Crash Timing: Going for the Juglar?

We have just passed the 10-year anniversary of the 2009 market wash-out lows.  Where we head next is a worthwhile discussion.

There are plenty of economic cycles to choose from:  There it the “presidential market cycle” which is likely more correlated to the 3-5-year Kitchin Cycle.  Then there’s the “10-year real estate cycle” which is nothing more than the 7-11-year Juglar Cycle.

Modern economics downplays the value of cycle work, because the data is not as predictable to the formulaic quants (quantitative analysts) who do math, but little other thinking.  As a result, when you hit Wikipedia, about all you’ll find on the Juglar Cycle is this shorty:

“The Juglar cycle is a fixed investment cycle of 7 to 11 years identified in 1862 by Clément Juglar.[1] Within the Juglar cycle one can observe oscillations of investments into fixed capital and not just changes in the level of employment of the fixed capital (and respective changes in inventories), as is observed with respect to Kitchin cycles. 2010 research employing spectral analysis confirmed the presence of Juglar cycles in world GDP dynamics.”

We have a very high confidence-interval that longer waves in the economy exist, such as the Kondratieff (Kondratiev) wave.  There is also evidence, based on work done with a colleague years back, of a long “currency cycle” that may last up to 83.5-years ideally, but who knows how far Modern Monetary Theory can manipulate past that?

What makes Juglar’s cycle so interesting is they seem to fit loosely with successive waves of technological innovation.  We can almost look back at recent history and see how innovation breaks around 10-year marks.

The most blatant of the 10-year marks was the run-up from 1990 to 2000 in what was dubbed the Internet Bubble and promptly collapsed in 2001 (at the 11-year mark).  However, this was masked (almost too conveniently for our tastes) by the outbreak of “terrorism” and the Twin Towers.

From 2000’s ashes came a new spate on technology build:  Online services and ERP.  In this period, we saw everything from online accounting system (QuickBooks Online, for example) to ERP platforms and group collaboration, scheduling, and work groups.

Oh, it’s also when the Housing Bubble was planted by the Federal Reserve which (negligently, in our view) loosened money and housing ownership qualifications resulting in the 2007-2008 spike top in the housing market.  Then we saw the decline of the burst bubble which bottomed in April of 2009.  Which, we have to remind, exactly fits with Juglar.

Cycles are never precise.  They are noisy.  The noise factors include technical innovation, usefulness of the “new thing” and the availability of capital to throw into the new….whatever.

Since 2009, we have been living in a “phony” economy.  The one built on phones.  The “smarter” the phone, the dumber the user, as we figure it.  But, with phones now out-populating the whole planet… well, let’s just say there’s an App for everything now and 5-G is just around the corner.

Could things look any better for the economy?  Depends who you ask.

On the technological front, there are problems emerging with 5G.  Not only are the frequencies used higher, but there are increasing numbers of “experts” who are putting their names to warning documents such as this one.

“We are scientists engaged in the study of biological and health effects of non-ionizing electromagnetic fields (EMF). Based upon peer-reviewed, published research, we have serious concerns regarding the ubiquitous and increasing exposure to EMF generated by electric and wireless devices. These include–but are not limited to–radiofrequency radiation (RFR) emitting devices, such as cellular and cordless phones and their base stations, Wi-Fi, broadcast antennas, smart meters, and baby monitors as well as electric devices and infra-structures used in the delivery of electricity that generate extremely-low frequency electromagnetic field (ELF EMF).”

There are some hard realities ahead for 5G, not the least of which is dinging all the needed tower spaces and then meeting signal strength requirements both on the low side for coverage and on the high side for maximum permissive exposure limits.  Oh, and money:  This could be in the hundreds of billions to build out and that will all, over time, end up in your wireless bill.

A side note:  One of our satellite nodes here in the woods has a 5G connection which is useful at times when the other internet onramps are down.  But, we actually feel a bit better when the 5G is off.

We have been urging people to read about the dangers of electromagnetic pollution for years; going back to the HAARP experiments.  A definitive foundational read (which will get you from fluorescent lights up to cell phones) is Becker and Selden’s “The Body Electric: Electromagnetism And The Foundation Of Life.”  It’s about $10-bucks on Amazon Kindle.  With it, you’ll have a better understanding of “smart-metering” and emerging technologies like 5G.

