Hold Short for the Weekend?

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OK, I confess!  I’m short again thinking the market is about ready to fall on its toches.

We are up half a ham sandwich for the week, but that’s ain’t much, but we continue to hold the short position and may do so through the weekend.

I don’t know if we have ever talked about the Friday holding decision, or not.  But it’s one of the most difficult of all.

If you are long the market (expecting it to go up next week) it’s easy:  If you are short the market and expect things to go to hell over the weekend, it’s easy, too.  But,  when it could go either way next week…well, that’s the rub.

(Continues below)

 

Sitting here with a decent short position and the futures pointing to an open within yesterday’s range, about all we can do is line up the expected future for next week.

Let’s begin with headlines.

We see how Trump is “pre-selling” the young- NorK leader on the idea if he is playing us, the US will walk away from “not fruitful” discussions.

Forget the headlines and the vid-bites.  Ask yourself “If this goes well, will the markets rally?  If it goes badly, will the market crumble?”

Not too difficult on this one:  I don’t see it as a biggie EXCEPT if the NorK’s explode a nuke right after the talks fail.  Then it would account for a drop.

Upside good news?   Limited.

Well, how about the Washington Psychodrama, then?

Well, Trump has Giuliani now, and we are starting to read the Comey memos AND the Andrew McCabe case has been referred to federal prosecutors….

But, short of a Mueller filing on a democrat before the close of today, does this change the balanace-of-power in the Swamp?  Not so far as we can tell.

We noticed that there were a ton of redactions in the Comey memos, and that may tell us something…it will just take lots of time and a decoder ring to figure out who the initials are.  Gut feeling?  Look at Clapper in all this…

But forget the “news” is the point.  We’ve been blasted with “indictment any day now” crap from the audience scamming mainstream that is obsolete and just hasn’t figured it out, yet.

Anything going to change from the close today to before the open Monday?  Insert your judgment call here.

Next is the international picture.

Syria?  I expect an attack any time.  Payback for the missile show.  We (oddly) agree with the NY Times that missile attacks will change nothing.  Although since we said that earlier this week, would that be them agreeing with us?

Does it blow up this weekend into more serious fighting?  Low probability, since both sides are looking to “manage through” the mess.  But something like a strike on a US ship just prior to Monday’s market open could be a disaster to the downside.

Then we have Ukraine – which hasn’t been rolled front and center before the sheep by the mainstream herders, yet.

While we are reading about how Russian-backed forces have launched missile attacks inside Ukraine, we are simply waiting for the MSM to wake up to the reality that Ukraine is hotly disputed territory and that could blow up over the weekend, too.

Stories about Kardashians won’t impact markets, but they are closing their DASH storefronts.

Instead, we think the story about GE profits being up may have more impact.

Sizing Up Next Week

Chicago Fed National Activity Index CFNAI will be out Monday.  We expect it will boost upside hopes.

We’ll be looking at searches like [real estate prices] in news search engines today since next Tuesday is the Case-Shiller report.

Similarly, durable goods and GDP late next week are already “baked in” to current pricing.

So that’s really how it lays out.

Hitler’s Birthday

You do know Hitler was born 20 April 1889, right?

There is some lore going to the idea that mass/outrage shootings, murders, and so forth are timed to this date.

If anything really BIG pops today, remember whose BD it is…

Dear Climateer:

Not to keep pricking your bubbles (I’ve been called a prick plenty of times, don’t get me wrong) but have you no reading skills?  Get a remedial copy of today’s Chicago Tribune:

“More spring snow in Chicago, and forecasters call April’s start among coldest in 130 years ”

Or, if you look at Detroit’s News, you will see 143 years of records are about to fall.

Yet, a Google News search of [climate change] returns more hits than ever.

Still, when we read Antarctic glacial meltwater driving ice melt, sea level rise, it did remind us that global warming has been going on since the last Ice Age ended.  At the coldest, sdea level was down about 250-feet from present, and as long-term recovery continues, a rise of more than a hundred feet is still in the cards.

But what’s appalling is that writing a check to anyone, in any amount, won’t stop a thing.  Slow it, for the geological equivalent of a few seconds?  Maybe, if we turn off all the heat and light on Earth.

But thinking we can “regulate” an intractable process spanning tens of thousands of years? GMAFB.  Look at the data.  Show me a man-caused cooling of even a fraction of a degree…and maynbe I could get excited.

