Market Annual High Dates in Data

by

Early futures were pointing to a downer at the open this morning.  Not a major “falling out of bed” but after that pop up into the close Monday, a rebalancing before the jobs data (ADP) starts to pop tomorrow.

Over the Shoulder:  In Monday’s column, we called it “Week on Rails” and said “...we would not be surprised to see the market edge up during the early session today.”  Well, close enough, huh? A new Aggregate post November of 2021 high was notched.

What I was feeling (and this is never financial advice) is for “…then a day or two of downside as the markets MIGHT roll with “Sell the Rumor, Buy the News” as this is Jobs Week.” Almost obedient, the market futures are down – on rails.

Which Gets Us to Today

A couple of hours before the open, our Aggregate Index was telling us this:  We just put in a slightly higher high than a week ago last Thursday.  At this rate, the market wants to rally into the vicinity of the annual high.

Here are some significant (if not annual) dates from the past several years of annual highs in our Aggregate work:

  • 8/7/2017        20449.17
  • 8/29/2018     24855.07  +21.5%
  • 7/26/2019      25717.30  +3.4%
  • 9/2/2020       32253.54  +25.4%
  • 9/3/2021       41953.86   +30%
  • 8/16/2022     36696.69   -12.5%
  • 7/31/2023     39326.00*  +7.1% *(so far!)

This last is still open to change over the coming months.

Yes, we have one day earlier than this year’s “so far” date (2019).  But until we get a real “West kicked in the balls” moment, market confidence could continue higher.  The only number we can’t exceed without changing the long-term Aggregate wave count is the November 8, 2021, high: 41,953.86.

Thing is, do we have another thousand points of upside (and then some!) still left?  Time will inform us, I’m sure.

Chartification

(Is that a word?)

Here’s how the day laid out as of 4 AM (and what was I doing up?) futures:

Aggregate Index of Markets
This is based on 4 AM Futures but with an hour to go were still close.

Two personal remarks on how this points ahead.

First, going short too early (ignoring little details like the Annual Highs data, ahem…) can cost you thousands.  I even made the mistake for a few minutes Monday.  Looked like the market (early-mid) might start down earlier and the onbalance volume was down a goodly amount.  Looked like a sure thing.

But, as the commercials jammed it up at the close (in the final half-hour) my trade which looked good began falling.  I walked out with a whole, whopping short-term taxable $1.50.  Will that even get fries for lunch?  This is why I report on markets and don’t advise on them!

Second Ponder is more interesting:  

We all know markets are “moody” and act out (Elliott Middleton’s) “animal spirits.”

So, it occurs to me to ask, “Are market highs in any manner correlated to “Average National Weather?”

It is not nutty to ask.  Drudge today has the 31 days of 110F and higher in Phoenix.  Back in 2021, Forbes was wondering, too: Does Weather Affect The Stock Market? – Forbes Advisor.

Even more interesting?  In 2020 Bloomberg put some horsepower on the question:

“In a new white paper, (2020-Ure) the Bloomberg quant research team has taken a deeper look at trading based on weather conditions. The research leveraged bespoke snowfall exposure indexes built using two data sets: one containing the GPS locations of all retail stores in the U.S. and the other being a historical database of snowfall measurements in the U.S. maintained by Weather Source. This information was then used to evaluate the effect of significant snowstorms on retail operations, taking regional norms for precipitation into account.

Unless you love writing Python and data kraken hacken, seems there is a simple possible correlation for fall market declines.  Showing up in the October to December period.  It’s when summer has gone, the rain (and snow) has arrived.  And you think about pulling some dough out of the market to take a Sun Break in points south.

Notwithstanding, the average national average high temps on CONUS seem close-enough to the historical (aggregate market) averages to keep an eye on.

Fires & The Baltic See

Wildland firefighting, taught son G2, teaches people that you to be on the lookout for “ladder fuels.”  Those are places where brush is thick and dry, to the point where a fire can begin climbing into the foliage above.  A fire doing that is said to be crowning.

When I read the overnight dispatches from eastern Europe, that is what’s in my head. “Which one of these headlines has the potential to contain a ‘ladder fuel’ that expands the fighting dramatically?  And leaves the world working up into the ‘crowning phase’ where world war quickly follows?”

