LW Ugly, OEB, and CFNAI

by

That small list – three items on today’s agenda – will cover more ground than the evening news will tonight.  The reason has to do with longitudinal versus latitudinal events in the art of “deriving future.”

A “longitudinal study” is one that (*easy to remember) takes play over a long period of time.  By its nature, “daily news” lacks important long-term contexts.  Which is really, too bad, since long-term contexts are critical.

A “latitudinal study” is what the news is.  Big, ostensibly wide, and covering a ton of “what’s nowness.” Take Covid reporting.  The reason the vax plan worked was millions of people were whipped up into fear (of dying) based on present-day numbers.  Latitudinal data, you see?  Today – even at this late stage – “the news” still doesn’t own up to puking on the important latitudinal data. Which is why media was, demonstrably we think, complicit in the maxination program, Even now, the legacy “bullshit label” (conspiracy theory) is broadly applied.  A scapegoat for the inability of “the news” to convey the cloth of any “Whole Truth.”

That’s also a variant of the mechanism that gets Tucker Carlson in trouble, as well.  The jury that jailed the cop in the George Floyd case was railroaded by media and social pressure into ignoring – in effect covering up – the autopsy data in the case. Imagine – a “murder” trial and no autopsy inspection or cross.  The new American way?  Or just, as we fear, just this Collapse Period’s take on Popular Delusions.

This may seem like an odd nit to pick on a Monday, but how we move forward into Future will depend on whether our “information surveys” in daily life are designed to merely look around the room, or whether a long-term view of human history should also inform us.

Longwave Ugly

We never proffer “financial advice.”  But we do review history when it comes to financial markets.  We also read a lot.

Though most of our readers know who Nicholas Kondratieff (also spelled Kondratiev) was, you may have never heard off him before.  A Russian economist, he was to tell Russian strongman Joseph Stalin, in about 1926 that a massive collapse and Depression would befall America shortly.  Stalin was thrilled.

Except, then Kondratieff explained that the United States would rise again from the ashes of finance and again be the dominant superpower in the world.  This didn’t go so well with the blackhearted Stalin.  Kondratieff spent the rest of his life in gulags.

All “normal” people (like us) need to know is that a long-term cycle of economic expansion and collapse was detailed in Kondratieff’s work. Which bears heavily on how the rest of this month is set to roll.

In Kondratiev’s Paper on the Notion of Economic Statics, Dynamics and Fluctuations, published in 1924, Kondratiev’s conclusions were as follows. 1. Prosperity years were most common in the capitalist economies during upswing periods. 2. Agriculture suffered more and long depressions than did industry during price downswings 3. Major technological innovations were conceived in downswing periods but were developed in upswing periods 4. Gold supply increased, and new markets were opened at the beginning of an upswing 5. The most extensive and devastating wars occurred during periods of an upswing[10](Mager, 1987, p. 27)”

In our modest work (with infinitely more details on my Peoplenomics.com subscriber site) looks at how “working people look at the metrics.”  There is some small, non-zero chance, that the K-Wave – which up until how had run 48-60 years, centering around 54-years, has been extended by manipulation of money. perceptions, and metrics.

You see, long-term inflation (which logically extends economic cycle length) had never been tried before.  A fellow named Ehor and I proposed an 83 to 85 year Currency Cycle.  This work proposed that countries naturally fall into “revolution and/or war” mode when their money becomes fully debt-saturated.

You can use the Fed’s own data to see how the K-Wave was jacked.  Because in 1913 (when the Fed was snuck into existence over the winter holidays) a steak dinner cost only a dollar.  Today, using Fed inflation confessions, the same meal will cost you $30.79.

Flipping the math over, we see the “purchasing power remaining in the “dollar” is but a mere 3.247 percent.  Revolutions occur (broadly and historically) when purchasing power drops under 3 1/2 to 4 percent.

Of course, Ehor and I were wrong on one critical point of logic in calculating debt saturation over time.  In classic ceteris paribus error, our concept was (and remains) solid.  We simply didn’t include manipulation of perception in ways that could change the public thinking, thus maintaining unfounded belief in the economic system as viable.  Several became apparent in retrospect. Our work was mono-modal.  In other words, we projected based on present conditions.

