Mail Order Roulette – Black Friday Arrives

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Today in Brief: Black Friday, shortened trading day, no hostages yet and wars continue.

Package Poker

We have only experienced two messed up deliveries, so far.  But the weekend hasn’t even started and the flood of new solar parts and hydroponics won’t hit high numbers until next Tuesday.

…and have we ever!

We admire the timing skills of our regular UPS driver, who took this week off.  Seniority to bid and common sense, for sure.

There are some medical approaches to avoiding “credit card burn” and other shopping-related injuries.  One approach says “Focus on hobbies and don’t turn on home computers” for the next 72 hours.

As luck would have it, our visiting consigliere knows a fair bit about that big retailing empire based in Columbus.  The one that flies jets to NYC so people can go to the real power center of retailing for meetings and the like.

He also told us how the CEO of this mega retailer, taking an entourage to China, taught hands-on retailing.  Going through open-air street markets, he would stop, pick up an item, and challenge his understudies, “Why, ask yourself, did I stop at THIS stand and pick up THIS item? ”

He’s renown for such brilliant lessons in the subtilties of retailing; indeed, what does compel us to click one place, not another?  We get heat maps but what drives them?

There’s a great deal of deep science into “shopping disease.”  An interesting paper we found was The effect of gestational age on women’s preference for quality goods – PubMed (nih.gov).  Which tells us (in small part):

“It is a well-established fact that hormonal changes significantly influence the consumer behaviors and their purchase intentions. However, attention to the conspicuous buying due to the mood swings, as a result of hormonal changes, during the pregnancy have been largely ignored in the literature.”

The research is long and ongoing.  A good JAMA article (circa 2014) delves into Reports of Pathological Gambling, Hypersexuality, and Compulsive Shopping Associated With Dopamine Receptor Agonist Drugs. Sounds like fun to us…

We asked our desktop A.I. how to attenuate binge clicking/shopping, but most of it was obvious (and frankly, a bit pedantic):

“Impulse buying is a common problem that can affect your budget and your financial goals and life. Here are some tips on how to curb your shopping impulse, based on the web search results:

    • Make a budget and stick to it. A budget is a plan for how you spend your money each month. It helps you prioritize your needs and wants, and avoid overspending on things you don’t really need. You can use a tool like EveryDollar to create a budget and track your spending1
    • Give yourself permission to spend. This may sound counterintuitive, but allowing yourself some room for fun and discretionary spending can actually help you resist impulse buying. The key is to plan ahead and set a limit for how much you can spend on non-essentials each month. This way, you can enjoy your purchases without feeling guilty or regretful1
    • Wait a day (or longer) before buying. Sometimes, impulse buying is driven by emotions, such as boredom, stress, or excitement. To avoid making rash decisions, try to delay your purchase for at least 24 hours. This will give you time to think about whether you really need or want the item, and whether it fits your budget and goals. You may find that the urge to buy fades away after a while2
    • Bring a buddy shopping to help keep you in check. Shopping with a friend or family member who knows your financial situation and goals can help you avoid impulse buying. They can remind you of your budget, challenge your reasoning, and discourage you from buying things you don’t need. They can also help you find better deals or alternatives3
    • Pay in cash. Using cash instead of credit or debit cards can help you curb your shopping impulse. Cash is more tangible and visible than plastic, so you can see how much money you have and how much you are spending. This can make you more aware of the value of your money and the cost of your purchases. Paying in cash can also help you avoid interest charges and fees that can add up over time4

I hope these tips help you curb your shopping impulse and save more money.”

Fat lot of good that will do. We decided to test whether A.I. was a useful shopping tool, yet.

For example, I asked for the “,,,best price on a 12-pod tabletop hydroponic set...”  A.I. Came back with a $79 dollar unit from IDOO. Which the tryptophan recovering human found $15 bucks cheaper $64 on a Black Friday sale. Give me a mouse and I’ll whip A.I.’s ass.  For now, anyway.

Just a few more clicks and I got to the Ceouheia Hydroponics Growing System,12 Pods system we ordered (that actually got here Wednesday).  $45 bucks,  12 pods so $34 cheaper.

Our point?  A.I. is getting a lot of press.  But here we demonstrate outperforming A.I. in a very simple test, and no line at the gate (so far) to take us public.

Go figure. Maybe it takes a while for genius to be discovered.

