerity of the promoters.

No:  We’ll stick to our guns on this:  Division in America is an Economic Function.  Maddow’s Marches are Monetization of her brand and her media.

Old-time capitalists (moi) look at the news a little differently.  We look at the Maddow marches very suspiciously.  After all, how did MSNBC do in their election coverage? Well, figures Ad Age in their TV Newser section, not bad!  “Last night represented MSNBC’s highest-rated midterm election coverage ever during 8 p.m. – 11 p.m. ET in both A25-54 and total viewers..”

As we have suggested, economics is everything and if MSNBC can make headway with elections, gambling that millions putting on their Doctor Martens and hitting the streets (though to no particular point) would be a fine ratings hype.

Perhaps.  But and howsome ever: We would love to live in a country where people are brighter than that and wouldn’t falal for such demagoguery, but this is a country of sheep…waiting to be sheered.

Maybe I’m just old and grouchy…or (and this is scary to consider) maybe we have a pretty good bead on things and the world really is verging on insane.

Tell me it ain’t so!

Moron the ‘morrow!

19 thoughts on “Markets: And Down We Go?”

  1. Well George, you can either let your blood pressure go through the roof, or remember when the pain goes deep enough, the knives come out !!

    ( now so George can read it )

    We3ll Geo0rge, you c@n either l3t your bl00d pressure g0 through the r00f, or rem3mber when the p@1n goe3s deep eno0ugh, the kni^es comnes oot !

  2. Absolutely on point this AM, George. Senate has the power, and was the target all along..hence POTUS claiming a great was! Sessions is the “stealth” bomber”, he can testify now.
    This current environment in which we all live is currently being saturated with Cosmic “energies” streaming in over and around our “minimized” Sun.
    Solar minimum is looking like and feeling like it is going to be a real bitch. Freezing temps, wicked winter storms…see the millions of trees lost to a winter storm in Italy earlier this week, local woolly worms/bear are blacker than usual. Winter is Coming,and so is FISA DECLAS !

  3. OT, but Zharkova is the only one to predict the current state of solar activity. Handling warming is far easier than trying to handle cooling – the ramifications for our offspring are tremendous. This is the full version:

    At a minimum, we are heading into a solar minimum (did I just type that?)

    It is now officially forecast as something more – a grand minimum.

    Glad our greenhouses are going in over these next few years. Glad we are in Texas as well…

    • not off topic,imho. john casey says 2016 was the warmest it’ll be for 400 years. it’s the blackest of swans that encompasses all of G’s work here. from hyperinflation to the trough war and nary a word…fmtt!

  4. George,
    If Broward County was a third world country,we would demand U.N. supervision of all elections

  5. More reasons to own a gun for self defense. When your older, you can’t beat up anyone, so you need an equalizer. Also, if there is a Big Foot kidnapping attempt.

    • You seem like a decent troll. How about real, actual democrat politicians actively using assassination language about YOUR president? Or antifa? Or violence against maga hat wearers?
      When the violence comes to the left, they’ll have earned it, and I’ll applaud the reckoning.

  6. More lies…or is he just plain dumb…
    1. When Trump was defending his choice of Matt Whitaker and the correct claims that Whitaker must get Senate Confirmation, Trumps argument was that Robert Mueller didn’t get Senate confirmation…Hmmmmm…Well Dumb Don, Mueller as a special counsel appointed by the AG office doesn’t need Senate confirmation…This was after he just told a previous reporter that she asked a really stupid question…then he gives a really stupid answer to another reporter.

    2. In a Fox News interview he stated that Matt Whitaker is a great guy and he knows Matt Whitaker…Today, knowing the scrutiny surrounding Whitaker, Trump claims he doesn’t know Matt Whitaker. ooops….But, this is what he does. This isn’t the first time. He contradicted himself. When askedquring the campaign if he knew Putin…he said no…after he gets elected, they are best friends…He then wavered on how involved his relationship was with Michael Cohen…He did know George Papadopolous, then he never met him…the list goes on
    The thing is…in most all of those cases, when he says that he doesn’t know someone…that does not bode well for that person…He is separating himself from any responsibility..This is what con men do. I give Whitaker two days before he is canned..

    3. He lied about his involvement in hush money Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal according to the Wall Street Journal..a normally conservative publication. He knew about it and was very involved in it.

    And this is just today…What is this lie number 10,439 or something like that?

    Now…About Whitaker and his involvement in that patent company. I have an uncle that was a hard working UAW worker and invented a auto related wearable that we all though was a good idea. He went to one of this same type of patent companies to pursue his dream of making money on his invention. To make a long story short, he spent $28,000 of his hard earned saving and all he received were fancy brochures and pamphlets. His case worker from that patent company said that they were shopping his invention to Ford, GM and Chrysler. Two years later, he had an attorney call the people that his case worker said they were speaking to and nobody had even heard of this guy and especially not his invention. My uncle was crushed…He never got his money back.

    Most…if not all of these patent companies are scams and Matt Whitaker was a spokesperson for a similar company touting his status as a former US Attorney. Of course, the FTC shut them down and ordered a $26 million dollar judgement on its owner.