  • We did not include a “life span modal” calculation.  That is to say, if the currency regimen of a country is mostly stable over an economic lifespan, currency bases can be changed about every 50-70 years.  As, for example, the transition from Dollars to Federal Reserve Notes.
  • We did not model the arising of a perception of useful inflation.  Yet, if you have ever seen any of those house flipping TV shows, you know that the whole game is predicated on prices always going up over a long-enough period of time.  As bad as America’s $33 trillion in public debt (about twice that with interest) is, Japan is ahead of even us.
  • We did not model the lifespan extensions wrought by modern medicine.’
  • …and we did not envision (who could have in 2001?) a disease/bioweapon being loosed to reduce population.

The biggest financial crimes/manipulations in my lifetime were, then, in no particular order: Nixon ending convertibility of the Dollar and closing of the gold window.  The change from U.S. Dollars to Federal Reserve Notes.  And last, but not least, was the financial engineering to keep the economic system intact about as long as the average economic lifespan.  (The average “working life”)

The Waveform Tells All

By 2001, I had already begun work on how a meta index might be able to sort the wheat from the animal droppings.  Thus, when we use a “modern Index of Indices” we can with somel degree of confidence see how this conspiracy of normalcy worked out in practice. Look at the 1920’s Dow Jones data and how the waveform is similar to present times:

What we simply believe is that we are at (*extremely high) risk of continuing down the right side of the chart very much in keeping with the 1929 debacle.

Which, if we overlay things just so gives us this:

While the market was fixed, earlier, on continuing the selloff early today, even in the lead-in to the Great Depression there were many very short (and violent) countertrend price rallies.  Which meant that people were suckered in and then had their money taken when, due to fear, they couldn’t handle the risk.

This gets us to the second topic in today’s line up.

OEB – October Ends Badly

The four weeks ahead – beginning today – will reveal volumes about how this “rhyme on previous collapse” plays out. You should see what we are looking for, but with tensions rising globally, we may (due to mode changes) have squandered the equivalent of the period from 1929 to 1939 already.  This intervening period was use in a previous Great Depression to prepare for the next “War to End All Wars” (that didn’t).

Today, we may not have time.  Hence, we figure this to be the period of the Manufacturer’s Resource Wars.  Yes, which includes petroleum, natural gas, lithium, and the critical rare earth metals.

To see where this ore car is careening and about to fly off the tracks, consider today’s prospects:

Did you happen to catch, no media apologies as By blaming Israel for Gaza hospital blast, media spread misinformation. We’re beginning to think Hamas is doing more harm to liberals than the whole of the republican party has been able to. Can you be Jewish and not be a republican with all the dem’s pro Hamas support? Cheque.

Up north of there (1,288 miles north of Tel Aviv is Kiev, to be specific about it – about as from Seattle to San Diego):

Out in the WestPac:

Whether Xi will take Taiwan before all the US arms show up (next month?) or whether he will wait out Taiwanese elections in January and try to negotiate his way in, remains to be seen.

But even without a Taiwan war, could we see the Philippines engage? Philippines Says Coast Guard Ship and Supply Boat Rammed by Chinese Vessels at Disputed Shoal.  Again, if you’re not awake (and don’t see it yet) this is about resources as in Resource Wars.  Earth is on the ragged edge of the Petri dish.

Oh, look, says our Houston Bureau. Another chomp on the agar! Chevron to buy Hess Corp for $53 billion in second oil mega-merger in weeks.

While we wait, do we score another one for Wrong-Way Joe? US Chip Export Ban ‘Great News,’ Says Partner At Chinese Tech Investment Fund Who Foresees Boost For Domestic Ecosystem. Sanctions are a kind of economic irregular warfare, when you think about it. Send coats to Europe for the winter, while you’re at it.

On to CFNAI

Against a backdrop of a republican clown circus – which could shut down government if egos remain unchecked – we see the latest data out from the Chicago Fed as a very light weight on the scales of future.  But useful, nonetheless:

“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.02 in September from –0.22 in August. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from August, and two categories made positive contributions in September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to a neutral value in September from –0.14 in August.”

