Decline, Rally, Holiday

We’re working in the wrong business – that is, if you happen to work in the private sector, like I do.

That’s because in the FedGov, employees get 10 holidays per year. Those of us schmoes in the private sector are lucky to get five. And this is before federal employees count “compensatory time” – which is what racks up when working beyond an 8-hour day in most agencies, and so on.

Yeah…private sector…I know: “Comp time? Whatzzat?”

Not to bring up a sore spot so early, but it’s the calendar we need to talk about this morning. That’s because two weeks from Friday, Labor Day Weekend will begin. Lots of people will tack on a saved “personal day” or whatever (BTW: has the FedGov started offering gender counseling days yet? I’m waiting…) and turn it into a four or five day deal.

We watch our readership go through a usual shift ahead of major holidays. It normally goes something like this:

    • 10-Days before the holiday: Markets firm and rally.
    • 7-Days before the holiday: Markets may peak a day or three either side of this.
    • 3-Days before the holiday: UrbanSurvival readership tanks as people work half-days in order to make potato salad, get the BBQ ready which means a spare tank of propane and that’s a trip to the gas-dispensary.
    • 2-Days before the holiday: No readers are left. Everyone is taking off early in order to pick up beer or hit the liquor store. Quantities vary by presidential polls.
    • 1-Day before the holiday: Markets decline since there is no one around to sell anything to.

    All of which makes some semblance of sense….and we may be able to add one more expectation to this:

        • 11-12 Days Before Holiday: Market decline so traders can make an “easy score” for August and sell just ahead of the holiday.

        Which about gets us to this morning.

        Ure’s truly is in a tiny long position in the techs. He still expects the pre-holiday rally will be along.

        And one more expectation:

        We could see the holiday as an ideal time for the Russians to take back some territory from Ukraine, which if you remember was taken over in a US State Department-backed coup just five months before scheduled elections because people in Ukraine dared question being hornswoggled into the Ure-a-pee’in Union.

        Which short-changed the Russians who are now tossing resource into the next-door Crimea, and no doubt, Vlad Putin has worked out the calculus of US Presidential Politicking as he is rallying the locals (and troops) in Crimea.

        One thing Putin has to be wondering is “If Obama won’t even fly over Louisiana, will he send John Kerry or Joe Biden to Ukraine? In other words, will anyone answer the phone on a US holiday weekend?”

        The dance continues, of course.

        But several things come to light: Ukraine is another “When Hil was at State” that could easily hit the rocks. It’s not her only screw-up. Go read “Why Hillary’s neocon foreign Police will make the problem of Islamophobia Worse…” which is interesting. Especially on top of what President Useless has been dumping here from wherever.

        Wherever, by the by, especially includes El Salvador from which illegals are piling into the victimized southern tier states.

        Besides being embroiled in an internal narco-war (and hearing about how easy it is to sneak in here), the El Salvadoran ex-president has blow out for parts unknown as a corruption probe goes looking for him.

        But in terms of accountability for leaking borders? No accountability for Hillary OR Obama on this. The reason is gracefully summed up in the NY Post this morning in a Michael Goodwin column: “American journalism is collapsing before our eyes…” This is precisely the point I was getting to in our Sunday Schooling report (“The Mush-head American’s Prez Primer “) on how hit pieces are all over the place.

        Not that it matters, since there is not a single headline this morning that is worthy of water-cooler talk, except how Hillary is trying to pin her email crimes on Former Sec. State Colin Powell which won’t play well with the black community.

        And the community at large as we’re having to read (in the foreign press) about how Hil aid Huma Abedin was working as ASSISTANT EDITOR at her mother’s radical Muslim journal when it blamed America for 9/11.

        Yes, Huma’s Hil’s aide who married disgraced former congressoid and sexter Anthony Weiner.

        In fairness to Hil, I think I understand why she and Huma might work well together. Huma and Anthony hitched up in 2009 which was before his 2011 sexting scandal. So perhaps Huma and Hil share a kind of “Sisterhood of the very, very Bad-Dog Hubbies” but that’d only be speculation (OK, with a few facts tossed in) on my part. But we do seek to comprehend how stuff works and this kind of framework explains much. Not Hil’s single-payer healthcare…or looser borders…but at least some of the working relationship stuff.

