If we want something to “Memorialize” this coming weekend, buddy do we have the shiznit for ya’ll. America hasn’t just lost it to China in major industrial categories (shipbuilding comes to mind) but the “rest of world” is kicking our “short of vacation” butts.
U.S. Baseline: The U.S. has no federal mandate for paid vacation or public holidays. The average PTO (personal time off) is estimated at 10–15 days (10 vacation days after 1 year, increasing with tenure, plus some employer-provided holidays).
No, friend, the place you want to work is either Kuwait (43 paid days off per year) or (OMG) Russia!!! Why those rotten-bad-nasty commies are getting a national minimum of 24 vacation days plus 8 federal holidays. None of which counts weekends! And we’re demonizing them?
And why have US workers “busted-hump” to fund NATO? When All EU member states mandate at least 20 paid vacation days, often supplemented by public holidays, making most European countries rank above the U.S…
Back on script: Today we explore the earlier times in ‘Merica – back in the Land of the Free days – when we invented the Autocamping category in the 1920s..
But first, is Inflation going to Save us?
And saving the worst for last? Our ChartPack this morning is the most dire I have written in more than 20-years.
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re: “Real IDs in the Pulpit”
feat: “The Canterbury Tales”, 1400
Folks,
Oh, the irony of modern day campers motoring past gauntlets of underhoused suburban tent cities enroute to fairer pastures in the countryside for pitching of canvas. Victoria Day, Spring Bank Holiday, and Memorial Day lurk around the corner.
Yesterday a Romanian UK holidaymaker looking for a headstart on the travel rush was detained prior to undertaking one way travel to Romania. A judge had ‘burning man’ questions for him regarding three recent alleged arsons against property connected with the UK PM. It seems the suspect, newly graduated from Canterbury Christ Church University, required an English translator at Westminster Court.
The motto of the university translates as “the truth shall set you free”. Its crest includes a black crow-like Cornwall Chough bird perhaps as a nod to St. Thomas Becket, patron saint of Canterbury Cathedral and London.
With the young Romanian suspect now in custody for the case to go along with a pair of Ukrainian nationals, let’s segue to DJ George to raise spirits with a top #10 jilted lovers’ hit from the Fab Four. Released on the “Revolver” album in the UK and “Yesterday and Today” in the USA, here we go –
“And Your Bird Can Sing”.
Some true in today’s world, Jester. Make me want to grab my “Revolver” and well to…um… but not in Canada, mind you!
Your Georgeness : today I write a few snippets, to contribute to the conversation. None is advice, not financial, legal, salvation, exhortation, or otherwise [this stands through all Egor posts for perpetuity].
Moodys : the downgrade was deserved but they didn’t lead the pack. They were last of the major “ratings” orgs to cave, buckle, call a spade a spade (forgive the card repeater, we hosted four couple Euchre last eve). None of those majors can claim clean hands, the position(s) have been tainted for eons. There is nothing so stale as Yesterday’s news.
“… If you hadn’t noticed, there is a lot of this ‘magical thinking’ involved in financial engineering, of late. …”
An excerpt ^ from the subscriber side. This, that somehow the media has connected to an ever online always trading hive, makes magical “kidding” ourselves increasingly dangerous. None of the fundamental world events the last several years would have failed to move markets of old but, this time is different? Nope. Magical.
I am watching the bond market (as is my bent) thinking this won’t work, a TNX at >4.5% works against engineering a graceful step back, step down in rates. Sure. Inflation (moreso stagflation) exists as a countervailing theme, but there’s only one way out kids. We the People can’t afford higher Treasury rates. They ripple as a budget line expense for 10 years -or- gulp, 30 years. Let’s not.
Interesting pivot wordslinger, over on the contributor side, while most spend pixels on world wars I keep watching the Ring of Fire. Looks like it’s very late cycle and something (or several Mount Dooms) may just blow. Defeats the “climate change” thing in a day but otherwise not global fun.
I’m still betting on dying an old man.
Oops, already …
Egor
We used to spend most of our summers camping when we were little. 2 adults and 8 kids would cram into the station wagon and drive to a state park. Each kid had a bag made by my mother that was about a foot tall and maybe 6 inches wide. We were to squish whatever we needed in the way of clothes into our bags. One year ,my brother was about 4 or 5, only filled his bag with toys. He lived in his swimsuit for 2 weeks and a borrowed sweatshirt from a sister who brought 2. My father would go to work during the week and come to the campsite on weekends. We stayed the maximum amount of days then returned home to do laundry and return again to the campground the next day.