From here, we will be waiting for a good short-term rally to enter short after a (possible) low this morning.  But the rest of the month doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

Come to think of it, we’re 10-days out from a Fed rate hike [decision].

Clown Car

Line ’em up, boys!

And we push for a moment in the light of unbearable “hypeness” to read how BTC price nears 2023 highs — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week (cointelegraph.com) which is still less than half of the 2021 (Nov. 8) high. Don’t wake sleeping sheep, though.

Swear to God, some morning’s it’s like I’m writing curriculum for the Pied Piper School of Bullshit.

You know who the Dean of this school is, right? US will build ‘new world order’. His (democrat) Holiness says the “world has run out of steam.”  But in reality, no one is articulating worthy goals year.  So here on feedlot Earth the herd’s about to do stupid things.  You’re either seeing them start to move already or stand by to be trampled.

Around the Ranch: Radio Planning

Yes, the garlic-rosemary pork loin roast with gravy for Sunday dinner was perfect. Sometimes I miss my old “Sunday Gourmet” projects…

With the popup patio project nearing completion, the next biggie here will be rewiring the ham radio listening post in my office to something a little more useable.  Here’s next week’s antenna wiring plan:

Someone really into ham radio would notice that this is a four-layer equipment layout with multiple radios. Reflecting my tastes for Morse code, low power operations, and using tube type equipment when shooting the fat (“rag chewing”) on the low bands at night.

Second deck (down from top) only has a switched antenna to the Louden Boomer (linear amplifier) because everything else (SR-150/SX-117) normals through that amplifier.  Just as the SB-220 normals from one side to the other of the main (MFJ) antenna/radio six-by-six switching.

The chosen MFJ design allows for accessories between antenna and equipment sides.  For the amplifier, though, there is additional outboard RCA/phono switching of keying and ALC lines.

For the old radioman, this is cheaper than other hobbies, like restoring old Gull-wing’s. Hobbies are the cigars and brandy of life.

The latest Big Antenna project is coming along in the design phase, as well with the high wire antenna promising great results with no lossy tuners/baluns.  Which we will get to in November, if Life doesn’t light up between now and then.

Off to write more on The Parimutuel Investor for Peoplenomics subscribers Wednesday. No more “horsing around” until then.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net  (ac7x)

52 thoughts on “LW Ugly, OEB, and CFNAI”

  1. re: Citizen Cain
    feat. eastern longitudes

    Folks,

    Chinese msm has released exciting news this past weekend. The NSFC (National Natural Science Foundation of China) and the (Bill and Melinda) Gates Foundation have selected a lucky 7 of 29 entrants of proposals “aimed at improving regulatory effectiveness and strengthening vaccine development”. All seven winners are led by Chinese researchers! Each winner apparently will receive up to the equivalent of US$102,000 from the NSFC, and up to US$125,000 from the Gates Foundation.

    Da’s Kapital, Comrades!

  2. Yo Sunny G,

    way to simplify and obscure what the MAIN driver of all the bullscheisse.

    The Sun – G – eniuses. 172 years, “Like Clockwork” shit starts going Tits-Up.

    Cycles ? were talking cycles?!

    *no straight lines in Nature, all spinning spheres and waves.

    Suns output leads climate on Earth – which looks like a Sine Wave-Up and Down throughout World History/Time.
    The trend line on this “Chart” is Down to the right, currently in modern mini heat period, which ignites climate hysteria.

    Trend says its getting Cooler and Dryer.

    Dr Raymondo Wheeler(and team) in 60s did comprehensive study of all that – they identified 100,170,515, 1030 year climate cycles – they predicted extreme in 2000.
    Guess what – got it right on time, temps turn colder, 2007 was last turn.
    Mini ice age on da way, Jose.
    Greenland Ice core studies support doc Wheelers work. Temps turn colder every 172 years. When climate turns colder, EMPIRES start to decline/fail ..egypt/rome..just follow Ure nose, it always nose the flavor of Cycles wherever they may grow…think Financial collapse,bee hear now.

    ? Where youse all gonna go -if nukes start to glow in CONUS? inquiring minds..

  3. Sadly, the overwhelming majority of people get their news from MSM. There was a time when that was the only source of news and news was presented as news (where are you Walter Cronkite)?) and we were allowed to make our own decision about what the news meant. We could have civil debates with each other about the news. That is no longer true.