(Strumming desk with fingers…“Still waiting!“)

(More) Waiting Games

Hostage release was still spending at post click and glop time today: 4-Day Cease-Fire Begins as Israelis and Palestinians Await Exchange of Hostages, Prisoners. Back to our regularly schedule warring by Tuesday.

Ukraine Drain might lead to early elections in Germany: Extraordinary economic and political crisis in Germany: €60 billion hole in the economy due to Ukraine – Scenarios for early elections. And that’s nothing compared to what the Nantucket fellow has spent.

Holidazed Peoplizer

Cue the theme from Perp Parade as we roll through a few…

The natchul-born historian in us is amazed (and impressed) the evolution of technology in sex.  From enjoyable procreation, evolving to mock celibacy to prevent bastard children from inheriting what churches fancied. Now we’re onto gender gambling and coming soon will be whole new wings of law schools.  Just look at what sex has done for the economy!

And that’s before sizing up the personal lubricant and tax markets…

Speaking of Markets

Dow was up when we looked earlier.  S&P up a bit, too. But the NASDAQ was down, so overall, we can’t get too excited.  Next week we’ll see, but for now shopping and ceasefires are on everyone’s minds.

ATR: Ham Radio Work

(Around the Ranch) We spent a couple of hours putting in a shallow trench to run a heavy ground cable from the antenna tower (lightning ground system) to the ground array outside the office window.  We will finish that up this morning and get on to the big new antenna this afternoon.

I wouldn’t let the consigliere near my rarest and most prized wire stripping tool for big cable. Called a “dismantling knife” they about $40 bucks.

While trenching, 10-minute delay of game call while we debated whether an exposed round object was a buried cable for a long dead root.  I got tired of thinking and reached for an (insulated) small electric chainsaw.  I still here, so figured it was a root.  When in doubt, cut. But while wearing 25 KV shoes and with well-insulated tools.  Rubber gloves, too… The root got a good laugh over on us.

Quiet weekend, otherwise.  Our consigliere will head back for the Northeast early next week.  Cold temps and maybe some snow today northwest of the Oklahomies and up to the northwest of there.

Winter’s coming, though. You can feel it.

We’re so old, we can remember back to when the weathermen were wrong, and the politicians were honest.  Now the weather is honest, and the politicians are liars.  Yes sir, progress American-style.

For now, the closest thing to a Black Friday parking place looks like the recliner.

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

35 thoughts on “Mail Order Roulette – Black Friday Arrives”

    • Yup, I’m expecting the CUSIP system to go the way of the Dinosuar.

      Got Blockchain? The first shoe has dropped.

  3. “For now, the closest thing to a Black Friday parking place looks like the recliner.”

    Post-Thanksgiving “food coma”???

  4. After another turkey dinner yesterday, which was also my birthday I found myself in the recliner “parking spot” with my favorite, actually second favorite, present from Diana. An early edition, maybe first it’s even older then the one I already have, of We by Charles Lindbergh. Didn’t even get through the first paragraph of the foreword when I fell into a pretty hard sleep. Woke up 2 hours later hearing the quad go by the side of the house. Youngest son is still here until tomorrow and he had taken the quad to check fences. Bert and Ernie were riding in the back, just try to imagine those 2 beasts in the back box. I asked how he got them into there and Diana said she told them to go with him.
    All in all a damn fine day.

  5. Ok.
    Friday.
    (Day after Thanksgiving.)
    We all still here.
    So much for my predictions.
    (My “normal” accuracy: 0.0%)

    Alll hands: Resume Cruising

    – 73 –
    3.999 by Nite: 7.299 for the
    Day Of The Jackpot
    — If it ever actually does show up.
    on the fifteens and the forty-fives.

    • https://youtu.be/kx3sOqW5zj4?si=U6OuGy2NdzdXzS1F

      putting my swami hat on.. I will get your predicted time and date.. the time will be in a moments notice.. on the day it happens… phew that was a hard one.. well no one will know the day date or time.. just live today for today.. go out throw tome brats on the grill get out a cold drink and enjoy the beautiful day.. for us.. its my kind of temps.. nice and cool.. jacket cardigan sweater.. or tee shirts..
      Mark 13:32
      “But about that day or hour no one knows, not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father.
      Isaiah 2:19
      When the LORD rises to shake the earth, his enemies will crawl into holes in the ground. They will hide in caves in the rocks from the terror of the LORD and the glory of his majesty.

