Although much over-hype accompanied the coronation of Joe-To-Save-Us this week, the stock futures were becoming skeptical by early Friday. With good reason.
Some of the tech sector high-flyers – like Tesla – were showing down 1.3 percent in the pre-opening. And worst of all, the Federal Reserve Money Stocks confessional (H.6) could be seen as indicating this whole market is overpriced by at least 25% – and maybe more like 35%. Back out inflation of the monetary base, back out fewer people working…you know, real stuff.
You’ll want to wear a lab coat as we venture into the Money Lab, now. Things tend to be messy and you don’t want any of that delusion-juice on you.
Money Culture First:
WE don’t make anything in America except money, seems like.
This is cultured in banks of indeterminate size: Obfuscated and protected. Once upon a time, bank assets belonged to Depositors. But, thanks to buying a crooked Congress, bank assets belong first to shareholders and bond holders. Your piddlin is just a claim on leftovers if there’s anything left.
We’ll have to go over the fine points of “digital bank runs” and how easy they are to solve! A line of code here….anyway, where were we? Oh yes…how much are we really making up?
We’re using the monthly data (Table 1) this week to illustrate a point:
Our point (again!) is how misleading the data is when you apply “seasonal adjustments.” Because the real Dec. to Dec. change in M1, for example was 67.36% which round to 67.4% which means using “seasonal adjustments” (December this year is the same “season” as the previous December, right?) you can delude an audience out of almost one percent.
On M2? Actual (not seasonally deluded) is 25.73% so the size of the fib is less obvious.
Now to the Point: See how the 3-month rate of rise has slowed? That means the market won’t be soaking up as much hot money. At least till they turn things up, again. But since the Fed jiggers this stuff secretly, we poor
peons pee-on’s learn after the banksters act, not in real-time. Eight-business/trading days late.
So Sorry Bitcoin!
When we clicked earlier, Bitcoin was around $31,804 bouncing. But, since we like Elliott wave analysis, we offer a word of caution when people talk about jumping in just yet. As y0u can see, we have seen what may be a top…
If you don’t subscribe to Peoplenomics (shame!) you won’t get the rest of the projections. But, since Wave 1 down is often followed by a 1.5X wave 3…well, let’s just say a buy zone may be down in the 20’s somewhere. But, we’re always surprised. If we could just do MegaMillions as well…
The spreadsheet downloadable from the Master Index pages on PN.
Dow Futures Suck
Environmental costs are going up. Oil pipelines are being whacked… and on financial channels like CNBC this morning, the big talk is? Well, to generalize it: What else will Joe be putting his ExO pen on next? <More worker’s rights? You think business wants that???>
Sure, get the Covid paper…but from the mahogany foxhole crowd, more benefits for people sure sounds like (gulp!) higher taxes to come… (We did tell you this, remember?)
Somewhere in here, CNBC must know something we don’t about buying a silly lottery ticket: The Mega Millions jackpot is $970 million. What to know before you buy a ticket. What do they mean…what to know? Buy ticket, lose money…pretty simple. Lotteries are a tax on people who can’t handle statistics.
…makes the perpetuation of the Lotto tax on stupid people possible, though.
Yes, this is the same lying media that has covered up the vastly under-reported antifa riots in Seattle and Portland on Joe Day. ‘Enough is enough:’ Businesses call for Seattle city leaders to denounce riot damage.”
The PNW commie uprisers caught police in Portland flatfooted as well. But now the debate is over whether those were antifa-clones of the right, or lefty thugs. Not that it makes much difference. “Some Portland marchers express regrets about attack on Dem HQ, anti-Biden graffiti: report.”
You will please observe the language of a lying press on matters of insurrection: If a group is considered left it’s marchers are involved in peaceful protest. In a more honest age of journalism, rioters, insurrection, thugs, and hoodlums. But can’t offend the f**kheads, now, can we?
No, of course not. Why, they provide all the eyeballs to monetize this shitshow!
Just Getting Tuned Up
Wearing a lab coat was a good idea, huh? Don’t let me drip vitriol on you…
ZeroHedge sees it about right in Futures Slide As Euphoria Fizzles On Renewed Lockdown Fears.
You see, a buddy of mine who’s a doc and I were talking this week. We were comparing notes on when we would hit the 4-million dead mark here in the US from the rona. Sometime early next year. Presidents Day a year from now.
Sick Math & Movies
I’ll make this simple for you – because people hate math. But it gives me a chance to huff the dry-marker, so bear with.
Let’s call the 40o,000 mark January 19. So dead doubles in four months.
Which means in late April, if we do this again? 800,000. And then in late July 1.6 million will have departed. Then, by December? 3.2 million….
Sure the vaccinations will work, but the variants just keep on coming. And when one gets through, here comes the vax and re-vax….
Still, all this leads to our terrible punchline-headline: “The Bond film ‘No Time to Die’ is delayed again.” But, of course.
Bet me a beer on whether Top Gun: Maverick hits the July 2 release date?
Judah Tyreman sent me an update on how his viral video experiments have been going: You may find this interesting:
(Not sure how legible that will be – we use a fair amount of picture compression so phone-freaks (jittery and hyper-caffeinated by nature) won’t get anxious and click away…)
Lab Coats Off Now
Lots going on around the ranch today:
Peoplenomics will be digging into economic cycles tomorrow. (Yes, and the latest Bitcoin outlook).
The Saturday Gourmet eats from the Ure Family Cookbook – a dandy Pizza article is coming a week from Saturday contributed by a reader…
Sunday some electronica – got the laser version of the Lamp of the Ark all set to light off today.
\And with Dow futures (finally!) down a fair bit, -250’ish – we may exit our short position but all that in time, I guess.
Write when you get rich,