    News from MSM is now purpose driven biased propaganda. People tend to watch the news that reinforces their own personal bias. Debate is no longer possible as the other side is labelled as racist or worse and hatred permeates discussion. MSM is totally complicit in what is happening today. The MSM “breaking news” of an Israeli bomb destroying a Gaza hospital and killing 500 people is a perfect example. Some sources have not yet retracted the story even though the hospital is shown still standing.

    History seems no longer relevant to anyone under 30 years of age. Millions of them are taking to the streets in ignorant support of a cause they have no understanding of. They are driven by what propaganda they see on MSM or the latest Tiktok diatribe from people like AOC. When reading, writing and arithmetic are removed from the foundation of learning in primary school education here, what more can we expect? When “Jews are evil” is part of the core curriculum of primary education in Palestinian primary schools, what more can we expect?

    What is happening today is a cancer that has been created with our youth over many years. It is not retractable. There is no peaceful ending to what we are seeing today.

    • “ What is happening today is a cancer that has been created with our youth over many years. It is not retractable. There is no peaceful ending to what we are seeing today.”

      Blame that on the “Educators” of our youth. And then blame that, on all those who (blindly?) donated $$ to those institutions who hired and paid those educators. And blame that, on the government advising on what curriculum will be.

      Ego, status, prestige … etc.

      Meanwhile, people can’t or won’t pay their student loans, as if brainwashing is free.

      “ Millions of them are taking to the streets in ignorant support of a cause they have no understanding of.”

      Truth of how Israel was created …

      https://youtu.be/6foH3Zc82ZQ?si=3uUFzCNJ5NSlTA_t

      And those who have taken to the streets, know some or all of that … and yes, there are the blind followers who just see an injustice. Sometimes, people do side with the underdog.

      We’re in an incredibly huge power struggle, a change of paradigms. From what was, to what will be. Fact is, only the Universe knows what the outcome is. – The Universe has a way of making sense out of what seems senseless.

      Patience

    • “They do not love one another because they do not love themselves.”

      ? Kurt Vonnegut, Slaughterhouse-Five

    • I am sure you meant to add, what are they learning in Israeli Primary Schools about Palestinians to cause and continue racial hatred?

      Why does the Jewish Talmud refer to everyone, especially Christians, as goyim, and animals and only put on earth to serve the Jews?

      That’s part of the 2 sides, or other side that we aren’t debating or talking about.

      • Severe restrictions on those that reveal the teachings of the Talmud- Death penalty. Times change, Talmud does not – still boiling christ in vat/cauldron..hip, hip yahwew !

      • I really don’t know why the Talmud would impart something like that. I never read the book. Nor, have I attended a Jewish school. But I’m sure “Being Chosen” is indoctrinated very early in life, there … to the point it’s illegal to disagree.

        One of the greatest marketing tools, ever.

        Being raised Catholic, isn’t much different. I didn’t like that as a kid and still don’t cater to that way of thinking. So, many years ago, I realized that Anyone Conceived, was “Chosen by God”. I Noticed we each have Free Will, with which to make (choices) … to follow the groupthink or, to follow God. And I gotta tell ya, I’m an observer and not a groupie.

        I’ve read the prophecies in scriptures, and I believe (someone) overlooked those in their religious school teachings.

        And while we watch all the conflict presented to us, let us not overlook this …

        https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cyv9I1zuCLJ/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

        Stay alert

        • As a child, I was raised Lutheran. My playmates across the street were Catholic. For them, to miss going to church on Sunday was a sin. For me it was optional. For them… they could not eat meat on Fridays. For me… we ate what we pleased. (Friday ‘fish fry’ at the supper clubs were great, though.) Those childhood arguments led me on a lifetime path of seeking ‘What is the truth?’ in many disparate religions.

        • Hank, we’re on the same path – old Missouri Synod guy here. I do miss the reverence, seriousness of studying scripture (open mindedness came later) and, most of all, the guys – Bach, Beethoven, Mendelssohn, Brahms. Those guys were truly blessed and gifted by God.

