We have just passed the 10-year anniversary of the 2009 market wash-out lows. Where we head next is a worthwhile discussion.
There are plenty of economic cycles to choose from: There it the “presidential market cycle” which is likely more correlated to the 3-5-year Kitchin Cycle. Then there’s the “10-year real estate cycle” which is nothing more than the 7-11-year Juglar Cycle.
Modern economics downplays the value of cycle work, because the data is not as predictable to the formulaic quants (quantitative analysts) who do math, but little other thinking. As a result, when you hit Wikipedia, about all you’ll find on the Juglar Cycle is this shorty:
“The Juglar cycle is a fixed investment cycle of 7 to 11 years identified in 1862 by Clément Juglar. Within the Juglar cycle one can observe oscillations of investments into fixed capital and not just changes in the level of employment of the fixed capital (and respective changes in inventories), as is observed with respect to Kitchin cycles. 2010 research employing spectral analysis confirmed the presence of Juglar cycles in world GDP dynamics.”
We have a very high confidence-interval that longer waves in the economy exist, such as the Kondratieff (Kondratiev) wave. There is also evidence, based on work done with a colleague years back, of a long “currency cycle” that may last up to 83.5-years ideally, but who knows how far Modern Monetary Theory can manipulate past that?
What makes Juglar’s cycle so interesting is they seem to fit loosely with successive waves of technological innovation. We can almost look back at recent history and see how innovation breaks around 10-year marks.
The most blatant of the 10-year marks was the run-up from 1990 to 2000 in what was dubbed the Internet Bubble and promptly collapsed in 2001 (at the 11-year mark). However, this was masked (almost too conveniently for our tastes) by the outbreak of “terrorism” and the Twin Towers.
From 2000’s ashes came a new spate on technology build: Online services and ERP. In this period, we saw everything from online accounting system (QuickBooks Online, for example) to ERP platforms and group collaboration, scheduling, and work groups.
Oh, it’s also when the Housing Bubble was planted by the Federal Reserve which (negligently, in our view) loosened money and housing ownership qualifications resulting in the 2007-2008 spike top in the housing market. Then we saw the decline of the burst bubble which bottomed in April of 2009. Which, we have to remind, exactly fits with Juglar.
Cycles are never precise. They are noisy. The noise factors include technical innovation, usefulness of the “new thing” and the availability of capital to throw into the new….whatever.
Since 2009, we have been living in a “phony” economy. The one built on phones. The “smarter” the phone, the dumber the user, as we figure it. But, with phones now out-populating the whole planet… well, let’s just say there’s an App for everything now and 5-G is just around the corner.
Could things look any better for the economy? Depends who you ask.
On the technological front, there are problems emerging with 5G. Not only are the frequencies used higher, but there are increasing numbers of “experts” who are putting their names to warning documents such as this one.
“We are scientists engaged in the study of biological and health effects of non-ionizing electromagnetic fields (EMF). Based upon peer-reviewed, published research, we have serious concerns regarding the ubiquitous and increasing exposure to EMF generated by electric and wireless devices. These include–but are not limited to–radiofrequency radiation (RFR) emitting devices, such as cellular and cordless phones and their base stations, Wi-Fi, broadcast antennas, smart meters, and baby monitors as well as electric devices and infra-structures used in the delivery of electricity that generate extremely-low frequency electromagnetic field (ELF EMF).”
There are some hard realities ahead for 5G, not the least of which is dinging all the needed tower spaces and then meeting signal strength requirements both on the low side for coverage and on the high side for maximum permissive exposure limits. Oh, and money: This could be in the hundreds of billions to build out and that will all, over time, end up in your wireless bill.
A side note: One of our satellite nodes here in the woods has a 5G connection which is useful at times when the other internet onramps are down. But, we actually feel a bit better when the 5G is off.
We have been urging people to read about the dangers of electromagnetic pollution for years; going back to the HAARP experiments. A definitive foundational read (which will get you from fluorescent lights up to cell phones) is Becker and Selden’s “The Body Electric: Electromagnetism And The Foundation Of Life.” It’s about $10-bucks on Amazon Kindle. With it, you’ll have a better understanding of “smart-metering” and emerging technologies like 5G.
