CoastToCoastAM Reader Notes

Ure’s comments on  ELECTION AND ECONOMY for George Noory CoastToCoastAM listeners tonight.

View:  The election changed nothing.

1  Where we are in History

America has undergone sequential social – technological eras.  We’re at the end of a change era now./  Election doesn’t change that.

  • On founding we were a “human powered” expansionist country.
  • At the Civil War, we decided “humans can’t be owned” but machines could b Machines have a favored tax rate over human labor that has never been fixed…
  • At 1900, the internal combustion engine revolution and radio began
    • Airplanes
    • Autos
    • Motorized ships
  • At 1930 Depression due to excess capacity and no pricing power
  • Here came Regulation and Bureaucracy.
  • WW II was a long wave economic trough war.
  • 1960- the Information Age
  • Vietnam War was a long wave peak war.
  • 1970 Computers
  • 1980 Networked Computers
  • 1990 Internet
  • 2000 Excess capacity and no pricing power – recession/
  • Artificial housing bubble
  • Housing Crash
  • Artificial stimulus and tax cuts
  • Soon:  Excess capacity/no pricing power
  • Beyond that, an economic trough war is expected 2024’ish.

2  What Happens Now?

Early signs of recession ahead:

  • Elections leave potential for logjam/stalemates in DC
  • Trump press conference unlikely to chill out anyone.
  • Housing seems “toppy” in all but a few hot markets
  • Fed may raise rates tomorrow (or December)
  • New caps on local tax deductibility are in place and
  • Limit on mortgage interest write offs capped at $750K on new loans.
  • Stocks are likely to drop to 2,520 on the S&P but this is not financial advice…just  my view.
  • News has little impact on markets; rates and global factors and sales outlooks weigh.

3. A Word on Divisiveness:

We have been through uncontrolled media expansion with blogs, publishers, social media on top of traditional papers and television.

There are not enough “audience concentrations” as a result to make all media profitable.

As a result:  Just like Howard Stern was a pioneer of “shock jock” radio, so too we see the former mainstream centrist media adopting the “shock talk” to keep falling audiences and legacy non-streaming systems.  Example CNN and Fox battle over airport televisions.

In order to “build buzz” people on blogs and social say radicalizing things just past “belief” in order to involve and motivate audiences.  “I’m more famous than you” because “I’m better than you” because you’re a (label).

Newspapers, especially local ones, are putting in Pay Walls – in time, we see media break-ups coming that will be paid media behind paywalls that will be local and competing national “shock shows”

Divisiveness is economics driven!

4 Best Personal Strategies Long-term

  • Get multiple skills:
    • An “intellectual” skill
    • A “hands-on” skill
    • And a “survival skill.”
  • Consider your Personal Survival Plans
    • If crap hits the fan, stay put or move?
    • How to get there?
    • Water and food?
    • Medical limitations
    • Financial issues
  • Prep while you can
    • Get a plan – buy one, save one for later.
  • Read at least one book on the Great Depression and understand how it worked.

5  Understanding Current Events

We are in many ways “Rhyming 1929”

  • LGTQ movement can be seen as echo of the Roaring Twenties “flappers”
  • Chicago crime sprees are gang-related and echo the Capone era
  • National marijuana laws will change at the coming “economic bottom” of our pending Depression just as Prohibition ended in 1933 at the bottom of the Great Depression
  • Consumer super-saturation prevails.  Why do we have storage units?
  • A new technology class -internet/social – has begun to reach its limits

6 Limits to Tech and What’s Ahead

We are running out of things to monetize:  Weather, sex, all symptoms of the general case – limited technical innovation and too many people.

Changes in our relations to Computers are underway and will define next wave

  • Massive surveillance by police including facial IF systems and license plate scanners
  • Voice surveillance is here (Amazon’s Alexa)
  • Still to come – voice-interactive appliances:
    • Some rudimentary TV controls are here
    • Look for voice-menued microwave ovens and such
    • Smart home technology will go large
  • Risk to privacy for some users is acceptable – especially seniors
    • Elaine and I have seven Echos and Dots in two buildings
    • We control 10 devices including lights, printers, racks of equipment and ham radio gear.
    • We consider a voice-responsive home a useful safety item.
    • Smart home offers intercom, all-location announcements, streaming news, music in all locations plus device control.
  • Privacy could be a concern for people plotting revolutions but since we’re well past-retirement age, who cares?

