GDP: Message in Over-Hype?

Well, here we go again:  The daily attacks on Donald Trump, the miserable coverage by pseudo-journos, and again, none of it will make you any richer, but it sure feeds the ad machines that keeps network news co-opted since everything has a price.

Easy to manipulate if you know how to do it.  Just get some kind of social network linkage going, get a bunch of connections on social and then cross post using readily available tools.

What happens then is an item you’re promoting will be noticed as “trending” and with a bit more work, it will be picked up by the consultant-driven mainstream media.  Following so far?

Or, someone at the ad agency has a martin with someone from a big network and says “spin it this way or we kill all buys for 13-weeks….”  Money is power….

OK, let’s do a Google News Search for the term GDP.  Last month, the month before, and going back over a year, to the best of my recollection there has never been this kind of overhype foreplay before.

From the NY Times“Why Friday’s G.D.P. Number May Be a Size Too Big.”  A Pre-story? See,. this would be how to “set up” a track of money…following?

CNBC was cheering it on, too in “Kudlow says Friday’s GDP number is going to be ‘big’.”  This morning, things are a bit cooler in “US stocks set for gains at the open amid earnings, GDP data.”

But, near as we can figure it, the real goings-on for the market writers may have been the 900-pound gorilla this week – the Facebook mess.  Our view is social – like Hula Hoops and CB radio – has a fad burn-out problem.  As my consigliere pointed out Thursday  “What ever happened to Myspace and do they even matter anymore?”  Yes, social can bite even those who think they can out-Fox it.

You see, GDP goes up, GDP goes down.  GDP gets Revised and GDP can be put just about anywhere with enough money manipulating.

Speaking of which!  The Fed is continuing to hold M1 under 2% growth in the latest H.6 Money Stocks report.  What it MAY be telling us is that after hold M-1 negative in the March, April, May window, the annualized rate has been upped to 1.8 percent. in the 3-month window closing July 16.

This tells us the Fed is making sure the market will zoom up – and maybe to new all-time highs in August.  Bearish through we are on things in general, we are eyeing the long side for an entry next week, although as always, this is NEVER TRADING ADVICE.

OK…just struck me as a hell of a lot of hot air…so now comes the REAL data…picture first:

The “werdy-version”

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the second quarter of 2018, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent (revised).The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency

The “second” estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 29, 2018.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

This is what matters:

“The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter reflected accelerations in PCE and in exports,
a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment, and accelerations in federal government spending
and in state and local spending. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in private inventory
investment and a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports decelerated..”

With its release, the Dow futures pancaked – going flat, but we will sit back and watch the early part of next week for more clues as to what’s ahead.  And yes, we read #qanon76…which brings us to today’s…

Bash du Jour

Here we go:  Robert Mueller’s now got his team looking at Trump tweets as he tries to cobble up something to claim “obstruction” about.

By the way, if you haven’t taken the time, our “back-up consigliere” sent along a marvelous report by Congressman Louie Gohmert.  It’s a bit long, but it gives you a very clear flavor(from the republican side) of the kind of person Mueller is based on his actions in the past.  Not at all complimentary, but click there to read it.  If you haven’t before it’s quite revealing.

We would also direct you to a counter-balancing democrat-generated report should one exist. We just can’t seem to locate on.  It’s seems democrats are always long on talk and short on footnotes, facts, and details.

The reason for all this?  We’re guessing that in August or September, Mueller’s Fishing & Hooker Expedition will release what the media will assure us is a “bombshell report” that will be used by the digital uprising plotters to pivot previously clear-thinking plebes over to the Barricade Bozo’s point of view.

We expect there is likely a secret “shadow investigation” going on somewhere and one of these days we will take up to news that a non DoJ branch of government has just arrested 35 coup d tat leaders and I’ll let your mind wander through the shopping list of which names ought to be on it.  OK, 50 names then…plenty of spinsters in the dueling conspiracies these days.

I mean sell uranium, get “pre-acquitted” and “lose evidence” – gosh, all coincidence, right?  Surely the president – or military – would do…something?  It looks like a slow-motion coup attempt…

You do remember – if you scanned the Exopolitics site over the Fourth their story “QAnon links US Attorney with thousands of sealed indictments decimating the Deep State”?  40-thousand sealed indictments?  Yee gads!  Who can round up that many?  Or, will they be actioned on a priority basis as the sweeps begin?  Or…is it all hokum of the web?  Tantalizing line of inquiry, huh?

