A year or two back, our favorite bond trader down in Houston expressed skepticism at my explaining what would happen when the long wave economic low passed us by and why we would get a YUGE stock bubble.
“What will happen when rates bottom,” I explained, “Will ne that money will come out of bonds (which will drop in value) and into stocks.” I then went into a song & dance routine about how the money coming out of the bond market would pour into the stock market. And, as soon as enough money had gone into stocks, someone would enter the crowded theater and say the magic word:
(Continues below if I stay awake that long)
Then we get the second crash of all-time. We are seeing the headlines now. demonstrating (look surprised, now) how Ure is right (as always) way before the herd.
Barron’s is asking Is Bond Market at a Moment of Truth? Aw, come on, boys, it ain’t that hard!
Meanwhile, Gloomberg is whistling in the graveyard with “The Bond-Market Doomsday Is a Dud to Traders Eyeing Opportunity to Buy.”
Again, it’s not that hard to figure. I mean if I figured it out…can’t be that tough.
One of these days, my bond-trading friend will call and say it…”You know, Ure, you were right. Money is flowing out of bonds a little bit and maybe it is where some of the market oomph is coming from. But Bitcoin, too…”
Which would be exactly right. Yet that will underscore another one of our mantras around here: “The number of suckers and greater fools is not a bounded number. The supply of them is essentially unlimited.”
Does that mean we will go higher? Perhaps. Topic this weekend on the Peoplenomics side is “Crash mechanics.” But the concepts are simple: Blow up one balloon (the bond market) and when it starts to make funny noises, take a bit of the air out of that one and blow up the balloon labeled Stocks. Then, because institutional madness is real, too, blow up another called Bitcoin. Make it counter-culture hep. You can sell financial idiots anything.
My, ain’t it glorious?
That would be International Trade in Goods – which tells us how bad the balance of trade deficit is. Picture this:
Meantime, futures are up a bit…as we’re just waiting for someone else to see the future clearly. We will watch the close in options tomorrow with the idea of spotting any NORKs buying ahead of a weekend nuke test…
My, ain’t we cheery today???
Global War 2023, Korea Sooner
One of my colleagues called the other day to lay out the future for me – and strangely, we don’t disagree on any of the major points. He has a timing model, I use market dynamics. Both of us a 20-year longwave commentators.
I will paraphrase because it’s too early to use the quote-thingy on the keyboard:
- The Norks are likely to do an air blast of a hydrogen bomb.
- This will result in an attack on the Norks. Fallout not welcome here.
- But they have so much tunnel infrastructure that they may be able to launch two (or three) space-based weapons. We know they have lift because their satellites KMS-3 and KMS-4 are already overhead.
- They will then retaliate with a massive EMP attack on America –
- The latest expert estimates are that 90% of America dead may not be a bad guess…as the domestic EMP specialists continue to sound the alarm about do-nothings. You know them as idiots, and you can find their names at senate.gov and house.gov.
- This would end the Second Great Depression, though, because there would be no reliable records…so all those savings and such? Digital crap? Poof! You’re debt free…and gang fodder at that point.
- The Chinese, meantime, are busily walking in the ruts laid down by Hitler 33/34 and the party consolidation lately can be viewed as the Sino-version of the Night of Long Knives. Remember Xi Jinping jailing opposition members? Operation Hummingbird, redux. China lawyer recounts torture under Xi’s ‘war on law’.
- But The Network (the British-American Establishment) juss luvs their boy Xi as reflected in Fears that Xi Jinping is bad for private enterprise are overblown. Ask his victims…their accounts may not agree.
- This means just as Hitler ran a few warm-up wars, we should expect the Chinese to let loose the Norks soonish.
- Taiwan sees it just like we do. This explains Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen Calls for a Breakthrough in Relations with China. Shot clock is running.
- The US attack in retaliation will give Chinese leadership a “mandate” for an arms race – and they will launch on what Hitler did… Taiwan 2023!
- Which leaves me with the embarrassing problem of telling all our relatives to be out of Seattle by 2022 (since it has shipyard and tech components).
- Even if the NORKs can’t figure a re-entry vehicle (and you don’t think Pakistan would help? Or Iran? Sheesh!) the H-Bomb EMP approach in space will work dandy-badly.
- Meantime, rather than hunt down ISIS and NK agents, we are less than amazed to see the US turning to surveillance of American “domestic extremists” and oh, yeah, granting itself the “necessary” power to steal from people via civil asset forfeiture laws.
Is this a great country, or what?
All manipulations going badly and in the wake of LV we are NOT going to disarm. Manipulated?
Because, in case you didn’t notice, the LV Shooter hard drive is still missing AND remember Sandy Hook Shooter? HIS hard drive was ruined, too. Which, sorry, seems to us like an even-money bet as to whether both were that tech-savvy, or whether they had the same “training” at wet-work school?…know what I’m saying?
You’re not supposed to notice, though: That’s thanks to the….
Distractions on the Alter of Public Sacrifice
As we have been telling you, expect The Network to start the in-house clean-up to contain the public getting onto the crooks in the shadows – the ones that pretend to “grant” us freedom…which, sorry boys, it ours from birth.
Who’s on the alter of public sacrifice just now? OMG, what a list!!!
Starting with a former president who seems to lean…uh….Harvey-wise!
See the “victim card” turned here: Biden: Clinton was a ‘prisoner of history,’ ‘lacked joy’. Bullshit. Get the orange suit. Get Obama and Comey under oath on why the FBI promised to chip in on the anti-Trump dossier! Cover-up!!!
Did he visit the BBC site perhaps? With its In pictures: The evolution of women’s sportswear…
And let’s all make note of The most controversial bathroom in New York.
And the latest issuance from the Correctness Commissariat: as Mississippi eighth graders need permission slip signed before reading ‘To Kill a Mockingbird’. FMTT.
Vaht kinda crap is dis? You call diss reportink? Get out, get out, whoever you are…
Totally Fox Unformed day.
I’m going to pay my property taxes today – while the money still works.
Mor’on the ‘morrow…