Although I’m a pretty serious ham  radio operator, I do pay attention to how much time I’m actually “on the air transmitting” and it generally runs one hour a week key-down (or less) even in the relatively benign HF spectrum.  Remember, the higher you go, the more ionizing radiation becomes.

Too much WiFi may be bad for you:.

A list of 2.4Ghz WLAN channels is here, but they run from 2,412 to 2.484 Ghz.  The kicker is that’s right next door to the frequency used to cook food in the microwave: 2.45 Ghz.

This is why, if your wifi isn’t strong in the kitchen and you are streaming Amazon for iHeart Radio in the morning (like we do because reception of WOAI out of San Antonio is poor on regular AM, especially during storms), the streaming will drop out for part of the 3:13 it takes to microwave a mess of bacon… A lot of people ignore such coincidences because they don’t understand how streaming and buffering work, but that’s another half-hour rap you don’t have time for this morning.

But, yes, we do check the microwave regularly for leakage.  Detector are under $20-bucks like the HT-M2 High Precision Digital LCD Display Microwave Leak Detector 0-9.99mW/cm2 black & yellow.

Our bottom line (other than selling you a microwave oven leak detector and checking your microwave, router, phones, and such) is just to remind you that “tick-tock” – the market will be going “for the Juglar” one of these days so best not to be present on the long-side when it happens.

Cowardice has a better retirement policy than bravery.

Must Reads:  CBDs and LAWS

My buddy Gaye Levy, who’s been a pal since 1973, has a brilliant discussion of CBD Oils up on her StrategicLivingBlog over here. Hell of an article and explains much and why that “hemp oil” crap doesn’t work unless you get the legit stuff.  (Or smoke, lol.)

Second mention is about tomorrow’s report which is about “Prepping for the LAWS” – Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems”:  wherein I reveal just an inkling about an NDA I’ve been on for years related to…

Two damn fine reads so you’ll have some actual brain food (ABF) instead of the daily-dose of American Stupidity.

Speaking of Which

New article from the Gallup Poll folks ought to scare you into swallowing the red pill:  “Four in 10 Americans Embrace Some Form of Socialism.” ISYN, this is how idioticans end up in high places, like the cerebrally-deficient Cortex, if you follow.

Back in the 1950’s – in the wake of the left-wing rebellion against the Joe McCarthy hearings, which actually did find bits of a conspirary of international socialism to take down America, the John Birch Society called out educators in particular for leading the left’s charge into the flanks of core American values.

Well, here we are, almost 70-years-on, and between the “occupiers” and Berkeley and cerebral Cortex and BS…Bernie Sanders…the data at some point becomes incontrovertible.  Well, except it’s not, because 4 in 10 Americans really are idiots.  So says the polling data.

A curative visit to Venezuela, Russia, or China during the Cultural Revolution would clarify things, but 4-out of 10 can’t think and we can all thank school teachers and the liberal school board takeovers for that…

Sheesh.  Just Some Headlines?

Whaat???!!!  You think these will get your blood pressure off the peg?

Global Markets A “Sea Of Green” After Trump Temporarily Eases Huawei Restrictions .  Which is still incomprehensible to us, except maybe as a tariff talks gambit.

Same boat as Sears? J.C. Penney posts worse-than-expected drop in same-store sales, shares drop.

Home, home on the Rain: Home Depot same-store sales misses on wet weather, lumber prices . Oklahoma flooding clean-ups continue this morning.  One more round of storms due through here this afternoon and then maybe (finally!) we will get a 90F day.

Russia Remixing the Vatican? Russia is Building Secret $43M Mansion for Orthodox Patriarch, Media Reports.

And the NY Times business section continues to out-class the rest of the paper with stories like DealBook Briefing: What a Digital Iron Curtain Could Mean for Tech .  Still, the rest of the paper has some useful content.  Like this story about how Germany is experiencing a rise in Antisemitism.

How long as who been telling you history rhymes and so do the numbers?  We’ve taken to scanning beer hall gatherings.

Off to another day of adventures and writing.  Come back for ‘moron the ‘mortrow…

48 thoughts on “Crash Timing: Going for the Juglar?”

