The NYSE will close at 1 PM today (Eastern) to give brokers time off to spend all the money they made this year.
Both the Dow and S&P are expected to open on the up side after topping the 19-thousand and 22-hundred levels, respectively, earlier in the week.
What’s not clear is when the “normal” tax-selling will show up. Seems to vary a few weeks from year-to-year. Stocks that have been held and which are down for the year despite the bubbly market can be sold and losses claimed. But the timing is what matters.
Fidelity has a pretty good discussion of tax selling over here. It’s always a fine thing to make money. It’s an even finer thing to keep most of the gains.
How long will the present rally last?
Counter-balancing the idea of tax selling, we have the annual Santa Claus rally to expect. And with the markets doing so well, selling this year might do little more than realize gains and increase tax bills.
So called because it’s when retailers can make it “into the black” (profitability) for the year.
Once we get through the mess of today, it’s then on tyo Cyber Monday. Hand me the press release, please?
“Amazon.com today unveiled its plans for Cyber Monday and, with more than 75,000 deals during the week of Cyber Monday, there is sure to be something for everyone! Customers will continue to find new deals as often as every five minutes on toys, electronics, fashion items, and more at www.amazon.com/cybermonday.
Last year on Cyber Monday, Amazon customers ordered more than 54 million items worldwide – a record-breaking 629 items per second – and it’s expected that this year will be even bigger! On Cyber Monday 2015, Amazon customers purchased more than 33 electronics per second on mobile devices alone.”
About the only one on the board today is the International Trade in Goods report from Census:
Futures were up about 50 on the Dow.
Looking ahead to next week, we will get the Case-Shiller/S&P Housing data Tuesday. This will be especially interesting since New Residential home sales in October were reported Wednesday up 17.8% compared with year-ago levels.
It’s interesting to watch this one because so many “grays” are coming to the window where serious downsizing begins to make sense. Unanswered is what effect this will have on housing prices as the elders move to smaller, easier-upkeep homes. Will we see the beginning of a long-term sell-off? Or, are there enough middle income (and above) willing to buy up homes nowadays?
Hmm…Gold Used to Glitter
We lost a fair number of readers who were gold bugs when we mentioned that Gold was likely to fall to the $800-dollar range before we get to the bottom of things. Why, to even suggest that gold was to lose some luster, why it was unthinkable.
Except now we see headlines like Gold hits 9-1/2-month low on firm dollar; set for third weekly loss.
Could it continue down? Perhaps.
The dynamic in play right now is low rates expecting a modest hike at the December Fed meeting. The announcement will come on the 14th of December. The CBOE 10-year Note was going for 2.357 Wednesday. That is almost a whole point higher than lows posted in July.
Central America’s Woes
First there was the hurricane. Hurricane Otto has realy made a mess of things in Nicaragua and Costs Rica.
Then it was a major earthquake: Magnitude 7.0 offshore quake rattles Central America; Nicaragua declares state of emergency.
The proximity of the earthquake to the Super Moon is worth considering, but there’s something else, too. Low barometric pressure.
The atmosphere presses down everyplace on Earth, but not equally. One has only to look at weather pressure maps to see it.
I’m not sure how much work has been done on combinatorial weather and tides as quake triggers, but it would sure be interesting science.
Lufthansa pilots have reportedly extended their strike through Saturday which means 2,618 flights cancelled.