Seeing ahead this way, we sense potential in stories like It smells of gunpowder – Polish Prime Minister: “We expect an attack – Wagner moved forces to the Suwalki Corridor – We sent snipers”.  Reports are that Poland,, Lithuania, and Latvia have closed their borders with Kaliningrad and Belarus.

OK, maybe this is ladder fuel, too: Russia Accuses Ukraine of Second Drone Attack on Moscow Tower.

Looks to us like the West is trying to hold Ukraine peace talks without involving Russia.  Which causes us to admire Mexico’s “WTF?” on this, too: Mexico calls for Russia’s participation in Ukraine peace summit in Saudi Arabia. Yes sir, that-there is some south-of-the-border common sense. Otherwise, showpiece talks in Doha looks like a one boxer fight!  *Stupid*

Flipping Through the Flow

The Twittery X-Files continued Monday: The “X” sign was Removed from Twitter’s San Francisco HQ after Complaints from Citizens. We’d be pleased to display it here at our ranch in the outback.  Our spin on it would be to point it up toward, oh, Mars.  Give the planet a chance to prepare,

Meanwhile, you can tell that liberals are still worried about Musk. Because we keep seeing stories like Elon Musk Fires Back Amid Accusations Of Intimidation By Anti-Hate Speech Campaigners: ‘They Should Save Their Words…’.  We remain perplexed about this whole “anti-hate speech” thing.  The way we figure it, hate speech lets you more quickly figure out who the assholes and racists are.  Of course, being almost 75 I’m part of the sticks and stones generation.  (Speaking of Stones, Mic is 80 now? AYFKM?)

We wouldn’t underwrite this guy’s life insurance policy, if you know what I mean. Source: Ex-partner says Hunter Biden sold access ‘illusion’. Felony anyway and the plea deal sucks.  Where the F did Equality of Justice go? I haven’t seen this much bullshit since driving by a feed lot out west of Amarillo.

Sometimes we overlook Pottsylvania Pennsylvania in the weather talk. After a stormy July, ‘Dog Days’ of August take a benign turn in Philly says the Inquirer. Seems like everyone has their “weather story” this year.

106F under the broiler in the eTexas Outback Monday. Elaine’s taken to putting ice in the water for the feral cats.  Fortunately, these are wild outdoor cats.  But there are people who can’t shut a door on a cat.  Like 50+ cats found in Troy home – WNYT. A cool spell is due here: 105 today and tomorrow. Makes it hard to stay frosty.

Sez who? Department: Ron DeSantis’ War on Woke is Turning Off Republicans (newsweek.com).  Not any I know.  They think it’s a key issue and high time we get back to Equality in America and drop this “equity” scam.  Two wrongs only make a right if only one person is counting.

Around the Ranch:  OpSec

We’re adding a couple of additional solar-powered wi-fi Pan-tilt-zoom NV surveillance cameras on the network.  (Paranoid? Me?).  Happened to catch ’em on sale at Amazon.  A 46-percent off deal.

Night vision is OK on ’em and they wake us up on movement in their FOV. And backed up offsite….

Granted, there’s aways someone here, but some of us do sleep.

Great Survival story in the NY Post to read: Long Island swimmer swept out to sea treads water for 5 hours before boaters rescue him (nypost.com).  Also on your “Survive the Northeast” reading list: Father, daughter share story of survival after plane crash in Stow – Boston WHDH,

Future Change Note: Come the first of September (or thereabouts), we will begin publishing the daily columns over on the Peoplenomics.com site.  Ad-free for subscribers. Then we will dial back to one less day per week on the UrbanSurvival site.

Looking at the first of October (software issues notwithstanding) for making the weekly ChartPack downloadable .PDF of the anywhere from 10-15 charts twice a week, as well.

OK, hit and get. PMI at 9:45 may tickle the market, but for now the tension is over Ukraine and employment numbers.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

29 thoughts on “Market Annual High Dates in Data”

  1. “The “X” sign was Removed….”

    Can’t win really. If you were walking by Twitter HQ and that sign fell on your wife and killed her, would you sue the billionaire or blame Meta/Threads and keep walking?

