What’s going on with the economy is so simple even an idiot can understand it.
And being one of those idiots, I can even explain it to you.
The long term interest rates have been sliding down since 1982.
As they have come down, stocks that pay even modest dividends have gone up. With me so far?
The interest rates are sliding again. And as they do, the big word Deflation has everyone scared spitless in the power chairs of economics.
Just this weekend, Italy’s economics minister was hand-wringing over how bad deflation would be.
Anyone outside of Italy has probably figured out that the deflation ship has sailed and Spain’s King abdicated this morning, leaving his 45-year old son to deal with financial problems of Spain (not to mention breakaway Catalonia where a separatist party is coming on strong). Get while the getting is good, is what it reads like at this end.
So this morning we turn our attention to Istanbul, Turkey, where Chicago Fed president Charles Evans is hinting the US Fed will not be in a terrible hurry to raise interest rates. In fact, while some of the worrywarts in the market have wondered if there might be an interest rate increase before 2014 is out, Evans is coming out and saying that we may not get an interest rate increase until 2016.
So this gets us to looking at my friend Robin Landry’s view of the markets. As an expert in Elliott Wave theory, Landry disagrees with those who have been saying “the Big One” is coming to get us any minute.
in fact, he’s looking at the S&P 1982 level and we might see a blow off which could take us up to the 2,200 level.
Over on the Peoplenomics side, our Trading Model seems to agree and with only a week or two of bearishness, it has remained consistently on the long side.
Barring a “flash war” or the planet being wiped out by an asteroid this week, the market futures look to open about even, to somewhat up today.
But if the unemployment number charade continues to work out, and as long as the shareholders and bondholders can sit back in relative safety – no doubt comforted by the wink-wink- nudge-nudge out of Istanbul from Evans this morning – there doesn’t seem to be anything worrisome about playing the long side of things for a while longer.
We should – at some point – run into x2=4py. That’s the parabolic blow-off top yet to come.
At some point, little people like you and me, won’t have much of anywhere to park our money. As that happens, a lot of people will be driven into stocks, since banks are subject to bail-ins and such. And then, as a result, with everyone “into the pool” the big investors will slide out at the next largest financial drowning in history will take place.
This week in Peoplenomics, we’ll look at the market breaks of the late 1900’s and into the 1920’s and lay some Kentucky windage on what might be out there.
The Baltic Dry index is down to 934 for a second day…maybe this parabolic isn’t baked in the cake just yet, but until a turn in rates is firmly in hand maybe the markets will hold.
More after this…
M-TH: Sleepy Hollow for Data
The headless economy won’t really be riding until late this week, though, so if you want to grab your favorite squeeze and “call in healthy” that’d be fine by us. Hell, I’ll even sign your permission slip, if you want. (Not that your boss would accept it, but I’ll sign damn near anything.)
The Institute of Supply Managers will release some data this morning.
Then there will be a construction spending report at mid morning. But since China’s markets are going Lazarus (e.g. rising from the dead) we won’t get too upside no matter what in that report.
Tomorrow we get factory orders, but the one to watch will be auto sales which so far have been the only market holding the US out of being in the deflation death spiral. Who would have thought “Cash for Clunkers” would be saving us five years later here after the market’s near-brush with collapse in 2009?
Just like it takes five years for a major change in petroleum prices to work and snake its way through the economy, I’ve got $10 bucks says there’s someone in the back room of the Fed running multi-agent simulations that got one hell of a bonus for getting that one right. It’s been showing in the data for a couple of years, yet seems no one (to speak of) in the financial press has been screaming about what a put on the recovery has been.
Now, we have to wonder if there isn’t some kind of “bulldozer plan for housing” as an economic stimulus for the next near death economic experience?
Back to point, ADP job numbers and a balance of trade report Wednesday,; so I may wake up for those. Challenger job cut report Thursday is good, too.
But the real number of the week will be the employment report on Friday. If the auto sales are weak and depending on how the balance of trade looks, we may get a few hints, but not enough to commit serious money to.
More than anything, we’ll just be twiddling our thumbs and looking at the TNX (10 year Treasuries) which are really the decider on whether the pigs ear economy can be turned into a silk purse for another month, or whether the whole McGillah will end up on the cutting room floor.
I’m betting on the silk purse for now, since Fed-pip Evans has let the cat out of the bag this morning. The Fed may talk tough, but they are not (contrary to what some media might think) complete idiots. They don’t want to crash the economy any more than any sane person would.
While the Fedsters are not complete idiots, the partial designation would be a much longer conversation, but we don’t have time for it.
You want to get out of bed and go get some papers to trade for precious metals. Because when the Big Turn comes, it will all be about navigating your life savings through the confiscatory gauntlet ahead. And it won’t matter whether your dough is in home equity, paper assets like stocks, or in banks.
In the short term? All sunshine and rainbows. Oh, wait! Aren’t rainbows parabolic, too?
Fighting Terror or “Let’s Make a Deal?”
Well, here we go again. The US has had a long-standing policy of not swapping terrorists for any American held hostage by foreigners. But that was blown out of the water this weekend with the Obamanistas pulled a 1 for 5 trade to bail out an American G.I. who was held by the Taliban.
We got one, they got five. And while that’s specifically against the rules passed by Congress, we should see this week how the Administration plays its cards to get out of any real consequences for (another runway action of) the imperial president.
So, let me see: We still have illegals being dumped in Arizona, VA is broke but off the front page, and now we’re giving in to terrorists in spite of law contrarywise. Jeez, what a mess!
Still, no reason for any of the administration behavior to change. Besides, if I mention it, I’m sure I’d be labeled a you-know-what… If there’s rational dissent, marginalize and roll on.
Power Plant Rules
Also in Washington comes word that the Obama administration plans to cap CO2 emissions from coal fired energy plants.
Wrapped up all pretty-like in climate change wrappings, this will completely sidestep congressoids who are becoming ever-more useless by the day.
In the meantime, look for the courts to get involved as legal action is sure to follow. Except, of course, we all know which branch gets to pick the federal, appeals, and Supremes, for their respective federal courts, do we not?
Hil’s New Book
Presidential wannabe Hillary is due out next week. and you can preorder it from Amazon which lists Hard Choices for $21-bucks.
Wait! $21 bucks, did I say? I find myself having a three-way argument in my head this morning: One thought is that any money spent on the book will end up in her pocket. “Screw that! Enough money has gone from my pockets into the Clintonistas already!” screams brain. “Don’t you remember what they did in office?”
The other voice more calmly counsels “Know the enemy – the new ‘Merican aristocracy – dude…read and learn….”
But the real debate is over whether she gives credit to the fellow who ghost wrote the book for her. Edward “Ted” Widmer.
Like many Clinton decisions, this one seems to be coming a little late than seems right. But it’s making headlines now and if that is symptomatic of her management style, it makes voting real easy. Real leaders reward the troops in the trenches.
About Widmer’s contribution? He might be worth reading because he wrote for the Harvard Lampoon, or have we been lampooned enough in this country? Or is that just too much rural Texas common sense for you, for one morning?
So how many words did Hil actually write all by herself? Maybe that will become my “deal point”? If you see the answer, let me know.
Or is that just another one of those really frigging obvious questions that no one in the national chosen-ones press corps will have the balls to ask? Is this a Hil book or a Widmer book? If she didn’t write 50%, we oughta get her name off the cover and lead with Widmer.
From each according to their ability, comrades….remember?