FED Panics: Synthetic Depression Looms

by

Our “Big View” is scary:  A “Synthetic Depression” is being rolled out.  Not trying to make you paranoid, but we are following the data….

We think sometimes you don’t try to save all the financial Big Players, as the IMF planning to piss-away a Trillion Dollars which makes no sense.  Unless, of course, you don’t believe in “free markets.,”  Free when convenient, perhaps, boys?  Also: Stories using the term “bazooka” related to stupidity like this, should be taken with sodium chloride.  There’s a quadrillion of deriv atives to blow up  – do the math. A Trillion is Kleenex money.

Now let’s move to a REAL look down the crapper.  This is based on early futures (6 AM Central).  And yes, looks near-enough lock-limit down, to us: 10% down today, maybe?

Markets in Europe are being hammered today, as well. The British market was down more than 6%, the German down more than 7% and France was sucking the big one falling 8.77% 10.72% at mid-session and to within spitting distance of a 9%  12% decline.  So goes panic, huh?

Fed Panics to Zero

As we have been saying since January, any global pandemic is a great opportunity to reset financial markets.  And, as you can read in the Fed “panic statement” from last night, the financial guys are doing just what we expect the Trump campaign will have to do in the fall:  Issue mea culpa‘s and blame Left Field Events:

“The coronavirus outbreak has harmed communities and disrupted economic activity in many countries, including the United States. Global financial conditions have also been significantly affected. Available economic data show that the U.S. economy came into this challenging period on a strong footing. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market remained strong through February and economic activity rose at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although household spending rose at a moderate pace, business fixed investment and exports remained weak. More recently, the energy sector has come under stress. On a 12?month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

“Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The effects of the coronavirus will weigh on economic activity in the near term and pose risks to the economic outlook. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals. This action will help support economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation returning to the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective.

Even with the rally Friday, however, you can see in our comparison of the present market behaviors that we really are on a track that is eerily similar to how 1929 played out:

Still Replaying 1929

Front edge of the Second Depression, I’m afraid, by the look of it.

It’s bad and is on track to get much, much worse.  In fact, in our work, there is a case to be argued that as far down as this morning’s opening will take us, we MAY only be  less than halfway into this decline:

Synthetic Depression?

Put on your conspiracy hat, for a minute, and let’s look at the data.

The stock market hit its all-time high when?  February 19th.

Yet, what  else was going on – macro stuff most people don’t think about?

Well, for one, Donald Trump was yelling at the Fed to lower rates.  Did he know something in advance?  There was already action in the bond market that had players on edge.  But above everything, there was The Big Ugly that no one was talking about (and still aren’t):

“What  could possibly drive Global Growth after the Market Peak?”

Two metrics here:  Velocity of Money at M2 was (and still is) cratering.  As you can see in this chart from the St. Louis Fed, money has never been “turning over” so slowly.  1.425 is the lowest velocity has EVER been –  including in the Great Depression!

While – on a “normal” or “sane” planet, huge government debt – far in excess of current income would set off runaway inflation, we have gone down the same economic path that Robert Mugabe took Zimbabwe down with “Modern Monetary Theory.”  The problem is, when MMT blows up, you end up with hyperinflation. So a reasonable fear runs off in that direction.  Gold bugs may get a laugh yet – it any survive.

But, like Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and other failed socialist governmental models, the death-knell of MMT is the problem of  convertibility.  In other words, does the “paper” stand for “good delivery?”

Don’t know if you have priced toilet paper of masks lately, but there’s a case this  could turn into the leading edge of hnyperinflation and if so, it will spread to food and all other commodities.  If you need it, watch prices closely.

The MainStream is already hinting that this is in the wings.

The  Washington Post  sundicate ran the story this weekend telling us where to look:  “Companies that feed America brace for labor shortages amid worry about restocking stores.”  You remember how supply and demand work, of course?  Scarcity drives prices higher…

Second Macro Problem: Then there’s the problem with underlying debasement of the Nation’s money.  A constitutional arguement could be made that the Congress in 1913 acted illegally ceding creation of money to the (non) Federal Reserve.  (I happen to agree, but that horse left the barn long before I was born and that was 71-years ago…)

What we are in now is the workout explained in a paper of collegue of mine and I worked up in 2001:  Essentially, we posited that a nation’s currency could NOT be infinitely watered down (and loaded with debt) because at some point, people would lose faith in it.  The Stand for Delivery problem and compounding of debt.

To be sure,, the whole Bitcoin and crypto madness has been a useful indicator of collapse.  I told you in 2019 that BTC would blast down to under $4,000 (my  consigliere figures under $2,000) because it reveals how much of “the happy-talk” people are willing to swallow.