  1. Given that the posts on your site look more like 60% leftist trolls in sheep attire, I would say 40% is a low estimate. If you read up on the history of socialism in this country, you find that most of the original socialist agenda was adopted during the last century at the federal level, and the last big socialist program which has failed to pass muster was the push for socialized universal single-payer health care.
    Given how tightly regulated the health industry is in all but one measure, greed, you can argue that we already have socialized medicine, with just a very crude, inefficient and predatory form. Of course, a single payer system will be just as predatory, with different folk at the top of the food chain. This is why Bernie is a one-issue candidate. This country has already implemented every other major socialist objective, with the exception of single-party rule.
    And looking at the minuscule differences between the D and R agendas, one can argue that we already have a two-wing single-gang stealth leftist system in place. Everything else is just competition between gang factions for resources. Very little has changed in the last three years, other than spin.

    • As bad as the right is(Bush, Bush, and maybe Trump), the left has impinged far more on my life and caused me to retreat from society(Clinton, Hildog, Obama). Their spew sounds grossly unAmerican. It’s not freedom when an individual can’t go his own way when harming nobody. The push toward socialism is encouraging laziness and any desire to help the common good.

      I take care of my own health, for better or worse. The current choices are not worth engaging with.

    • “And looking at the minuscule differences between the D and R agendas, one can argue that we already have a two-wing single-gang stealth leftist system in place.”

      What’s not to comprehend? Beats me! ;-(

      • Oh Bruno, the last Wigg president was #13 Millard Fillmore and he won against the Democratic-Republican party. Which later split to what we have today. Originally the democrat’s split from the Democratic Republican party because they opposed Jackson economic policy. Second attempt at the banks running the nations money, which Jackson got whacked for. First attempt the banks made at taling over the US money system was Lincoln, he got whacked too. People think he got whacked because of slavery. But they never do any research about what was really going on. The banks funded both the north and the south war. They just used slavery as a propaganda to get people all fired up about. Which was and is a hot issue. … the whole civil war was about the banks trying to take over the US monetary system and policy. So they did the “divide and conquer” but it didnt work. Lol.

        Anyway. The 13th presodent was the last independent to win an election IMO

  2. Interesting link RE: Russia building the Orthodox Patriarch his own ecclesiastical manor. China has recently declared that the state will determine who will be the next Dali Llama, not the traditional Tibetan method of Buddhist monks examining adolescent candidates. Russia and China realize the power religions have over the masses and the potential for state ideological exploitation of these religions. Iranian and Saudi leaders are lock-step with mullahs and Muslim clerical types. Israel is a decidedly Jewish democracy. Are we seeing a trend of currently non-denominational nation states turning to theocrats in order to insure their own long-term political survival?

    • Religions have always played their part even in America,the early days were a bit*h because you could always be burned at the stake for being a witch if deemed so by the preacher,many left Mass. for N.Y. because of the preachers,old Bush and Billy Graham went to church, and good ole Billy come out says yep war is good attack Iraq.Then go back to the War of Aggression where the preachers preached endless war with the South,after all they don’t call it the bloody pulpit for nothing you know, and of course today the South will back any president that kiss’s Israels twin cheeks ask Trump about that,so its not just other countries and their religions for ALL countries play the same game.

      As far as socialism we have played that game for a long long long time,for what are subsidies except socialism,corporate subsidies,agriculture subsidies in all forms,what are all those companies and corporations getting as they feed off the pentagon, from hamburger’s to band-aides except social hand outs or socialism,Reagan made a mess out of health care(along with everything else) when he brayed that everything should make a profit in America (creating many overnight millionaire’s as they rushed to set up health care and become a health care provider) as he destroyed a health care system that had worked for years,a not for profit system.So what should people expect other than a mess of/in society, and seeing they broke it they own it, I want no part of it.!!!

  3. If the cellphone is not good for your health
    How about driving Tesla
    car with all that batteries under your seat.

    • No issues with Tesla’s. While the battery is always on, it is DC. The battery itself cannot produce any EMF. While stationary and inside the car, any EMF…very small is from the display – similar to any laptop or TV display, I’m guessing around 60 Hz for the display update. There could be some additional radiation from the DC-DC inverter that charges the 12v battery, just like in any car. I’d guess this is in the 15 KHz region, also quite safe. This is similar to most laptop’s power adapter, as most use a switching power supply design in the 15 kHz range.