    Signs do fall. The sign builders don’t care.

    “Two people have died and another was injured after a sign fell on a car at a Denny’s restaurant in Elizabethtown, Kentucky.”

    – 1/23/23

    “White Castle sign falls, crushes car in Bowling Green amid wind storm in Kentucky”

    – 3/3/23

    “Two out of four lanes are closed on NC 540 near Green Level West Road in Cary after a traffic sign fell down.”

    – 1 hour ago

    • Unless you can state which of the cited signs in your examples WERE inspected OR NOT, we have no reason to believe statistically that the X sign was any more than weasels waggling Musk.
      If they were ALL inspected it might point us toward truth. If none, another…

      • Inspections are a good question. Here is a local bridge crumbling in my area. I really don’t know if it’s ever been inspected. I grabbed the metadata.

        A possible clue is it looks like old concrete has been removed. But that’s not proof an official ‘official’ took the concrete.

        https://imgur.com/a/G3l2SFP

        Here’s what we know about the X sign.

        “Workers install lighting on an “X” sign atop the headquarters of the company formerly known as Twitter in San Francisco, July 28, 2023. Days after the unpermitted structure was installed, it was taken down after the city received complaints regarding its safety and illumination.”

        – 21 hours ago

    • If I were Elon, I’d be inclined to move X headquarters to a more business friendly state! Why try to avoid stepping in shit just to go to work? Why pay taxes to that place? Why endure mentally ill entitled people who insist on degrading neighborhoods and have no respect for others?

      SF is a dump, just like so many other cities run by political hacks playing race and building dept games. I visited Oakland in 2017 for an event and I couldn’t even drive down some streets because of tents set up in the middle of them. “People” were living in those things. I hope and pray that ABQ won’t ever get that bad. The only thing preventing it is that many folks are armed and vigilant when out and about. That, and most of the state, outside of a few cities, is deep red.

      • As would I. Still, even in conservative bastions like Alabama, Indiana, and Tennessee, every city of any size is a blue pimple in a sea of red.

        • No joke. There are in your face signs of conservatism and the values that go along with it everywhere I live in southern I.N., but head northward to Indy, Ft. Wayne, Lafayette and it’s like you’d stepped into the “Upside Down” from Stranger Things. The nearest large city to me is Evansville, IN, and in the past 10 years has become too expensive to live in, the streets are pothole filled, and the petty criminal activity skyrocketed. It’s known nationwide as “Stoplight City” and the major employment is hospital/doctor care. I suppose it’s because the city is typically chosen for fast food test marketing, and has a disproportional percentage of unhealthy citizens. They consistently vote blue despite it never have making it a better place to live. But step away from those hellholes, and everyone seems to be conservative types. Glad I escaped it when I did!

        • @silvermitt

          If you look, you’ll discover it is not the size of the town, but its proximity to a college.

          Oberlin, Ohio and N. Manchester, Indiana are tiny towns, but are socialist hellholes for anyone living there who’s not living in the gated development or on “mansion row.” The colleges they host are also amongst the most Leftist in the nation. Both schools offer extra credit to anyone in any of the “Liberal Studies” “curricula” who gets on the bus to ride to Chicago, Columbus, New York, D.C., or wherever, to protest.

          {Yes, when you see those thousands of protesters in that TV shot, these two colleges, and a thousand more just like them are where the protesters came from, and the signs they carry are printed for each “venue” by a couple dudes in the back of a box truck, armed with an H-P 53″ continuous-feed poster printer — and yes, also, I DO know participants.}

          One was in “Women’s Studies,” rarely went to class, and pulled straight “A” grades. After two years she switched to Business Admin because it occurred to her that she might want to actually be able to get a job. It still hasn’t registered with her (or the others I’ve known) that virtually every political protest or photo-op we see is carefully scripted, then play-acted for the cameras.

  2. Yo Hammy,

    Youse talking like one o dem slippery, coastal, city slickers..

    “OK, hit and get” is all hosed up.

    Cmon man – a proper southerner would say..Go on, Geet/Git!