The answer this morning is $4,555…and falling.

The Global Financial Criminals would look at their $250-billion crypto swindle, they’d look at the cratering of economic turnover, they’d consider the lack of demand to drive growth, and they would consider the long-term implicates of loading “money” down with “debt.”

You likely don’t run the numbers (this is what  Peoplenomics is all about…keeping ahead of the curve on this stuff) but as our readers know, the item that cost one dollar in 1913 cost $25.88 in 2019.  So with 2% inflation, we could round it to costing about $26.40 today.

People tend to forget math – to use the numbers to gain perspective.  But what happens wehen you divide $26.40 into 1?  .037878.

“OK, so what?”

Slide the zeroes:  The US dollar only stands for 3.78% of its initial purchasing power it held in 1913.

Even if we aren’t noticing, the rest of the world is.  And that’s why the Fed is spending a Trillion Dollars  buying our own paper.  Sound familiar?

Read deeply on Charles Ponzi’s schemes… Wiki it and you’ll learn:

“Born and raised in Italy, he became known in the early 1920s as a swindler in North America for his money-making scheme. He promised clients a 50% profit within 45 days or 100% profit within 90 days, by buying discounted postal reply coupons in other countries and redeeming them at face value in the United States as a form of arbitrage.[1]:1[2] In reality, Ponzi was paying earlier investors using the investments of later investors. While this type of fraudulent investment scheme was not originally invented by Ponzi, it became so identified with him that it now is referred to as a “Ponzi scheme”. His scheme ran for over a year before it collapsed, costing his “investors” $20 million. “

The difference between Charles Ponzi and the Federal Reserve?

Well, Ponzi was a con man and swindler.  The Federal Reserve is merely acting-out the moneychanger role from the free-lunchers in Congress who spend more than this “Great Nation” takes in as income. Have for decades.  Deficit spending is the road to socialism, or does the Left Wing school curriula not mention this, anymore?

All of which gets us to a critical-thinking crossroads:  With the end of growth, the pendency of the Manufacturer’s Resource  wars a given, with money not standing (as it once did) for “good delivery” and needing COVER   – a scapegoat – someone or something  to BLAME, what would the powers that be do?

I have a five letter suspicioun:  Wuhan.

End Game Options

We have a number of possible long-term outcomes from all this:

  • Wuhan “burns out” and life goes back to normal but markets are halved.  Recovery is slow and takes years.
  • Wuhan “burns out” but recover doesn’t happen – and either the U.S. or China, or Russia decides to become adventuresome.  World War III erupts.
  • Wuhan – as posited by Dave Hodges of The Common Sense Show – is designed by enemies of America to drive us into Civil War (as in .mil training exercise Jade Helm 15-style).
  • Wuhan does not “burn out” and becomes a long-term research project to “find a cure” while a devious “maintenance dose” of some miracle drug would be required to remain alive, thus giving the PowersThatBe control over everyone on Earth.
  • Wuhan does not “burn out” and within a generation, global population is reduced by 75%, or more.  And we go into the history books as a kind of latter-day Atlantis.
  • The “mushrooms go up” as nuclear powers blame one another for CV19…

All unthinkable, unknowable, highly speculative, but nothing can be totally ruled out yet.

All we can do is connect dots, run projections, and remind everyone that the 1 percent is really the 1/8th of 1 percent and none of us will be spared whatever dynamics are in play.

Still, there are areas of good news to savor…well, one, anyway:

NYC School Walk-Back

The would-be criminal Bill De Blasio was forced by public ourage at his  verging of war crimes decision to keep NY Schools open.  So, he’s walked it back (but in our book, he’s still an idiot).

Details about how the NY lockdown is coming along may be found in the remnants of the  NY Times here.  Harsh locking down bars, though, especially if you have small-caliber politicians who would drive any sane person to drink…

Change Rate/Projections

Change Rates first:

Main thing here is that when we had a smaller than expected 9,000 increase yesterday, it seemed likely to get “caught up” which it does in today’s data.

Cases (globally) outllook?

Easy bet to make:  1-million global cases by Tax Day.

For the local view, take the county you live in (say Maricopa, Arizona) and look up it’s population (4.307,033) and divide by the world population (7,640,000,000).  In our example, this is 5.637477748691099e-4 which times today’s cases (169,387) means there may be 95.49 cases in the Phoenix area…assuming spread is semi-even – which  it isn’t.

In the Shorts

Life goes on.  Hat tip to  Fortune for How swing-state economies have performed since the 2016 election in 6 maps.

And did you see where Apple fined $1.2 billion by French antitrust regulators over anti-competitive supplier deals.