    Anyone working in the capacity of a US attorney’s office knows that these fake patent companies are all scams. They prey on people like my uncle…a hard working blue collar worker who was just looking for a break.

    Sound familiar? Trumps real estate school, Trump University, did the same thing and Trump settled for a $25 million. So, birds of a feather do flock together…

    When are all of you going to realize that our POTUS is a scam artist of the worst kind…surrounding himself with other scam artists to cover the scam he is scamming us with. His administration is nothing but a Ponzi scheme of one lie after another to cover the all of the lies he he lies about, so he can lie some more. SAD.

    • “He lied about his involvement in hush money Stormy Daniels”

      I totally understand why he wouldn’t want to admit that he had sex with a lady like stormy. Its not only imbarassing to admit that you aren’t getting what you need at home. and yes if you aren’t getting enough food you may stop off at a fast food shop to eat..
      When it comes to hush money.. well there to.. if he had known it had to be a big crow to eat paying out that kind of money with a lady that definitely wouldn’t expect that sort of gifts from anyone else.

      the best action there I think is sure I know stormy and during a weak moment I swayed I hope my wife forgives me for my indiscretions.She of course seen one of the wealthiest men in the world and thought this could be a mutually beneficial arrangement. He can get what he doesn’t at home and I can get a very nice lifestyle handed to me on a plate. . unfortunately his representative didn’t think that way and tried to keep his name from being dragged though the mud of main stream media and in return his actions failed making it a main stream media scandalous story rather than a moment of human weakness..what are the old cliche’s “it isn’t what you know but who you Bl^%” and “Cash, gas or Azz no one rides the bus for free” and I personally know young ladies that have slept with the boss to get ahead, to secure their futures.. now amplify the wealth of the boss from a hundred thousand to a few billion.. I am pretty sure any lady he wanted would fall to their knees with pleasure.. take the anecdote of Lord Beaverbrook and a visiting Yankee actress. In a game of hypothetical questions, Beaverbrook asked the lady: ‘Would you live with a stranger if he paid you one million pounds?’ She said she would. ‘And if be paid you five pounds?’ The irate lady fumed: ‘Five pounds. What do you think I am?’ Beaverbrook replied: ‘We’ve already established that. Now we are trying to determine the degree.” This story is of course associated with Winston churchill and a bunch of others.. whether it is true or not doesn’t matter it is a common thing.

    • 1. Dumb, Mark, your professional jealousy of Mr. Trump is showing again.

      Whitaker must only get Senate confirmation if his appointment is permanent. The FVRA requires that ONE of its conditions be met, not all three. Instead of allowing yourself to be spoon-fed drivel by folks who’re much less-smart than Trump, why don’t you go to the source (S.2176, 105th Congress?)

      2. Whitaker has no chance, long-term. He favors reopening the myriad Hillary investigations and prosecuting her for her obvious legal transgressions, prosecuting all those at DOJ who conspired to keep her out of the clink, and he favors forcing Mueller to “put up or shut up” in his investigation. That said, it sure would be fun if he could stick around for a little while…

      3. He paid money in exchange for NDAs, a common, and legal practice. Daniels and McDougal are the lawbreakers, and should be both prosecuted and sued for violating the terms therein.

      The WSJ has not been a “Conservative publication” since Nixon was Prez.

      • Ray,
        Much less smart than Trump? HA! I don’t think there is a mutated amoeba that is dumber than this guy.
        Jealous? Of what? It sucks to have the name Trump…no matter what the year. He and his family have been vilified their entire career. They are a joke in their own home town of New York. Why? He is a fake and everyone knows it. One example…He is not a billionaire…thus, the reason he won’t release his taxes.

        As far as Whitaker. Trump has a pretty obvious tell…Whenever Trump says that he doesn’t know someone, when he really does…(Whitaker has made several trips to the White House), then he is parting ways with that person. Nice guy huh? How would you like to work for someone who only has his own back and nobody elses?

        Trump is a slime ball.

      • If they weren’t “dumber’n Trump,” they’d have read the FVRA instead of a HuffPost opinion or the Liberal, Cliff’s Notes at Wikipedia, before opining in front of a keyboard or mic.

        Jealous of the fact you’re both successful in the same biz, but Mr. Trump makes as much money in a few hours as you do in a year.

        Of course he’s been vilified. Trump is a construction worker from Queens, with money. He’s striven his entire life to gain acceptance with New York society, which will never happen, because his shirt color is painted-on, and is blue. Liberal pundits may run with different reasons, but the fact Trump is a commoner, and the pundits and entertainers consider themselves aristocracy, is the real reason.

        When Mr. Trump says he doesn’t “know” someone with whom he’s acquainted, it means: “I’ve met this person, I like what I see, but know nothing about him(her) other than what I’ve seen.”

        Do YOU run a comprehensive background check on everyone you meet, with whom you may eventually have a professional relationship? I certainly don’t. I take people at face value, until they display a reason for me to no-longer do so… ‘Makes for a much more relaxed, laid-back lifestyle.

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