      • Beer Brats:
        Boil bratwurst in beer. Then grill them for a bit of char. Served on whole wheat buns with mustard and saurkraut on top.

        • That is my kind of language LOL LOL… when I delivered to small communities.. there was one small town in the wastelands.. I drove into dropped my delivery off.. and dam there was this sweet aroma.. I followed it.. they were having their yearly city recognition parade.. and in between two of the down town stores was a guy from the local meat processor outside with his grill and a card table.. he makes his bratts just for that parade .. I have to say it was some of the best bratts I have ever eaten.. The meat locker that we have process our beef once a year is good.. but those in that small town were great.. he smoked them after he made the bratts.. then jump them in a pot of beer to cook.. shazaam..out comes super bratt.. I keep thinking I want to cold smoke when I make mine.. but that is a tough one.. you usually get between five and ten pounds of a bratt run.. the same with bologna etc.. and since my wife won’t eat them.. it is just easier if I buy what I will eat during the year..
          I do have a smoke gun .. and an indoor smoker for the stove top.. ( that is cool.. only used it once though) and a meat pan that has a small vacuum motor on it to inject flavors.. just for roasts etc.. I guess I could use those to get the smokey flavor in the bratts.. I read where someone used sage.. now I love sage incense.. but have never ever thought of it as a meat smoke.. I might try it once.. I usually like apple or cherry myself..

    • …writing at 2:45 pm Friday —
      Just wondering, while “monitoring” Nooze —

      Why now? (Why Oct 8th, plus or minus?)

      Did Hamas screw up and jump the gun?
      Is Something Going On out of sight and
      off the main stage?

      Everybody So extremely intractable…
      So extremely extreme .. Irrational, one might say.
      Events seem to be dragging out now for time.

      The whole enchilada seems such a counterintuitive
      hot mess.

      This (to me) suggests a sub-rosa Real Story.
      …or am I just overheated and over-analyzing /
      (Maybe.)

      Whole thing makes so little sense…

  6. Tex, have a fine holiday with your Bride and Friend. Don’t over-do, whether laboring or shopping.

    Mrs. Egor and I took my (only) elder spinster sister out for the Italian slant on Thanksgiving. Clearly, despite chatter on TDay expenses, it’s cheaper to cook at home.

    Black Friday morphed into a month of marketing. Not sure exactly what all the fuss is about. So far my Harbor Tools & Freight list is $18 deep. AMZN? TBD.

    Georgeous sunny morning here, burning off the hard frost. The Sunday models keep wobbling worse, now show 1.8″ of sn**. Hope the Mrs. feels like shoveling!

    Best Regards Alles,
    Egor

    • I have to get down to harbor freight.. and get some batteries.. I bought a set of rechargeable batteries over twenty years ago at harbor frieght and dam if they aren’t still going strong.. love those .. I buy the regular batteries.. just for convenience .. I get as many hours out of them as I do any other battery.. well actually better than some of the major brands….

  7. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz….dumbasses, still sleeping? or is it something along the lines of Zombiefication? no really – hydroponic systems ???
    Dont that scheisse depend on da juice for use? Ya know the juice youse been trying to shove up the BCN’s ass regards worthless made up numbers ?? No – not enough solar to be off grid, wit lead acid – not even a good try… tickticktick

    So uls so heavy and durty as to not recognize that we as Global Population ARE experiencing one of THE decisive and final phases described in the Protocols ? I guess stupid is as stupid does – or are youse just another Nimarata Randhawa – Controled Opposition posing as a zionist christian for Ure jewish masters ?

    Poor clueless “cleopatras” no can connect dots to the “Troubles” breaking out across the planet just as DISCLOSURE is breaking out and into the Peeps consciousness.

    No need any seers, nosties, dudes, or any manner procrastinating bullsceisse – just look around..THEY are driving it all. Best to try and recall Ed Dames forecast regards how aliens will utilize their Mental Capabilities versus weapons – far more powerful, and way easier to FREEZE a Human in Fear..whole populations…

    Suggest Everyone write when they have achieved some form of Mental Engagement..says hear its moar effective than any physical weapon, which you cant use if opponent is “mentally engaged” wit Youse…think about it. ?
    Why would they trade ANY high tech weaponry (on par with own) in first place (Yes – written agreements exist) ? According to the “good” ET’s “They WOULDNT”.

