OK, I confess! I’m short again thinking the market is about ready to fall on its toches.
We are up half a ham sandwich for the week, but that’s ain’t much, but we continue to hold the short position and may do so through the weekend.
I don’t know if we have ever talked about the Friday holding decision, or not. But it’s one of the most difficult of all.
If you are long the market (expecting it to go up next week) it’s easy: If you are short the market and expect things to go to hell over the weekend, it’s easy, too. But, when it could go either way next week…well, that’s the rub.
Sitting here with a decent short position and the futures pointing to an open within yesterday’s range, about all we can do is line up the expected future for next week.
Let’s begin with headlines.
We see how Trump is “pre-selling” the young- NorK leader on the idea if he is playing us, the US will walk away from “not fruitful” discussions.
Forget the headlines and the vid-bites. Ask yourself “If this goes well, will the markets rally? If it goes badly, will the market crumble?”
Not too difficult on this one: I don’t see it as a biggie EXCEPT if the NorK’s explode a nuke right after the talks fail. Then it would account for a drop.
Upside good news? Limited.
Well, how about the Washington Psychodrama, then?
But, short of a Mueller filing on a democrat before the close of today, does this change the balanace-of-power in the Swamp? Not so far as we can tell.
We noticed that there were a ton of redactions in the Comey memos, and that may tell us something…it will just take lots of time and a decoder ring to figure out who the initials are. Gut feeling? Look at Clapper in all this…
But forget the “news” is the point. We’ve been blasted with “indictment any day now” crap from the audience scamming mainstream that is obsolete and just hasn’t figured it out, yet.
Anything going to change from the close today to before the open Monday? Insert your judgment call here.
Next is the international picture.
Syria? I expect an attack any time. Payback for the missile show. We (oddly) agree with the NY Times that missile attacks will change nothing. Although since we said that earlier this week, would that be them agreeing with us?
Does it blow up this weekend into more serious fighting? Low probability, since both sides are looking to “manage through” the mess. But something like a strike on a US ship just prior to Monday’s market open could be a disaster to the downside.
Then we have Ukraine – which hasn’t been rolled front and center before the sheep by the mainstream herders, yet.
While we are reading about how Russian-backed forces have launched missile attacks inside Ukraine, we are simply waiting for the MSM to wake up to the reality that Ukraine is hotly disputed territory and that could blow up over the weekend, too.
Stories about Kardashians won’t impact markets, but they are closing their DASH storefronts.
Instead, we think the story about GE profits being up may have more impact.
Sizing Up Next Week
Chicago Fed National Activity Index CFNAI will be out Monday. We expect it will boost upside hopes.
We’ll be looking at searches like [real estate prices] in news search engines today since next Tuesday is the Case-Shiller report.
Similarly, durable goods and GDP late next week are already “baked in” to current pricing.
So that’s really how it lays out.
You do know Hitler was born 20 April 1889, right?
There is some lore going to the idea that mass/outrage shootings, murders, and so forth are timed to this date.
If anything really BIG pops today, remember whose BD it is…
Not to keep pricking your bubbles (I’ve been called a prick plenty of times, don’t get me wrong) but have you no reading skills? Get a remedial copy of today’s Chicago Tribune:
Or, if you look at Detroit’s News, you will see 143 years of records are about to fall.
Yet, a Google News search of [climate change] returns more hits than ever.
Still, when we read Antarctic glacial meltwater driving ice melt, sea level rise, it did remind us that global warming has been going on since the last Ice Age ended. At the coldest, sdea level was down about 250-feet from present, and as long-term recovery continues, a rise of more than a hundred feet is still in the cards.
But what’s appalling is that writing a check to anyone, in any amount, won’t stop a thing. Slow it, for the geological equivalent of a few seconds? Maybe, if we turn off all the heat and light on Earth.
But thinking we can “regulate” an intractable process spanning tens of thousands of years? GMAFB. Look at the data. Show me a man-caused cooling of even a fraction of a degree…and maynbe I could get excited.
We live in a world that has been excessively monetized. We think government and regulations will save us – and hate to break it to you, but the won’t.
Think any amount of dollars could prevent even a single Krakatoa? Please. More recently (1980) Mt. St. Helens? Again, no.
There are just bigger issues than money and regulations. Things that are not changable at a meaningful level.
Not to promote nihilism, of course. But, the charlatans of climate are working like mad to monetize a solution…without absolutely NO proof of anything.
Which gets us to our recommendation for nuclear war. Nuclear Winter is how to cool the planet, reduce long-living human populations, and so forth.
The tools are all in place…the answer is already paid-for. Set ’em off over unpopulated areas…and make them as clean as possible. Evacuate the regions first.
Seriously: We have some theories about albedo and chemtrails – even lots of video of spraying – but does it stop natural processes? Afraid not.
People need to recognize that despite media hype to the contrary, there’s not a check-writing answer out there. Even if man-caused change is backed out, Earth is still going to change…and all the hype in the world isn’t going to change that reality.
So off to the power tools and moron Monday (sic).