The ONLY solutions are sensible ecology like that promoted by Allan Savory…

We live in a world that has been excessively monetized.  We think government and regulations will save us – and hate to break it to you, but the won’t.

Think any amount of dollars could prevent even a single Krakatoa?  Please.  More recently (1980) Mt. St. Helens?  Again, no.

There are just bigger issues than money and regulations.  Things that are not changable at a meaningful level.

Not to promote nihilism, of course.  But, the charlatans of climate are working like mad to monetize a solution…without absolutely NO proof of anything.

Which gets us to our recommendation for nuclear war.  Nuclear Winter is how to cool the planet, reduce long-living human populations, and so forth.

The tools are all in place…the answer is already paid-for.  Set ’em off over unpopulated areas…and make them as clean as possible.  Evacuate the regions first.

Seriously:  We have some theories about albedo and chemtrails – even lots of video of spraying – but does it stop natural processes? Afraid not.

People need to recognize that despite media hype to the contrary, there’s not a check-writing answer out there.  Even if man-caused change is backed out, Earth is still going to change…and all the hype in the world isn’t going to change that reality.

So off to the power tools and moron Monday (sic).

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George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/
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39 thoughts on “Hold Short for the Weekend?”

  1. The fact of 20 April being Hitler’s birthday, has lately been overshadowed by popular culture celebrating this date as Marijuana Awareness Day.

  2. George

    As a former practitioner in the Nuclear War arena I have to ask:

    ARE YOU F****** KIDDING?????

  3. One thing might change if we move from fossil fuels to something else (whey protien converted into methane and burned – solar energy at its finest and minimal minimal mining of rare earth elements to do so NorK has lots).

    That change might be less war for resources (Oil).

  4. Winner of yesterday’s DEFINE THAT WORD game. The word was TRUMP.

    WINNER – CL – Twitters Relentlessly Until Meltdowns Proliferate

    HONORABLE MENTION – Id – The Ruler Under Mighty Protection.

    The next contest will be Tuesday April 24.

    • I like people with an imagination and a discrete for a pleasant Island establishment where people can live without the conflict in over rulers of queens and kings bankers but with a researcher neurotransmitter.

      Okay I ,I know I’ve been getting off track here lately but May all beings be lovingly fulfilled ,so be it

    • My Economics 11 teacher in High school(early 70s) held a contest for one semester. Each student was to pick two stocks(explain research) and hold till end to see whom the winner was.
      I picked a brewery & distillery and won. Was teased in beginning/teatotalling community et al they were also against gambling.

  5. April 19 plus/minus a couple are far more significant to the USofA than Hitler’s birthday unless there is a multi-century plan.

    It’s Patriots Day, ‘the shot heard ’round the world’, which started our Revolutionary War. Those that hate this country have a special animus for this day, which takes various forms, To wit:
    The Waco Texas Massacre (FBI etc.),
    The bombing of the Murrah Bldg where the Waco records were kept,
    The Columbine school shootings (practice for future events?). Today is the 19th anniversary!
    The Boston Marathon bombings.
    This morning’s school shooting in Florida.
    Lots more…
    Our left-wing domestic communists just hate 4-19-1775.

  6. The risk is DEFINITELY ON !! Markets are dry tinder waiting for a match. I like that the Kardashes are getting ignored, as they always were just fluff. Distractions for the masses, to allow the elite to move their chess pieces more. Anyhoo, crazy world about to get crazier. Stay calm, watch out for the people with their hair on fire, and remember…”When the going gets tough, the tough get going” !!

  7. There is no disagreement that the climate is changing. That’s what it does. The question is will it be getting warmer or colder in our future lifetime. History tells us that generally warmer is good, colder is bad for most life on earth. For now, sunspot and magnetic field cycles of the sun seem to indicate short term colder is coming. Unfortunately there is no balanced coverage of this in the presstitute media. I suspect that the winter of 2019 will make a lot more people aware of this issue.

    • If you would have watched the two-hour Nova special on PBS this week, “Decoding the Climate Machine”, in which they ‘scienced’ the s**t out of the topic, you would have a few more facts to mull over and maybe even more well-reasoned opinions, as a result. I’m just saying…

      • That NOVA show was quite enlightening. The scientists seemed to have no doubt that humans are changing the climate.