Bill Gates resigns from boards of Microsoft and Berkshire Hathaway. Hmmm…Mr. Vaccine?  We’ll lass on RC-1, thanks.

And stupid is as stupid does: Japan going ahead with Summer Olympics despite serious coronavirus concerns.

On that note, let’s see if the market drops 10% today, shall we?

NY Fed Repo Depot in with $148+ billion today:   That’s about like $993 for every worker in America…where’sa my ViseGrips?  Where’s my crack pipe…

Write when you get rich,

george@ure.net

65 thoughts on “FED Panics: Synthetic Depression Looms”

  1. I stood up and clapped at my monitor .. my mate George nails it again .. great facts and style .. money always finds the best home .. its been in shorts and buried underground ..banks are roulette we will loose a few .. which ones depends on the ball drop .there is now a new home for money .. gold .. yep its nearly time .. the fools at the FED are out of the way .. went early .. thanks fellas .. minus next time .. thanks George

    • “I stood up and clapped at my monitor .. my mate George nails it again .. ”

      … and I had tears in my eyes, because we’re doing it to ourselves (w/o recognizing it! ;-)) and your mate is a major contribitor, IMHO.

      • the truth George tells facts … its a sadly diminishing trait today.. nah George will never ever be gagged .. you want the real story come here .. if you don’t want to hear it .. give up but don’t bag George .ive seen em all and know em all .. you want stories go elsewhere

      • What I tried to communicate is that we’re drowning ourselves voluntarily with (imho much useless information on a personal leve!) instead of each looking at ourself and our immediate neighbors.

        I cannot help anything around the world and knowing their calamities may only cause worry for myself ;-). So, I’ve visited some foreign cities on Ytoub on account of raining in my town and I cannot walk my 2 miles today.

        May you all be safe, and this too will pass.

  2. I’m going with number 2, and I’m heavily leaning toward David Hodges’ view. I read his article, and it came very close to my view and is in fact scarier. See my work on the Second Thrasybulus.

    That would be enemies foreign and domestic.

    • “I’m going with number 2, and I’m heavily leaning toward David Hodges’ view. ”

      That’s what my opinion is to…. in three years theres been what..11 or 12 false flag events. Then this pops out of nowhere..

      That’s scary…

  3. Why George a socialist government is little different than state socialism which was set in motion in 1980,socialism didn’t bring about this mess but a parasitic form of capitalism did,trillions spent/debt to shore up the banking business sector at the expense of the working class.This has been a one trick pony show from the git-go which was wall street,and no cutting rates wouldn’t have mattered at all but now like ole flapper Joe the pony has forgot his act.The only good part is that there will be a lot fewer billionairs to buy the politicians,not that they couldn’t be bought for a lot less money but like anything else they want whatever the market will bear.So let it come its way overdue and maybe just maybe the people will finally wake up and take the country back again,but I wouldn’t bet on it,for as my father said ‘the American people will go for anything as long as they think they are getting something for nothing..!!!

    • Why you would blame “State Socialism” on Jimmy Carter is beyond me. It began with Roosevelt (that’d be Teddy, Not Franklin) when he allowed J.P. Morgan’s cabal to bail out the United States, then stuffed an election, to allow Wilson in…

  4. All you hear from the commie Dems in NY is nationalize everything and calling for the mobilization of the military which is way over the line any rational steps they have taken so far to slow the spread of this. Not yet buttercups. There are still a lot of us out here who know we can beat this using our common sense and brains. Take care of ourselves and help our neighbors especially those who can’t help themselves. If you hear “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” Politely tell them to pound sand and move on.

    When you drain the swamp and find yourself up to your ass in alligators, stay cam and reload.

    73

    • Yeah, I, too, noticed the Governors who’ve never read the 10th Amendment.

      Dammit, we’re a confederation of 50 States and a handful of Territories. The FedGov’s job is to keep invaders off of our turf, maintain communications through a system of roads and highways, and keep our confederated territories from fighting with each other over laws and trade. C’mon Governors — Do your frickin’ job or find someone who can, don’t wet yourself and ask D.C. for a Depends. That’s not their job!

  6. Ok, I will try to figure that out the Skype thing. Holy cow the Fed throws 1.7 trillion and the the S&P still drops 11%!!! Like throwing a baseball at a freight train to slow it down. Its amazing to watch.

  7. “Bill Gates resigns from boards of Microsoft and Berkshire Hathaway.”

    Reportedly to “focus on climate change…”

    I’ll believe Gates is sane and honest, if he never mentions “carbon” again, and if he shells out $50bln to clean up the air in China and India, or if he has contracted an intractable, and fatal malady.

