Suppose we have to begin with the employment numbers just out.
The official hypelines read like this: (Got your pom-poms and cheerleading clothes on?)
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Both total nonfarm employment and the unemployment
rate have returned to their February 2020 pre-pandemic levels.”
Bullshit lies! Seriously, I don’t know how they can mislead and misstate like this and get a pass from dimwit mainstream media. Here: Look at the data:
Ugly facts in their own data:
We are still below 2020 level: By 576,000 positions. And still – as well have been saying – under the 2019 year-end levels, too.
Now – the good news (such as it is) is that the ACTUAL NUMBER WORKING did increase in July. by 179,000.
The stock market was in a rally mindset until this came out. The Street is thinking that since jobs were stronger, the odds of another Fed hike is just about a cinch. And since we’re the only ones who seem to be able to read actual data lately, the logic chains look like this:
Job Up, Fed rates Up>>Borrowing Costs up>>Consumer spending down>>less slosh for the 1 percent.
But: ..More Jobs>> stronger dollar>> takes less dollars to buy market>> so market down.
See how logic chaining works?
Geppetto – got your calculator?
(See how their data table and our headline match closer than the Hype Release? We’re still mystified by misleading crap like “…have returned to their February 2020 pre-pandemic levels…” though.)
Let’s puff up not in the labor force a bit more. Then
make up estimate into existence some 309,000 new jobs over in the CES Birth Death Model. That’s gonna fly, right Geppetto?
In the wake of the Nancy Pelosi power-play in Taiwan, Chinese is just beginning to show how utterly pissed they are. A hint in China halts cooperation with US over climate and military issues after sending missiles over Taiwan island – live. And for the slow, more in Chinese missiles flew over Taiwan during drills: state media.
The real blowback from all this lobbing of missles is just starting to emerge as reaction: Analysis-Japanese Backing for Military Build-Up Likely to Rise After China’s Missiles.
Let me stitch-together a few more stories so you can get a real sense of where this is heading by fall. First, understand that Taiwan dominates the world’s supply of computer chips – no wonder the US is worried.
Next, pay attention to this little gem in the International Business Times: Exclusive: Italy, Intel Close To $5 Billion Deal For Chip Factory – Sources.
The reason a major chip plant in Europe is significant is that the world’s ONLY major semiconductor lithography maker is in Europe. That’s right: Dutch company ASML Holding began to creep into the resilience myth analysis in a 2021 NY Times story: The Tech Cold War’s ‘Most Complicated Machine’ That’s Out of China’s Reach.
See, in order to make a chip, you need to run a complex process of lithography getting the circuits and components onto silicon wafers. And that’s the rub. While taking down TSCM via a take0ver of Taiwan would put China in a leadership/ownership/”you’re at our mercy” role, the idea with the global frenzy to put up chip factories still has the Dutch technology Achille’s heel.
Which is already leaking out over at MacRumors. Let me connect the dots for you this way: New iMac With M2 Chip Seemingly Missing From Apple’s Plans – MacRumors. Probably because “Apple Supplier Pegatron Denies Reports of China Blocking Shipments – MacRumors.” And the checks in the mail.
The hard reality is that even adding shipping time to Taiwan chips (routing sea to China then air freight to the world – will put the CCP’s foot squarely on the neck of tech.
We’ll go deeper into the Chinese mindset in this dandy little opera on the Peoplenomics side tomorrow. Some things about China you may not realize are grinding now.
At the risk of ruining breakfast (*loogies is even worse), we note with concern that Joe Biden still had what the White House calls a “loose cough” during a “light workout” Thursday. Thus, we expect he will also test positive today – and because it keeps him out of the gaffe lights and away from teleprompters, no idea how long it could keep him isolated.
Quite a while by the tone of this report: White House: Biden to Remain in Isolation Until He Tests Negative for COVID.
We shall see.
Our Darkest Fear, Though…
…just keeps getting worse and worse for September. Can you imagine the “American shitstorm” if in September:
- Kamala Harris took over as president?
- At the same time Israel and Tehran light up over nuke-weps?
- While Ukraine is losing harder and faster as Russia ramps up?
- As Russia is seen sweeping across multiple countries driving west and cutting NATO in half?
- About the same time 100,000 North Korean soldiers could be sent to bolster Putin’s forces fighting Ukraine show up?
- Or, as NorKs begins to run hard military probes against the SK’s?
- At the same time another U.S. sub runs into an “undersea mountain” (Chinese undersea drone)?
- While China invades and puts the hammer down on TSCM chip exports?
- While more people are reported sick or dying of “long COVD”?
- While the monkeypox is cutting down the LBGT movement?
- While famine is developing due to fertilizer?
- And while real jobs in America enter collapse for multiple reasons?
- While all those military-aged males at the behest of foreign states begin an ongoing program of domestic terror in the U.S.?
What a fun month to look forward to, huh?
Off in lah-lah land, officials – in all their brilliance – have now categorized a Revolutionary era flag as a domestic terrorism indicator? Even now, mainstream media is looking for ways to chew up Marjorie Taylor Green for speaking truth to political hacks. Why? “Marjorie Taylor Greene Calls for FBI Purge Over Crackdown on Militia Logos.”
I mean, seriously? What the actual f*ck?
(n): 1 : a slovenly or boorish person.
Oh, look! A bitter Dick: Trump blasted by Dick Cheney as former vice president stars in his daughter’s latest ad.
Sounds like an attack on bachelor food to us: The top 5 worst foods that could SHORTEN your life expectancy.
Guess who’s an economist, now? Elon Musk predicts the US will have a ‘mild recession’ for 18 months. (Dude! Where’s my Starlink?)
What happened to Fall 2021? Early 2022? Am I being treated like Twitter?
Seriously: All the crap going on in the world, an off-planet web is a really good idea. Can we just move it along? Sheesh!
ATR: Speaking of Space
Since famine is coming, might as well check in on the Sun and solar cycles today. Which long-term looks like this:
Closer-in, it looks like this for the month just finished:
So – good news here – all those 3-watt $10 Chinese Morse code transceivers you’ve bought to put up a low baud survival network when it all blows up may be useful, after all. If you have batteries and some solar panels, that is.
Thinking about doing a book on how to do basic electronic repairs after EMP. Lot goes into it: Basic electronics, buying a good parts inventory while there is still (remnants) of a supply chain.
In fact, just in the past 24-hours, a selection of high speed and power diodes for power supplies came in. Get ’em while you can, I figure. Already have spare fuse assortments and capacitors.
Cheap component testers are a good thing to. For under $20 bucks you can get a basic meter that will tell you what kind of component and the value of it. Like this one. Toss in a basic voltmeter (or digital multi-meter -DMM) and now you have at least a fighting chance of making local repairs.
Course you’ll need a propane fired soldering iron (Dremel makes one for $37 bucks.)
Now all you need is a small gas engine, an old fan belt, some pullies and a used alternator to gin up a charging stations if you didn’t have the foresight to load up on solar panels in advance. Got gasoline?
Oh boy – all too grim. I think I’ll go play in the hobby shop for a while.
Write when you get rich, or the global insanity lifts,