Charts: How Bad Could It Get? 90-Minute Columns

by

Really, really bad, to answer the rhetorical question.

I won’t call it a “breakthrough” but we have been using our Ebbinghaus-Ure Model to good effect with the market decline gathering speed now.  Last week, I was warning you (go ahead and look at the chart) that a “convergence of averages” can sometimes spell Big Change.  And today, just 5-days on, here’s the train wreck behind the topping-convergence I was yammering about:

Well, as you can see, it’s not a pretty picture, is it?  The worst of it is that the “convergence” has been of sufficiency to almost demand more downside over the coming couple of weeks. That’s because the lagging averages need to “space out” from the pack a bit more.  And that’s actually a good mwetaphor for how humans “think” – at least are supposed to think.

Put on – if you will, now – this other pair of “economic glasses” I wear from time-to-time.  These glasses take in the whole of global economics with the understanding that on any particular day there is only so much money in the world.  Like a balloon squished in a clenched fist, it will pop out somewhere.  Asia was very weak overnight, for example.

But this pressure to decline is also now impacting the U.S. markets.  Which (in aggregate) have just dropped down below the 85-day moving average.

I have a number of friends who are (brilliant) financial engineers who insist that even though there is risk investing in anything, there are enough checks and balances in place to keep the financial tops all spinning.

Well, except there aren’t.

Because of a process called “re-hypothecation.”

“Rehypothecation is a practice whereby banks and brokers use, for their own purposes, assets that have been posted as collateral by their clients. Clients who permit rehypothecation of their collateral may be compensated either through a lower cost of borrowing or a rebate on fees.”

In practical terms, FDIC is therefore now a joke.  Because in the past, depositors were first in line when a bank got in over its head.  Now, however, deposits are treated more like a common asset and so, as a result, the wise investor is forced into a devilish decision:  How can you exit the “financial con” (and remember for all the hype, there’s not any transactional equivalent for groceries – yet.  Do you put some portion of your Assets in Banks, expecting that when Collapse Comes, and the wings fall off these high-flying pigs of markets, that a Cyprus-like bail-in will protect your first $100,000?

Yeah – good luck with that.

Yes, we still keep some funds in a bank – that’s the transactional nature of modern Life.  Can’t live with it (morally) but can’t live without it, too.  Suckish position to be in, honestly.

What you can do is move to a state with the strongest ratio of homestead protections.  Texas, for example, has provisions that allow 100 percent of equity to be protected.

A Lesson in Financial Acuity

We don’t talk much about the Great States in America, where you can plan for a long life and not stay up all night worried about long-term asset protection.  But a good starting point would be to read the article Homestead Exemptions by U.S. State and Territory.

As you read this, however, be aware of “the con.”  And it goes like this.  the “top tout” among financial planners is typically a state like California.  Where the present homesteading limits run $300-$600-thousand.

What most people don’t get (because they are “followers of the herd”) is that with a sudden huge inflation, even $600,000 ain’t much if the typical home (in the envisioned hyperinflating world) soars to $10-million bucks.  Sucks in such case.

On the other hand, as you go through that list, look for states with the word “Unlimited” in the caps column.  Where you will find Texas, Oklahoma, and other tax gems.  Then back-out states with a state income tax and pretty soon, choices become obvious.

I’ve been going to mention this to my pal, the Major, because he and the dr/mrs are thinking about ever-aftering in Colorado. And except for the cattle mutilations around Weston, that whole area adjacent to Trinidad, Colorado is gorgeous.  We have friends with a genuine castle up there, but we told you that and showed me standing inside the fireplace in the Great Room, years ago. (flashback passed).

Anyway, the homesteading exemption in Colorado is $350,000 whereas in Washington (which except for our offspring with the golden handcuffs on) haven’t left that Marxist enclave.  Where the homestead exemption is a paltry $125,000 or the prior tax year’s median home value, whichever is greater.  Lag times in hyperinflations can kill.

Ah, but enough of this pre-Depression discussion.  Let’s see how nVidia scores tomorrow and take it from there.

