I Told You This Would Happen

A year or two back, our favorite bond trader down in Houston expressed skepticism at my explaining what would happen when the long wave economic low passed us by and why we would get a YUGE stock bubble.

What will happen when rates bottom,” I explained, “Will ne that money will come out of bonds (which will drop in value) and into stocks.”  I then went into a song & dance routine about how the money coming out of the bond market would pour into the stock market.  And, as soon  as enough money had gone into stocks, someone would enter the crowded theater and say the magic word:

Fire!

(Continues below if I stay awake that long)

 

Then we get the second crash of all-time.  We are seeing the headlines now.  demonstrating (look surprised, now) how Ure is right (as always) way before the herd.

Barron’s is asking Is Bond Market at a Moment of Truth?  Aw, come on, boys, it ain’t that hard!

Meanwhile, Gloomberg is whistling in the graveyard with “The Bond-Market Doomsday Is a Dud to Traders Eyeing Opportunity to Buy.

Again, it’s not that hard to figure.  I mean if I figured it out…can’t be that tough.

One of these days, my bond-trading friend will call and say it…”You know, Ure, you were right.  Money is flowing out of bonds a little bit and maybe it is where some of the market oomph is coming from.  But Bitcoin, too…”

Which would be exactly right.  Yet that will underscore another one of our mantras around here:  “The number of suckers and greater fools is not a bounded number.  The supply of them is essentially unlimited.”

Does that mean we will go higher?  Perhaps.  Topic this weekend on the Peoplenomics side is “Crash mechanics.”  But the concepts are simple:  Blow up one balloon (the bond market) and when it starts to make funny noises, take a bit of the air out of that one and blow up the balloon labeled Stocks.  Then, because institutional madness is real, too, blow up another called Bitcoin.  Make it counter-culture hep.  You can sell financial idiots anything.

My, ain’t it glorious?

Data-Day News

That would be International Trade in Goods – which tells us how bad the balance of trade deficit is.  Picture this:

Thrilling, huh?

Meantime, futures are up a bit…as we’re just waiting for someone else to see the future clearly.  We will watch the close in options tomorrow with the idea of spotting any NORKs buying ahead of a weekend nuke test…

My, ain’t we cheery today???

Global War 2023, Korea Sooner

One of my colleagues called the other day to lay out the future for me – and strangely, we don’t disagree on any of the major points.  He has a timing model, I use market dynamics.  Both of us a 20-year longwave commentators.

I will paraphrase because it’s too early to use the quote-thingy on the keyboard:

Is this a great country, or what?

All manipulations going badly and in the wake of LV we are NOT going to disarm.  Manipulated?

Because,  in case you didn’t notice, the LV Shooter hard drive is still missing AND remember Sandy Hook Shooter?  HIS hard drive was ruined, too.  Which, sorry, seems to us like an even-money bet as to whether both were that tech-savvy, or whether they had the same “training” at wet-work school?…know what I’m saying?

You’re not supposed to notice, though:  That’s thanks to the….

Distractions on the Alter of Public Sacrifice

As we have been telling you, expect The Network to start the in-house clean-up to contain the public getting onto the crooks in the shadows – the ones that pretend to “grant” us freedom…which, sorry boys, it ours from birth.

Who’s on the alter of public sacrifice just now?  OMG, what a list!!!

Starting with a former president who seems to lean…uh….Harvey-wise!

George H.W. Bush Says He Has Occasionally ‘Patted Women’s Rears’ Amid Groping Allegations.

Veteran Journalist Mark Halperin Apologizes After Sexual Harassment Claims.

See the “victim card” turned here:  Biden: Clinton was a ‘prisoner of history,’ ‘lacked joy’. Bullshit.  Get the orange suit.  Get Obama and Comey under oath on why the FBI promised to chip in on the anti-Trump dossier! Cover-up!!!

L.A. Police Arrest Las Vegas Shooter Stephen Paddock’s Brother for Possessing Child Porn.

Did he visit the BBC site perhaps?  With its In pictures: The evolution of women’s sportswear…

And let’s all make note of The most controversial bathroom in New York.

And the latest issuance from the Correctness Commissariat: as Mississippi eighth graders need permission slip signed before reading ‘To Kill a Mockingbird’.  FMTT.

Vaht kinda crap is dis?  You call diss reportink?  Get out, get out, whoever you are…

Totally Fox Unformed day.

I’m going to pay my property taxes today – while the money still works.

Mor’on the ‘morrow…

Comments

I Told You This Would Happen — 26 Comments

  1. We all know, have known for years, that the Clintons were guilty of numerous crimes, going back to the 80s, but never expected them to actually be prosecuted. What if Justice were actually served and they were convicted. We can’t actually put them in prison, as they would still have to have Secret Service protection. So, what if they were sentenced to House Arrest, just the two of them, alone, no staff. No cable or internet. Phones like real inmates. Secret Service just maintains outside security. No visitors except family and attorneys. And they have to pay for it all. Put in cameras like Big Brother and you’d have the hottest show on TV. Use ad revenues to pay towards national debt. Better stop before I get “Clintoned”.

  2. Had an oil change, seems they did not…now remember to check the oil..at the oul change..slander the company, or inunedo and rumor..????

