Executive Breifing or Functional Outlook?

It’s always a “hard choice” come Monday.  After a full day off – the only one I afford myself – it’s always a difficult decision whether to write a column that would do a  presidential briefer proud.  Or, whether to focus instead on the practical matters of life.

Even more tempting, as we shall pursue this morning is the “All things to all people” approach to the  information tsunami.  A bipolar column, just ahead.

Five That Matter

The “briefer” would rip through oodles of ‘news’ and might distill down the following:

Say, would this old geezer make a good briefer, or what?

Ahead Lies What Matters

Data to factor this week:  Consumer prices come Wednesday.  Then, retail sales will hit Friday morning.  Most of the other data is more tonal than impacting.  

Like tomorrow morning’s NFIB Optimism outlook.  Though Producer Prices also have some heft to ’em.

Metals “Mental”?

We’ve been watching the prices of gold and silver with some amusement.  Because the “heavy thumb of the Fed” (printing up more than 30% money made-up scrip this year) makes it look like inflation is here on the scales of economic rationality.

Importantly, when you go over to the Minneapolis Fed Inflation Calculator, and go back to the Hunt Brothers hold on silver in 1979-1980, when it peaked around $48.70, one can make an inflation adjusted target of $151 out of it.

Unfortunately for the Gold Bugs, the same approach doesn’t work out so well.  By this measure, we’re possibly into a “topping zone.”

You see, the problem with Gold is that it peaked around $1,850 in fall of 2011.  Same (Minneapolis Fed inflation calculator) methodology puts an inflation-adjusted target around $2,100.

Calling tops is always a bear (sorry for the pun!).  But we have no idea whether gold could be peaking right now, or might this fall closer to that $2,100 level.  Key thing to grasp, though, is that is a target based on 2019 prices.

Can Anyone Post Price Targets?

Well, NO.  Not authoritatively, anyway.

BUT, if you wanted to, you might up the $2,100 to $2,156 based on a 2.7% inflation rate for 2020.  Then-again, there’s also a chance the target would be a much-loftier $2,772 based on  the Fed’s rotor down-wash (of Bernanke’s helicopters of money) which are rolling M2 up at a rate of 32% (6-months, annualized) here lately.

Problem is timing is everything in life.

Yet, it’s also fair to ask whether Silver could be the “next Bitcoin?  Besides, as my commodity broker (who can’t talk real candidly due to COMEX gag rules) points out, the historical gold-silver ratio is 15-to-1.  Sometimes 20-to-1.

With Gold around $2,030 this morning, 20-to-1 prices silver at $101 and change. 

While if the Fed dough leaks into Gold in a big way and 15-to-1 comes along, there’s a case for $184 silver, but would I hold out for that?  Maybe it’s only paper, but $150 silver isn’t impossible.  Likely?  Methinks not…yet.

Not to Be Misled

There are many stories to mislead people – by the millions.  Take the video about the Beruit “bomb” of last week.  A long-time Peoplenomics subscriber asked me about the video making the rounds purporting to show a missile strike.  My answer to him?

“The Associated Press fact checked the video and reported that the missile was “obviously fake,” citing a University of California, Berkeley professor who focuses on digital forensics.”

And speaking of Berkeley and surroundings, another reader tipped us to a great story in the SF Chronicle:

Are we on the verge of virus-sensing implants and virtual hamster balls? Futurist Paul Saffo tells us which inventions are on the horizon and what will only be found in sci-fi stories...”

We’re not too sure how the future will roll out exactly, but if you don’t apply some effort to being well-informed on where we are right now, your future conjectures will fail miserably.

Around the Ranch…

ton of activity here this weekend.

Tile Work:  In my remake of the kitchen – with maybe a picture or two to come by late fall – the first of the tile-over-formica parts are landing now.  Very good process for putting tile right over a p-lam countertop.  Video on the process over here if you’re a do-it-yourself’er.

Shop Furniture:  Finally got around to getting a seal coat on the “pottery-throwing stool” for Elaine.  Now, it’s down to a day or three’s worth of spar varnish on it to finish.  That “new in box” 1978 Toolkraft shaper table is a dream.  Notice how I can take a trivial project and turn it into an event?