    Otherwise, there’s an ulterior motive — Sorry Bill, your timing is seriously suspect, and you just pulled my focus.

  8. I’m sitting here watching Cuomo talk about taking action since the federal government isn’t in a “regional” way and it kind of hit me… Remember John Titor talking about how the US was broken up into regions (I think 5), we’re seeing northeast carving out with Cuomo, the media is marking Ohio as a leader of the midwest, California is taking action so assume they would be a leader in the west…

    Just seemed really intereting

  9. Rumor has it Washington State is gonna be the first state close its borders. Then California. Technically that is succeeding from the Union. Or stage one of the process. Nobody gets in and nobody gets out.

    I thought California would be first. In the bigger picture you are seeing the systematic break down of not Only the United States but the European Union with Germany, France, Italy, Spain closing their boarders. Poland and Czechoslovakia are closing their boarders as well.

    So much for building a wall with Mexico. Apparently California is all for it now. Or will be in a week or two.

    I’m going to conduct a private study. I have to figure out a convenient time to measure daily the flow of Big rigs. Perhaps from 1200 to 1pm daily. That or I have to get up earlier. A one metric.

    • Andy,
      This is an entirely different set of circumstances. Closing state borders for the sake of spreading this disease to the entire country is what is necessary. Remember, we are a destination state for many vacationers too amongst other things. We are a destination for business travelers as well. That ingress/egress has to stop for the betterment of the entire country.

      As far as our take in borders….I have said this a zillion times. It’s the lobbyists for AgCorps that encourage open orders more than anyone. Our work visa system is so broken. Cargill, Dole, DelMonte and the thousands of wine, produce and livestock companies have to take drastic and most likely, illegal measures during harvest to keep things on track. This has been going on for decades and swept under the rug in just about every state that relies on low pay/high production immigrants to ramp up the food supply chain. The problem is..many escape and stay…which is mostly swept too. That’s less Big AG has to import next harvest.

      • Lol. Welcome my friend to “shelter in place” restrictions.

        I just saw Santa Clara county just told every one not to leave there houses. Damn glad I didnt take that $40 an hour job up by ya. Would have breen nice to have lunch though.

        Another time Mark.

        If there is one.

        Mexico is looking pretty good right now.

      • 3000 INFECTED AND 30 DEATHS…the FLU has killed 15000 in the USA this year…nothing was shut down for that…never was…soooooooooooo BS is all around us…a

      • Sh!t Bryce, I dont have any of my Prepper stuff. I dont even have my guns. I just loaded my car with some clothes and hauled ass. I’m right where I’m supposed to be, but I dont know where I’m supposed to go from here. So, I’m waiting. And I know I will know when I’m supposed to know. The exact hour.

        Ugh. I dont even have my Berkey Filter. I’m sitting in a holding pattern. I’m right where I’m supposed to be. All points and signs say we are gonna have a major EQ soon on top of all this. I dont know where. I’m super tired. knowing the future is heavy.

        And I dont know everything. I dont know what to do with me. Lol

        Ugh.

      • Andy- if you have any disposable cash, go to a sporting goods or army surplus store and pick up some basic survival gear. At the rate you are going, you might want to get a backpack to carry everything in. Buy the sort of basic stuff you would use to put together an INCH (I’m Never Coming Home) bag. Get an MSR filter and something to carry water in. I know you have internet service, otherwise you wouldn’t be posting. Do a little reading on the internet, and think about picking up a driving gig nearby. Maybe you are supposed to figure out what comes next.

  10. Hahahah my friend just bought a house up by Darrington Washington on 20 acres, for 50% of the asking price and got 0.0025% fixed interest!!! 1/4 of 1 %. Place was a rental. People signed the paperwork the next day. Her husband got a brand new 2020 F250 Diesel zero down, zero interest at $50 above dealer invoice included a full tank of Desiel. Hahahhahaha! WOW!

    I was just at Walmart and you can buy a 60 inch 4k TV for $99!!!

    Hahahahahahhah!

    • “I was just at Walmart and you can buy a 60 inch 4k TV for $99!!!”

      Dam Andy I’m heading to walmart.. I hope they have that deal here..

  11. George,
    Ah, yes, the national debt.
    Unfortunately, the R’s couldn’t wait to load up the national debt with well over $2 trillion in good times when they got the solo power. Yes, even Rand Paul. (Yes, even Papa Reagan who tripled the national debt). Makes the D’s look like rank amateurs, when they try to spend on dumb things like . . . hungry kids, sick workers, infrastructure. You know, things that actually help Main St. And now we’ve squandered our Fiscal stimulus just when we need it most. Best, Mike.

