Cool: Like Weather and Markets

Once again, the Great American Hype Machine is set to roll with a “Horrible Winter Snow Blast” like it is supposed to mean something.  I haven’t bothered to look for it, but I’m sure someone will give it a name.  All part of the branding process.

Yes kiddies, it will snow tomorrow – up to a couple of feet in the Northeast, but this is how the Universe teaches the gullible about subjects like climate change.

All that remains is for the email machinery to start cranking out their fear porn to raise money for…well, whatever.

Still,  a look at the calendar tells us all we need to know:  There are still eight days of Winter left.

The Monday Tee Shot (Economic Golf)

The main thing to do this morning is to recover from the God-awful time change this weekend.  There is so little going on this morning that no one could possibly blame you for returning to the rack for at least part of your stolen day. ‘Cept the boss, maybe.

Tomorrow?  Different deal.  Warm-up day.

We will get the Producer Price Index for final demand, but the real action this week is Suyper4 Wednesday.

First thing will be the bank reserve settlement (if you like accounting) followed by the Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales, and then in the afternoon the Fed Rate decision.

Sure looks about 90% likely the Fed will raise rates – which means if we are really replaying the 1929 period, this will be about like the rate hike of
April 23, 1928.  A flat to down week is possible, but by the week after next, our long position should be in full bloom.

In a perfectly conspiratorial world, the last rate hike as the bubble grows would come 87 days later than Wednesday – which we could round off to expecting Hike #3 in June..

Thursday’s Housing Starts should be interesting and an upside surprise would be nice.  If it comes, that would be smart people, seeing that the bottom of interest rates is here – and wanting to lock in a new home at never-before-seen rates.

If you’re a Millennial, you may not realize this, but when us old Grays were your age, a 7 3/4th’s percent home loan was considered a steal by 1975, or so. 

Not saying it’s a bad idea to buy a home – seldom is except when you’re right on the cusp of a Greater Depression an d even then, no one sends out a memo.  Becomes a judgment call.

After all the excitement (or data excretions if you think of it that way) of the Super Wednesday, Friday will fall back to nappy-time and we can all get back to working our butts off to make ends meet’ never getting ahead, mostly.

What Conway Didn’t Say

Oh boy.  Democrats may be about to get their comeuppance.

Kelly Conway was on the talking-heads circuit this weekend saying the government has many ways to surveil people.

What most Americans want to believe is the government is just government. 

Well no, Not true:  Multiple government agencies are working to create a super-database which would allow an interested federal (whatever) to pull up everything about you on a single screen.

Oh, sure, NCIC (national crime information center) would have all your traffic stops, speeding tickets, warrants for unpaid tickets and the like.  But then beyond that picture having your tax filing tied into that along with your Facebook posts and a network diagram of who are your friends are.  Toss in your Social Security, bank account balances, and oh yeah we’re talking about Admiral Poindexter’s Total Information Awareness Project which just sort of faded into the woodwork.

Thing is:  It’s mostly there.  Social mapping, especially.

What would you expect from an East German Stasi lake surveillance system designed by a fellow who was convicted of five counts of lying to Congress, only to have it overturned on appeal?

Do you really think people in the Intel community are going to tell the truth when asked “Are you illegally watching Americans?”  Hell no.  They will lie with impunity.

That’s what they have all the fancy lawyers for – to tell them which weasel words to use.  I love Clapper’s use of “to my knowledge” for example when asked a specific question.

To be sure, if Congress really does its job, they would use the hearings starting today to bust open the progress along the lines to Total Information Awareness which schematically looks something like this:


If you just glance at it,  all looks straight-forward enough. 

But read the zhit under “transactional data” – your vet bills for f’s sake?

But few know, for example, that there are “cloaked modes” where a few “special people” have access to everything in the system?  I know this is true of NCIC and logically assume the cloaking mode is available across platforms.  Which is where this gets to be dangerous stuff.  Who is watching the watchers?

Cloaking is used to control access to juvi records and to keep those in law enforcement who are suspect from learning of surveillance, but this cloaking stuff is a HUGE policy issue.

The biggest threat to American Freedom is SQL databases, in many ways.

Lying Two-Face Democrats

You know, this whole episode started with the Obama/Clinton attempts to subvert the new President with innuendo about “meetings with Russians.”