More in our usual morning report…

16 thoughts on “CoastToCoastAM Reader Notes”

  1. The big one…. Scary and very few are prepared..
    The reason the majority of adults today have never gone without.. We live in a land of plenty.. What surprises me is if you’ve gone with out you’ll make sure that never happens again..after some mishaps in my life I never had less than two jobs..
    Yet I was visiting with someone I know that’s on the show naked and afraid. We got on the subject of having a reserve on hand. They don’t have one..even though they starved for a month..I think the trek they’re on now is 40 days.
    But if you know someone that went through the depression and they have a reserve..because the banks closed the doors they buried money in jars and around the house.
    I think today’s crash will be different. Mostly because we are not on a gold standard and everything is just a number on a computer screen and paper.
    We no longer have an industrial base to pull us up.
    It will all be interesting..

  2. The election might not change the big picture but it sure is changing the Michigan picture. The Democrats have regained control and have made it clear they plan to undo most of what our Republican governor has accomplished. I really wish I could move.

    • Kimberley,

      If you really are so unhappy you “wish you can move”, what keeps you? Nothing is stopping you but a learned behavior/mental construct. Watch the link I posted on the 6th, “The Backwards Brain Bicycle”.

      It’s very difficult to unlearn, but that guy proves it possible.

      Thinking about politics, the video take-away for me is that we’ll more-or-less always live in the Republican/Democrat paradigm because we’re told to vote Republican/Democrat as children by parents and schools. We’ve learned their are only two choices.

      Look at the amazing actions of our host, G as he made a shift from sails to lawn tractors!

      No offense/standard disclaimers.

      • There are real reasons for not moving, yet. Finances, family, and my husband. I suppose I could divorce him, leave my kids, and live in a camper on the side of the freeway. I voted Republican, Libertarian, and Tax Payer party (Michigan’s Constitution party) in Tuesday’s election. I’m not from Michigan, I don’t like this place, beautiful as it may be, it doesn’t make up for the socialist, take care of me, attitude. You make huge ASSumptions about my ability to think for myself, and take care of myself.

        No offense/standard disclaimers.

    • If nothing else, the sharp distinctions in this election should illustrate to Black Americans and Latino Americans that economics trump social philosophy in terms of well being. It is a distinction that has the potential to change the landscape for a long time.

    • I always wonder why people feel that there is never any middle ground. To say that You want to move because liberals were elected…is shortsighted and limiting your holistic belief system potential. These people weren’t appointed…they were elected by people that want change.

      That said…I made the change to move for the opposite reason 20 years ago from the stodgy, conservative Midwest to The Bay Area. I left because I got tired of the conservative, chained to system “values” of conservatism. I was stuck in this rigid opinion cycle and that made it harder to change and think rationally. The Backward Brain Bicycle that Steve F. referred to is really interesting and resonates with me.

      I left St. Louis…a town that kept and still keeps losing population, sports teams, corporate headquarters, housing value, and hasn’t had a high rise built in its downtown since 1988. I was stuck in a capped income system too. As an advertising executive…at the time…I conducted a lot of consumer research projects and many of the PHD’s of research analytics I used to work with used to say to me that St. Louis is trending downward… I listened because I wanted a better future for my kids and they were right…St. Louis is no-man’s land basically…unless you live in the suburbs..and even then…it’s just plain mediocre.

      When I moved to the Bay Area, my Life changed. My salary instantly doubled…now it has grown 7x. My attitude changed…my views on the world changed. And the liberal vs. conservative argument. It’s a bunch of BS…for instance, is there really a difference from a business standpoint between liberal and conservatism?

      Conservatives want tax breaks for the rich individuals. Liberals want tax abatements and breaks for the job producers such as corporations. There is a reason why California is the 5th leading economy in the world…we have the jobs and those jobs became ubiquitous due to tax incentives to move and stay here. For example, Twitter got a $56 million dollar tax break to stay in San Francisco. Other deals followed. But, San Francisco made up for that by building more housing, retail, restaurants, infrastructure and attracting more people to make up for it. Growth in one sector causes growth in other sectors. It’s a GOP stalwart economic theory…Yet it all took place in Nancy Pelosi’s backyard. How did that happen? We are open to risks…That’s the liberal mindset.

      Liberal New York, Bay Area, Boston, Chicago, Seattle, L.A., Portland have robust economies…Throw in Liberal Austin, Minneapolis, Denver and those metros make up nearly half of our countries GDP. But are they really liberal or are they a mixed bag of corporatism and risk/reward politics? To grow, you have to have an open, liberal mindset…Even those cities that live in the middle of the road have become road kill. Total conservative mindset and you have a Trump country economic situation

      But…living in what you guys call a liberal state is just common sense to people that have had the experiences that we have on a daily basis. With growth, you have growth pains…like income inequality. Homelessness is definitely a downside to rising cost of living expenses…but Many also gravitate to wealth cores. They follow the money like I did…but just on a different level. Efforts to apply humanitarian fixes to the problem attract more homeless people. It’s a never ending conundrum.