Sanding Tip:  With the new 1550 CFM Harbor Freight dust collection system working like a charm, I’m able to do all kinds of work on the belt sander without fine dust getting all over the shop.  We’ve been getting about 3-5 times more use out of each 4-inch sanding belt because of a?  Prostik W1307 2-Inch by 2-Inch by 12-Inch Abrasive Belt and Disk Cleaner.  Essentially, it’s like an eraser  except it’s huge.  Hold it (carefully, duh!) on the running tool and cleans accumulated gunk out of the grit.  Getting  weeks instead of days out of belts now.

Reader Search:  Trying to find the “perfect instant finish” for do-dads around the shop.  One thing I’ve found that is great  is just get a tube, or three, of self-mixing 5-minute epoxy.   Spread thin on well-sanded wood…  Maybe not something to show off to company, but for projects where time is of the essense.

Family Handyman Mag had a good write up on Zenser’s B-I-N sanding sealer.  While we’ve used Kilz  for years, the upside of this is it’s super-fast drying:  Like 20-minutes or so.  Two downsides?  (Nothing’s ever perfect, right?  Price (north of $40 a gallon) and it’s got VOC’s in it.  Not a rule-out to use since the all-purpose outside bench is where we do most finishing.  Parts come in at night to cure out in the shop before the dew falls.

Swamp Cooler is paying for itself.  With the afternoon temps in East Texas into the mid 90’s and humidity down around 45%, the effective working temps in the shop are around a bearable 80-82F.  Still, when working heavier material, an a/c break of 10-15 minutes in the 73F office makes sense.

Looking for a Welding Table.  Best deal so far looks like the Klutch table that Northern Tool carries at its outlets.  Didn’t see a way to get it shipped for less than $44-bucks.  At that, a 90-minute round trip to their Tyler store might make sense, given my “hourly” rate in “retirement.”

Ham Radio Notes

I have gotten tired of asking people to climb trees for my “hang ’em high” ham radio antenna ambitions.

So my latest (marginally sane) move is to order an air-powered “antenna launcher.  There are lots of them around but I settled on an “Air Boss” ($60, plus special weights) which will arrive shortly.

The basic rig doesn’t include the fishing reel ($24, Amazon) or the Spider Weave line to load the reel ($13).  The one add-on that will take a little more doing?  A reticular (red-dot) sight ($35) which will mount on some 20 mm X 8mm stock that will be laminated and machined.  Air Boss didn’t offer a Weaver or Picatinny rail option.  No worries, though:  Remember my love of 5-min. Expoxy ?  Hell yeah.

I don’t think there’s any such thing as a “perfect” antenna launcher.  Bob Heil (K9EID) has a great review of using a DT Systems .22 powder load driven launcher.  Video for that’s over here.   Not too keen on .22 powder loads and certainly could be an issue in a big city.  Air’s a lot easier to control.  Especially when an  overshoot with a weight could break a solar panel, or land the antenna live draped over a power line.  Thanks, no.  “One shot, one antenna.”  at least in theory.

Antenna modeling keeps telling be the obvious:  The higher an antenna is, the better it works.  Although, we’re still not sure how to grow crank-down trees for when lightning’s about…Didn’t seem to be an issue with the steel tower…

New Halliucrafters HA-5 VFO landed.  Had for about half of the recent $400 going price on eBay.  The unit weighs about 8-1/2 pound. So, boat anchor ham gear for $47 a pound?

Still cheaper than a 1-ounce $67 DDS board out of China. That would pencil out to over $1,000 a pound.

Now down to debating whether to use the Johnson 122 VFO on the Viking II transmitter or the HA-5…  Tough decisions, huh?

What About Elaine?

Working on her projects, as well.  Noticed a pasta rolling add-on for the KitchenAid mixer came through along with 20-pounds of high-protein organic bread flower.

Which is good because the price of my favorite  Rose Brand Chinese egg noodles has taken a cue from SpaceX or something.  $19-bucks for a four pack now and sorry…that’s a little heavy.

You make make a pretty good noodle with some flour and an egg…and put the fetuccini cutter down to super thin.  Air dryer rack for the noodles was like $12 bucks and it’s a fold-up.

With winter coming, we like heartier foods.  A good meat and noodle sir-fry is easy, low mess, and can be used to pare down excess fresh veggies.