People still haven’t even started to realize the power of AI.  It’s going to be like mechanization and Henry Ford on steroids, get it?  In other words, anyone in Law School will likely be replaced by AI withing 10-years and maybe half that time.  You can already do really good legal work with nothing more than an AI account and who you want to go after. Plus, if you save every single text, email, and contact, AI can do dandy work, too.

All depends if you are living ahead of the future or behind it.  Sorry if you’re not in the ahead of it crowd.

Tuesday Tidbits

EU Bureaucratic pricks are still in expansionist monarchy mode:  Appalling listening to the bullshit from the EU meetings.  They have had three years to work on a Ukraine deal (not getting jack-shit done) and then dare to get pissy about us waning a better deal?  US sides with Russia, refusing to support Ukraine at UN is what Ukraine backers hawk.  But realistically (evenly headlined) it’s really UN Security Council adopts neutral US stance on war in Ukraine. I mean ignoring the old-gaurd at State that poured $5-6 Billion into tossing a legally elect4ed democratic government out to the short pianist could diktat.  Such horse crap.  But here you have it, Europe on the march to wider war: Ukraine Scores Diplomatic Win With Passage Of Resolutions At UN. Which is yet-another example of how mobs should never run things.

In case you forgot: A billion years back the John Birch Society got anti-UN exactly right.  One of the first public activities of the society was a “Get US Out!” (of membership in the UN) campaign, which claimed in 1959 that the “Real nature of [the] UN is to build a One World Government” – which has proven eerily prescience while the Marxists march on toward thieving America for their proletariat sham…

Oh, Look! Hamas is feeling bad. Hamas Official Expresses Reservations About Oct. 7 Attack on Israel – The New York Times. We figure this is to keep Israel hoping for more hostage releases which have been totally unequal.  Would Moshe have put up with this, as foreign affairs minister, during Entebbe?  Um…think, now, it ain’t that hard… (Maybe you don’t know any Mossad…)

Pope needs some business schooling, maybe? Oh yeah – the parts on delegating perhaps? Pope Francis remains in critical condition, but has resumed work. Surely he know “Take care of yourself so you can take care of others?”

Trump Hate Resurgence.  OK, so we get a “managed drooler” who should have been Article 25’d (except that would have put Kamala in charge, a different nightmare) which the lying liberal media gave a free pass to while the invasion of America was on.  NOW, though, hints at aging issues for Trump? Trump’s BRUISED hand spotted after he & Macron rekindle unlikely bromance with at least 3 handshake jousts – so who won?  Gimme a break, sheesh.

Texas invasion cleanup continues: Deportation Operations Launched In Colony Ridge ‘Targeting Criminals And Illegal Immigrants’. More work to be done, though: 7X Deported Suspected MS-13 Gang Member Arrested for Murder in East Texas Migrant Colony.

Which in turn leads to this (barf bag ready?) Natalie Winters on X: “The judge blocking Trump’s mass deportations has family members working for open borders NGOs. How is this legal?

Which explains, we think, why dems are sinking: Press Release: February 2025 – Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll

Around the Ranch: 90-minute Columns

Now that I’m 76 Ii was going to cut back on the amount of work I’ve been doing. But, strangely, still have plenty of energy and the real focus has turned into “better time management.”

So, I figure if I begin writing about 6:15 AM, the whole column (like this one) can flip out of the fingers in  90-minutes if I don’t get distracted on research tangents.  So, that’s where I’m going. Better time management and a second pomodoro timer.

That way, I will still be able to pick up the (7:30 AM Central) press releases from the financial outfits (like GDP on Thursday of this week) run a few calculations (it impacts velocity of money at M2, for example) and still have time to make an intelligent remark, or two.

So, we will try that for a while, But the deep brain work will move more and more to the Peoplenomics reports where tomorrow we explore “Europe’s Last Stant” – which won’t be fun, but unless they can put their regional egos in check, history is quite clear on where the present expansionism leads.