    • Good article on Strategic Culture this morning that ties into that,deals with the depression of 1929 its causes the corruption of the bankers and wall street which looted the country causing the depression,its ties with England the Bush family and the normal group of thieves and crooks that inhabit those places, and all the rules and regulations that were put into place to prevent that from happening again,regulations that your dear congressmen removed for a few hundred benjamans making them as corrupt as those that paid them./But back then they had some patriots that stood up and did battle with them,I would like to think that we had a few still with us today that wasen’t blindside with party retoric,and that’s the question that begs to be answered.We will see if any step forth, men of the people instead of the special groups,but yet I doubt it.!!!

    • Mike, when are you going to say something new in your comments? You say the same things over and over and over and over, merely changing a few words in each posting. Your responses must be automated! Do you sit on a deck with your morning coffee and punch a key to send them? Try something original for a change.

  12. The idiot in Chief said this yesterday..

    “ There’s a very contagious virus, it’s incredible, it’s something we have tremendous control over I think very importantly the young people have good health, and groups of people just are not strongly affected, elderly people that are .not well or not well in certain respects are uh really a very dangerous group we have to watch them we have to protect them very much we have to really watch over them and protect them, they are very vulnerable.” -Trump 03/15 in WH briefing on #CoronaVirus”

    I don’t even know what he said. Worst leader/communicator in the history of the human race. He makes America more panicked..because nothing that comes out of his mouth is truthful. It’s all BS.. We are all concerned and the only person I want to hear at this point is Dr. Anthony Fauci. Nobody else. He states the truth in a way that gives people good information and solace.

    Meanwhile…we have a perfect storm in the Bay Area… freak cold front with heavy rains, temps in the 40’s, windy and just the type of conditions that lowers our immunity. People are lined up at 6:00am at stores…when truck deliveries arrive just to gets supplies. Very scary times.

    • I want to add that I am so grateful to have had the pleasure of reading and being educated by a true patriot in George Ure. Your information that you have provided us all in the decade or so of reading you has helped make me and my wife so much more prepared in this time of crisis. We are experiencing a bit more restrictive measures in the Bay Area due to our elevated cases. We have resctricted any gatherings of 20 or more. Schools are closed, bars and restaurants are closed to the public, but can deliver if drivers and cooks are screened and healthy. Of course, all auditoriums of any kind are shuttered. I had to go pick something up I left at my office early this morning and Highway 101…one of the busiest stretches of rush hour traffic in the country was empty during rush hour.

      But my wife and I are prepared…my older kids that live on their own are as well…and all thanks to George…one of the biggest contributors to immunity suppression is stress…Because we are hunkered down with a survivalists list of items…that stress is not an issue. Thanks again George!

      • Mark, I hope there are others as savvy about prepping as you. San Fran is one of the places I fear for, because of the high-tech junkets and the high Asian middle class and LMC population. Wuhan is both a tech and a cultural center. Who knows how many tourists and business travelers came and went before the virus became “a thing?”

        I suspect your business will actually improve, at least in the short term. People will want the kind of insulation, only money can buy. When your bank account fattens, invest it, and do so wisely….

  13. Yo Chief,

    U see or hear any military helo’s flying about the east Texas area? Wonder if they are up and about Crawford area yet?

    Cowinydinks abound in this COVID 19 phys-op:

    – overlay the map mil base quarantine centers with heat map of the “sealed indictments” map tight match..hmmm.

    30K US Troops arrive Europe – no masks to be seen as entire continent is locking down.

    Major nationwide sweep/operation last week taking down 100’s/1000’s of Cartel operatives, crickets in news in regards too.

    Russia kills OPEC last week – creating Financial Chaos the likes of which the world has never seen before..tickicktick KABOOM goes the Derivatives – taking down how many Hedge Funds and Banks?

    And now we hear Staff members at the Bank of International Settlements is Infected with many others Exposed – ohh cry this deplorable a friggin river.

    You did see the STORM in window behind the POTUS during his nationwide address? Did you notice color of his Tie?

    Damm good thing I dont believe in COWINKYDINKS!

    Why it is was Yellow and what color Flag was flown on ships that were CLEAR of VIRUS

  14. George,
    Your change rate and projections posts a whole bunch of facts in the center of hysteria. With these two charts we can all monitor the quantitative spread of CV, death rate and projections. When this virus burns out we will know the facts immediately. Good job!