Mushroom growing time:  She’ll be starting one of those mushroom grow boxes today.  When it begins to “work” it will move onto a pile of gum tree wood chips behind the magnolia tree.  Lots of shade and with luck, we can get some spores to drop onto the wet, waiting chip bed.

Water Outage Saturday reminded us of the value of changing out the back-up watyer in the unbiquitous blue barrels.

Yeah…that covers  the “What’d you do this weekend…” part.  Now to ponder markets for a bit..

Write when you get rich,


43 thoughts on “Executive Breifing or Functional Outlook?”

    • what do you do when launcher gets stuck in tree. Come on , you know its going to happen mr. flower ,oh i mean flour.

  1. Deep State Jorge Strikes Again!

    And just like d.s. stooge McMaster, U be a “rugman” – over 6 different videos, two in infrared. Massive crater in Bedrock, and you want to foist the fertilizer bomb angle..really how long do think a Warehouse FULL of Ammonium Nitrate (2750 Tons) would last in Beirut, Lebanon?

    No Safety Measures for 6 YEARS?

    None STOLEN – just one little ton or two ?? In BEIRUT, LEBANON ?? AYFKM? No Really G – AYFKM ?

    Really losing ALL respect ever had for U as REPORTER ..WEAK – FRAUD. I hear the NYT is looking to hire..

    At least creepy joe bribem can COUNT on URE vote – if he even makes it to November 3rd, he wont.

    ? of the Day = Joke of the Day..

    -When the Value of the Federal Reserve Note goes to ZERO, what will U buy Bitcoin with? bwahahahahaha have a great day – geniuses.

    No Bitcoin 4 any of U compromised, unpatriotic, leftist losers, on Ure way to Gitmo..

  2. Years back while still living in the city part-time I was using my trusty Powershot to secure furring strips for hanging sheetrock in the basement when I was interrupted by an officer standing in my garage who was answering a call of the sounds of gunfire. He turned out to be a close-by neighbor. He borrowed the tool a couple of times. We’re still friends today.

    That among other things was a primary reason to accelerate my move to the ranch full time and commute to the office till I retired.

  3. “Tile Work: In my remake of the kitchen – with maybe a picture or two to come by late fall – the first of the tile-over-formica parts are landing now. Very good process for putting tile right over a p-lam countertop. Video on the process over here if you’re a do-it-yourself’er.”

    that looks interesting.. I am doing this for the cardboard cabinet..


  4. Snicker or laugh as you may, Bo Polney is back making some interesting predictions for this Fall and beyond. Ministers around the ‘net seem to be focusing on September for the earliest significant events to unfold as well as, thankfully, President Trump remaining in office regardless of the protests leading up to the elections and those that would certainly follow. Bo’s been right enough this year to be of interest so it’s something to see someone reach the same conclusions as seen here but coming from a totally out-of-this-world source. Secular scientific analysis may, prudently, restrict itself from outlandish predictions on PM prices and social events but Polney’s sources are under no such restrictions.

  5. My antenna launcher is a slingshot, rod and reel with 30lb line, a 1oz lead sinker, and swivel. With that I can shoot the sinker up over 70+ feet into a tree and then pull parachute cord thru and then tie the cord to the antenna and pull the antenna up. The repeat the process with the other end of my antenna. This works very well for me and I have gotten pretty good at accuracy and getting the line over the tree limb that I want to use.

  6. “Working on her projects, as well. Noticed a pasta rolling add-on”

    I love home made pasta.. remember a cup of flour will make a ton of pasta.. so hang it and dry it.. be creative with it to.. put dried herbs in with the pasta.. tomato powder etc..
    home made lasagna.. the best..

    I follow this guy.. his recipes are to die for.. except his oh baby hot peppers.. I don’t use those LOL….

    enjoy.. you will have fun making it.. the grand kids use to fight over who got to cut the noodles..
    my favorite noodle is the finger and thumb noodles..



  7. I prefer the slingshot & bait-casting pole for antenna hanging.

    1) Using a 1/2 ounce ball fishing weight and 15 pound test filament nylon fishing line, shoot the branch you want. Figure several tries, and also figure you’ll catch some extra unwanted branches. It’s best to only have one at the last to avoid line chafe when multiple branches blow around in the wind.