Back in a few with the Housing numbers as a second post.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

18 thoughts on “Charts: How Bad Could It Get? 90-Minute Columns”

  1. I saw a couple of vids , it appears like Trump was physically tormenting the liddle guy,,, who has been accused of other sexualality.
    Trump did not greet him at the door, like you do for honored guest, but it was more like Macron was summoned

    But on a higher note, someone has to climb them radio towers and shout out for all to see, the view from up high, or just leave a light on
    @1800ft
    https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1894173527613247639

    Reply

  3. If people have been arrested and deported 4 times maybe something more drastic needs to be done. My granddaughter’s father was an illegal. He got caught with a traffic ticket and spent about a year in a jail in Oklahoma that only held illegals waiting trial dates. He is waiting until he can come in legally (10 years after being deported with a legal relative as a sponsor). He doesn’t want to return to jail.

    George, it always amazes me how much energy you have and how much work you get done. I want to expand my back deck and am thinking about concrete. Why do you always choose wood?

    Reply

    • Because I love wood. It has a warm look to it. You can sit on a wood chair outside and it’s healthy. Sit on concrete and it’s cold and you get rhoids. Wood has grain – I have stain. I loved teak on my sailboat, the many layers of spar vanish in my office which STILL looks sharp after 20-years.
      Wood is easy to repair, easy to change to a new liocation, repupose? All this an more.

      Now, concrete has some uses. My ham radio tower sits on a 4 ft square 7 ft deep block I poured with some buddies. It will take a D9 with a rock ripper to move it.

      But for everything else, my skil saws, impact driversa and Penfin finish looks totally kick-ass.

      Hot button dear, can you tell?

      Reply

      • Wood also is Softer on the knees and hips which at our age is a blessing. Wood can be absolutely beautiful with a warmth and depth unattainable with cold, hard, in-personable, damp concrete.

        Yea Wood! It can also smell wonderful. Be sure to seal it with a waterproof sealer. Inside I love multiple coats Teak Oil.

        Reply

      • Power company put in new pole yesterday, there was slow drilling at the end. Looking at it, there was 12″ of piled rock dust from the hole. The must have set it in stone.

        Reply

    • Trump has only been in office for about a month +/- but there’s millions of illegals. Even with classifications of good and bad illegals, how many so-called illegals have been booted to date?

      While we wait of our DOGE dividend I’m reminded of what the money could be spent on:

      “Officials at the Maryland Department of Transportation have announced plans to replace the bridge by the fourth quarter of 2028 at an estimated cost of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion. The original bridge cost $141 million to build, about $743 million in 2024 dollars.”

      Bridges were a big deal a few years back. America could have 150 new/refurbished bridges as opposed to the DOGE dividend.

      “The 2024 National Bridge Inventory database from the U.S. Department of Transportation found that 42,067 bridges are in poor condition”

      Reply

      • biden got infrastructure done, not just endless empty promises of infrastructure week. the bill includes funding for aviation, highways, bridges, roads, waterways, ports, public water supplies, rail and broadband.

        WASHINGTON, Jan 14 (Reuters) – President Joe Biden will trumpet his administration’s plans to spend $27 billion fixing thousands of U.S. bridges on Friday, the latest roll-out associated with the $1 trillion infrastructure bill.
        https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-lift-spending-bridges-part-infrastructure-drive-2022-01-14/

        Reply

        • Biden could barely tie his shoes…whatchu talking bout. Anything than happened was due to Deep State, intertia and handlers. My god, still think he was the best ever?