    • A/B… cell phones themselves are not dangerous.. in your pocket.. where the danger comes in is when you are talking on one.. they emit an emf field when transmitting radio waves where the danger lies in the cell phones transmission of the radio waves directly in your ear close to your brain.kind of like putting a mini microwave horn up to your ear and turning it on..(maybe that is why there seems to be so many brain dead people now days. who knows. ( the vibrations or frequency that is emitted is the danger.. I believe in harmonics and everything is a frequency.. since I would write a book posting my theory I won’t..bore everyone with an old mans thoughts on it).
      like a microwave but at a slower frequency so it takes longer to roast that size of an organ…. the tesla like any electric car is shielded except like what Mark pointed out.. the screens etc.. you have more danger from the cell phone towers and the shielded electrical in buildings and overhead lines..

      I could bury you for a while with the crap I have read on the subject.. but the few above should give you an idea.. that is why the huge controversy on smart meters etc to.. they are nothing more than a cell phone frequency,..
      the tesla.. its safer than the wires outside your car as you drive down the road..

  4. Chief – P.T Barnum was out yesterday, unh I mean jerome powell was out yesterday with a warning on RISKY level of corporate debt in tech sector. Powell said he did Not rank the danger alongside what subprime mortgages did in 2007. Think he is full of IT – Liars Figure and Figures Lie.
    The level of junk in tech sector is mind blowing too such a small mind as my own; WeWork, Tesla, Uber to name just a few in news lately. Majority of tech corp debt is rated BBB or lower.

    10 plus years of Monetizing Equity thru debt fueled Buy Backs – makes corps weaker, not stronger & falsely values stock markets.

    Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction (FWMD) – thats what W. Buffet calls Financial Derivatives – and Deutsch Bank has largest “book” of derivatives on the planet.

    No worries though – the “junk,crap, made up, digital tulip – are now accepted at Whole Foods.
    The “Halving” is coming, Litecoin this summer, Bitcoin next year – Mining Reward gets cut n Half – wonder what effect this might have on price in future.

    Going Fishing today..bottom fishing for Low/Lowest cost producers of Silver.

  5. George,
    Before you call those 4 in 10 Americans idiots, make sure you take inventory of who is in that group. Could it be the oil industry with it’s $4,6 billion in subsidies, or the farming industry with it’s $13.2 billion in subsidies, which is now higher due to promises Trump made when he slapped tariffs on China (most of that goes to Archer Daniels Midland BTW) or the too big to fail banks and the bailouts they received?

    Now take the near zero interest loans for financial institutions from 2009- 2017 from the Fed…yet another hidden form of corporate welfare.

    Overall Corporate Welfare costs American taxpayers over $150 billion a year. And, that’s growing exponentially with the Trump administration.

    However, when these same types of programs are used to fund individual citizen needs, the critics come out of the closet and rail that we are on the path towards becoming Venezuela. We are not…that’s a scare tactic.

    What we do need to fix is the fraud at the consumer and corporate level. Probably more at the corporate, but a fair share of consumer fraud as well. Too many entitlements at both ends that need to be wrangled in and then managed.

  6. IMHO, we need to mitigate the trade war. Ultimately, it’s hurting people with a weird redistribution of wealth from importers of materials and assemblies to government to who knows where. We do need to redress the imbalance of trade and it needs to be done in a way that pinches trade only a little. Until we’ve rebuilt infrastructure(from profits), we can’t really afford throw too many stones. China rebuilt itself and so can we.

    I felt really sad about the alleged 40% of socialist inclined Americans. I’ve never asked for favors and resent the idea that what I built wasn’t built by me. I have good friends that are survivors of the Cultural Revolution and their stories would cause your hair to turn gray and fall out. I read about Venezuela daily and feel grief for those who must endure it. The nonsense I see on campus resembles performance art and hate rallies rather than free speech. There’s no such thing as equality when the majority of the male population is excluded.

    The lust for money may be the root of all evil but money itself is capable of much good. We’re wasting it with abandon to the detriment of America.

    The latest attempt to use regional circuit courts to affect national policy needs to be addressed by the supremes immediately. This can quickly geld the entire executive branch.