    2) Using the fishing pole, wind in some line, and then “play” the line up and over the unwanted over-shot branches until you have only the one good stout branch you want. Do this slowly, as the line will otherwise suddenly “wrap & snag” hopelessly. Let the natural “swing” as each unwanted branch is over-topped self-bleed-off, and then move on. When the line is in the perfect place, let it drop to the ground. (I paint the weight day-glo orange to assist in this process.)

    3) Tie-on some light weight common nylon string. Cut off the weight — you don’t need it any more/ Reel the string back up an over the branch, and all the way down to the fishing pole. (You recover most of the fishing line this way.) The fishing line isn’t strong enough the pull over the final antennas support line. You need the intermediate string step.

    4) Tie your 3/8 inch, or 1/4 inch, or 5/16 inch black double-braid nylon line and then back haul that line back over the branch to the ground. (See: “Sgt Knotts” for a good supplier.)

    5) Form a loop from the bottom of the tree, over the branch, and back, and cleat this off with a large plastic deck cleat from Amazon. Tie a good strong pulley to the loop’s joining point. This pulley will be later hauled up to the branch, and the line supporting the antenna end will go through this pulley and itself be cleated off to a second big cleat. (This allows for lowering or slackening the antenna itself if high winds are on the way.) Ultimately, the pulley stays in place forever, but you have a window of time for adjustments before the line fuses with the growing tree branch and becomes embedded and immobilized. (If you have the presence of mind to move the line back and forth occasionally, it might even stay free.)

    6) Repeat with tree number two. Antenna goes from pulley to pulley and is easily adjusted, lowered or replaced.

    My experience is that a bow & arrow is unsatisfactory for two main reasons. First, once shot, it’s VERY difficult to re-wind and recover. It tangles like crazy. The only choice is to let it drop all the way – if it even will! — and re-shoot. Also, arrows are light in weight, and can’t “carry” much fishing line very far. One can cut off the tip, and put on a heavy sponge rubber ball, and this helps the “carry” power, but makes the rewind and snag proneness even worse.

    I’ve never used potato guns or tennis ball guns, so I have no useful data there; but the fishing weight — string — strong nylon line method has always worked very well for me.

    A bait-casting reel is the type where the line pays of the end of the spool, “sideways,” in a manner of speaking, and doesn’t need to accelerate the spool. Light-weight fly casting reels don’t work as well, and heavy weight “deep sea” reels don’t buy you anything useful, either.


    • Lotb- your thinking of a spinning reel not a bait caster. Using a bait caster in that scenario is going backlash something fierce. Sounds like fun though, that’s the stuff I used to do when I was a kid.

  8. One thing about PM’s, is that the premium must be considered. The spot price is only for special buyers. Right now at Texmetals a Silver Eagle is nine dollars above spot. Even a Philharmonic is almost five above. The premium or spread can reveal information about the true market price as opposed to the official spot price. When supply is tight the spread can blow out to a larger percentage of the spot.
    On another angle, has anyone ever considered that people using gold and silver coins as actual money in everyday use might be healthier because of the constant contact with the PM’s? Maybe gold and silver enhance physical health as well as economic health.

    • It’s funny but back when they were making the Indian head gold $2.50, $5 and $10 coins a rumor was started that the incused, I think that was the word, design would harbor germs so those denominations with that design weren’t passed around that much. People were just beginning to learn about microbiology so lots of rumors were flying around.

      The “market price” vs. spot price for PMs today is representative of the budding black market that will be in existence if the government gets any ideas about confiscating it. There’s no regulation that limits the price anyone can put on any of it.

  9. just don’t worry about any price objectives or rationale for achieving them .. just get on the covid hoax train and ramp the bejesus out of everything .. works better if stoned or vaccinated

  10. So…Trump is so desperate for votes in November, he is now doing a Bernie Sanders and giving former students a break on their student loans until January 2021..interest free. I applaud that move, but it won’t be enough to change the young voters mind about him. Over 78% have a strong disdain for Trump…and Biden has already said he will do the same and then, go a step further…

    Biden’s plan would forgive outstanding student debt for those who have responsibly paid it back for 20 years. Those working jobs in “national or community service” like teaching or non-profits, would receive $10,000 student debt relief annually for up to five years for each year that they stay in that vocational job..
    People making more than $25,000 would direct pay 5 percent of their discretionary income toward their loan, which is half of the current 10 percent cap. Those who make $25,000 or less would not be expected to pay back the government and would not accrue interest. 