    Youse bee south Mason Dixon, U bee Southern, Man. https://youtu.be/6GxWmSVv-cY
    “..Well I hope Neil Young will remember, Southern Man dont need him around anyhow.” -LynyrdSkynyrd

    No long E’ss pardner, its short and hard EET. At least thats how it sounds from several friends of the BCN who hail from Oklahoma..where the Men are Men, and the Weemen are Fine, so fine.

    “Go On – geet some bitcoinz, Son!” -BCN 2023

    • Just read an article on MW that the UST needs to sell $1 trillion next quarter but there might not be a demand for it…

  4. The cameras are nice. All the right features and wireless, solar powered, good price, BUT…
    What are the monthly fees to ‘Rent Your (Paranoid) Life’??

    I have a simple WYZE camera on the garage overlooking the gate and driveway entrance that has no ongoing charges, as long as I don’t enable any of the ‘features’ and alarm and remote storage and remote monitoring and… whatnot. But I can take a peep at the driveway on my phone app anytime.

  5. I apologize ahead of time if this has been posted already …

    but …

    Holy cow. In Illinois you can now put on a police officer’s uniform even if you’re NOT a U.S. Citizen. If you are authorized to work in the U.S. by the federal government you can be a police officer up there. With all the illegals I guess they need interpreters … ? Dim governor and a Dim state.

    Also Unilever is complying with Russian conscription for all of its employees working in Russia and I think you don’t have to be a Russian citizen.

    The Volt Typhoon virus discovered in Guam at the military facilities there has made the jump to civilian networks and in particular utilities and utilities serving nearby military bases. It also infects routers and Cisco has said that the virus is readying itself for something dangerous. M$oft discovered it back in May but it’s been in our systems since 2021. Hackers using the malware appear to be looking for documentation on how facilities work rather than money. They’re looking for infrastructure that would be targeted in a conflict.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-rtooUhFsg

    • Nope — you posted it first.

      Take away all law-abiding citizens’ guns, make it so only cops, foreign nationals, and combatants have guns, then ban the American cops from using theirs… What could go wrong?

      I swear, if I didn’t have to go through Illinois to get to Wisconsin and Missouri, I’d never pass through it again. Were I an Illini, I believe I’d try to get an initiative started, where Metro Chicago could become its own State. The State is 99.2% conservative, by land mass, and the residents are all so whipped they will meekly go along with anything Cook County and the crooked commie billionaire in the Governor’s Mansion decide.

      Unilever is one of few British companies which does not recognize our Russian boycott. They have a large Russian workforce and a large Russian presence. They also have an “under the table” agreement with the Duma that, while their employees won’t be exempted from conscription, they will be at the safer end of the lottery.

  6. “Looks to us like the West is trying to hold Ukraine peace talks without involving Russia. ”

    seriously..how many times has there been peace talks and plans and the usa and nato said no deal.
    I’ve been busy..phew in the wastelands the community needs to fix the city pool.. out of the total they were told they needed they raised 10,000.. not even a drop in the bucket to the final cost..well in two weeks they are going to have a breakfast in the park and donations for the park department..
    so I said if you don’t force me to spend a fortune to get a license I would be happy to set up the corn canon and corn flour extruder..the mayor called me and said absolutely they would love it..so all morning I have been getting it dug out..I forgot I got rid of the motor and platform for the extruder to mount on. then I set the dumb knife down..so I will get one made. Alzheimer’s kicked in big. time.. I do want to put a pressure relief valve on it..
    https://youtu.be/xkG_CxIttj8
    https://youtu.be/CXoXz9cwXEg

    as far as cameras we have cameras..a couple years ago there was white van all darker off windows. it had all the people paranoid.. everyone put them up..
    come to find out homeland was checking out all the local communities..I was told they were wasp vans

  11. Not a wild cat story but a man on my street just got arrested for killing and eating 100 or more stray dogs.

  12. Re: “Baltic See”
    feat. plot 11

    Folks,

    Lightning strikes twice? Apparently floors 10 and 21 of the iQ-quarter Tower 1 in plot 11 of the sprawling MIBC (Moscow International Business Center) were struck by Ukrainian drones. Fortunately the “Russia Brief” Telegram channel procured a paper document allegedly from the Russian digital ministry that had been thrown clear by one fiery blast onto the street. Miraculously page 83 recording Oct. 6, 2022 internal meetings was only lightly singed at the top after being neatly torn from its ring binding by the inferno. Happily the typed script was completely legible.