But now?  Here comes a report out of the UK (and you’ll love this):  “Hillary Clinton’s team met with Russian ambassador, says Kremlin spokesman, as he warns against ‘hysteria’ .”

I can hear ‘em  squealing now “But that’s different…”  Yeah, uh-huh…

Hysteria?  Here in clear-thinking ‘Merica?  Land of the border-free? LOL it is such fine Kabuki – and no flight to Tokyo required.  Just turn on See-Spawn (sic) today.

Collapse of Europe Pending (Slow Motion)

We’ve been massively entertained by this for some time:  How the U.K. is dragging its feet on BREXIT – and how Marine Le Pen could toss the Euro and resuscitate the Franc if she wins May 7 in France.

Now we read how on “Scottish independence: Nicola Sturgeon to seek second referendum.”

What we’re really watching in the slow-motion collapse of Globalism.

Bigger Picture, Wider Thoughts

In his book End of the Line: The Rise and Coming Fall of the Global Corporation, Barry Lynn summed it up perfectly:

“The era of national industrialisms honed honed to win power and glory is over.”

It’s a complicated plot line, but it involves the problem of consumer super-saturation, the limits to valuations (which already verge on absurd) and then we have all those disruptive technologies coming along.  Toss in a helping, or two, of resurgent nationalism?  Why not?

Yes sir, a fine fish-fry is ahead.  Especially in light of our recent Peoplenomics discussion noting the global Purchasing Power High was actually Y2K on an inflation-adjusted basis when a boarder than U.S. market perspective is applied.

Now, this is not  as sexy and fast-moving like either the hands of clocks this weekend of Winter Storm Stella, but it IS the kind of change that matters and will shape the world we live in.

The U.S. – and to a large extent China and Russia – have a problem in that we have gotten into a terrible habit of using Cold Wars to keep the economic scales balanced because there is no alternative to growth.

Since we’re addicted to growth, we need to find new and creative ways to “make up jobs” – and just so you know, that’s one of the major obstacles to getting rid of Obamacare:  Even the dullest-witted republicans know that we can’t really shrink government nor its child-industries:  They are all that stand between us an Oblivion.

Yet here it comes:  Rates are beginning to tick up.  Box prices will fall as rates rise – from Future Values declining when reduced to Present Values.  The great stampede into stocks will continue.

Until, that is, it can continue no more.  Then it will be Collapse.

Unfortunately, we see the ugly outline of the republicans being left holding the bag on this one.  The Obama shadow government and the Hillary loyalists still embedded will do all they can to foment opposition to Donald Trump.

You can see how it’s working, too.  With people like John McCain who is bashing Trump saying he should retract his wiretapping claims.  Glad McCain didn’t become President.

Yet this is how we all become victims of process.  Too small to stop the train wreck, all we can do is watch the “majority party” disintegrate while the democrats keep selling free lunches on the one hand and offer aid and comfort to Trump opposition on the other.

We see the NE liberal press throwing stones, as well.  “Trump Lets Key Offices Gather Dust Amid ‘Slowest Transition in Decades’” moans the NY Times.

If we could – as a country – work on our real core problem – it would be refreshing.

That problem is to design an economy that will weather both rapid growth as well as moderate declines – without relying on intimidation of the people (as in brow-beating to pay more taxes like this climate scam which aims for a global climate tax and thence world government) or restarting the Arms Race which increases the potential for global genocide.

Trump wiretaps seem  destined to be “talked around” but not addressed head-on.

That’s because the term “head-on” also applies to vehicular accidents.  And that’s what the f/u’ed GOP looks like from out here in fly-over country.

Say “Hi!” to Global Warming for us and drop by tomorrow.

(Feels like a Bailey’s & nutmeg French Toast morning to me.)

18 thoughts on “Cool: Like Weather and Markets”

  1. G. As I skimmed, and I do mean skimmed, your rants against everything “Non-Urenessly Acceptable”, this morning– it appears, to me, that the “piney woods Woolly Booger” has been depositing his spermotaza into your water supply, and has begun seriously affecting, in a very negative way-/your ability towards exiting his domain!
    Not only will your condition continue to worsen as you abide in his domain, but you can expect an even greater adherence to the type of gutteral muse that has been reported by those that have had the misfortune to encounter the “beast”!
    A few days ago, I deemed a slight hint of rational thought patterns, when you posted mutterings of “relocation”.
    Get out G–the times of change are not to be spent in the refuge of such creatures!