    And unlike Sanders…who wants all college education not be free…a disaster waiting to happen…Biden will only make tuition debt free for those who attend two years of community college or high-quality training programs. The Biden campaign argues that two free years of community college would cut four year education rates in half since students could transfer their credits to complete their college education. That makes sense.

    • You do know, the majority of student loans are being paid by parents. right. Trump voters. rim shot

    • @Marx

      You finally come out of the closet for BIDEN…and I thought you were a Trump hater…

      by the way also in that biden agenda to for give student debt etc…he is going to pay for it by TAXING ALL real estate sellers…and especially the Salespeople…gotta love them dems…free for some and pain of taxes for others…

    • Did I miss something in the constitution where the federal government was allocated power to fund higher education for the state citizens? If there is any responsibility at all for government, the states should be owning these programs. At least they cannot just print monies and throw at voters.

      Covid and social distances clearly show us there are less expensive ways to get educated, with remote learning, self motivation and focused training programs. We should not continue to subsidize the existing mess of brain washing, fee driven, over priced courses we have today.

      We need an Elon Musk (spacex) type person to completely transform higher education, like his company has done with launches. Throwing more good money after bad, just keeps the market from transforming this overpriced, lethargic industry.

      Would also be nice if any national politician actually had a care toward the tax payers instead of buying the vote of the free loaders.

  11. China is still expanding the US slow bleed program with so called ipo’s. The last I heard, China has control of all it’s businesses, private ownership is nominal and secondary to state interests. Free money from wall street with no manufacturing overhead and no shipping costs. The whole thing is greased up with abbreviated investor rights from regulators and full “usual fees” for wall street.

    p.s.; make sanding blocks out of old sanding belts by cutting 3/4″ material to fit tight after bullnosing the ends – one for each grit. (works best with 3X21 belts though.)

  12. oh and just go to a gold rampin site like 321 or kitco for all the old farts who have turned into sheetcoin types .. they will give you a heap of overvalued stories in a depression about old yella they peddle and a few recipes and stock ramps .. old moriarty hes the best at that…. yes folks step up to the greatest circus on earth .. USSA.. amazing hoaxes and illusion guaranteed to turn you into a vege .. and so mixed up youll need economic guru crutches bigger than politics

  13. George

    “So my latest (marginally sane) move is to order an air-powered “antenna launcher.”

    For the kind of money you thinking of spending why don’t you get a small Drone to let you put your lead line exactly where you want it?

    Then you can use the drone for other tasks.

    I love dual use technology!

    You Grok?

    • Mark,,thank you for the update on your trials and tribulations, please go donate more of your money to Lincoln Project , Open Society and anything else George Soros wants you to support
      the lincoln project is a bunch of No Name’s and Pierre Romney’s failed support committee. Traitors,the whole damn lot. Your despair lets me know, President Trump and team is Winning Bigly
      Thanks again Mark, ya put a smile on my face. Are you prepared for a Trump landslide 2020. Pretty darn hard to stop the Storm and you are in it’s path

    • One of the interesting aspects of The Lincoln Project is that two of the lesser luminary founders are each running their own digital media firm. A substantial proportion of The Project’s donation tally appears to funnel into the two aforementioned digital media firms. Sounds like a Barnum & Bailey for smart folk.

  14. “Looking for a Welding Table.”

    I’d consider building one. There are at least three steel fabs/suppliers in Tyler. Quarter inch angle & plate are not expensive, and IMO one should use nothing less. My table is about the same size as the one at NT, but weighs ~250 pounds, and needs to, for some of the stuff I’ve welded. It also cost less than $25 to build (granted, several years ago.) The secret is the “ends & pieces rack” (the scrap pile.) Every fab shop has one, and stuff on this rack generally sells to the public for the reclamation price of the steel (currently between 3-5 cents per pound…)

  15. I finally got a shutoff for my electrical power. The bill hasn’t been paid in months (but I have the money to the side).

    Tomorrow was the day. I called in and got a 10 day extension. LOL The power people were nice to me. But it was over an hour on the phone.

  16. G -zer,

    What a timely headline – prescient as per usual!

    Executive Briefing = TRUMP to be 1st Standing PRESIDENT to be ADDED to Mount Rushmore!