Although I’m a pretty serious ham radio operator, I do pay attention to how much time I’m actually “on the air transmitting” and it generally runs one hour a week key-down (or less) even in the relatively benign HF spectrum. Remember, the higher you go, the more ionizing radiation becomes.
Too much WiFi may be bad for you:.
A list of 2.4Ghz WLAN channels is here, but they run from 2,412 to 2.484 Ghz. The kicker is that’s right next door to the frequency used to cook food in the microwave: 2.45 Ghz.
This is why, if your wifi isn’t strong in the kitchen and you are streaming Amazon for iHeart Radio in the morning (like we do because reception of WOAI out of San Antonio is poor on regular AM, especially during storms), the streaming will drop out for part of the 3:13 it takes to microwave a mess of bacon… A lot of people ignore such coincidences because they don’t understand how streaming and buffering work, but that’s another half-hour rap you don’t have time for this morning.
But, yes, we do check the microwave regularly for leakage. Detector are under $20-bucks like the HT-M2 High Precision Digital LCD Display Microwave Leak Detector 0-9.99mW/cm2 black & yellow.
Our bottom line (other than selling you a microwave oven leak detector and checking your microwave, router, phones, and such) is just to remind you that “tick-tock” – the market will be going “for the Juglar” one of these days so best not to be present on the long-side when it happens.
Cowardice has a better retirement policy than bravery.
Must Reads: CBDs and LAWS
My buddy Gaye Levy, who’s been a pal since 1973, has a brilliant discussion of CBD Oils up on her StrategicLivingBlog over here. Hell of an article and explains much and why that “hemp oil” crap doesn’t work unless you get the legit stuff. (Or smoke, lol.)
Second mention is about tomorrow’s Peoplenomics.com report which is about “Prepping for the LAWS” – Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems”: wherein I reveal just an inkling about an NDA I’ve been on for years related to…
Two damn fine reads so you’ll have some actual brain food (ABF) instead of the daily-dose of American Stupidity.
Speaking of Which
New article from the Gallup Poll folks ought to scare you into swallowing the red pill: “Four in 10 Americans Embrace Some Form of Socialism.” ISYN, this is how idioticans end up in high places, like the cerebrally-deficient Cortex, if you follow.
Back in the 1950’s – in the wake of the left-wing rebellion against the Joe McCarthy hearings, which actually did find bits of a conspirary of international socialism to take down America, the John Birch Society called out educators in particular for leading the left’s charge into the flanks of core American values.
Well, here we are, almost 70-years-on, and between the “occupiers” and Berkeley and cerebral Cortex and BS…Bernie Sanders…the data at some point becomes incontrovertible. Well, except it’s not, because 4 in 10 Americans really are idiots. So says the polling data.
A curative visit to Venezuela, Russia, or China during the Cultural Revolution would clarify things, but 4-out of 10 can’t think and we can all thank school teachers and the liberal school board takeovers for that…
Sheesh. Just Some Headlines?
Whaat???!!! You think these will get your blood pressure off the peg?
Global Markets A “Sea Of Green” After Trump Temporarily Eases Huawei Restrictions . Which is still incomprehensible to us, except maybe as a tariff talks gambit.
Same boat as Sears? J.C. Penney posts worse-than-expected drop in same-store sales, shares drop.
Home, home on the Rain: Home Depot same-store sales misses on wet weather, lumber prices . Oklahoma flooding clean-ups continue this morning. One more round of storms due through here this afternoon and then maybe (finally!) we will get a 90F day.
Russia Remixing the Vatican? Russia is Building Secret $43M Mansion for Orthodox Patriarch, Media Reports.
And the NY Times business section continues to out-class the rest of the paper with stories like DealBook Briefing: What a Digital Iron Curtain Could Mean for Tech . Still, the rest of the paper has some useful content. Like this story about how Germany is experiencing a rise in Antisemitism.
How long as who been telling you history rhymes and so do the numbers? We’ve taken to scanning beer hall gatherings.
Off to another day of adventures and writing. Come back for ‘moron the ‘mortrow…