      • they use slang terminology for dehumanizing.
        similarly you see nuns being spit upon and open discrimination.. both sides see the same area for religious reasons both sides feel wronged.. this is a situation that’s been going on for a very long time..
        some of this dispute actually goes all the way back to the time of Abraham.
        https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict

        this will get even worse now that they know that arms given to Ukraine are being used by hamas

  4. Every home (ham or other) radio listening post should include CB — because, love it hate it, CB is still VERY popular and ubiquitous. Remember, “relief comes on trucks” — and trucks usually have and use CB.

    Likewise for Family Radio. Good to have, particularly where neighbors are close enogh to hear.

    Best information will most likely come via ham 2-meter repeaters. Probably the most commonly-used ones right now will be busiest.

    7.299 LSB by day, 3.999 by nite. “15s & 45s”

    • All true, but for many of us, listening for random talk or even conversation is quite boring and very time consuming. For those who enjoy it, you have my blessings!

      • Too much effort. What I would recommend is tuning the lsb 3.65 to 4 mhz and listen for groups.
        The one I check in with is on 3806 mostd mornings. For Hank on the big island it’s the Hawaii net on the 7-7.3 band. The thing to listen for is a roundtable.
        Just Sunday morning I got a full education on quickly removing the esophagus of a fresh killed deer. Having not deer hunted, this was a useful addon to the scent glands advice on another early morning net.
        The am phone net is fun, too. Sometimes you just listen to what the chitchat is about and how people are thinking about things – usually good intel but it does take time. A radio on in the shop isn’t a bad thing when doing manual labor…

        • Hawaii has inter-island nets every morning, noon, and afternoon on 7.088… our own ‘private’ section of the 40 meter net since we are out here in the Pacific ocean. We can use SSB there and avoid the DX interference from the mainland. And one enterprising ham has created a website for us to log and share net information at: http://www.40meter.net
          This is where we go to share and maintain statewide information if TSHTF.

  6. Since this is a dreamy site I had a short lucid dream segment last week:

    At Christmas time, I saw Christmas trees all around town, they were 2-dimensional, made of separate flattish segments 2″ thick, like parts of a stained glass window.

    But, the individual segments and the whole tree had a definitely Arabic style/look to them. That is, all the Christmas trees, though in a Xmas tree shape, looked like backlighted Arabic art.

    I said to myself in the dream, “you’ve got to remember and tell people this

  9. Longwave…idea is varied but what if COVID outcomes hurt oldest first so the youngest win elections and mindset is not depression oriented (silent generation gone). Before COVID the idea was baby boomers gone in 2030 or so. Now with COVID likely much sooner (2024)???? electric currency and current runs as inflation to cover ‘basic income’ is free…no dollar reserve currency… Saudi sees it coming..

  11. Saturday evening I scored a VK8 (Australia) on 6 meters (50mHz). Sunday evening New Caledonia on 6 meters. [Gotta love grey-line AND trans-equatorial propagation] And this morning while on the local 2meter morning net I noticed 10 meters was open and I scored a Brazil contact… All done with a single IC-7300 radio on a Hexbeam. Just how many radios does one need?? :-)

    Your wiring diagram reminds me of some TV stations I’ve tried to maintain… weaving the new DTV in with the old legacy NTSC analog systems.

    Write when you achieve:
    One radio for each mode of operation on each band… each with a dedicated antenna.

  13. George,

    Do geopolitical events or peak debt/asset overproduction/asset over valuation  el.al. cause crashes?

    What caused the 2008 crash, a geopolitical event or the latter?
    In the fourth quarter of 2008 the US collective credit card debt peaked at  866 billion, leveraged by real estate, which was  overvalued and overproduced by  subprime, CDO, CLO, credit default swap, fraudulent appraisal collaboration  schemes, et. al. by overleveraged financial engineering giants like Lehman Brothers. 

    The collective credit card debt for the 2nd Q 2023 was 1,003 billion with 35% having possible APR’s of >29.9%. The largest 7957 Global corporations have a market  cap of 86.5 trillion, total liabilities of 203 trillion, and a total debt of 47 trillion. In the US the interest rate of commercial paper which finances a lot of US corporate debt and  averaged  0.11-.012 % in 2021 has averaged  5% in  2023 and is now at about 5.4.%. The US commercial real estate market, which is refinanced (and defaulted) on rollover debt is collapsing. If a purchasing group decides the real estate isn’t making money, it just gives the property back to the bank without penalty. Many medium size banks are about to receive nonperforming  properties, whch still have real estate and upkeep cost.