    This will obviously have a Functional Outlook..looking out over South Dakota and the lower 48.

    What a Great and Glorious Day – TRUMP on Mount Rushmore!


    Overheard Chorus in the background of a vision – “On the Way to Gitmo..”

    “we are screaming for Vengence
    the World is a manacled place
    Screaming, screaming for Vengence
    the World is Defiled in Disgrace..

    ..i dont talk about it but thats alright
    tables turned now theres a revenge in sight
    if it takes forever, I can wait
    Send them screaming back through their hell’s own gate -J. Priest

    “Welcome Ye Goats and Dogs, to Gitmo” – Pepethefrog

    • “TRUMP to be 1st Standing PRESIDENT to be ADDED to Mount Rushmore!”

      Lol lol and I heard that the B.L.M movement wants it taken down because of their stand on slavery..

      • The next thing will be to dismantle the sexists image of women displayed as the statue of liberty.. heck let’s be fare and give her an appearance showing shes pro liberation of sexual freedom… lol lol

  17. I’ve seen another way to apply tile to a laminate counter top which is cheaper and quicker. 1/8” to 1/4” Frequency hardware cloth is screwed to the surface of the laminate. Then thinset is applied, then the tile, just as in that video.
    I’m liking the spacers that guy makes, assuming low cost.
    Good luck with your project. Ceramic tile is really great and will last longer than we will, assuming it’s well made.

  18. Watching from afar at the very clear take down and dissolution of America, i see no hope of any revival. The reason for this being the great over whelming mass of citizens there who are judging by the wealth of evidence available of sub par intelligence and character. You have not one national leader who could say what needs to be said and have any credibility or moral stature. Granted this is a world wide issue.
    The degree to which you are propagandized is astounding, yet most never see it, even many readers here on this site. In any case have been reading this site for years, just one of the many ways i gauge what is happening over there. I will not offer ‘solutions’, that would be insulting, but look luck to the sane caught up in the madness. there will be many false flags in your future, sadly.

    • “the very clear take down and dissolution of America,”

      Simon.. my thoughts are that its not just america.. but the world..the same forces dictating what is going to happen here are dictating the same or slightly different scenario’s for every other country.. the spiders in the center of the web safe from being touched.. how many times have you seen where anyone looking into situations with those of power have been covered over and out of view..
      Just last week there was a news story about the son of a judge overseeing a pedophile ring that deals with colleagues of a certain billionaire was murdered. the same with investigators and people going to give witness for corruption in the elite..
      these same forces are in control of all the leaders of the other countries as well..the dollar tanks the world tanks right along with it…


      the black lives matter situation.. there isn’t any Malcolm x in the center.. and it went global with a lot of organization all at once.. who has that kind of power.. I was told by people at a demonstration here that there are the people offering money to do damage and more if you start a violence.. who does that.. who has that kind of money and organization. why.. what is the final agenda.. is the blm movement to target the black population and put them at greater risk for catching the virus.. eliminating law enforcement in their neighborhoods.. directing them to businesses that are miles away.. granted the officers that did the crime should face the charges but it went global..

  19. Here’s a tip for sealing coax and antenna connectors. Any auto supply store has a windshield sealer made by Permatex called ‘flowable silicone’. Unlike regular RTV silicone, this stuff first ‘melts’ when applied, and flows into all the cracks and crevices. Then once smooth, it skins over and solidifies like regular silicone. No vinegar smell, so it won’t eat into the conductors. I use it on all my antennas and connectors for a nice water seal.

  20. Hi George, et al., one of the best news source that I have found is ToreSays.com. She has a two hour news channel on Red State Radio, you can also find her on Twitch. She was recently taken off Twitter and YouTube has limited her from live streaming but does post old shows.

    She is Navy vet and has a very good handle on events. Let’s just say she KNOWS things, like entheos (on twitter) does, before things happen!

    Worth your time I think!

  21. Bear in-mind, Biden is demented and has nothing to offer, so the “search” for a veep keeps his name in the media in a highly benign manner, without requiring that he appear in-person or open his mouth…

  22. Just purchased a reel, Picatinny mount for it, and fishing bolts for my crossbow pistol (it has both upper and lower Picatinny rails…)

    IT shoots too hard to launch a pulling line for a wire, but one o’ those toy crossbow pistols, now…?

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