It could be – hokum – because we’ve never had the tools to massively propagate mental illness before.  Gee, ain’t the web great (and weaponized)?  Did anyone bother doing an EPA environmental impact statement on it before it went viral?  No, of course not!

No, it is NOT coincidence that we link to the Gohmert piece at this time as it also showed up in a #qanon76 post along with this Twitter post on the Rod Rosenstein impeachment crap:

” What was the point of filing impeachment art if Ryan was going to reject?  Known beforehand?  Optics.  Think logically. Could Sessions publicly challenge [RR] w/o creating a dilemma?>”

Here’s what to think through:  We MAY be in the midst of an attempted digital coup (that’s hardly a stretch) and as we laid out over the Fourth of July, it’s a left-wing Webolution using social media and already claiming its own currencies (the cryptos).  There’s just no telling how this all unwinds, but the safest place absent an insider’s seat, is to remain nonpartisan and cautious and auspicious in all dealings.

Oh, and within the law, too…Then again, who know what that line is anymore, right?  Ah, the joys of a digital uprising…Marie ClickdaNet would be pleased.  Digital guillotines and no lines!  Digital Mob Rule!  Click right up!

Nominally News

Oh, will Twitter follow FB down the tank?  See “Twitter to prioritize fixing platform over user growth, shares plunge.”  Also read “Instagram not an instant fix for ailing Facebook.”  And “Twitter beats estimates on revenue but monthly usage falls.”

This Reuters piece may be useful: “Exclusive: China eyes infrastructure boost to cushion growth as trade war escalates – sources.”  No, the Trade War problem hasn’t gone away yet despite the happy-talk this week with EU…  And you saw where China ki8lled the Qualcom deal which leads to mentioning “Qualcomm CEO in the ring alone after U.S.-China spat kills deals.”

More politics?  sure: 3 Other Women Were Paid Hush Money for Relationships With Donald Trump, Michael Avenatti Says. Tisk, Tisk…but if you were a billionaire and hot damsels…well, I don’t condone the behavior.

Crypto wars: U.S. regulator stands by decision to block Winklevoss bitcoin ETF.

Hot Air Dept.

Notice “Toyota plans to expand production, shrink cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.”

Meantime, we laugh as the Washington Post connects summer with Climate Change.

Like the old Yellow Pages positioning statement ain’t it?  “Never Stops Selling…”

Sells papers, though…and I guess that’s the point.

have a great weekend… Remember there’s now UrbanSurvival content on Saturday and Sunday…

author avatar
George Ure
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17 thoughts on “GDP: Message in Over-Hype?”

  1. George
    After today’s column I must pass along to you my method of trading. It all depends on how I put my shoes and socks on in the morning. After years of studying the market and various analysis’s predictions. If in the morning I do left sock, right sock, right shoe, left shoe The market will travel in whatever direction I am invested. Any other series of sock shoe and the market will travel against my investment. Hard to believe its that simple.
    Shortly I will be buying an island in the south pacific. I hope you can come and visit some time.

    • Beware of floating pumice islands that sink after a while. The south pacific is famous for them.

  2. The socio/democraps don’t care about money (why have your own when you can use someone else’s) and so all this negative press about Trump/economy/you-name-it, is apparently put forth to churn the market BUT since they seem so intent about spending my money – why oh why don’t they want me to make more of it? Fools….

  3. Wow! I’m already getting withdrawal from no coping section. At least I can get to work that much sooner. It’s cooler today and I have energy. Either way, change happens, and most folks don’t like it. We’ll all deal with it though.

    BTW, I’d found the Gohmert report on my own and read several pages. No time to read the rest yet, but it confirms with references my own belief that Mueller is a total sleazebag and probably should be arrested for something, at least. I downloaded it since anything can be wiped from the net without warning.

  4. George, Been following you for 8 or 10 years. Enjoyed the (too rare) economic analysis today. But then it’s Fake News this, the Deep State that — not to mention the conspiracies, the libtards, today the bashers, etc., etc. You do know Mueller is a Republican, right?

    George, take it from another old guy — you’re too old to be a cheerleader. Both figuratively and literally. With all the contortions needed to defend someone as incompetent and corrupt as Trump, you might throw out your sacroiliac. LOL. And worse, make you look goofy. Best, Mike.

  5. And yet, there’s the most important issue in the world, too often ignored by the media. Much too many people on this globe in relation to the globe’s resources.