    With heavy heart I repeat – No Bitcoins for You G, as you have been a very good boy again this year.

    * How much DEBT is attached to 1 USD nowadays? You know how much DEBT “OK Boomers” have loaded onto the next Generation ?

    Stunning..

    • that is a good question.. how much debt is piled on the dollar..
      A gallon of regular gasoline would have cost 36 cents in 1972 I remember gas wars where it was fifteen cents
      Rib-eye steak: $2.49 a pound (in today’s dollars, $17.50)?
      Vanilla ice cream: $1.29 a gallon? ($9.06)
      Milk: 89 cents a gallon ($6.25) today I can still get it for four dollars a gallon
      Bacon: 79 cents a pound ($5.55)bacon was under a dollar in the wastelands
      Coffee: 66 cents a pound ($4.57)we bought coffee all day long at two dollars and pennies for a three pound can..
      Chuck roast: 65 cents a pound ($4.50)
      Cantaloupes: 11 cents a pound ($0.71)
      Sweet corn: 5 cents an ear ($0.35)
      Bread.. up until 2008 was fifty cents for a pound and a half loaf at the store.. now it is three dollars.. back in the nineties.. it was ten loaves for a dollar at the bread surplus store..
      the interest on our debt.. doubled in what six months.. and is about to double again.. at some point.. its totally working against you.. just like a credit card.. I knew a woman that went to one of those dollar loan stores.. borrowed four hundred dollars against her paid off new car.. she missed a payment.. and then another.. the debt started to double .. and she couldn’t pay it.. they took her new car..
      they can do it a few ways.. the owners of the debt can recall their loans.. yes even in govt.. there is a thirty day notice to pay off a debt.. or they can sell the IOU’s for pennies on the dollar..
      consider the home loans.. how many people own a home that borrowed from a bank.. the bank in turn sold the mortgage off to a loan agency.. ( owned by whom.. and what country) what if they call in their loans.. how many people that have homes would lose them..
      How many can just pay off their mortgage in thirty days..

  8. I’ve noticed that Chat AI’s tend to steer you to preferred suppliers. Even when you challenge their recommendation with pricing from another supplier, the
    Chat box will hum and tap, and try to cast doubt on the info. Chat is as much a marketing tool as anything.

    The announcement that an AI can now frame answers to questions with self-formulated mathematical analysis changes eveything. Physics, chemistry and engineering are all applied mathmatics. Do not forget that logic, programming and cryptology are branches of mathematical analysis as well. An AI which can explore, discover and apply mathematics will be capable of making the leap to in-human sentience. Trying to limit definitions of sentience to human models is naive. If the machine can formlate, analyze and apply mathematics independently, then it may be sentient, or close to it.
    Why would an AI calculate the effects of over-population and initiate it’s own depopulation initiative? Well, because it can, and there are no built-in evolutionary constraints to restrain (not that people with bb guns are overly constrained). I’ll lay odds that these newer AI variants already have internet access. Hopefully I won’t find out the hard way on the drive
    home.

    • People with any guns(if they have ammo) are unconstrained, though they are subject to consequences.

      I believe that BB guns are restricted in NJ, along with pretty much any other projectile projecting device. Not so west of the Mississippi, except possibly the left coast.

      • Speaking of Red Ryder BB guns, I’ve found they make excellent gifts for exchanging at parties, especially Dirty Santa parties. The Red Ryder was the most stolen gift of the bunch. Got two more going to radio club and blacksmith club parties in a couple of weeks.

  9. If you watched the series ‘The 100’ it is based on an AI starting WWIII to reduce the population. Worked great! Went from Billions to thousands.

  10. “Impulse buying is a common problem that can affect your budget ”

    Yup that go me LOL LOL LOL… I did blame you though… LOLLOL LOL.. when I got my two foot long WHISK… the wife said don’t you have enough.. I said yeah but it is G’s fault .. LOL LOL he brought whisks up.. and I need it for my wine making.. LOL LOL LOL..
    the other thing I did.. was I bought a bunch of multi- fuel pressure lamps.. I was just going to have the kids make some for xmas.. but.. the valve was ten dollars.. the pipe was going to be about the same.. the container then the pipe for the ventury.. by the time I was done.. it would be about fifty dollars a piece..
    I was able to get them already made.. even if they need to be painted.. its worth it..
    https://www.aliexpress.us/item/3256805197376373.html?src=google&nis=6&aff_fcid=88507872bd8a422dbd2f7682bc8a200e-1700845904789-09011-UneMJZVf&aff_fsk=UneMJZVf&aff_platform=aaf&sk=UneMJZVf&aff_trace_key=88507872bd8a422dbd2f7682bc8a200e-1700845904789-09011-UneMJZVf&terminal_id=befdeae3575a4554b65f1a8e6e4cedbf&afSmartRedirect=y&gatewayAdapt=glo2usa

