Housing Flatlines – Sort of…

Been  a good ride, but seems to be rolling over in our read of the S&P Housing Data just out:  When they don’t lead a press release with the “change” slug, it means to read carefully!

NEW YORK, AUGUST 27, 2019 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for June 2019 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. continues to slow. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spindices.com.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.1% annual gain in June, down from 3.3% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.8%, down from 2.2% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.1% year-over-year gain, down from 2.4% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Las Vegas and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In June, Phoenix led the way with a 5.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with a 5.5% increase, and Tampa with a 4.7% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending June 2019 versus the year ending May 2019.
The charts on the following page compare year-over-year returns of different housing price ranges (tiers) for the top two cities, Phoenix and Las Vegas.

A couple of charts latter, we get to the “confessional” part.  Tiny gains.

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.6% in June. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.2% increase and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.3% increase for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.2% month-over-month increase in June. The 10-City and the 20-City Composites did not report any gains. In June, 19 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 17 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

All of which makes it LOOK like there’s an increase.  We’ll skip $225K in 2007 needing to be $271,840 today and not even accounting for another half-year of inflation..let’s not quibble, shall we?

Wait a minute Ure…this IS an increase!”

At last, our point.  The 20-City Composite is up 2.1% year on year.

The latest M2 from the Federal Reserve is up 4.9% year on year.

Want to go back to your desk and pencil out how “Housing is Up?”  Looks to us like if Housing is up 2.1 and Money is up 4.9 someone lost 2.8…but then I never was any good at math.

Neither is wall St.  Futures up 113 on the Dow now.  Go figure.  Numeracy is rampant.

Write when you get rich,


14 thoughts on “Housing Flatlines – Sort of…”

  1. Well thanks for the report old dude. I hadnt looked until just now. Seems legit. Lol

    I met some some fellas from S. Compton last weekend and i learned a bunch of new slang terms. They called me Hannibal. lol been called many things, that is a new one. We were standing there and this very beautiful lady in a short dress and heels walks by. Right Right says, sugar? 2 week drink says, nahhh sweet and low. I said, what’s sweet and low. He says, looks like sugar but comes with a small package. Then i notice her adams apple. Hahahahhahha

    I met with a Tao Master yesterday, part of an ongoing dialog. We meet several times a week. I get in his car, smile and say, Hi. He smiles says, shhhhhhhh today we are going to slay your ego, cupcake. Let enjoy this calm before the carnage. Hahahah. He called me the Mouse Turd King. Lol

    As im sitting here with cactus getting ready to do my cadio, im reminded that cactus are balls of pricks and so are most politicans.

    Dont believe the Hype, we havent got the revised numbers, yet. :) they wont be out for a few months. Few being 2.

    Its a beautiful to fall in love.

  2. Ya know what this Tao Master sent to me this morning George?

    “Dumb people are blissfuly unaware of how dumb they really are.”

    I said, hmmmmm true. Thank you. He said, dont thank me. I got that from Patrick Starfish from Bikini Bottom.

    • Never mind where you’ve got it from ;-) bliss is really all we want to achieve, and they are ahead of the game.

    • Andy, er, I mean the King: I’m thinking that that particular line of thought has been researched a great deal in the psych literature, although the bliss part doesn’t agree with personal observations. At one place I worked, this became required reading for new professional employees:


      That the ego figures into that sort of thing would fit with personal observations. So how do I know that I myself have been a competent practitioner of this or that? The answer is: no one knows their own competence; it is the people around you whose competence and opinions you value who will tell you. All you can do is strive to not let your ego and your ignorance get other people hurt or killed, and money squandered. Pay attention when someone you would normally believe knows what they are doing tells you that you are full of sh_t. They aren’t always right, but you need to reflect on it, and get a second or third opinion. Only then do you brush off the criticism, or stand in opposition.

      A fellow I worked with several decades back had his own version of this which I will try to quote as best I can remember:

      “I can find work for a stupid person which they can do, and I can point a hard head in the right direction, and let ’em go, but oh no, not a stupid hard head. You can’t do anything with them”.

      Note to Coot: I have yet to find a real engineer who claims to be a climate guy. I’m thinking the percentage of real engineers who get their licenses pulled for criminal convictions runs a lot lower than that of lawyers, who all seem to think they are climate guys these days.

      I’m thinking I like your Tao Master’s line of BS; has he got a blog or website or social media or something? Just so its free and I don’t have to give up an email.

      • No. He doesnt have a website. I met him in person. He doesnt look like Tao master. He doesnt even know he is practicing TAO. He is very gifted and his thought lines with the TAO stuff. He isnt afraid to call me on my sh_t. He isnt afraid to challenge me to grow. He isnt afraid to put me in Check. I listen to him, because He has a certain way about, that i dont possess. I love how he processes information. Its foreign to me, and so i am gaining new insite and tools. :) at the expense of my “ego”. I dont mind placing that on the alter of sacrifice to gain more usefullness and better equipped skill set.