        The fossil extractors have monetized their opposition to government addressing the issue and have been able to convince quite a few other people to believe their propaganda. Meanwhile the fossil extractors prepare their own PP&E for rising sea levels. Once again folks are convinced to vote against their own self interests.

      • Take away the government subsidy and PBS will shrivel-up, die & blow away.
        Same goes for the ‘scientists’ as just about all of them get government payoffs either directly or indirectly.
        You dance with the one who brung ya.
        This is all about a world-wide capitation tax where we will pay the politicians to control us. These are the same people that want to confiscate our weapons. Now you know why…

  8. George, excellent economic piece today.

    BTW, IF Trump pulls off de-nuking N.Korea, it may be worth all the chaos, the incompetence, the nonstop lying, the dangerous disruption of democratic institutions, the catering to white supremacists, the dumb economic policy, and the raging corruption.

    Of course, he’s so hungry for a victory, he may settle for an ineffective one rather than one like with Iran. Best, Mike

  9. George,I’ve been telling you for years to watch the success-or lack of- the Phillies are having to determine whether gold is about to make a major move up or down.In October 2011,with gold around 1900,I told a few well heeled people I know to sell all their gold immediately as the Phillies were hit with a major injury.The metal began its descent soon afterward.

    The two entities have moved virtually in tandem since gold’s re-legalization in 1975.

    Now it looks as if the Phillies are about to do a Jefferson and move on up.I would buy if I had enough quid available to make it worthwhile.

  10. What we have here is a challenge throughout the business community and the challenge is business letter writing I’m the one who expounds the writings throughout the Earth the winner but are they when you think about it Trump has not yet disabled them nor the money system that backs them up so what’s the plan

    • Maybe the plan is is as those external forces throughout the universe come into our space and there’s thousands of spaceships surrounding the earth and our son that are reducing the detrimental effects that it would have destroyed life on earth and the planets in our solar system in this part of the Galaxy so we have some people as you would say out there what’s happening

  11. “Look at the data. Show me a man-caused cooling of even a fraction of a degree…and maynbe I could get excited.”

    You can’t. through history the population was only a fraction of what there is today.
    at present rate our population will double every what thirty or forty years we don’t have to worry about global warming before long we will be shoulder to shoulder. depending on how much sex people have. With an aging society it might slow down quite a bit.. Hence the old saying what I use to do all day now takes me all day to do comes into play and then how many ladies are going to start entering menopause etc…
    when was it last year or the year before.. I am not sure but it was the first time in history that the earth wasn’t able to produce enough food to feed the population of the planet. Will industry opt to use green building.. instead of asphalt roofs a green garden growth roof…
    even then the only thing that would accomplish is slow down the natural process. and I doubt seriously that it would do that to. since what we have already done today will continue to increase for a fifty year period. so even if we quit using carbons instantly etc. etc.. it is still going to increase. How fast will it increase.. boy that is a tough one as well.. how much building are we going to continue to do. will there be a mass die off of humans. war famine etc. this brings up the Rosicrucian sect and the georgia guidestones.
    someone asked me what I thought about this very subject this morning. I personally think we have tipped and like a tree falling will only start to increase yearly. I wonder how fast the actual fall will be. the heat waves, the violent storms longer winters hotter summers less rain in some areas to much rain in others increase in volcanic activity and an increase in earth quakes, pestilence, disease, a larger die off of coral reefs and fish etc. but then you see the odd.. like how vegetation and animal life is migrating away from area’s that they once flourished in to new area’s, unfortunately man isn’t that flexible.. money I am with you I won’t spend the extra money on some fund that some money monkey is trying to make more green from.. it is most likely a scam. instead I will work on my garden ideas and hone it down to a workable project for efficiency and productivity.

    • Plant 100 trees, go door to door. Start a tree eating carbon movement. Give those little sapling babies away, better yet, plant those pecans, apples, etc.,trees. Convert that carbon to oxygen, breathe all about it.

  13. The balanace-of-power in the Swamp is us!!!!!
    And YOUR position is the pebble in your shoe.
    Adolf was in need of an erudite advisor like yourself, however, they were all Swamp people like today’s. The leader claps his hands, and everyone claps their hands. Does anyone care?