  7. “well, let’s just say there’s an App for everything now and 5-G is just around the corner”

    Theres an app for that…
    years ago Sony quit selling the sony camcorder with low level light recording capabilities. Seemed that what should be private wasn’t anymore with them…..

    the technology instead has been used for fire departments and airport scanners…. seems you can look underneath it all at the heat signature….,g_auto,h_1248,w_2220/f_auto,q_auto,w_1100/v1555928603/shape/mentalfloss/xray_5.jpg

    a few years ago… people were getting in trouble for taking up the skirt pictures..

    Now you can buy the technology.. for your cell phone or tablet.. no need for funky mirrors on your shoes.. its all a business model lets go to the mall..

    want to do an ekg.. I got my ACLS ( advanced cardiac life support ) Certification because my father had a bad heart and I wanted to be able to read his strips…. worked in the monitor room.. interesting work…
    hospitals have a tech for everything..
    why use the high paying employees when you can use their license and put them in a position to monitor the techs.. ..
    and now you can get your own ekg for a few bucks and do the strips at home…theres an app for that…
    everyone knows already that I think everyone should have one AED at home. the average person is ten minutes away or longer for an ambulance crew’s arrival.. every second is crucial in a cardiac event. what if its a loved one.. what if its a fancy watch new couch but heck.. why would I want that box on the hall or bathroom wall… I have two in our home…one with pediatric pads as well as adult.. (kids are not allowed in the shop ). one in the shop and one in the house the house one has the ped’s pads in it…. ;you have a poor chance of ultimately surviving a cardiac event if you don’t have one.

    and the survival if you do have one is just a little bit better.

    .Now you can get all the emergency gear… have a strip print
    aed and strip ready if the ambulance or flight for life is called…

  8. George

    “longer waves in the economy exist, such as the Kondratieff (Kondratiev) wave”.

    Was the 2008 / 2009 time frame when we had the last Kondratiev winter or are we still waiting?

    I was listening to Ground Zero radio last night and the guest was talking about the military use of minature truck towed HAARP units that can be used to manipulate local weather.

    The general theme of last nights show was the world wide manipulation of weather and the negative consequences. There are even private companies that will give you a sunny or rainy day for pay.

    “And she’s buying a stairway to heaven!”

  9. ” The “smarter” the phone,…”

    The phones are the computers.

    Do you remember the first laptop PC’s? People were snapping luggage handles onto desktops and calling them portables. Men were paid to go into to the field and reinsert video cards because they loosened up during shipping.

    The invention we need is a docking station/port replicator for our phones. Snap the phone into the monitor where it connects to the peripherals and recharges.

    Or use Apple AirPlay and beam to the monitor. Still have the full size keyboard/mouse to contend with. Bluetooth would work but battery life of the phone is iffy.

    I think we all called Blackberry (like Sears) and offered them the answers.

  10. George,
    “4 in 10 Americans embrace some form of socialism” . Lay that over the i q bell curve. Hmmm

    • Not true, unfortunately. I know several extremely intelligent individuals who’re pro-commie / pro-socialist. Neither History nor Civics are taught in schools, and haven’t been since the 1970s. They have been replaced with indoctrination classes, and the independent study of social sciences and historical perspectives is both ridiculed and discouraged.

  11. George, another interesting, excellent economic piece. Thank you. Always love getting your take (albeit had I followed your calls the past 10 years, it would have cost me millions).

    But, think you need to get up to date a bit. Get into the 21st century. The War’s over. Capitalism won. Socialism lost. (Condolences, Mr. Lebowski. The bums lost. LOL.)

    The debate now is how to regulate the pernicious aspects of capitalism. And close the ever growing wealth gap, and stem the growing decline of Macro Demand. For example, had Bush II and the R’s not turned a regulatory blind eye to the banks (not to mention run up the debt so excessively), we likely would not have had the Great Recession. Best, Mike.

      • NO he doesn’t. The Dem held congress that mandated through law that the financial institutions loan to people that could never pay for the homes they got is one issues. Dodd stupid Frank is the other issue. Why the Rbubes didn’t reverse that and others financial crap pulled by Mike’s heros is why we are in such a sorry state today. Mike never sounds smart. Under control and on meds maybe.

