Longwave economics teaches us that every 48-64 years capitalist economies go through massive expansions and this is followed by contractions.
I’ve spent 15-years trying to figure out the answer to the “which came first, the chicken or the egg” of it all: Was it debasing the money supply that he Fed set in motion in 1913 and which has averaged 3.24% compounded since then, even including the Great Depression?
Or, has it be the periodic technology booms which come, bring massive change, and then 10-20 years after the break throughs, everything hits the fan while a new reality settles in?
This last one is particularly appealing since the Great Depression of the 1930’s was wrought by a combination of the traction engine (nowadays called tractors) that replaced draught animals, and the invention of the Ford auto which swept the country into a road rage which has lasted a good hundred years now with no end in sight.
Or, was it the Radio Trust? Radio was the “new thing” and promised to make people fortunes, but that was quickly regulated with the Communications Act of 1934 in which the Federal government seized the formerly “free” airwaves, much as government is eyeing internet kill switches and massive surveillance today, that will almost certainly lead to internet controls in the future since free-thinking and alternative viewpoints are dangerous things in the ands of free men.
And it’s in this larger context that we eye our trading model and expect there may be a minor increase in market levels in the early going this morning, but I would not trust them to be much more than a short-term technical correction this week. We won’t be able to clearly see the future until Wednesday or Thursday by which time we will have the first Janet Yellen Fed decision in hand, as well as tomorrow’s monthly Case Shiller/S&P Housing data. That will guide our thinking a bit.
More difficult for traders is the matter of the Bradley Siderograph turn date which comes up on Fed day. The normal Bradley turn would be down about now (and the markets may be telling us that) but the possibility of an inversion is also possible. We still need to see the S&P cash get down to the 1,770 levels and see if that holds for a while.
Some indication of a market change could come around 10 am Eastern when new home sales are announced. Durable goods tomorrow, along with the Housing data.
The main reason not to trust any momentary glee in the markets is simple: Asia got kicked on its ass last night: Japan was down 2.5% and China was down 2.11%. In Europe, Germany and France are holding their own, but England is down almost 3%.
So like I said, other than giving the commercials a place a bit higher from which to make more money shorting, I wouldn’t trust any strength in the early going this morning any more than I’d trust a politician.,
The Runaway Presidency
With the upcoming State of the Union (SoU) tonight, here’s a piece with six things to expect el Presidente to cover.
I use the term “el Presidente” carefully here. You see, aides were on the talking-heads circuit this weekend delivering clear threats that el Jefe would act through “executive orders” independent of Congress if he doesn’t get his way on the Hill.
Even more amazing, is that after essentially saying they would make up their own laws in order to prosecute their agenda, the White House says the posturing is “not confrontational.”
In this morning’s Coping section, some additional comments on how this administration is setting up “tolerance policies” that allow groups that can break the law long enough to somehow earn rights to be considered something other than law breakers.
But that’s likely just the start. The president has sinking ratings, as does congress and there’s a simple reason why: The will of the people has either been put in a trash compactor or has been sent down the garbage disposal.
On immigration? Mexicans eyeing America should be highly suspicious of a country that wants to import a new underclass. We’re doing a curious echo of Tammany Hall, only the power center isn’t New York this time around.
About all that’ll be missing would be a closing of “Viva los ustados” at the end of tonight’s hypefest. And perhaps we’ll get that next year.
More after this…
Somalia: America’s Newest Undeclared War
We’re at war with Somalia now. Oh, sure, the headlines make it out that American missiles were aimed at a “terrorist” in southern Somalia along their coast. But, in case you haven’t followed law closely, any time you go firing missiles into a country that is what?
An Act of War.
Not that Congress, which is up to its butt in excusifying, blustering, and BS’ing is likely to do any thing about it, any more than they did about Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq or…don’t get me started.
But, even if you haven’t watched Captain Phillips on instant video yet, the deal is that the West created its own nightmare on the Somali coast. Allegations persist that countries of Europe dropped hundreds of tons of toxic waste in those ocean waters and any fish that once provided for a passable living in the region were strip-fished by long liners and dragging operations stripping people of a way to make a living.
Captain Phillips only mentioned it in passing, but the aware reader can do their own research.
Point is simply this: We (der West) have hijacked and stripped out all the natural resource that wasn’t nailed down in Somalia. And now that the residents coastwise can’t earn a living, what do we do? Lob missiles at the power-seekers who are trying to organize themselves and their people and climb to the top of an ugly place.
Anyone who dares stand up to Western European (and American) exploitation is likely to find the same response that has been handed other parts of Africa in the past. We’re reliving the same bad habits, but we’re wrapped it up in flags and symbols so well that most people don’t recognize it for what it is: Exploiting the little people.
And that’s to the American Defense industry, the modern-day bonus is we get to monetize war. Wooo-hoo!
The “capper”? Most American’s swallow the hyperbole from transfictional media and are incapable of seeing the larger context of repetitive oppression. If a surgical strike doesn’t work, as it didn’t is Somalia last month, the up the tonnage and bombs away. We’re as intent on building fortunes on the backs of others as we were when the imported Chinese and Irish to build railroads. It’s just we have to reach out a little further now.
Still, there’s Hope Dept.
Or Maybe Not: The Daily Bomber
Oh, and you’ll love this story about how the UK government was paid thousands to promote a fake bomb detector. Thinking like that reminds me while why the Colonies broke off…