Ure’s comments on ELECTION AND ECONOMY for George Noory CoastToCoastAM listeners tonight.
View: The election changed nothing.
1 Where we are in History
America has undergone sequential social – technological eras. We’re at the end of a change era now./ Election doesn’t change that.
- On founding we were a “human powered” expansionist country.
- At the Civil War, we decided “humans can’t be owned” but machines could b Machines have a favored tax rate over human labor that has never been fixed…
- At 1900, the internal combustion engine revolution and radio began
- Motorized ships
- At 1930 Depression due to excess capacity and no pricing power
- Here came Regulation and Bureaucracy.
- WW II was a long wave economic trough war.
- 1960- the Information Age
- Vietnam War was a long wave peak war.
- 1970 Computers
- 1980 Networked Computers
- 1990 Internet
- 2000 Excess capacity and no pricing power – recession/
- Artificial housing bubble
- Housing Crash
- Artificial stimulus and tax cuts
- Soon: Excess capacity/no pricing power
- Beyond that, an economic trough war is expected 2024’ish.
2 What Happens Now?
Early signs of recession ahead:
- Elections leave potential for logjam/stalemates in DC
- Trump press conference unlikely to chill out anyone.
- Housing seems “toppy” in all but a few hot markets
- Fed may raise rates tomorrow (or December)
- New caps on local tax deductibility are in place and
- Limit on mortgage interest write offs capped at $750K on new loans.
- Stocks are likely to drop to 2,520 on the S&P but this is not financial advice…just my view.
- News has little impact on markets; rates and global factors and sales outlooks weigh.
3. A Word on Divisiveness:
We have been through uncontrolled media expansion with blogs, publishers, social media on top of traditional papers and television.
There are not enough “audience concentrations” as a result to make all media profitable.
As a result: Just like Howard Stern was a pioneer of “shock jock” radio, so too we see the former mainstream centrist media adopting the “shock talk” to keep falling audiences and legacy non-streaming systems. Example CNN and Fox battle over airport televisions.
In order to “build buzz” people on blogs and social say radicalizing things just past “belief” in order to involve and motivate audiences. “I’m more famous than you” because “I’m better than you” because you’re a (label).
Newspapers, especially local ones, are putting in Pay Walls – in time, we see media break-ups coming that will be paid media behind paywalls that will be local and competing national “shock shows”
Divisiveness is economics driven!
4 Best Personal Strategies Long-term
- Get multiple skills:
- An “intellectual” skill
- A “hands-on” skill
- And a “survival skill.”
- Consider your Personal Survival Plans
- If crap hits the fan, stay put or move?
- How to get there?
- Water and food?
- Medical limitations
- Financial issues
- Prep while you can
- Get a plan – buy one, save one for later.
- Read at least one book on the Great Depression and understand how it worked.
- Murray Rothbard’s book is excellent:
5 Understanding Current Events
We are in many ways “Rhyming 1929”
- LGTQ movement can be seen as echo of the Roaring Twenties “flappers”
- Chicago crime sprees are gang-related and echo the Capone era
- National marijuana laws will change at the coming “economic bottom” of our pending Depression just as Prohibition ended in 1933 at the bottom of the Great Depression
- Consumer super-saturation prevails. Why do we have storage units?
- A new technology class -internet/social – has begun to reach its limits
6 Limits to Tech and What’s Ahead
We are running out of things to monetize: Weather, sex, all symptoms of the general case – limited technical innovation and too many people.
Changes in our relations to Computers are underway and will define next wave
- Massive surveillance by police including facial IF systems and license plate scanners
- Voice surveillance is here (Amazon’s Alexa)
- Still to come – voice-interactive appliances:
- Some rudimentary TV controls are here
- Look for voice-menued microwave ovens and such
- Smart home technology will go large
- Risk to privacy for some users is acceptable – especially seniors
- Elaine and I have seven Echos and Dots in two buildings
- We control 10 devices including lights, printers, racks of equipment and ham radio gear.
- We consider a voice-responsive home a useful safety item.
- Smart home offers intercom, all-location announcements, streaming news, music in all locations plus device control.
- Privacy could be a concern for people plotting revolutions but since we’re well past-retirement age, who cares?
More in our usual morning report…