A reader was wondering why our Peoplenomics.com column Wednesday didn’t focus on the firing of FBI whozzit James Comey.
The answer is simple. But it deserves some discussion here.
That’s because Peoplenomics is about making money, getting a sustainable lifestyle going, and getting good value in return for the hard work you put into life. From this perspective, Comey placed a weak second place to a bigger story: Our outlook for Bitcoin pricing in coming months.
You see, in GeorgeLand, there has to be a “use case” for news.
Oh, sure, I covered the Watergate mess with Nixon and all, but that was a case where the smoking guns were all over the place. Even so, while it was nearly a Constitutional crisis, in the end Nixon resigned and end of story. So it all worked out.
The Comey case has no such weight. After 7-months, and a total FBI failure to plug Obama embed leaks about many critical policies, Comey wanted a big increase in budget to do the job he should have already completed.
In other words, he wanted to go fishing.
Given his emphasis didn’t seem to line up with what America’s interests were, he was given the boot. But I’m confident that at least Hillary Clinton and Barack O. will weigh in…it’s just the way such thing operate.
Hell, Comey might even get himself a book deal.
But on to this morning’s point: Was there – or is there today – any way that you could personally profit or become more valuable as a person from having excruciating details about Comey’s boot?
I don’t see it.
We chose in Peoplenomics to relegate the Comey story to second lead…but it didn’t rise to the strategically important level that we use when selecting stories for our Focus section in Peoplenomics.
That’s the part – after a dozen or more charts in my unique way of looking at Aggregate Markets – that has done things like getting us long in November when no one else was making such calls.
And for what it is worth, we remain long today because of the method I laid out for short-term trading in the ChartPack Wednesday.
I led with Bitcoin pricing because several subscribers had requested an update.
It’s sometimes a little frustrating for me to do things like updates on Bitcoin. I said a long time ago (3+ years) that BTCs would likely head back toward $2,000 per ounce, but not until a wave 2 down was complete.
And that went down to the $280 region.
As I was thinking about BTCs on a trip up to Tyler, Texas Wednesday, though, a somewhat frightening thought came along.
Maybe – instead of looking at BTCs purely from a fiduciary standpoint (I love fiduches, though) I should look at them a “Predictive Currensolovency.”
Look here…let me get out the big graphics toolkit and ‘splain you, Lucy…
First thing I want you to look at is this 4-year view of BTC pricing…
The key thing is look at the timespan: See how it will take from Jan 2015 to this summer to do one (peak to peak) wave?
Call it 2 1/2 years…with me so far? One up, two down, three up in Elliott terms.
Then we should have four down (wave 4 correction) and then blast into a final top in another…well, how about 2 1/2 years?.
Let’s run it out here: Say we get the peak July 1 this summer to make things easy. Not saying it will be so – could be over before or after.
But then we would expect the wave 4 down (price predictions in the Peoplenomics report Wednesday) and then a final blow-off top. That top should come right around year-end of 2019 into 2020.
And all THAT would fit perfectly with my consigliere’s work (from 1979) that it’s about here you can expect nuclear, chemical, and biological war.
(Is this fun, or what?)
There is a rhyme, of course.
I think where BTCs will go, after the recovery from WW III will be much the same role as Trading Stamps in the earlier period of history:
“The use of trading stamps grew with the spread of chain gasoline stations in the early 1910s and the then new industry of chain supermarkets in the 1920s. Merchants found it more profitable to award them to all customers rather than cash only customers. Legal challenges regarding the use of trading stamps were raised in various jurisdictions around the United States but were often struck down. Some merchant groups disliked trading stamps and actively worked to have them banned in their areas. Following World War II the use of trading stamps expanded when supermarkets began issuing them as a customer incentive. By 1957 it was estimated that nearly 250,000 retail outlets were issuing trading stamps with nearly two thirds of American households saving various trading stamps. During this time trading stamp companies had between 1,400 – 1,600 retail centers were consumers could redeem their trading stamps for consumer goods. In the early 1960s, the S&H Green Stamps company boasted that it printed more stamps annually than the number of postage stamps printed by the US government. In 1968 it was reported that more than $900 million in stamps were sold in the United States.“
So do BTC’s eventually become a kind of analog to the trading stamps? Remember, there have been trading stamps with stated equivalent cash values.
Makes more sense that getting grocery store “credits” than won’t work anywhere else.
I see retailers gathering around the BTCs as a kind of super trading stamp providing an interest and novel evolutionary track for BTCs, but time will tell and let’s see which our targets “come in” for Wave 3 up.
Sorry to get off into a PN-like discussion, but lots of people ask all the time about BTCs.
Write when you get rich,