  15. “Don’t know if you have priced toilet paper of masks lately, but there’s a case this could turn into the leading edge of hnyperinflation”

    My grand daughter works at wally world.. LOL LOL at the checkouts they have a bottle of hand sanitizer.. that they use because they deal with money and everyone knows money is dirty.. anyway.. a customer came in and the dollar bottle of hand sanitizer was less than half full.. and a customer offered her seventy five dollars if she would sell it to him.. my response was.. you do know what I would have said honey..

    SOLD….. to the man with the money.. LOL LOL LOL..

    what I find hilarious is there is still denatured alcohol in the paint isle.. LOL LOL LOL by the gallon..
    and how many signs do you see with the lettering.. E-85 two dollars a gallon LOL LOL now of course that does have some petroleum products in it approximately 15 percent so it will dry your hands out.. that is why you would have to use aloe to thicken it.. LOL LOL..

    https://e-liquid-recipes.com/handsanitizer

    speaking about inflation..

    https://artnaturals.com/unscented-hand-sanitizer-6-pack.html?remoteLinkId=389017214796&remoteCampaignId=6774668350&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIzJK__Luf6AIVDdbACh1jcwGgEAYYASABEgI6OvD_BwE

    • eat oranges and then make orange oil from the peelings…. LOL… same thing to..

      I have been making orange oil cleaners for years.. it is so simple to do.. the same with making vinegar

      • ‘Same here. FWIW most of the online “hand sanitizer” recipes I’ve seen (Ex: “Take one cup of rubbing alcohol and add a half-cup of aloe vera gel and presto! Hand Sanitizer!”)

        No.

        A hand sanitizer (Purell is the standard from which all should be compared) should kill in excess of 99% of germs and virii within the few seconds it exists, before the alcohol evaporates. To do so it must be above 72% alcohol, by volume (Purell is 75% BTW.)

        Denatured alcohol is generally 97% ethyl alcohol (C2H5OH) and 3% wood alcohol (CH3OH), but 100% alcohol.

        The hand sanitizer I made for my daughter a few days ago (she was locked into a weekend conference) was without aloe, because my aloe supply grew legs since the last time I used it. However, just so’s ya knows, my usual formula is:

        22oz denatured alcohol
        3oz distilled water
        4oz aloe gel
        3oz 99% isopropyl alcohol
        ½oz 3% hydrogen peroxide
        ½oz glycerine

        which yields a quart (32oz) of a slightly stinky Purell clone.

        I’ve been known to add a few drops of orange, lemon, or spearmint oil to kill the methanol aroma, but I don’t really care to do so…

      • “Am I the only one thinking EverClear?”

        NO.. your not the only one.. I just don’t want them to raid the Liquor stores LOL….. I would rather have them run out and get a gallon of E-85 denatured alcohol from the gas station or the denatured alcohol from the paint department and leave the everclear and vodka to those that want to consume it.. LOL LOL LOL LOL…

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpUNv5uTNLI

  16. The gym this morning was empty. The seniors aerobics class had 4 people & there are usually 30 or more women. Got a prime parking spot. There is always a bright spot somewhere.

  17. It’s a structural cascade issue. Most states are scrambling to streamline access to unemployment compensation. Unemployment benefits will run out by summer.

    The summer seasonal jobs won’t be here. I’d say the entire 2020 summer tourism/sports/concert season is gone. That means next Christmas is a bust.

    There will be some form of UBI by Autumn. Since it’s Trump everyone is going to go along.

  18. Mr Narrator –

    When are U going to tell us about your triple levered Bear ETF winnings? Inquiring minds want know ..

    SPY strangle saved coots bacon – again. Expect Crypto exchanges to be shutdown soonly – as 99.% of all Price discovery action is Hypothecated Derivitives – just like prices on COMEX

    Glimmer of Hope = 1 Infected Staff member at Bank of International Settlements w/9 others exposed..so far.. Oh cry the coot a friggin river..boohoo.

    Obviously not a critical thinker, as I dont understand the human bodies Inflammatory response to threats like broken bones, bad nutrition or a VIRUS like COVID19 – u know the KungFlu.

    But hey maybe all these many years later maybe science can come up with a Vaccine – just like they did for SARS 1 – oh wait – hold the front door!

    We do not have a vaccine for SARS1 or MERS or HIV..No worries- I’m sure sharper minds than the coots already have this current Virus figured out, at least in Hawaii..

    Local state Governor closed all the Commonwealths Liquor Stores starting Tuesday.

    So the coot, Mrs coot and a daughter coot took quick road trip to neighboring states GIANT Discount Liquor store – we got there 20 minutes after Opening – it was a madhouse – parking lot was clusterF, in store was clusterF, check out lines non stop ringing up sales. No worries we are “hardened” and venture out with confidence.