        I swear if there is alien life out there – and if they are getting their jollies by watching the shit roll up on Ant Colony Earth – they have gone totally off-the-hook with the crap rolling around the upper social/powersphere of this rock.

        You probably figured this out for yourself..except for the market roll through it. And THAT is why we really need a Holiday…and pretty damn quick.

        Because no one is sure how much more pointless, stupid, and polarizing the headlines could possibily become.

        Except, I think there’s a fair chance that we could be about to find out.

        M&A Monday

        Pfizer to Buy Medivation in $14 Billion Deal.

        I got this great quip about “Keep a stiff upper acquisition…” but it would be a play on Pzizzies. Viagra product and you’re not going to follow…we on we press…

        Screwing with Social Security

        All this BS with Obamacare – and yes, rates are going through the roof – a fact pushed back until after the Election/Transaction goes through so you won’t vote out the democans – go read the CNBC piece on how average Social Security will go down about $30 bucks a person per month (around $300 annually). The key quote:

        The latest report from the Medicare Board of Trustees is calling for Medicare Part premiums to inflate by 22.3 percent, increasing the Part B premium to $149 per month from $121.80 per month in 2016.”

        Meantime, it’s an article of faith around here that the FedGov will jigger the Cost of Living – which is not experientially-based in case you haven’t noticed – in order not to give up more than a nickel, or so.

        Fact is Obamacare is coming to get you. And in 2017 it is going to show up, turn you upside down and shake out whatever is left in your wallet.

        All the while, things like paying down a credit card a bit will be counted as “personal savings” so as to keep the Big Lie going.

        In point of fact, most people I know can’t tell a damn bit of difference between life under Obama and the dems for 8-years, any more than we could after 8-years of Buch, any more than we could after 8-years of Dick Clinton.

        WTF are we working for? Sure as shit ain’t time off or more walk-around money, is it?

        The Weak Ahead

        Futures are down about 50 on the Dow but the big story this morning is that silver is down under $19 and this goes along with me telling you that betting on gold and silver as inflation hedges may be way early.

        We still need to get down to the bottom of the Second Depression and we might not even see the market PEAK until next Spring and then collapse after that.

        (Our subscribers know this is the week of February 14, 1929 if they have been paying attention to the replay scenarios… so we have some running room to the market high.)

        Which leaves us with a Chicago Fed National Activity Report to digest:

        Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.27 in July from +0.05 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from June, and three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in July.

        Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index tomorrow. Durable Goods Thursday and GDP and Corporate Profits on Friday.

        This last is more than a little troubling: Corporate profits have not been doing so well the past four quarters and this one coming up is likely to be a kind of Friday morning turd, as well.

        The reasons? Oh God, do you have time?

        1.No manufacturing in the USA.

        2.No tariffs on foreign goods dumping.

        3.No plan to fix anything.

        4.Bigger sell out to come in TPP/TPA et al.

        5.Weaker US Dollar because of mass printing to cover-up the national debt problem.. .

        6.And on and on…

        A colleague of mine sent me a chart this weekend of interest rates globally. Shows the US is one of the few places without negative rates.

        But you don’t see the rest of it: Canada’s prime minster has signed Canada’s bail-in legislation – which you may remember from April.

        Of course you knew bail-in laws took effect in Europe at the beginning of the year, as well.

        When you get some time, and want to understand the how and why of how it will happen in ‘Merica – but not till after the elections, of course – go read the NY Fed piece here that has been kicking around since 2014.

        The Globalists are almost ready to make their run at taking over the world. You have – at best – maybe one year left to get seriously ready.

        Lawmakers don’t pass laws without a point.

        Your life savings is the whole point and if you don’t get that yet, you might as well call in sick and use up your sick time while you can still get it.

        21 thoughts on “Decline, Rally, Holiday”

        1. George, you wrote: “The Globalists are almost ready to make their run at taking over the world. You have – at best – maybe one year left to get seriously ready.”

          So what can we do to get seriously ready?

          • Keep only a minimal amount of savings in cash; all the rest should be in hard assets which will retain value. Beyond that, you just have to trust your inner guidance and roll with the punches.

