Coping: Social Waves and Stock Waves

Long term readers of this website know that I am a huge fan of cycles.

Some of them are in your face, like fall, winter, spring, into summer.  And others, like the more general social cycles are harder to see and understand.

The idea that there are social cycles is most easily seen not directly, but by what we believe in.

For example, because liberalism (and its pals deficit spending) have pretty much been in a great rise and fall since Marxism came along, we can see how socialism/communism has been little more than a huge wave.

Waves never come alone.

In Elliott theory, as applied to the stock market, you have three and five wave groupings and at sea, you can often find 7, 9, 11, and even 13 wave “sets.”

But to settle on communism as a “wave set” you can see one wave in the Russian revolution, decline, then the Stalin wave (of death), the Khrushchev wave, and finally the ending wave which featured a variety of archetypes.  This last included a joker/drunk, a troika, and so on.

Social waves do not happen in isolation anymore, thanks to the omnipresence of media.

As a result, the bad ideas of communism were, at least in part, adopted in the West.  As they were, we can judge (roughly) our current state ion social cycles, by noticing our thinking about the West’s mirroring of Stalinism in things like the National Recovery Act here in the US.

We can also see where we are in the long wave social cycle, already well documented by authors like Strauss and Howe in The Fourth Turning, by looking at what we believe presently of past events.

Take the last Depression, for example.  The common teaching when I was growing up, was that government deficits and watering down the supply of money must be good, because it helped in the great depression,

Except, that in recent years, we have seen this laid out as a Great Lie.

In short:  If you think the Great Depression was abbreviated in any way by more government, extremely high taxes, and a police state that forced labor unionism on America, think again.  It was as close as we’ve been to communism in many ways.

There’s a fine video on point and the article (and audio book) Great Myths of the Great Depression which springs from the Foundation for Economic Education over here.

Suddenly, the Great Depression seems less like the liberalists “success of Big Government and deficit spending”  and more like an utter failure of both.  Misery prolonged by bad policy.  But, then again, nothing new in that.

As that wave of terror and death passed in Russia, and evolved into the Cold War with the West, the myth was repeated.  And even now that communism/socialism has failed and been cast out of the Soviet Union, a great “tainted thinking” remains in the US in the form of political correctness and utter contempt for the what Donald Trump has tapped into:”the silent majority” in America.

The social wave is no less interesting to watch than the stock market waves.  Although, as any reader of UrbanSurvival, or more so our website knows, the odds of a first major low being completed 55-days from the top of the market seems like a pretty good estimate.

This infers that our current rally will, shortly, complete, and we should continue on down to a significant low which is likely in the September 10-16 range.  As much as anything, this should be accompanied by the Fed NOT raising rates and if they get the wording just right, we should be off on a rally lasting several months which will be a wave 2.

Perhaps because we are in the vicinity of a Super Cycle (and even 250 and 500 year Grand Super Cycle top) it should be instructive to see how closely the social cycles and the market cycles line up.

Which is to hint that Donald Trump, who has a vastly different view of the “right role” of government that either Joe Biden of the current fellow next door, seems to have really soared in poles as the markets have declined.

But, once the first market wave 1 down from early/mid July finishes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hillary Clinton’s fortunes turn a bit as well as ascendancy of the old view of the world, as embodied in modern day democrats, who are still selling the Marxist/social echo that big government is good.

Not that Trump[ is arguing that government isn’t necessary, but it’s all measured in how well it’s executed.

Look for something else to peak:  The last gasps of political correctness which will be undone by the excessive zeal of its followers; the extremists.  As an example, the fellow that killed the TV reporter and cameraman trying to set off a race war.  Ultimately, that’s where political correctness and soft-headed thinking leads.

At its “marketing best” you see (and you can see this with too much government in the Great Depression as well, battering down doors to make sure no one was sewing  clothing in the garment district at night), terms like workers paradise and Utopian society.

The ugly liberalista thinking that is never acknowledged is that every last one of these Utopia peddlers I have questioned, sooner or later reveal that everyone else is part of their scheme.  Except them.

Their special role is that they get to be in charge.  And that’s how all these Utopian dreams (like Russian communism) morph from an interesting collective cooperation into a dystopian nightmare.