    • Trump cares… I truly believe he seen the mess the country he loves is in and thought he could fix it. He had the money to make a difference the fame and the experience. Now just look how far that’s gotten him..
      There’s millions more that care as well. We voted him into office. Now.. Look how far that’s gotten the citizens. To much power has been handed over to the puppet masters through the years. Unfortunately I am afraid there’s little we can do.

  14. “Which gets us to our recommendation for nuclear war. Nuclear Winter is how to cool the planet, reduce long-living human populations, and so forth.
    The tools are all in place…the answer is already paid-for. Set ’em off over unpopulated areas…and make them as clean as possible. Evacuate the regions first.”

    Another way would be a few EMP’s strategically placed. From all research and studies if a massive EMP was to happen our planet would be thrust back five thousand years. All without damaging our planet.
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0307127

    “Could Super Solar Flares Take Us Back To 5000 BC

    It is a very simple equation: Energy = Civilisation. Without any form of energy we regress to circa 5000 BC. Energy powers every aspect of our modern lifestyle: clean water, fresh food, lighting, comfortable shelter, mobility, communication, safety and security. Our very own giant hot star, the sun, is earth’s primary source of energy. On June 12th, at 00:55 Universal Time, an M2-class solar flare sparked a bright flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation, propelling a shock wave through the sun’s atmosphere, and hurling a billion-ton Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) into… (read the paper, only portion quotes under fair use due to copyright)

    It would take a opulent years to weed out humanity. Without the grid. Our replacement parts to keep our frail infrastructure in place now are ten years backordered. And since they’re not made in the USA there wouldn’t be any way to reboot manufacturing. Those that knew how from the old ways are now dead or dying off.. and we have everything in place for such an event. What’s funny is in areas that are more primative technologically will be the ones to survive an event of that magnitude. So will the colonies and the homeless.

      • The homeless rely on us who rely on the grid, don’t kid yourself. The cultures closer to the land will find a way. Everyone has a chance, but it will be a quick lesson in descent.

      • A…it depends on how you look at it. I met a man a few years ago..I’ll call him Mr. Manors. A true gentleman by making bad choices and unfortunate events in his life he ended up living in ditches and dumpsters. His only form of income was collecting aluminum cans. The police coined him the can man. When it got you rough for him to get in and out of the dumpsters someone stepped in and brought him to our attention. Anyway after getting to know him we extended our hand and gave him a place to stay.
        I was glad we did to. I learned a lot from him. Even though he used what we disposed of to survive he also developed the survival instinct. The resilience to adapt and overcome the hardships. For a lost forty years in one way or another I’ve worked caring for people. It was my nitch, where I found my true purpose in life. All those years I thought I understood and was empathic to others conditions when it hit me as my health declined I was amazed that..I didn’t have a foggy clue. Even though I’ve had my own rough patches in my life’s path there was so much that I realized that we take advantage of. The simple things. Where the homeless adapt to the situation are not bound to technology and the simple things to us that are luxuries to them.
        That is why I think they would have a better chance at surviving a major event.
        The vast majority of laborers are what.. Three paychecks away from being homeless. I have been visiting today with an old friend of my daughters that for some reason I got the inclination to contact. Found out she was robbed and dumped out in Oregon had to walk a great distance and hasn’t eaten in four days. I’m still trying to figure out the logistics on how I can help.

    • The planet without total carbon emissions would start cooling naturally. What was the estimate again-of human die off seventy percent.. or was it higher the end figure I’m not sure of. We would be thrust instantly into the dark ages. Famine,pestilence diseases lack of proper medical treatments. Oh the list is extensive.
      As a gentleman I use to have coffee with ( he was one of the major scientists for the Apollo space missions to the moon) use to say… JUST THINK ABOUT IT..

    • with the thought about the can man or mr. manors.. years ago and one of my hats I worked at a place where one year we built a display for a home show. to show off products for a luxury home.. the whole house was built out of card board.. a beautiful home if it was water proof I would have loved to live in it.. you wouldn’t have ever known it was cardboard boxes..Anyway we had a shift picnic and two officers on bicycles rode by on the bike path. we joked at the time that we should quick run back to the plant and build a small cottage including mail box and set it up quick so when they returned they would wonder where in the world did this come from. After meeting this man and having the pleasure of getting to know him.. I wished sincerely that we had gone back to the plant and made a quick cottage just so someone like him would find it.

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