We had cereal for breakfast, were given a peanut butter sandwich to take with us for lunch, and told not to return until dinnertime. The cost for dinner was firewood, huge dead limbs we dragged back to camp.
The baby stayed at camp. and my youngest sister was responsible for my 2 other preschool brothers.She might have been a second graders at the time. Shocking looking back on it now. My mother had no idea where 7 of her kids were during daylight hours for most of the summer. Rain or shine, we weren’t allowed back at the campsite.
My father liked civil war stuff so we saw every state park within driving range on weekends during the school year. One time there was a severe storm and it was difficult to drive so my father asked a farmer for shelter. We slept in a chicken coup without sleeping bags while my parents slept in the car. Coldest night ever.
Occasionally we camped on a beach and the tent usually flooded despite digging rain trenches. There’s nothing like packing up wet, sandy sleeping bags and tents/tarps in the rain with gusting winds and lighting all around.
God that’s a marvelous story to share – the mom made duffel bags,…I had forgotten – thank you Elanor..
Knock knock
Who’s there?
$106,900
$106,900 Who?
“Ponzis'” Best Daily Close of ALL TIME!
Next stop $142K this year, $125K no problema.
Yerp historic failures, indeed..be time for another helping, suggest haters don a bib prior to eating another bowl full.
foo goo poo shakespeare
I’ve had my 50-bagger full. I ain’t eating that gruel no mo’!
“A depression would sure come in handy right about now.” Overheard from a floor trader on the CBOE.
– He may have something there.
–
Rode the Harley up to the gun range – tapped in the code on the key pad and rode through the gate. I had to get off to close the gate – as I did, I noticed a small rattle snake curled up in the sun next to the post. He wasn’t shaking his ass-off to warn the big clumsy human.., but did occasionally taste the air with his darting tongue. I watched him for a moment – beautiful markings. Wished him a good day hunting and rode down the road to the pistol range.
No one there. A great sunny morning., and not a soul in sight. I was there for close to two hours and no one showed the whole time. Very nice – very peaceful. [ If being at a pistol range can ever really be ‘peaceful’.]
–
I agree with Jimmy Rogers.., and now Buffet is selling off banking stock., building his cash mountain even higher. Two of the best are putting their money where their mouth is.., selling stocks and hoarding cash / gold. That, my fellow readers is a huge, direct, in your face, hint of bad things are just around the corner.
I agree with our host., that long expiration ‘put’ options may be the next trade. [ Good Chart-Pac this morning – thanks ! ]
–
.., and why is it that very, VERY few people consider a sailboat as their mobility / adventure / nomad life-choice ? When someone mentions “the van life”., or “adventure camping”.., the first thing I think of is a sailboat.
–
Contemplating accepting an invite to a private game. I have turned down two so far this year., but this one sounds pretty good.
“Stay Frosty !”
had a sailboat in the Hudson for several years..just below Tarrytown. An instant vacation. Great to see fireworks on the 4th..from NYC to Bear Mountain and no parking problems. Hunter 27..just right for 3 little kids. Also drove them cross country …camping, cabins. Good times
“is Inflation going to Save us? ”
The system is gonna change just like 1913 changed from metals to fiats.
Trump said he’s an Ecoin guy and will lead the system from fiats to tokenization.
Instead of our FRNs getting outright confiscated like the old timers gold we’ll experience a soft confiscation. We’ll get an amount of time to turn in our cash/coins to be converted into tokens. Once the date passes the FRNs/coins will be historic relics. Decide.
FUD
That would be the the transhuman globohomos’ tokens in Ureope. israhell first tRump is not on board with that scheisse..supposedly.
Better to jump in Now and worry about swimming later.
The big SQUEZZE in BTC is just around the corner.
How do I know this, its Maths, dammit!
Only 13k BTC are mined per month now.
40k are purchased each month. When you add these two figures together they sum a big honking SQUEZZE.
And everyone I know loves squeezing’s, not just corn squeezings – Im talking squeezing the one Ure with.
Maybe even a lil Bach on ole Monopolar Flame Speaker….https://youtu.be/5c_jsJmAJgw watch Ure vol. control on this one, the distortion is real.
