Been  a good ride, but seems to be rolling over in our read of the S&P Housing Data just out:  When they don’t lead a press release with the “change” slug, it means to read carefully!

NEW YORK, AUGUST 27, 2019 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for June 2019 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. continues to slow. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spindices.com.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.1% annual gain in June, down from 3.3% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.8%, down from 2.2% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.1% year-over-year gain, down from 2.4% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Las Vegas and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In June, Phoenix led the way with a 5.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with a 5.5% increase, and Tampa with a 4.7% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending June 2019 versus the year ending May 2019.
The charts on the following page compare year-over-year returns of different housing price ranges (tiers) for the top two cities, Phoenix and Las Vegas.

A couple of charts latter, we get to the “confessional” part.  Tiny gains.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.6% in June. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.2% increase and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.3% increase for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.2% month-over-month increase in June. The 10-City and the 20-City Composites did not report any gains. In June, 19 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 17 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

All of which makes it LOOK like there’s an increase.  We’ll skip $225K in 2007 needing to be $271,840 today and not even accounting for another half-year of inflation..let’s not quibble, shall we?

Wait a minute Ure…this IS an increase!”

At last, our point.  The 20-City Composite is up 2.1% year on year.

The latest M2 from the Federal Reserve is up 4.9% year on year.

Want to go back to your desk and pencil out how “Housing is Up?”  Looks to us like if Housing is up 2.1 and Money is up 4.9 someone lost 2.8…but then I never was any good at math.

Neither is wall St.  Futures up 113 on the Dow now.  Go figure.  Numeracy is rampant.

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

Bigger than the Trade War
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