  12. George,
    There is an unchallenged assumption underlying the socialism story. To wit “universal suffrage is an inherent good”. I would submit that this is not the case. Individuals capable of critical thinking and born with common sense are drowned out by the mob. The drafters of the Constitution were trying to sail between the Sycila and charybdis of tyranny and mob rule. Hence the electoral college. Yet today we seem to want to recreate the French revolution (extreme job rule).

  13. Once 1970s ended US dominance in oil production at 25 a barrel money printing became necessary. Since 1970 when a nice home was 25K that home now is 900K… no way to fix it… as fuel prices above 25 mean no way to recovery what is spent.. just print more.. Fast forward.. at about 50% depletion.. and needing 50-70 oil for food infrastructure eating… oil goes up…

    • The microwave was designed to reheat coffee & defrost English muffins for an eggs benedict breakfast without the hollandaise sause. Otherwise it has no purpose except as a spare clock. I prefer to reheat pizza in a toaster oven.

  14. Based on the latest news…real…not made up by any means, is proof that Trump is running a criminal enterprise out of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

    First let’s talk about freedom of the press. Trump has been whining and name calling anyone on Fox News that dares to interview a Democrat. Fox’s recent Town Hall with Mayor Pete didn’t settle too well with Trump, causing him to write a couple of weird tweets”

     · May 19, 2019
    Hard to believe that @FoxNews is wasting airtime on Mayor Pete, as Chris Wallace likes to call him. Fox is moving more and more to the losing (wrong) side in covering the Dems. They got dumped from the Democrats boring debates, and they just want in. They forgot the people…..
    ….who got them there. Chris Wallace said, “I actually think, whether you like his opinions or not, that Mayor Pete has a lot of substance…fascinating biography.” Gee, he never speaks well of me – I like Mike Wallace better…and Alfred E. Newman will never be President!

    What a jerk! No Matter what your politics, Mayor Pete is a Rhodes scholar, an Afghanistan war veteran and a guy who is getting into a race because he cares…Calling him Alfred E. Newman is just plain sophomoric. But the comment that got me was “Gee he never speaks well of me”

    Yes Dumb Don, if they don’t bow down to you it’s off with their head right?

    And Donald Dunce continued—and with a bit of shade to Chris Wallace…”I like Mike Wallace better”. He is trying to control the conversation and the media with a statement like this. How dare Chris Wallace…who in Trumps eyes is no Mike Wallace…Say a nice word to anyone but Trump. That’s mob mentality at it’s finest. His name is not only Don, he thinks he is the mafia “Don”

    He tweeted a few weeks ago, complaining about Fox giving Bernie airtime…Again, he blasted the Fox hosts, calling them out and mocking their ratings…Trying to control the media and it’s content…That’s unconstitutional, but his base turns a blind eye.

    Now he wants to pardon war crime criminals…where does it end? Did they write a nicey-nice letter to Don telling him how wonderful he is and he now wants them free? maybe he is hiring them as his own henchmen. If that’s the case, watch out. Crime could rise, if this gets out. The now POTUS who once said he could shoot a guy in the street and still get elected, just may have to deal with actual people shooting each other in the street…as long as they are wearing a MAGA hat and a tattoo of Trump on their arm, they will get pardoned.

    Now a GOP Senator is actually growing a pair and not kowtowing to his his weaker colleagues and all of a sudden he is a “loser” according to Trump. What happened to civility? If someone criticizes me for something they didn’t like, I am the first person to talk to them to ask them what I could have done to make it better. It’s the conversation that has to happen in a situation like that. 99% of the time it’s resolved.. Trump doesn’t want the conversation…because he is insecure and can’t handle the truth about himself.

    • Democrats have nothing to offer the American People in 2020. They therefore HAVE TO run on a platform ideology of fear and innuendo, if they hope to have any success in the upcoming election. The House Democrats have been waiting for an opportunity to provoke Mr. Trump as a political stunt. They chose this particular meeting in which to do so.

      “Rhodes Scholar” doesn’t impress me. The scholarship has been used since the “McCarthy Era” to suck “morally pliable” kids of promise out of American schools and indoctrinate them into Stalinist globalism. Pete Buttigieg is an intellectual idiot with nothing to offer which would improve the American Experiment. He got into the race because a certain ex-NAZI financier slipped him $5mln in seed money, said financier having learned that the only way to beat a U.S. Presidential candidate who possesses even the weakest of substance is to field a candidate which can not be attacked, then market him(her) to a substantial, but politically ignorant, voting bloc…

  15. …So I’ll post in pieces, until I identify the offending word.