    • George – Over the years, I have seen several sites on which the owner of the site states upfront that, as being the person who pays the costs of the site, he/she will determine who/which “replies” will be considered to be of sufficient value to be included on that site.

      You are being too generous in giving away space.

    • I think it may be more the case of George having to maintain very conscious awareness of all that is swirling around in the economic and political spheres (they are very united) causing his rants. Investors, in general, have to swim in this soup to make their money.

      I don’t think we have ‘Woolly booger sperm’ in the water. We don’t have flouride or lead or much else in it – just ‘high quality H2O’…

      The tide of change is rising, and it has been building for a long time to get us to this point. However, there was never any need for it to even be this way, and many of us are frustrated that our government and businesses are so very short-sighted and rife with greed. But it has always been this way, so perhaps it is just part of the human condition when living in large societies.

      Watching the tide rise and the wave build, well, it does tend to make me shrug my shoulders and think, “Why are people so greedy, ignorant and dishonest?”

      Then I just put my head back down, work on productive things, read things that pique my interest and be honest. That is revolutionary enough these days…

    • Dear AI (Artificial Intelligence), your use of 5th grade,common core graduate, verbal attacks, just show the mental inability to think further than gutter remarks.
      Dear George, always enjoy your Web site, sometimes informative, sometimes entertaining, but usually gives me something to mull over. Thank you very much.

    • Right on, AI. This latest report indicates that 1 in 4 Americans are on psychiatric drugs. Then consider the use/abuse of prescription painkillers, street drugs and alcohol usage.

      Those Americans not on some chemical to cope with the madness of American culture today should be suspect.

      If I made a list of what is really going on in America today, and enthusiastically announced I was expatriating to a country with these characteristics, you would avoid being in my presence to be away from my madness.

  2. Good Morning George,

    I was just wondering if/when you were going to add a crypto-currency widget to the line of PMs & USD that you keep at the top of your pages. BTC (crypto-gold) or maybe Ether (crypto-silver)?


  3. Your reference to “winter storm Stella” is interesting. It’s my recollection that before hurricanes Katrina and Sandy the only “named storms” were hurricanes. Then the ‘rules’ were changed changed so that insurance deductibles could be raised if The Weather Channel named even winter storms so that after some period of continuous storm activity your deductibles could be increased. Why the linkage to The Weather Channel? Insurance companies want your premium money NOW, but when it comes to paying off…
    All they need to do now is reduce the elapsed time of a storm so they could name anything and swindle us out of even more.

  4. George, how quick we forget reality. That is, 7 years of ‘Conservative’ economics (deregulation, tax cuts and massive deficits) crashed the economy in 2007-8. Then, 8 years of ‘Liberal’ economics tripled the stock market, tamed unemployment, and brought back the tax revenues. Wouldn’t you rather not get maybe an extra $2000 in tax cuts to protect $2 million of net worth? Mike.

    • Here here Mike. A couple other I’d add would be 9/11 and I hang this on the republicans neck because of that whole nasty PDB stuff that Rice, Bush and Cheney couldn’t be bothered with. The republican Iraq War built on “Fake News”. And of course the Patriot Act and Total Information Awareness was due to republicans too.

      Another democrat will bail Trump and the republicans out again after they tilt the pinball machine yet again.

  5. Why George there is a method to their madness on the monster storm, for this morning they showed the grocery stores up in Buffalo doing a rousing business packed with people stocking up,but lol they should have waited for the noon news for now why we aren’t going to get but just a few inch’s of snow spread over three days..

  6. As for Global warming and snow trends.. I heard the predicted weather futures..
    Expect a warming trend around mid april…

  7. George, although you and I think of vet bills in terms of cats, the gov might find it pretty handy at some point in the future to know where all the livestock is; they tried it on with the national animal ID crap awhile back, I think; maybe vet bills are a kind of run-around to the same info.

    • That’s a very interesting – and paranoid, so possibly correct – way to look at this, lol

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