    Already had liquor supplies stocked in (prepped) but “emergency” booze shopping was fun, exciting, plus we got to talk others we normally would never have had a conversations with – its bringing folks together.
    The coot is well aware that Jim Beam & Makers Mark are domestic – but Mrs. coot likes the foreign beverages – and French/Austrian Wines are going to be in limited supply, as are good German/Czech beers.
    .

    • Dear Mr Coot… How many people ‘recover’ from HIV on their own? None? Correct! Therefore the body does not produce antibodies for HIV. Now…. do people ‘recover’ from COVID-19 on their own? YES… some do! HOW?? Because their bodies produce antibodies to overcome the virus and they get well. THEREFORE… antibodies and vaccines for the COVID-19 are possible… QED. Stay tuned… and learn. It’s coming.

      Meanwhile… critical thinkers may have followed the link to ‘Brutal Truth about COVID-19’ provided by Oilman2 a few days back. Science knows that adequate levels of Selenium in the body fluids prevent an ‘envelope virus’ such as coronavirus from infecting a cell… giving virtual immunity. A simple selenium supplement of 220mcg daily, and NOT MORE, is adequate protection. I have a friend who practices this and has not had a cold or flu in 25 years.

      And now I’m sure I have started a nationwide run on selenium supplements.

    • Comrade,

      The Western flock is being led astray. The Chinese Communist Party has published a third instalment of battle in The War against covid-19. It’s in mandarin on The Party’s website “qstheory.cn”. Look for “Wuhan Night Scene” then “”Cooperation between Chinese and Western Medicine inside and outside the ICU”.

      My reading of it is that there are a pair of Chinese medicines being used separately with Western medicines on Chinese covid-19 patients. According to the report, the tincture makes patients’ lungs “inhospitable” to the virus.

      The Chinese claim to have offered the curative assistance to the West.

      As an aside, one of the Chinese doctors who was at the forefront of the medical team in Wuhan is on loan until April from his post at the institute in Stockholm which awards the Nobel Prize in medicine.

  19. You must have felt like a man with the Cassandra syndrome the past few years George.

    Thanks for what you have done to wake a few of us up, get us into cash and stocked up with essentials before the SHTF. My 78th birthday is next week will be spent hunkered down with my wife and a bottle of the best wine from my cellar.

    My grandson is an NHL player in the US and he has been told to pack his bags and head back here to Canada. I am not sure the season will even start next fall.

    We are not in Kansas anymore Dorothy.

    Hope to see my 79th .

  21. I didn’t write this, but sure wish I did. ??

    WHAT IF…

    There is so much fear, and perhaps rightfully so, about COVID-19.

    And, what if…

    If we subscribe to the philosophy that life is always working out for us, that there is an intelligence far greater than humans at work…

    That all is interconnected.

    What if…

    the virus is here to help us?

    To reset.
    To remember.

    What is truly important.

    Reconnecting with family and community.

    Reducing travel so that the environment, the skies, the air, our lungs all get a break.

    Parts of China are seeing blue sky and clouds for the first time in forever with the factories being shut down.

    Working from home rather than commuting to work (less pollution, more personal time).

    Reconnecting with family as there is more time at home.

    An invitation to turn inwards — a deep meditation — rather than the usual extroverted going out to self-soothe.

    To reconnect with self — what is really important to me?

    A reset economically.

    The working poor. The lack of healthcare access for over 30 million in the US. The need for paid sick leave.

    How hard does one need to work to be able to live, to have a life outside of work?

    And, washing our hands — how did that become a “new” thing that we needed to remember. But, yes, we did.

    The presence of Grace for all.

    There is a shift underway in our society — what if it is one that is favorable for us?

    What if this virus is an ally in our evolution?

    In our remembrance of what it means to be connected, humane, living a simpler life, to be less impactful/ more kind to our environment.

    An offering from my heart this morning. Offered as another perspective. Another way of relating to this virus, this unfolding, this evolution.

    It was time for a change, we all knew that.

    And, change has arrived.

    What if…

    • “If we subscribe to the philosophy that life is always working out for us, that there is an intelligence far greater than humans at work…That all is interconnected.”

      working the floors in medical units.. I absolutely believe that . god exists and that there is someone that is looking over you.. I put my whole life and faith in our heavenly father.. I get razzed about it.. because I should look at this from a logical point of view.. but.. I have had to many weird happenings that to me proves the existance..
      What if.. it was for our own good as a species.. read the book stew wrote http://www.theageofdesolation.com .. it is great and really inciteful.. read the predictions of Nostradamus, and the others mother shipton etc.. the georgia guidestones.. What if.. the virus is just to eliminate the evil..sort of like sodom and gomorah.
      You can’t turn on a tv or read any news without seeing stories about the evil mankind does to one another.. Bad News sells.. our advertisements.. filled with sub’s.. many dealing with the depravities of mankind for sales.. we have our golden idol.. money, greed death hate thy neighbor act like s sociopath to get what you want…..what if Dante’s dream of Purgatory was actually a vision of the what is..
      I am putting my faith to guide us in our heavenly father.. and if he whispers in my ear.. help this one or help that one.. I will be the first one on the line to do just that.. My life will continue the way it has.. one day at a time..