  6. KUDOS to you, George! If your “Golem Project” inspires this kind of confidence, as demonstrated today, it may change your business model, perhaps? I’m impressed! ;-) I wish I was 70 years younger to take advantage.

  7. Has anyone wondered what all this media claptrap is accomplishing? How is all of this BS going to help the country move forward? Do any of those so called people representatives care what happens to the country? Let’s assume Trump is replaced, with who and what will their agenda be? Will it be to enrich themselves, or move the country forward? What do you think?

    When I took a first year college course in political science, it was explained that constructive criticism in an election year was to present the best platform for voters to decide which way the country should go forward. After the election, the oppositions role being to watch those in power carry out what the public voted for!

    So Trump got elected. The opposition is working 24/7 to get rid of him. Is that what voters wanted? If so, why did they vote for him in the first place? The opposition behaves as sore losers, instead of fulfilling the role political scientists claim they should be doing, they are following their own agenda. Is this what voters want from the opposition? Is this what they voted for?

    From my point of view, it has become a “slugfest.” Platform being that of “cage fighters” where the cage is government bureaucracy, and our representatives are the fighters! What feeds all of this, of course, are our taxes. We are paying for “breads and circuses” not competent stewardship of our country’s welfare. We have lost our way!

  8. Those xx thousand sealed indictments have been known for a while. I’d like to believe they all point to swamp creatures.

    However, it’s (sadly) more likely to be something much more mundane like MS13/gang/immigration related, or, my guess: cannabis related. The AG has a very clear animus toward marijuana.

  9. I’ve been watching the ‘net for the “coup de’tat” phrase. You’re about the 3rd blogger I’ve read using this phrase in the past week; think the idea is catching on, and that’s the best way to describe what we’re enduring.
    Also noted your recent use of the word “fad” which is straight outta the 50-60’s and adequately describes “social media” with a much BETTER word!

  10. Congressman Louie Gohmert’s article is eye opening! The legal examples laid out in linear fashion, backed by solid facts, shows Mueller has no moral compass. The facts Gohmert describes I think would be proof enough to force Mueller’s resignation.

    One could list each case from Congressman Jefferson to the present day case of Flynn and Trump, with the tactics used by Mueller, to prove Mueller should be fired, and disbarred. Mueller has consistently used the perjury trap to frame innocent people. Trump is correct in stating the current investigation of him is a witch hunt.

    It is sad the country I flew jets for over 28 years has morphed into an institution filled with organizations like the current FBI. Right versus wrong no longer matters. Now the rules of engagement seem to be, “The End Justifies the means”.

    Mark “Red Dog”

  11. The only thing the article of impeachment against Rosenstein did was show Sessions true colors. Other than that it was another government failure. GOP/DNC who cares it is still a government nothing burger, these raise the hopes then dash them on the rocks is

  12. Ive been hearing about these 40,000 indictments for a while mow, but never saw any path as to how it would happen. After reading this thread, that path was shown via the linked article. Now it seems possible and all being done through legitimate channels of authority, makes it even more believable.

    Of course, now I wonder how destructive the left will be…or if a media blackout will help quell any backlash. It does seem that Facebook and Twitter are under scrutiny and Zuckerberg has sold an incredible amount of his Facebook stock this year. The left is being indoctrinated into the belief system that the right is the Nazi party reincarnated, but the real truth is if these roundups of those trying to take down Trump does happen, it will be more comparable to the Nuremberg trials, but the left will forever play the professional victims. I know people on the left who refuse to hear anything contrary to the propaganda leftist news channels, that even Glenn Greenwald says have become arms of the intelligence agencies.

    • Im retracting my above comment in part….that Dr Sallah, the author of the article George Ure linked, has some strange ideas about the deep state being behind the rocket N Korea launched over Hawaii…not North Korea? He also suggest the current volcano erupting in Hawaii may be because of fracking.

      Although the article at expolitics claiming there are 40k indictments in play against deep state players, is written in a way that seems to play into current events, I have to question Dr. Sallah’s integrity. So, I’m retracting my comment in part due to that finding.

      • George, the more I read about this Dr. Sallah, the more he sounds like a wacko. Are you sure you want to link his exopolitics article on this thread or any future threads? He seems more like a CIA pysops plant, than a credible analyst of the goings on in WA DC. People like him are often times planted by the intelligence agencies, so the approved story tellers can point to him/whoever and discredit those stories outside of the official narratives. Just saying.

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