EoW or Irregular High Flat Four?

Wednesday we got into this in some depth for our www.peoplenomics.com readers, with charts and all.  But despite the market gyrations making no-brainer headlines for the doom and gloom crowd, we persist with the silly notion that facts still matter.  Like this morning’s retail numbers which we will get to in a moment.

Look at the China Yuan devaluation.  What does it do?

Simple:  In theory is should make buyers of Chinese product, like Wal-Mart, a little more profitable because the things made in China, sold by Wal-Mart aren’t going up in price.  And what that means – if Wal-Mart doesn’t go nuts with those price rollback stickers, is the company’s financial performance should improve.  Everything from China should get cheaper.

On the other hand, if your company makes its money selling to China, I’d be dusting off the resume’.

There are some competing headlines this morning of a non-economic nature that are being beaten to death is less practical media.

We consider UrbanSurvival a kind of output for PM (practical media) because we don’t look so much at the news items, per se.  We try to look at the effects that headlines will have – good or bad.

And right now, we’re having great fun watching the End of Worlder’s line up.  But bad news for them:  The world won’t end even with a drop of the S&P to 1,740.  And that is a possibility for a major Wave 4 correction, though I like 2,040 better..  But then will come five  – a screaming upwave (if our work is right).

The Fed rate drop this fall will force money parked in bonds to get more adventurous.

Yet again, the same people who were touting Bitcoins at $900 on the downside (it’s $264 this morning) keep making predictions that turn out wrong.  (See our Sept. 2014 discussion here).  But we will go out on a limb here:

When the major wave five of 2016 gets underway, those Bitcoin promoters are likely to be right for a change.  Because one thing about paper is it’s easy to add zeros.  Satoshis may start to look interesting in here, but not if the market breaks down severely this fall.

So again, we wait.  It’s about as exciting as sitting in a duck blind for 10 hours, but when we shoot, we can get some pretty good kills, now and then.

So What Does Retail Say?

Hot numbers – fresh off the press release:

“The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $446.5 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and up 2.4 percent (±0.7%) above July 2014. Total sales for the May 2015 through July 2015 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The May 2015 to June 2015 percent change was revised from -0.3 percent (±0.5%)* to virtually unchanged (±0.2%)*.  Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from June 2015, and up 1.6 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Food services and drinking places were up 9.0 percent (±3.3%) from July 2014 and motor vehicle and parts dealers were up 6.9 percent (±2.8%) from last year.  

Still, look how much of it is auto sales:

And the reality is – sorry again to the EoW’ers:  As long as the public is buying and we don’t see a month on month drop of 2% or more, which would push out to a 254% annualized rate and more?  I wouldn’t bet against America’s economic powerhouse.

And when the price of things like 4K TVs comes down more, I look for retail to move up as Americans have a ton of money they’re willing to spend on better home electronics.

Market’s ought to open slightly higher, but market’s aren’t as rational as us.

U.S. Department of Distractions

12-million have migrated to the US in the past 15-years.  Mexico is the leading contributor says this report.

Republicans are capitalizing on the data:  Senators Ted Cruz and Jeff Sessions are asking the immigration status of 72 terrorism suspects be revealed.  Look for the King of Transparency to sit on this one, too.

But not all goes well for conservatives:  Conservative journalist James O’Keefe’s stunt (crossing into the US dressed as Osama bin Laden has him in hot water with DHS.  But now that may blow back on DHS, too.  (We having fun, yet?)

Meantime on the other side, democorps are trying to figure out how to deal with Hillary Clinton’s email missteps and lies.

Don’t Mess With Our Service Members

If ISIS had a political director, they ought to be fired.  Because there are some stunts you don’t try to pull on America.  Like posting personal information of service members online including addresses..

Not to over react, but since we’ve known about the snooping around into the periphery of military families in the Midwest including Colorado and Wyoming, we’d just like to pass along a word to the wise if the war comes here and targets service member families.

America has held it’s user of nukes for 70 years.  But there’s a lot of sand and glassmaking potential because I don’t think the American  people would stop at an “eye for eye” on an attack on military families.