        Its like this: i dont know everything. i know more than most. I sent a couple emails to george last night. George has taught me sooooo much. I only come here cause I like George. I take what George has taught me and I stream line it as much as i can, i apply it as efficiently as possible and it gives me more “free” time to do what i want. Its not always what people say but the Principles behind what they say. If i apply the principles effectively to what i want?? I dont even need money, it comes to me in other ways. I can have whatever i want through application of Principle. The other half the battle is knowing where to look. Knowing where to look at what matters, gives me the pulse of any situation. be that Body language, sales, relationship dynamics or just plane data.

        Dont get me wrong, im woo woo as F. Im supra intuitional but i use data to help me understand a language i sometimes am unable to comprehend.

        Have you ever read “How to live on $10,000 a year”? Written by Sensei Ure a while ago? Hands down probably the best $10 i have ever spent. :) its got useful information. If you look deeper, the principles held with, can change your life.

        Believe it or not, George is sorta a Shaman Sensai.

      • Lol. Im sure wothout a doubt Zeus is smarter than both of us combined. When is the last time he clocked in 9-5 and paid a utility bill. Lol the world is his and doesnt worry about nothing. :)

  3. Yo G – speaking of Statistical Frauds & Lying Liars ( 4 da $) Michael (hockeystick) Mann commits Contempt of Court in the climate science trial of the Century – failed to produce ANY and All Information backing/supporting his wild ass climate claims – now proven to have willfully hidden his data. This clown sues his critics, rather than engage in the scientific process of putting your data and conclusions out there for others to chew on and support/debunk.

    Too bad for Mike, Im gonna guess that bridge IS safe drive over, even if 100 Criminals..unh I mean Engineers say its not safe.

    Short the SPY, Long PM Miners and Streamers..what will U do with ALL that $$ Mmmwaaahahaha

  4. 234 point drop, couting the 113 suckers bet. Lol

    Hey George, do you remember what i said about slot machines??? “When i see the number ‘777’ hit anywhere on the machine, its my sign to cash out. Doesnt matter if its in the money i got in the machine, money in my pocket or some strange dynamic on the screen.


    I wonder if the same applies to the stock market ticker? 25,777 at the moment (ATM)

    Im going to 6 flags on sunday with some friends. Should be fun. Havent been on a Roller Coaster in 20 years. :)

    Ohhh yeah, i got the books for the SIE.essentials. probably get on that next week. Lol

    Later old dudes. Im off to kick my own ass in the gym then go get my ass kicked again by the TAO master. This dude is bad ass and he is soooo funny! I dont mind getting my ass kicked as long as it produces new growth. duuuuddde! This guy is off the charts. :)

  5. Was at the local lumber yard today, talking to the manager.
    Conversation turned to his lack of employees.
    His is but one of several stores in a regional chain
    I patronize them almost exclusively over the nation wide big box stores.
    The corporate office hires staff at all the stores based upon total sales per store.
    His total sales have been down so much that corporate won’t replace the 2 employee’s he has lost recently.
    The thing is, his total cross the counter sale quantity has not decreased….just the total dollar amount, due to a huge drop in lumber prices.
    I was quoting a job Saturday thru the same store. I got some current lumber prices from the same place, from the one new hire corporate has sent him.
    It was so dramatically much lower than normal that I didn’t submit my bid until confirming the prices on Monday with the manager.
    Materials are generally 50% of my price. My price is what your discussing here.
    Add this as a caveat to the overall discussion.

    • “The corporate office hires staff at all the stores based upon total sales per store.:”

      Unfortunately Tim
      That’s how it is everywhere..a company cant change the costs of set expenses. Just like a household.. basic coats go up you cut in costs that you can flux.
      We had a basic increase in utilities not a huge one on one of the services.. but big enough that to compensate it would take a 4cent increase in take home wages.. the little local company if they gave it this increase to their employees would have to generate an extra fifty grand per year.. or raise across the board prices bytes say a nickle..they couldn’t do that of course and stay competitive so to compensate for the increase they had they reduced the one thing they could..staff..
      I worked in a medical facility. If your one to three beds down everyone loses a half hour.. 3 to five an hour.. 5 beds the annual witch hunt happens where they reduce the older higher paid staff.. hire younger lower paid no benefit staff..
      A sad fact of life..I cant even tell you how many times it was tag your it for up to a hundred patients..
      Which reminds me I get to make an appointment with my regular clinic doctor that didnt research medical jobs and hates it.. I’ll be up fron TV and tell him hes a shizt head and no matter where he works even a cook at shonie’s it’s the same. He is just fortunate to work for the gravy train..

  6. Totally OT, but I must share: I’ve spent most of the past month tooling around Michigan/Wisconsin/Minnesota. ‘First place I gassed up was a “Speedway” in Battle Creek. They not only had real gasoline (93 octane, “contains no alcohol”), they had an island which dispensed Cam2 Racing gasoline (110 octane, LEADED, “contains no alcohol!!!”) I’d guess perhaps as many as 20% of the “Premium” pumps in Michigan are alcohol-free, based on traveling from Motown to KZoo, and up/down the LP, then back/forth across da UP (and buying a dozen tanks of gas…) ‘Even saw the Cam2 pumps in Ironwood (which is one of the few places in Michigan where one can sport a Green Bay Packers license plate without their car getting “keyed.”) First time in a coon’s age I’ve seen Cam2 north of Tulsa.

    I just bet’cha a little Pri-G would preserve that petrol for decades…

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