            • Sherlyn – have you heard of the phrase “catching falling knives”? I’d expect hard asset prices to fall a bunch before going back up. In other words whatever hard assets you buy today will probably be worth less than that in a year.

              Buy what you use, and doesn’t spoil, and pay down debt is my advice. Nothing wrong with having 3-6 months of living expenses saved either.

          • I as you, would ask the same question. I ain’t the sharpest tool in the shed. Worked at a trade for 50 years or such and saved for the future but never got involved with high finance. Any success was with 401K and ESOP type plans and living below my financial ability. Now we find ourselves threatened with lose of the little we have, so So what can we do to get seriously ready ?

          • John – If you’re serious, you might benefit from simply reading a ton of past issues here.

          • for the average slave laborer.. very little.. George suggested a book several months ago.. it really opened my eyes.. and you can follow the book just by reading the political parties..( yup all of them ) platforms..
            Here is the copy of the book .. if you want to read it.. scariest book I ever read recently.. kind of like when bush junior was running for president.. and you could follow the book double crossed page by page in the newspapers.. an eye opener for sure..

          • Let’s see; learn to grow a garden and raise chickens, learn to can various foods for preservation, likewise for drying/dehydration, learn to find and cleanse water, etc. Keyword: LEARN, LEARN, LEARN!

          • Let’s see; learn to grow a garden and raise chickens, learn to can various foods for preservation, likewise for drying/dehydration, learn to find and cleanse water, etc. Keyword: LEARN, LEARN, LEARN!

        2. You know it probably is best that you live down in Texas rather than the PNW . . . you keep ‘shouting’ about how people are behavin’. ‘Up here’ we are the most ‘unchurched’ part of the country, and frankly the stroke incidence is high enough thank you, that two more ‘victims’ are not needed.

          Seriously though – when someone ‘works themselves up into a lather’ over a subject it may be personal, but are you really gauging your readers?

          Do I care who Hilary Clinton is friends with? Not really . . . the same as I really don’t care who Trump’s daughter pals around with (even if it is Putin’s mistress – ‘birds of a feather’ perhaps??)

          I’ll pass on Trump being married three times (though ‘changing out’ one’s spouse used to be ‘a death knell’ in politics) – if one ignores Clinton’s ‘EX-PRESIDENT’ husband. Bill isn’t running is he?

          Moral issues are pretty much ‘tit for tat’ – I read you for other kinds of comment . . .

        3. FYI the US has a bail-in system, too. The G-20 signed on to the FSB “Resolution Regime” back in 2015.

        4. Hi George I don’t know if anyone else is having problems punching into your site but I am I can’t get the updated site I’m getting things back to July 20th but not now and I had to go through a whole lot of s*** just to get up to this point now up to this date so anyway I check if you can buy your your records on or your digits on the amount of people that are recorded that are punching into your site and see if there’s a difference today or within the last 2 days so that we can confirm that they are both the same token just because people are punching in doesn’t mean at the same time that they can actually access your site so

        5. If you wait to get your gold and silver until the big rally starts, you will be way too late. It will be difficult if not impossible to obtain.

        6. You referred to paying down a debt count as being “personal savings.” What program is that?

        7. Well, the biggest game in the world, is sewing up America, it is job No. 1; once that is done, and it is REAL close, then the collapse will come. But until then, massive unleashed immigration (legal and illegal); signing and implementing TPP (more job losses, increased lowered wages, increased sub-standard food imports); increased H1 B visas with a continuation of stripping our engineers/IT/higher wage earners out of their jobs; negative interest rates; more pension failures and state pension cuts/adjustments; more land being confiscated by the US government using environmental laws (Agenda 21); gun limitations including small arm treaty cooperation; more limits on freedom of speech, hate laws anyone?; more massive civil unrest; more rotten supreme court decisions; more undeclared wars (finish taking out Syria, and go after Iran); one good thing though, more MASSIVE data reveals/hacks/breaches and people in high places being brought low. This is such a SMALL list of what is coming, can you think of any other situations that are on the horizon? What can you do to prepare? FIRST and most important thing: Downsize; get rid of your crap. SECOND, get with like minded people and craft a back up plan. Start there and you will be well on your way.

        8. Take back some territory from ukraine, so your getting a check from Putin now
          It’s called an invasion in Ukrainian sovereign territory.

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