    • Now im changing fuel filter, pcv, and what else.?..wondered why it started running oddly, likely air filter, too…had thought plug wires, plugs. cap, rotor, and tune…due at the date of that oil change and transmission filter and gasket and gasket seal..odd how so quickly needed rather than just scheduled …crappered…prove it
      .! Why i a fan off ” we cant let you watch, because we do not have insurance” establishments…suckers be warry.
      .
      ..

  3. Psst don’t look now but a lot of the electronic boards and special electronics that the USA uses in its fighting equiptment are made and programed in China. Hard to say what else they contain.

    • I would argue that being in a constant state of turmoil since Vietnam has made the ‘first decline vs second decline’ moot, as the author proposes that the mood of the population at the second decline turns particularly negative – what if it is conditioned to remain ‘negative’?

      I think that even at a ‘first decline’, a population is in a bad enough mood to become conditioned to ‘accept’ or at least ‘expect’ war – and since expectations drive results in many ways – a war is made . . .

      • George’s 2023 timeline could be close:

        1929 – 1942 or ’29 Crash to Pearl Harbor/WWII illustrates the ‘second decline’ theory. Parallels to WWII already happening now, Russia annexation/invasions, Catalonia splitting from Spain…internal wars:

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Civil_War

  4. George, recall that I read you daily. You’ve been calling for the Mother of All Crashes now for over 8 years.

    Switching topics, we made it past nukes with Pakistan, China, Russia, etc. What needs to be so different this time with N. Korea, — excepting maybe that we have an unskilled, insecure rookie in charge of our nuke codes? Hoping those tax cuts and deficit increases are worth all the drama, Mike.

  5. Not manipulated George just endless propaganda, for if they ever told the American people the truth incidents like Waco and Ruby Ridge would be commonplace, lol perhaps a twin to China in respect to human rights

  6. Every time someone paints a picture of the future, they start with the current madness and project out the “probable” outcomes. I, for one, have been feeling the pressure from Universe concerning real bad news for our future since the 80’s. Timing is the real problem. When someone gets that right, then you have something. I grew up in the “Duck and Cover” generation. We made it past the Y2K madness. Many of us are tired of the “Prophets” crying wolf. Which is why we have so much inaction in the face of the coming madness. It definitely will come as a “Thief in the night”. Prepare for the worst. Expect the worst. Pray for the best.

    • “Prepare for the worst. ”

      Cannibalism is probably the worst. Keeping that first bite of protein down.

      As cited above, 90% of all Americans could be killed after an EMP. Does this mean a zero-sum approach is best?

      If yes, the question is how to react to an EMP. If all the lights go out, should the immediate response be to take over the subdivision and collect any canned food? Or do you ‘wait it out’ while the neighbors consume resources…. and in the end starve with them becasue of inaction.

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  7. While researching the book “Deep Work”, I ran across this book & ended up buying it. “The Power of Now”. In a very simple manner it reprograms the mind to eliminate those little destructive thoughts that haunt & hinder our progress & productivity.

    https://www.amazon.com/Power-Now-Guide-Spiritual-Enlightenment/dp/1577314808/ref=redir_mobile_desktop?_encoding=UTF8&keywords=the%20power%20of%20now&pi=AC_SX236_SY340_FMwebp_QL65&qid=1509025173&ref_=mp_s_a_1_1&sr=8-1

  8. George, the ‘Global War 2023’ timing model is plausible. I see the ‘Norks’ (I like that tag) as pawns to mainland China. Kim cannot act against the ’round eyes’ unless Xi has his back. My primary addition to the 2023 model would be China edging Kim to attack Seoul and the allied bases near the DMZ with heavy conventional artillery and rockets. As this strike kicks off, China will simultaneously paralyze the global internet and initiate a series of commercial and military satellite attacks. Shortly after (or perhaps during) the internet/satellite operation, Xi will begin annexing Taiwan with a massive air/land/sea military operation. The Norks will simultaneously lob a few missiles at Japan and Guam to stress America, with the threat of an EMP over N. America publicly stated (which, if it eventually happens, may actually be from the Chinese, not Norks, because it is ALREAD in orbit). This will draw a combined and coordinated U.S., Japanese and Australian response in the S. China Sea and Sea of Japan. S. Pacific air and sea commercial transportation will grind to a halt. Economic pressure will build on China, which will begin to show signs of civil unrest in the industrial southern belly area. India and Pakistan, seeing an opportunity to settle the score over Kashmir, will begin a deadly dance that could well end in a limited nuke exchange. The globe will start to unzip as Iran and Israel posture for intensified proxy conflict leading to outright regional war. Putin will quietly move into the Ukraine and Poland, park his tanks and go ride bareback at one of his new dachas.

    • I just love your answers..
      I use to know someone in special forces and you could usually tell when something was about to happen.. they would get a long leave just before being deployed.. and most of the actions usually started just before a major holiday..
      unfortunately I no longer know anyone in special forces..

    • I think there is way more than just china watching and waiting in the background at how we will react.
      they do know that they are the major manufacturers of our strategic arms and most of our military and consumer goods.
      they also know that we are stressed financially and that the mainstream worker can’t afford any more.
      the old adage of divide and conquer comes to mind all the while we have a congress that cannot even stay at work long enough to decide what kind of paper should be in the toilets. angel soft or Charmin Scott tissue.