    A continuation of the “4 in 10 embrace socialism” thing:

    The “neo-socialists” look at Norway as the shining example of a socialist country. They’re not informed that Norway has a very small and quite static population and some of the most draconian immigration policies in the world, or that the Norwegian Government is an outlier amongst the World’s governing authorities because (thanks to the oil fields) it is a net moneymaking enterprise.

    They’re not taught the “way of the revolution,” meaning they have little clue about purges, other than people they don’t know, but hate anyway, will die.

    A purge initiated by a successful imperial movement, ALWAYS progresses as follows:

    You kill or imprison the political opposition,
    then the popular opposition,
    THEN you kill off the intellectual idiots — those “smart people” who helped your cause, but could someday mount an opposition should they ever acquire a clue,
    then you get rid of those who’re an irrevocable drag on society — the elderly, infirm, incorrigibly lazy, and those who’re “sexually confused” or “misgendered,” — pretty much everyone who could become a “distraction” to your Greater Agenda.

    • It was at this point that Lenin turned his focus to The Church and Hitler, those of Hebrew lineage (except himself.) In a successful overthrow of the U.S., I’d assume the revolutionaries would begin to purge the “wealthy,” since that’s the bogeyman of every Socialist or Communist movement… ‘Course, that won’t include Bill De Blasio or Katy Perry… Um, until it does. (I suspect those with a net worth above $800mln or so, who’re not otherwise dangerous to the “movement,” will be chartered into the oligarchical class and exempted from purges, as long as they never publicly quote from the Constitution, which shouldn’t be difficult for the vast majority.)

      • Are you suggesting that the bulk of the Republican Markcist dupes will be the first to go to the camps, and only the oligarchs will remain, but as puppets of their leftist masters?
        Once the wealth is sufficiently concentrated in the US, it only costs a box of 7.62 ammo to clean out a reactionary pocket. The oligarchs stay in place as long as they support the Party line, because they are proven masters of labor exploitation, which is always a major goal of the leftists. This would resemble the current Chinese fascist socialist model. The Chinese kicked Maoist communism to the ditch some time back, and have embraced a fascist socialist model with oligarchs on a tight leash. Unfortunately, this model has a historical track record of becoming corrupt, violent and imperialistic, which we are now seeing with the Chinese.
        With Chinese money pouring into the US from their scofflaws and the Party both, it would explain why we hear staunch Republicans wanting to “engage” the Chinese in discussions of the benefits of their system, in an attempt to break into the D’s gravy train queue. Left coast actors, educators, developers, realtors, and of course, tech oligarchs seem to have been the first wave to be successfully reeducated by the Chinese, but at a relatively high cost. Camps will be required for the reeducation of the other soon-to-be ex-wealthy, but at a much lower cost (like $1 a head).

      • That’s adorable! You think they’ll make it to the re-education camps…

        No, they and their Democratic Marxist dupe antagonists will share common, unmarked graves, on the path to the camps.

        The oligarchs who remain will be people like Gates and Buffett, Soros and (most of) the Walton sibs. Oprah might make it into the club but I doubt any other entertainer will; they’ll be stripped of the majority of their wealth and told to like it and appreciate their status, or die. This’ll be necessary because even though the Socialists in Charge pillage the middle class and disappear it, they’ll need a mess of court jesters to keep people from missing the Vaseline. Otherwise, they’d strip them completely.

        Folks I’ve heard speak, picture “socialist lifestyle” as living in a country cottage, in the British (Scotch, Irish, French, etc.) countryside and with few cares. No one considers where “socialism” in the ROW would go, if it weren’t for the balancing political influence (and to a lesser degree, conspicuous consumption) of the U.S. (and by “balancing political influence,” I refer to our National Charter, not the narcissistic sonsabitches who are currently running the show in D.C. and elsewhere…)

      • p.s. You are very astute. Not very many people have noticed that the ChiComs are little more than “communist in name only.” This might be because the term “fascist” has totally lost its meaning in modern society, becoming a derogatory, rather than descriptive term, or it might just be becuz we’z dumb.