As we come up on the 250th anniversary of America, therefore, I will predict the decline of political correctness as we shake of still more of our misguided thinking from the past and begin to realize that the beliefs of the few do not trump (used non politically) the interests of the many.

Should be an interesting show.  But it will be a slow process seeing “political correctness” unwind, although the TV murders will go a long ways.  As will the continued crime wave brought to America by illegal immigrants.

But here’s the point.

People are waking up to political bullshit which much of “political correctness” is.  Would you refer to a plane crash as an “over speed landing”?   

How about this:  Rather than say three people were killed in a head-on car accident on the 405, how about “Three people received permanent tax breaks  when two vehicles stopped abruptly on the 405 this morning…”  Yet this is how mental acuity has been attacked.

Over the next 10-years we will see correctness and mind-control by social-psychology driven foundations slowly rooted out.

One phrase which I expect to decline will be “undocumented alien” which is used by media to “correct” to report the perps were illegals..  In the case of this rape and murder by two illegals in California, you have to read way down into the story to find out yep, illegals from Mexico….again.

I love Mexico, the Mexican people, but I have a problem with criminals and it is against the law to enter the U.S. without documents.  Yet the late wave apologists cry their eyes out about clear thinking. 

The thing to do is here is watch the market levels as we watch the word/thought distortions.  The next 11-years should be a revealing time, indeed.

Real change is a slow-motion thing.  If it were any faster, people would have to admit to their own stupidity and who wants to do that?  It’s one of those things people want to work up to…slowly.

– – –

There are three kinds of people in the world:  Some of us are “future people” and we are always living 10-minutes to 10-years in the future.  Then there are “present people” who are in the hear and now.  But the ones to watch for at the “people past” because they are what holds back the world and prevent us from all “keeping it real.”

A Research Note:  If you ever run across it, I’d sure be interested in any studies you might stumble across linking health, income, and longevity to a person’s temporal orientation.

Word from the WoWW

Here’s the latest from one of our readers who is dealing with the World of Woo-Woo.  That place where things disappear and then reappear and then….

“I’m into the quantum leap. Back in the early 80s, I was putting together a bed and was putting the three wood planks on the rails to hold the box springs.

I put one on, turned around to get another and there was only one left.

All doors and windows were locked from the inside, I had not left the room.  I searched the entire house, it was gone. I had to space out the two boards and use them instead of the three I had. 

A month later, I walk in the room and there was the misdoing board in the exact spot on the floor where I had placed it a month before. I ran to the doors and checked to see if they were unlocked. They were locked from the inside. The windows were next, they were locked. It couldn’t have been a prank. Yet the board was not only back but exactly in the same spot on the floor, at the same angle I had placed it a month before.

Years later reading, I supposed quantum physics would allow someone to move the board and then return it.

Yes ma’m.  Happens all the time.  But usually at levels that we don’t notice.  Keep us posted on any such strangnesses that come your way…

Write when you break-even


13 thoughts on “Coping: Social Waves and Stock Waves”

  1. I hope you got a really really good deal on your cruise ! The Caribbean and its beaches are suffering an eco-disaster right now-can you spell “sargassum” ?lt is ruining tourism along the coast of Mexico and other areas. Take along some clothespins for your noses.

  2. Regardless of what the AP stylebook or other may say, the word “illegal” and it’s variants is either and adjective or an adverb.

    It’s NEVER a noun!

    Accurate terms for those who have not been processed, inspected, and lawfully admitted into the country is “foreign infiltrator”, “alien infiltrator”, or reasonable variants. The word “illegal” may be used as an additional modifier if desired.

  3. Correction to the previous comment: The verb “is” in the third paragraph should be the plural “are”. The comment posted prematurely due to an overly sensitive touchpad.

  4. My all-time WoWo happened in the ’80s. I got out of the car and was unloading 2 bags of groceries – one in each arm, struggling to put the trunk lid down. Somehow (quantum physics perhaps) I managed to slam the trunk lid down on the back of my right hand. How do you do that with a bag of groceries in each arm? When I got in the house, my wife didn’t believe me. She went back to the garage to close the trunk lid, which (of course) was already closed. Then she was really baffled — as am I to this day.