    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the two global corporations with the most debt having a total of 7.4 trillion.  Their stock values are currently worth only 8 percent of their 2008 peak.
    Currently, increasing sovereign government debt  sustains positive debt creation for corporations and the citizenry and keeps  the asset-debt system afloat. QT in the form of US fed funds rate increases and other sovereign interest rate increases  is necessary to control consumer price inflation that the preceding exorbitant QE created.

    Even with increasing governmental debt, higher fed fund rates as in 1929/2000/2007-2008 will cause asset valuations to decay. 
    With counterveing central bank  QT, the asset-debt system appears to self-order the growth and decay of  its asset valuations. The current monthly fractal pattern from the March 2020 low for equities appears to be 8/18/20/12-13 months :: x/2-2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x.

    On a four-hour unit fractal basis, a 8/18/20 month crash low will occur in the afternoon of  31 October 2023 with a lower low in Sept-Oct 2024.

    The 27 September 2023 Wilshire 4-hour unit 3-phase fractal decay series: 10/22/22 units

    0930 EST 27 September  to 1330 EST 3 October 10 units
    1330 EST 3 October  to 0930 EST 18 October       22 units
    0930 EST 18 October to 1330 EST 31 October      20 units

    At the close of today the 18-31 October series is 4/5 of 9/94-hour units. 

    • “What caused the 2008 crash, a geopolitical event or the latter?”

      Neither.

      What caused the debacle was the government. Between 1998 and 2006 they repeatedly relaxed the home loan qualification rules to permit poor PoC to qualify to purchase homes they could not afford. The “skin color” headcounters said there were too few PoC homeowners. The government jacked the rules, the banks (which took most of the heat) had no choice but to comply with government mandates. The result was the housing bubble and the ’08 crash.

  14. I think computers extended/changed the K-Wave.

    Back in the olden days, say 1960, even the smallest company had accountants, etc.

    “In March 1961, AmEx received its first computer, an IBM 7070-1401. The equipment enabled the company to switch from manual to automated systems for converting money orders and for its accounting and payroll applications. The mainframe was housed in a new American Express data processing center at 770 Broadway in New York City, which came to be known as the Eastern Regional Operations Center (EROC).”

    The 1961 AmEx data center.

    https://postalmuseum.si.edu/sites/default/files/mailing-industry-amex-1961_eroc-computer-room.jpg

    During the year 2022 American Express had a purchase volume of $1,030,000,000,000.00 ($1.03 trillion). How many 1961 folks would be needed to manually keep track of $1,000,000,000,000 in card volume? Today cloud-based ERP solution pricing starts at $75/mo per user.

  15. Rocket Stove… the last item on the survival list if the fuel supplies to the island go haywire. Not a lot of good wood here, but I’ll forage. Checking out eBay, this was the most ingenious and affordable one I found. George may want to check out how this was made, plasma cut from flat steel. It packs flat and the pieces slide together in a matter of seconds. Check out the video at the end. Ships free in a flat rate padded USPS envelope! One nice feature is the draft damper doors to regulate ‘the rocket’.
    https://www.ebay.com/itm/224295639495

    • I just gave one of these to my grand daughter.. had the chimney guy come out and with new codes.. couldn’t put it where I needed it.. rather than let it go to waste I called my grand daughter and her fiancee to see if they wanted it.. they did.. super nice.. super great heat..
      https://rocketheater.com/dustpan-brush/
      the nice thing is you can burn anything in it.. from shredded paper to corn stalks.. cobs coal or wood sticks.. I kept the multi fuel stove I already have and own..

      • Mine is just a small cooking stove… not a whole house heater. Last thing I need here in the tropics is a home heater!

    • For expedient rocket stoves, go to youtube and search on concrete block rocket stove!