    The three tower iQ complex seems to have been a Russian 50% plus one share arrangement in conjunction with a minority partner company from the Netherlands. Interestingly the name of the latter’s Russian representative shows up in the Panama Papers index at least twice, once for Moscow and once for Baku. According to “Russia Beyond”, an RT associate, their Moscow address is on a revered street leading to the Kremlin named sometime after 1524 for a holy icon mission. Russia captured Smolensk along with access to its Byzantine icon of the Virgin and Child said to have been painted by Saint Luke.

    Meanwhile ABC News advises that the First Couple continue their vacation at the Beach House. It seems they elected to view the movie ‘Oppenheimer’ rather than ‘Barbie’.

    • It’s a little late for that. All of us hot heads out here have bought so much ammo and guns we can’t buy any more. Gun and ammo sales are down mainly for that reason.
      Storage is a big problem and with this heat you have to be careful where you store your stuff.

      The D.C. and most state capitol denizens haven’t cared a whit about what people think for a long time and now that they can swing elections any way, any time they want they care even less. They don’t have the brains to understand that the political infrastructure can collapse like a 100 year old bridge at rush hour because they’re as immune to prosecution above a certain pay grade and seem to have enough sycophants to do their bidding all the time. They have blinders on and can’t see the effects of their actions 6 months down the road. It’s brazen hubris. But Trump is a fighter, has the right to be so and will always assert that right. He’s done so ever since it became apparent the election was stolen.

  14. well.. Canadian Prepper knocked it out of the park again..
    https://youtu.be/kdULBLTDagk
    the OLIGARCHS, USA & NATO set themselves up.. dumbing down the youth..but where it really hit the fan was sending industry outside the USA for profits..
    by pushing the expansion of THEIR economic structure and neglecting our own.
    take the drive to do away with petroleum.. as just one example..look at how that would impact absolutely everything…you cannot have free energy at all.. we should be utilizing all forms of energy ( except nuclear I am not a fan ) but encourage change and incorporate those changes for a transition. I never worked less than two jobs.. with today’s job situation and having the experience where when the plant closed for the winter and anyone that has ever been unemployed will know that there isn’t any unemployment insurance available. unemployment insurance is only for temporary workers. and those so-called free money programs don’t exist. they exist but not for anyone that has working background. so I would always have two jobs at least that way then if one starts to falter you can step off onto the next one we need to do that in the United States. by Outsourcing all industry you and dumbing down the people all the experienced tool and die makers and industrialist they have lost that ability and by giving them everything they want and depending on somebody else so that others can make big money and impoverish the regular citizenship has only put us in a position where it won’t be long and will be begging China and Russia .

    • There are actually two “BLM movements.” There’s the one I (and others) deride, funded by Soros and probably USAID and a bunch of other socialist NGOs, but there’s also a “grass roots” movement (essentially a PAC) which spawned first, centered around concerns like the shithole “project housing” in Baltimore. This was the first, and was co-opted by Soros money via MoveOn and Open Society, and other tentacles of The Soros Group. Soros peeled off most of the more-violent and anarchistic elements and repackaged them as the BLM we’ve all come to know.

      The “Tea Party” was a grassroots effort, formed early in 2006, specifically as a protest group against the Bush Administration’s “rampant, out of control spending.” I know this for a fact, and have photographs [which were] taken at Tea Party rallies in Boston and Indianapolis, in June and July of 2006. If you listen to ANY conservative talker, they will date its formation to Rick Santelli’s rant on the floor of the CBT in 2009, and its purpose, to protest Obama’s “rampant, out of control spending.”

      Two different groups, bundled together by a news media that’s collectively too lazy and too stupid to identify the two groups separately or explain the differences between and betwixt.

      That’s also BLM.

      When you hear people like Hotep Jesus or Sonny Johnson talk about BLM, they’re usually referring to the grassroots group, unless the Soros group has done something vile to thrust itself into the daily news cycle. The grassroots group has good intentions, and very little money; the Soros group are hoodlums with bad intentions and virtually limitless money.

      There is no social issue so simple that a bad actor can’t futz it up…

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