      However, in a twist…homelessness is actually being solved by the corporations. Multi-billionaire, Marc Benioff, the Chairman and CEO of Salesforce just pushed through a proposition that taxed himself and other large corporations to rid the cities of homelessness. It passed. Again…that sounds like a conservative corporatism to me.

      Another point is myth about our obsession with the environment. I live in one of the most beautiful states/regions in the word…and I just want it to stay that way…so that opened me up to wanting to save my surroundings environment, the trails, the National Parks, the wildlife, the coasts. I am in real estate and those things have an affect on property value as well. Does that make me a tree hugger? No. But, I don’t want more oil rigs off of our coast either…no more than Trump does off of the coast of MarALago. Especially since I have experienced the miracle of the electric car…which dominate the roads here.

      Our water issues are complicated too. It’s not the environmentalist vs. the farmers as the media likes to say. It’s the salmon fishing industries vs. the farmers. Less water at the river mouths, mean less Salmon. As you know, fishing is a huge industry here as well.

      Another myth…Contrary to popular belief, our borders are not open…but we also realize the need for low cost workers to keep our status as the number one agricultural region in the country moving forward…It’s the agribusiness corporations that bring illegals in, because Federal immigration laws are so slow and Bureaucratic, that sometimes businesses have to take matters into their own hands. That sounds like a “less government is more” solution to me.

      It’s the diversity of dozens of nationalities, hundreds of heterogeneous cultural ideas and viewpoints, thousands of opportunities, Millions of acres of Mountains, dessert, coastline and Redwood Forests, billions of of dollars in new construction and growth and Trillions in statewide corporate valuations that is the result of an open, liberal mindset and a fiscally conservative plan that powers us. The media has made it a liberal Nancy Pelosi state…In reality…thanks to a fiscally conservative Governor…it’s the 5th largest economic machine on planet earth.

      • Mark, I don’t have a “holistic belief system potential”, smh. I never said their is no middle ground, remember, I’m the one that voted for 3 different parties… I’m sick and tired of people who think they can drive down my side of the road, who don’t think they should have to work a full day for a day’s pay, and a government that requires me to get permission to move my daughter’s play house from one side of the yard to the other. It has nothing to do with liberal or conservative. It has everything to do with my right to live my life as I see fit. This new governor has already promised to raise my taxes and screw up what is left of my health care (doubled under Obamacare, thank you). And please, don’t tell me about California, I know California inside and out. I grew up there. I’m glad you enjoy it. California is bankrupt, (Moonbeam is as far from fiscally conservative as a governor can get) and on the brink of insolvency, and all the beauty in the world isn’t going to save it.

  3. I agree on some points. Pretty bleak. But this is transition period. This a nation two philosophies fracturing along the liberty fault line. Before the Trump era, we had a cultural war with only one side engaged, exchanging liberty for security and certainty. Now the rest have awoken to our dire situation. We became lazy with our liberty and have build huge debt because this. We have lost soverignity as well as personal liberty. But there has been a hidden hand in all history we need chose which is just and honorable and elect to represent us accordingly. We are on the threshold a new American Renaissance that can revolutionize the world and help save from both the deep state and the dark state. When even Vatican is not what appears to be, then if have some sense something is not right. The golden age is yet to come. I think we finally are emerging from the dark ages which I think started after the end of the Civil War. In my opinion, I think it all change and America started to change for the worse. Something about. Far out unti put all the pieces together. Just few more logs throw on the fire, George. Enjoy the forum.

  4. “Stocks are likely to drop to 2,520 on the S&P but this is not financial advice…just my view.” 2,410 my view, close -(.

  5. the 200 million population hit sounds about right for what global cooling will do to us when food does not grow, and the economic disruption / weather problems prevents distribution of medicines , and what food there is. The cooling of the sun has had negative effects on several “civilizations” from Bronze Age times to the not so distant past.. In a few days , I will be 80. Leaked off because my Mad Max days are long past.. When a kid, saw the tail end of the Great Depression….A Hoover town being burned by the police,, and the passengers on the train cursing at the police. Getting ready to plant fruit trees in my neighbors yards, blue berry bushes, and teaching the kids how to find edible plants

  6. Kimberly…California is far from bankrupt and not on the brink of insolvency. That is a Fox News talking point…Time to re-think your news choices. We have a $17 billion dollar surplus and growing…The only issues we have is what to do with that money. Gov Brown wants to use it as a rainy day fund (Smart)…There are those that are a bit too liberal for our tastes that want to spend it…but Gov. Brown is holding to his guns on this one. Gov Moonbeam is now Gov. SunBeam!

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