      • Ray- American leftist fascists are obsessed with technology, secrecy, and deception. Whether the one dollar solution is applied outside the gate or inside, the camps are where the bodies will be processed. 250+ million shallow graves wouldn’t be very secret or techie.

      • “Ray- American leftist fascists are obsessed with technology, secrecy, and deception.”

        Oh, I’m well-aware. It’s the tech, and ego, that sucks ’em in. They become so convinced of their own cleverness that simple solutions escape them. Civilian Americans don’t keep secrets very well and positively suck at deception. Eventually secrets aren’t, deceptions fail, and they fall back to obfuscation and information overload. By putting out tons of garbage and conflicting information, truth gets hidden in plain sight, amongst all the noise, and anyone who speaks it can be easily discredited.

        The simple solution to the “inside or outside the gate” problem is to do a “Matrix” and turn the piles into batteries. The historical solution is simply to shut off information flow, and not allow independent inspections… ‘Worked for Lenin, Stalin, and Mao.

      • No. It sounds like the left coast (California), the other left coast (New York), and the developing left coast (Texas).
        The leftist’s strategy has been to concentrate efforts in coastal States with large immigrant populations, in order to secure a majority in the House at the Federal level, not to mention overwhelming the local political machines.
        The current leftist goal is to disrupt the system while packing the civil service ranks with their minions. Directing the law and order jackboot revenuer crowd to attack their political enemies under false circumstance is the left’s big legislative push, at the Federal, State and Local levels.
        Note that I said leftists, not D’s. Both the dominant political gangs are embracing leftist dogma these days, with the D’s completely compromised, and the R’s partially.
        This isn’t being done in back rooms and alleys anymore. The left is pushing their agenda on mainstreet with the help of their corporate brown shirt sponsors. Business and activist groups previously not involved are being weaponized on behalf of leftist interests.

      • Ah, “Logan’s Run…”

        Wasn’t Jenny Agutter hot?

        No, I see several possible scenarios unfolding in our future. A “Logan’s Run” redux (minus the hand-jewel) would be the mildest, and the eventual play-out of the SJW/Obamacare meme, should nothing derail it.

        My essay (provided one can reassemble it) is a commentary on the pro-socialist youth of today. How they’re not all stupid, but they ARE all uneducated and easily influenced. Thence an extrapolation of a scenario to which their ignorance could lead us, based on Hitler’s purges and what little we know of Lenin’s and Mao’s.

  16. Next part:

    “Socialism” and “Communism” are not interchangeable terms. Socialism is a sociopolitical ideology; communism is a fiscal ideology and is both the easiest, and the preferred means of managing the finances of a socialist system. Mussolini created a non-communist fiscal ideology for managing a socialist system, a corporatist/socialist hybrid which the few of us who still read, know as the true meaning of the term “Fascism.”

    • Socialism, under either fiscal ideology, is a two-class, caste system comprised of a minuscule, wealthy elite and ruling class (the “oligarchs,”) — and everyone else. It is characterized by a huge, “top-down” centralized government which attempts to manage all facets of society and of each individual’s existence, of which it is made aware. As in any other caste system, there is virtually no possibility of movement between the castes except up, by repeated demonstration of extraordinary talent and ability, or down, by committing crimes against the State that’re not sufficient to warrant extermination.

      • Socialists work on the good-old-boy-and-girl system, not on merit or lack of. Just outing, or even insulting a local Party stooge can be a capital offense. The American version relies on gang stalking by social media to justify and solicit execution of that sentence, rather than State jackboots, at least for now. Anyone who doesn’t think that system isn’t already up and running in this country under the guise of business trade and social equality associations is living in that left coast bubble.

  17. Last part:

    The neo-socialist kiddies I know, even those who’re extremely intelligent, believe, without reason or rhyme (or monetary or social status) that “after the revolution,” they’ll be included in the ruling class or their “lot in life” significantly elevated, based solely on the sanctity of their belief in a system of governance of which they know nothing. A household income of $34,682 per year puts one in the “top 1%” of income-earners, worldwide. Yet when I ask the neocoms (Like it? Me, too, and it’s another original “Rayism…”) how okay they’ll be with living on $500 per month forever, they invariably get p!ssed and unload the most biologically-unlikely invictives upon me…

    There’s a reason, a really, really STRONG reason, why I suggest that people should read “The 5000 Year Leap…”

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