  22. Any news on some big player of side

    My bet is on the big bank in Germany

    I am thinking the Federal Reserve suspects somebody big will fail

    Also think we will have replay of the Virus cycle for Halloween

  23. What exactly is a synthetic depression? A fake one? Coined terms are flashy but I’m not getting it.

  24. ‘Went to my favorite “farm and home” store tonight. I bought a bottle of bleach, a package of TP, and a tub of Clorox Wipes, and got my receipt time/date stamped, just in-case others don’t believe it.

    While I was there I noticed the firearms department had moved ammo from behind the counter to two islands in the secondary midway, and shelves were fairly well-stripped (If’fn you had a .243 or .35-20 you were in luck. If not, not so much…) I’ve a friend who hired on as an area manager last year, so I asked her if they were getting out of the “gun business.” Her reply: “No, they are running hard, today, both guns and ammo.” I asked “Why?” She said “It’s this stupid virus thing. They bought all the toilet paper on the planet, now they’re buying guns because they think someone’s going to steal their stuff!”

    My comment in-retreat was: “OMG, I can see it now: 600,000 little old men and punk Millenials, armed with rifles and sitting on giant piles of TP…”

    That was probably her first laugh of the day…

  25. Corona Virus is all around us…YOU must OBEY the government for your own good…ALL gatherings are BANNED…all restaurants and schools are to be closed..OBEY….the government…this is for your own good…100 Billion dollars has been allotted to fight this virus… the government will SPEND this Money as they see fit…NOT for your good….this virus will be another hoax played on a dumbed down nation….and they blame China on this one as blaming Russia has worn thin….

    • Certainly possible d… Isnt this the new normal of the past 20 years? A continuous diet of fear panic and prejudice and if you don’t hop on that express you’re endangering others or a conspiracy theorist or a useful idiot.

      The 24-7-365 news is out of control.

  26. HAWAII COUNT NOW 8 CASES. And we have ‘community spread’ in Honolulu… as I predicted.

    And still the cruise ships come a-docking.

  28. Checked my investments this evening. No appreciable change. My thanks to yourself, Prechter and the entourages.
    We may have an indication by this weekend if plague measures are having any effect. Numbers have been progressing at about 2**3 per week. If we pass 16,000 infected in the US this weekend, then measures to date are a failure. If numbers slow, the question will remain as to whether testing capacity is being exceeded again. A continuing geometric progression will bring hell on earth to a neighborhood that looks like yours, very quickly.
    Best to have your personal preps at a stopping point by this weekend. I expect a strategic reassessment to occur in that time frame. No crystal ball tonight. I find it hard to deal with these numbers.

    • “No appreciable change. My thanks to yourself, Prechter and the entourages”

      I should have told a friend of mine about Urbansurvival and Peoplenomics… a bunch of us were talking.. He lost almost a quarter mil yesterday..

      since I don’t have anything.. I didn’t loose a dime LOL…

      what is funny is they are in a lot worse shape than we are in sweeden and in the UK my friend in Iceland he didn’t have to much to say about whether or not they are on lock down there.. I was visiting with a couple of friends last night from there and canada, my friend in canada is in about the same boat we are here.. sweeden is pretty much shut down so is the UK..
      my friend from the UK lost money on the stock market..

      • “He lost almost a quarter mil yesterday..

        since I don’t have anything.. I didn’t loose a dime LOL…”

        He did’nt lose anything, because it wasn’t his in the first place. Remember, we are all just pencilled in by the “Grace of God. Also, you (have?) very much — as I can read ;-).

  29. It just occurred to my why this virus is truly as dangerous as is now being presented. Not necessarily the virulence of COVID, but the tremendous fear/panic that is being generated to the point of encouraging people to avoid all contact with one another. If it is a bioweapon released either maliciously or accidentally, the net effect seems to be heading to a total shutdown of all economies affected by the virus.Let us hope and pray our collective leaders both locally and nationally have the foresight to address security and individual freedom issues in a manner that does not attempt to create a police state potentially unleashing pent-up tensions that have been smoldering in our country in recent years.

Comments are closed.