Before we get into the nitus-gritus of the Jobs report from Uncle Fed, a short dissertation on what it all means is in order.
The short version? Normally, when the unemployment rate has hit historically low levels (check), and then begins to rise again (check), when the rate is 1/2 a percentage point higher than recent lows, a serious recession is usually expected.
The longer version? The critical armchair economics weasel-word is what? Normally. You can’t count times as “normal” when Donald Trump is sending troops to the border and governments of Mexico and points south are facilitating an actual invasion of America. Far from “normal.”
So when jefe Trump says he will slap tariffs on Mexican made/assembled products if the Mexicans don’t staunch the flood of illegals (which is what they are, all the bleeding-heart bullshit aside), he is probably not joking.
As we explained Thursday, however, the newly minted nortes streaming-in will cause a modest growth-spurt and that actually might moderate the coming collapse/crisis in the economy.
Even more important, since we are inside the 6-month window for the Indo-Pak war, what’s going on at the border (along with a possible closure/military action) may be a grand thing for the U.S.’s food supply.
[We (the U.S.) are playing referees in the pre-nuke foreplay here as Reuters reports ” US count shows no Pakistan F-16s shot down in Indian battle: report.“]
You see, closing things down with Mexico, while an inconvenience for Avocado fans, might influence more U.S. farmers to abandon planting of GMO commodity crops and get more acres into good old-fashioned row-cropping of fresh veggies. Which would mean more US avocado’s when the bushes start coming along. Not to mention a shorter 3,000-mile salad ride for ‘maters and whatever else goes in Ure vegetable soup.
Which will be important due to the global radiation that will begin wafting its way around the world late summer to early fall as the Indo-Pak nukewar lights up with anything-but organic mushrooms.
Oh yeah..fo’ show the shit is rolling towards us faster than imaginable. It’s not like we’re blowing smoke up your backdoor, either. Since in the past few days we’ve been noticing other deep thoughts like the “Prospect of a nuclear war ‘higher than it has been in generations …” and how it’s all about the “Dumbest Idea Ever: A ‘Small’ Nuclear War.”
And the Day’s Dirtiest Secret is?
Like I was telling you a few days ago: The closest we ever got to a global nuclear war was when Starfish Prime went off in July 1962 and blew out streetlights in Honolulu, 800-miles from the high-altitude EMP blast (of 1.4 megatons) went off.
The chain-reaction of this? Adherents to the pro-war (use it or lose it) of Gen. Curtis LeMay quickly went to then-president Kennedy and demanded the US go on the offense because for a short window, nuclear war was winnable. The Cuban Missile Crisis in October of ’62 was to be the excuse and it was (regardless of what pacifists would argue) a time when yes, the U.S. could have waged a nuclear war and “won.”
Since president Kennedy didn’t want the blood of nuke war on his hands, the U.S. intel community turned on Kennedy the following year and he was killed at Dealy Plaza up the road from us. The much more pliable president Johnson stepped in…and the whitewash in history has been really remarkably well-done.
Which relates to what?
Well, the Pakistanis are in a similar situation now: Pakistan is in many ways able to “win” a nuclear war with India, at least in terms of dueling body-counts. And that’s why, when it happens shortly on our 72-year war cycle, you can set an alarm for one-year later because that’s when Israel’s existential war is due.
Right now, Pakistan is working PR moves: Pakistan announces release of 360 Indian fishermen.
And that’s where the southern “invasion” from Mexico matters, as well as shutting down Mexico ag imports, because when the rads begin raining, we will want the US as self-supporting as possible.
It’s a death-dance of historical proportion which is both graceful and regrettable when viewed from the (placid, nearly self-sufficient) East Texas Outback.
Serious shit, huh?
But, besides outing the bald-faced lies about Trump from former U.S. intel chiefs, it tells us that a border conflict with Mexico is a three-fer.
- We get nudged towards internal food production. Control food, control people.
- Inbound immigration, just as the Muslim infiltration and out-sexing of Europe, will lead to momentary “growth” so Europe will fail first.
- And closed borders will remind globalist boards of defectors on which side their high-dispoable-income bread is buttered.
Times like this, I wish I could pass out small sample packs of AstroGlide, because there’s so much screwing of everyone going on, but that’s not in our budget.
The the good news is that the free press release from the Labor Department on Jobs is in the budget and that goes like this:
“The unemployment rate remained at 3.8 percent in March, and the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 6.2 million.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.6 percent), adult women (3.3 percent), teenagers (12.8 percent), Whites (3.4 percent), Blacks (6.7 percent), Asians (3.1 percent), and Hispanics (4.7 percent) showed little or no change in March. In March, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 1.3 million and accounted for 21.1 percent of the unemployed. ”
Now we tear-it-down because, well, it’s what we do:
- The number of people actually working was down 201,000 as shown on line 5 of this table.
- The rate – which is the side show trick played on stupid sheep – didn’t move because the workforce declined by 224,000 as shown on line 2 of Table A.
It’s a stupid proposition that almost a quarter million people “disappeared” but how many times have I warned you: “Percentages are for suckers”? RTFD (Read the frigging data!)
Even reporters and news operations get a Big Fail from us with idiotic headlines like “U.S. jobs growth rebounds…” When fewer people are working? WTF are these sheep steerer’s on? RTFD FCOL.
Our Aggregate Index is still 200 points shy of where it needs to hit in order for the rug to be pulled out and a report like this helps move markets up because sheep are dumb.
The labor participation (key) dropped one-tenth of a percent and 51,000 jobs “created” were “made-up” having been estimated into existence in the CES Birth-Death Model over here. Biggest growth? Leisure and hospitality hiring +37,000. Professional services and education combined were -22,000 in the estimates.
In Ure Shorts
Note to my son (George_the_Uber_Driver): Charlize Theron says she’s ‘shockingly’ single: ‘Somebody just needs to grow a pair and step up’.
OK, more tomorrow…with futures up almost 100, we’re pretty sure there’s no drug testing on Wall St….