      • (“While we wait of our DOGE dividend I’m reminded of what the money could be spent on:”)

        don’t hold your breath lol lol..what have they uncovered so far..something between a third to two thirds of our deficit was do to mismanaged funds and open corruption!.
        the last summer he I read was a few trillion of money that was laundered and given away.. millions and billions handed out to friends and family of some pretty powerful people…
        you know this is making people nervous..just watch news coverage of people in Congress that are sitting at their desks.. some of those people probably haven’t ever even seen that chair before..and during time when they normally would be on some elaborately funded lobbyist vacation to some remote region of the most luxurious resorts..that result and activity hasn’t happened in probably a hundred years or more .. remember all the rip roar of the mountain of evidence of illegal activities that bordered on open treasonous business activities… congress played the drag the dead horse issue around the campaign platform..but when it came time to take off for months..it was all tabled and they all went home. congressional aids posting videos of the floor of congress being used as a gay pot setting..
        so what do you think these powerful political people people do having their dirty laundry deeds exposed to the public..great movements even now trying to cover these activities over.. after the satanic rituals and pedo human trafficking groups proved..as ugly as that was..they wielded enough power to cover it over..now we read of manic shredding and disposing of evidence of their criminal activities..

        https://www.bizpacreview.com/2025/02/25/whistleblower-drops-bombshell-claim-that-fbi-has-been-frantically-destroying-evidence-of-past-sins-1524976/

        what that means is a little more effort has to be put out to uncover their activities..it is a government agency and government never has one direct path everything is done in multiples that way if its uncovered they can say well so and so .. in triplicate divergence.. the same reason why the lobbyists write up thousand page laws to vote on..A guy that hates to work anyway will not read it line by line..
        another reason why an incoming legislator comes in from a moderately successful job and leaves office a multi millionaire..
        dogs and cats don’t shit in their own bed..the DC bubble..
        and if they hadn’t of been so ruthless attacking trump..he probably wouldn’t have opened their dirty laundry totally..
        https://youtu.be/fwgJgTL5JmE?si=JCQdUKf1Maxal6yC
        don heley dirty laundry..
        https://youtu.be/k5kHDL_3Us4?si=O-CFaEH3sp8B3tIp

        Reply

  5. Hey, URE
    I agree with the diminished time allotment.
    HOWEVER, as one who is 7 years your elder, don’t slow down too much. My observations tell me that those who set down don’t stay around too long. My grandfather made it to 99.5 YO and was active until just the last few years.

    KUTGW

    Reply

  6. You want to see real TDS. Every time Trump breathes out, he breathes out about 2.4 × 10 to the 22 power of molecules of air. In his first forty five years alone he would have breathed out 2.1 × 10 to the 31 power. That means that every time a lefty breathes in, they are taken in thousand of air molecules that were at one time in the Donald’s lungs. Bwahahahaha!

    Reply

  7. Lol lol I went in yesterday..trying to get my home taxes frozen.. the lady at the courthouse was telling me she has had a couple thousand trying to do this..the problem is.. A livable income is still at 350.00 per person per month.. she did tell me that they are trying to get that number increased especially since house taxes are what almost a quarter of what we get..
    its going to get ugly this year..people are cutting back big time..stopped to get an ice cream cone ..the place closed not enough traffic to keep the doors open..then I stopped to get a sandwich.. the same thing..these two places were pretty justly places..

    Reply

  8. Way back in the seventies, we behind the scenes guys traded viddy-o clips of funny stuff ‘n out-takes. Especially from News Guys, as they were the most official, serious, and pompous ones around. In the very early eighties the White House Correspomdent’s Association started to produce a reel for their annual dinner. Well, eventualy they killed it off by way of Taking Themselves Too Seriously — something they’re quite good at. Also by then the thing got too widely tradded “out,” and too many pompos blowhards didn’t tke being poked at.

    We galley-slaves, far below decks, always traded these around as Good Fun. Eventually, WHCA got so bogged down in Importance, that ALL the fun went out of the thing — and I don’t know if they even still make it anymore.

    But: here’s an early one, recently re-mastered and posted to YooToob. If you’re under fifty years old, a lot of it wlll make no sense. But if you remember those days, there’s a smile or two in this 22 munutes. I remember the day I got my copy on 3/4 inch tape for my guys to eagerly see… The Source met me in a parking lot like it was a drug deal…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FQrLdaG4qg

    73
    KW1B
    Viddy-o Engineer (then)

    Reply

Leave a Comment