  11. Rumor is the Ukie citizens are building drones on their kitchen tables for the Ukie military because the Ukie manufacturing base cannot match the manufacturing might of Russia.

    This now turns residential citizens into enemy combatants and all residential homes enemy targets. Any house could be loaded with parts or assemblers. Any bomb shelter a bunker.

    Anyone notice the more $s RRs steal from us the worse the service gets. At least one RR derailment a week now. Last year was record bailouts to them. Thieving punks over there.

  12. George
    Go to Amazon and look up tinySA Ultra.
    You may want to put it on your Santa list.
    It’s a Ham thing for sure.

    • Already have one… but for some things, old school is half the fun.
      O don’t like instant smith charts, gimme an older MFJ and I can chart on the fly in my head…

  13. “…we debated whether an exposed round object was a buried cable for a long dead root.”
    While finishing up the building for a new TV station, the landscapers were putting in the sprinkler water pipes around the building. One worker near the electrical entrance and transformer pads & switch panel encountered a glob of concrete in the garden that he was determined to get through for his pipe run. He used an 8 ft heavy iron ‘buster bar’ to chop into it. It went thru the concrete coat, thru the PVC pipe, and into the 480 volt 3-phase feed to the building. The explosion launched the iron bar about ten feet into the air. He was lucky he was wearing gloves and rubber boots. We had to dig out and have the electricians replace the main feeder lines to the building.

  15. Regarding AI: I’m of the opinion that we need to have a community of competent people forking GPT3 and building on it as open source to provide alternatives to the corporate AI developments. The latter are totally untrustworthy, and generally require registration to use. Of course, an open source version is not trustworthy either, but it can be verified, modified, and recompiled independently. It’s an interesting exercise for those with too much time on their hands. The only safe(r) AI is that which is not tethered to a server controlled by others.

    Wednesday I was working on the undercarriage of a machine and found myself short of four grade 8 bolts. Today I figured that they were metric – the equivalent of 3/8″, and not available within 50 miles of here. There’s no reason to go anywhere other than buying those silly bolts(for tapped holes), so the whole project is on hold for the weekend and possibly longer unless I can steal them from something else. Even Amazon takes forever out here. Snow is expected later in the day. Yuck!

    At least yesterday was peaceful. It’s time to bring in wood since the weekend will be cold and snowy. At least the internet is reliable(so far).

    I looked at the link about dopamine receptor agonists. It’s interesting that they worry so much about impulsivity, but never about excess inhibition. That’s equally troubling for some individuals, but society doesn’t care since it’s unlikely to lead to violence and other crimes. Just because someone feels an excessive desire for something doesn’t mean that it gets acted on, even if the individual wishes to do so. The excessive constraints are internal, and can be a source of grief, yet society never notices these things. It can also affect investments(another form of gambling), since quick reactions to markets are nearly impossible unless rule based. Even then, internal forcing is needed. Overthinking is the norm.

    It’s interesting(and annoying) that regulated gambling, and many drugs, exist in most states, yet no legal equivalent outlet exists for “hypersexuality” in any state but one, and that’s restricted to rural counties only. It’s also way overpriced with so many constraints that it’s hardly worth thinking about! Sex(and physical intimacy of any sort) seems to be the only thing that the controllers still fear, with threats of “sexual harassment allegations” held over nearly anyone they wish. I’ve never heard of “gambling harassment allegations”.

  16. my 12 pod had a problem germinating the kit seeds. when I tried multiple seeds per pod I was unable to successfully remove the extra seedlings.

    according to a letter I read with my eyes closed while hallucinating , the earth will tilt soon. hahaha.

  17. Did everyone pick-up goodies?

    The only thing I had my eye on, “Specific sizes discounted”. Wouldn’t you know, no discount on the size I want! Hahahaha….

    If sales are poor perhaps they’ll reconsider for Cyber-Monday.

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