* there is good reason they are calling it the Genius Act..good reason.
“Carnac the Magnificent” is still over 2,400 points from it’s all-time-high set back in February. .., and my modified MACD has rounded over this morning and may be heading down.
This does appear to be a very good place for the start of a Wave Three down.
But – what will the ‘trigger’ be? They ignore all fundamentals., so a “news trigger” will be the motivation. .., and that is nearly impossible to predict and/or trade on.
As Dimon said a couple of days back – “There is far too much complacency in the markets today.”
‘Trump has chosen architecture for Golden Dome’, no, Trump is kissing Muck’s posterior, Muck’s SpaceX to cash in on Gloden Dome contracts:
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/musks-spacex-is-frontrunner-build-trumps-golden-dome-missile-shield-2025-04-17/
Muck denies ulterior greed motive:
‘The White House, SpaceX, Palantir, and Anduril also did not respond to questions. After publication, Musk replied to a post about Reuters’ story on his social network X without elaborating: “This is not true.”
SUBSCRIPTION SERVICE
In an unusual twist, SpaceX has proposed setting up its role in Golden Dome as a “subscription service” in which the government would pay for access to the technology, rather than own the system outright.’
Some experts believe the overall cost for Golden Dome could reach hundreds of billions of dollars. The Pentagon established several timelines for capabilities to be delivered starting with early 2026 to those delivered after 2030.
“Laura Grego, research director at the nonprofit Union of Concerned Scientists, questioned the feasibility of such a defense system given that multiple studies have concluded it is a “bad idea, expensive and vulnerable.”
‘How we are losing the Recreation Race’,
U.S. only country to lose $12.5 Billion from Int’l Travelers, Thanks to Darlin’ Donny!
‘According to the study, the U.S, the largest Travel & Tourism sector in the world, is the only country among 184 economies analysed by WTTC and Oxford Economics, forecast to see international visitor spending decline in 2025.’
“Julia Simpson, WTTC President & CEO, said: “This is a wake-up call for the U.S. government. The world’s biggest Travel & Tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction, not because of a lack of demand, but because of a failure to act. While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign.”
https://wttc.org/news/us-economy-set-to-lose-12-5bn-in-international-traveler-spend-this-year
The 30 Year Bond just went over 5% [ 5.08%]
.., and the 13 Week is over 4.24 %
Gonna be some blow-back from this percentage spike-up.
dLynn :
and … the TNX printed 4.607 which took out the prior peak at 4.592 on 04/11/25. This yield rise while the Buck slumps is a double edge sword for holders. Wonder how many double down looking for relief? Regardless, yields here are not constructive (and oppose other assets, needing to catch a bid). We sold $16B in 20 year paper today. Leap puts anyone?
In addition to the Buck, and US Treasuries, watch the Japanese Yen, and their bonds. Something’s wrong to my eye. Possibly more carry trade disruptions. Lots of unwind in progress.
Egor
Guess you boyz are both pretty well blown away by this morning’s ChartPack call, huh? (bows, waiting for people to throw thousand dollar bills but has the feeling it could be a long wait…)
That solar flare… from Moderately Sleazy News (MSN) happened last week. Old news by now. and they call it. “…classified as the most potent possible at X2.7.” is also more BS. X is the highest class, but the numbers can go MUCH higher than 2.7. That spot has rotated into earth view now, and hasn’t produced so much as an M-class crackle so far. Solar flux numbers are in the doldrums for now.
You would do well to check: https://www.solarham.com/
for the latest solar aggregate information. The MSN ‘flare scare’ happened on the 14th… last week. There is NO inbound CME to give us an earthquake.
And on the subject of Tsunamis… they are large enough that they ‘wrap around’ to any facing shore… not just the nearest shore, and they will affect the entire Pacific Ocean ‘bathtub’… including here in Hawaii. We had a small (1 ft) tsunami here from the 3/11 Fukushima earthquake, but it funneled into the Maui harbor and caused several feet of water rise that damaged the docks there.
What if?
1) 10 Trillion funds from Europe…per Armstrongeconomics site.
2) 10 Trillion funds from Middle east
3) 10 Trillion funds need rollover from 2020 or so corporate
4) Japan bonds on ropes from British Fed suggestions last 20 years.
In the end all well.