  5. Mr. Ure, my admiration for your intellect and understanding of economics and history continues to grow. Thanks for sharing your insights with us.
    I probably won’t be writing again, as I have little hope left of ever breaking even…at least as long as so many “citizens” continue to “vote for a living”.
    I don’t know who originally said it, but I remember reading it and believe this statement:
    “Democracy is a wonderful thing and leads to responsible self-government through the representative election process…as long as citizens are responsible and intelligent in the exercise of their voting rights…but when the citizens do not act responsibly and entrust their future to untrustworthy individuals through unwise, foolish, and careless attitudes toward the election process, then democracy works as it was intended, the citizens will get what they deserve…and will suffer the consequences until ready to make the sacrifices necessary to change it.”
    Keep up the worthy shared insight…U(re) may be our only hope, OB1!

  6. I didn’t think that Regan, Bush 1 and Bush 2 were liberals. Because they are responsible for the the majority of the the increase of national debt. They just spent the money incarcerating people and blowing things and people up, not helping the majority of Americans. I believe this is just a leak of the current propaganda into your column. Were the word liberal is the new dirty word. The first thing in propaganda is the name of a group then the the deformation of that name. Now most would then say I am a liberal thus negating what I am trying to convey. I am just one of the many working people (been) for over 30 years, that has no pension, no job guarantee or job security, make more and take home less than 10 years ago and has a distinct feeling that I will never be able to retire. I do not believe that we have become Marxist, I believe our current form of governance is corporate fascism. This is evident by the amount of our income that goes to corporations and that in some instances our government forces us to pay the corporations. Examples being car insurance and health insurance.

    Best Regards

    • Nicely stated! I’m saving it on the off chance I can gift your explanation to someone someday. I’d just add that Obama isn’t a liberal, either.

  7. I’m a future person. And I’m pretty sure that its aging me quickly. Always planning, looking for the patterns, worrying about eating in 10 years. My husband is a here and now. He’s more than happy for me to do the planning and he’s looking fairly youthful.

  8. Coping: Social Waves and Stock Waves… Brilliant Piece. Eloquently put, and keeping it real. Until election day is upon us, I take great joy in viewing the politcal folly leading up to that day of casting my vote in November as a member of that silent majority, and I am still thankful that this is a country where in the defense of the four freedoms, we are still blessed with the greatest Nation on Earth. Political Correctness is cured by tuning out and turning off the T.V.. This is something that Millenials are doing in greater numbers as the years progress and the rancor and smell of PCD ripens.

  9. I think there are 3 kinds of people, too: 1) Elites, above the law, can buy their way out of anything. 2) Citizens, beholden to every single letter in the law, and the arrests, fines, tickets, penalties, jail times, community service, probation, finger printing, credit ruining, etc. 3) Illegals, now in bed with the elites…above the law, under the law, get around the law, and the law does not apply to them, they do not even need money to get out of jail free. They get hired with no credentials, no back ground checks, no credit checks, no finger printing, no drug testing…it is open sesame to America on the Taxpayer Paid Express. And when they murder, assault, maim, rape, plunder the citizens…our Pres has ‘no comment’; he just tells his administration, “Keep Em Coming.” And he’s laying the tracks on invasion all over the USA. I have read a lot over the years, of prophecy, people’s fears, read their dreams, their books,etc., and it used to be everyone was afraid of China or Russia invading us on the West Coast of America….well, we have been invaded from the South, with nary a stop from our government…not one line of defense has been put up in our sovereign defense. And our laws have been cast aside and are not enforced when it comes to the illegals. So, the invasion that has hurt us the most has happened…and the one everyone thought ‘might’ happen has not… I would like to hear ONE politician or elected leader EXPLAIN to America, WHY we have to allow our country to be overrun with illegals. Not ONE has ever answered that question…and doing the work we won’t do is not an answer, it is a LIE.

  10. ” I’d sure be interested in any studies you might stumble across linking health, income, and longevity to a person’s temporal orientation.”

    Don’t need one George. People tend to go where their eyes are pointing. Learned that as a kid while learning to drive.

  11. “I’d sure be interested in any studies you might stumble across linking health, income, and longevity to a person’s temporal orientation.”

    Don’t really need one George. People tend to go where their eyes are pointed. Learned that as a kid while learning o drive.

    • Clearly, still haven’t learned to spell yet though. We need an editor for our comments George.

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