      There are many variations of this, most commonly four 8″ blocks, varying from two to eight. Use grates from a scrap gas stove. These require no mortar and are laid up in a few seconds. Many/most of us have extra blocks sitting around the yard, and they can be bought for about $2.00 each at any box store. These designs burn small debris well and burn cleanly. They can provide heat and cooking facilities in a grid down situation, yet have no significant cost. Just watching a clip or two will embed the concept in your brain if ever needed. Even if you have no blocks, mud and stones can be used to fabricate something useful. Just be sure you have a way to light it, and be sure it’s in a safe location.

  16. George,
    On a four hour unit fractal basis, a 8/18/20 month crash low will occur in the afternoon of 31 October 2023 with a lower low in Sept-Oct 2024.

    27 September 2023 Wilshire 4-hour unit 3-phase fractal decay series 10/22/20 units (vice 10/22/22 units)
    0930 EST 27 September to 1330 EST 3 October 10 units
    1330 EST 3 October to 0930 EST 18 October 22 units
    0930 EST 18 October to 1330 EST 31 October 20 units

    At the close of today the 18-31 October series is 4/5 of 9/9
    4-hour units.

  17. “important long-term contexts.”

    Andy -> 1024.

    personal long term contexts,

    ive had more significant life altering events on that day than any other in my life.

    including. in 1988. it was the day i joined the military.
    the day i experianced 4 of my 12 NDE’s. most notabley NDE #9 where when i died, i saw a slide show of what my future life would be and was shown the exact day and place of my fianal mortal death.
    the day i bought my first and 4th houses.
    the day i met my real father when i was 15 years old, for the first time.
    the day i proposed to my first wife.
    the day i met my second wife.
    the day i joined the teamsters union.

    the day i very first hear of AA and went into my very first rehab in the VA hospital when i was 24.
    the day i joined the operaters union.

    among many other things.

    it wasnt an intentional thing. life changing stuff always happens on that date for me.

    hmm. didnt even realize tomorrow is 1024. im excited to see what tommorrow brings….

    long- >term contexts indeed.

    • 10/24
      “the day i proposed to my first wife.”
      “the day i met my second wife.”

      Maybe you’ll meet your third wife today?

        • Phew.. Andy I love your personality and your dedication to the… DUDE… you have a wandering soul.. you are where you need to be to inspire those that need inspiration and help those that do.. As for a long term relationship.. Maybe that isn’t where you should be.. she would have to have the same wandering spirit.. most ladies want someone with a more focused dedication to them.. god bless young man.. stay well feel the love of our heavenly father.. stay focussed on what you should be focussed on.. spreading the word of what our heavenly father truly wants.. not what they want..

  18. its also the day i discovered Urban Suvival on 10/24/ 2008. and the Web bots and Clif High.

    15 years ago tommorrow.

    we have covered quite a bit of ground since then.

    hmmmmmm.

    1024.
    or
    10^2

  20. Happy 15 years.

    when we met, I was a gaming agent. a casino regulator. a commissioned officer, with 7 point star badge in hand. bringing the hammer down on cheets and counterfeits.

    carrying a .45

    remember what I said back then. nothing loves ya like a 45. Trump is what? 45.

    alot is still in play, alot is still moving into position. so many lines of thought moving.

    the long term context… indeed.

    ~ I’ve just closed my eyes again
    Climbed aboard the dream weaver train
    Driver take away my worries of today
    And leave tomorrow behind ~

    Springs to the mind.

    a 15 year investment. much has changed. wonder what the return will be?

    que: ~ Dream Weaver

    https://youtu.be/McZYYe0kAtg?si=3_fy63dz2wEJ25Nh

    Gary Write

  21. p. s. dear choices.

    I am a righteous man. A Man of God. fluent in the way of the Holy Spirit.

    so, THE DUDE and I are on the same page.

    if you haven’t learned anything about me yet, you should know this by now,

    I never make mistakes. because even my mistakes work to THE DUDE advantage. I am very well calculated and precise in all that I do.

    my entire purpose for returning to this world is, after the Anti Christ rises to power, is to bind him in chains and cast him in the bottomless pit.

    why do you think not even death can hold me. lol.

    and the spirit of the Anti Christ is moving through this world as we speak.

    after all. Michael is my middle name.

    I’m at the top of the mountain fella. for a reason.

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