We are looking at a modestly higher opening in the early Futures prices after the holiday. But it’s not too even and God only knows what’s really ahead.
First on prices:
- Stock Futures point higher (1/3 pct) but we don’t trust ’em. Too early.
- Inflation fears are back – in a big way. Gold is well over $2900 and Silver is north of $33 while at least one analyst is talking up $3,200 gold by year-end.
- However, Bitcoin is $95,637 early, so the cryptocon has missed the memo – again.
- Talk of peace talks in Riyadh could be hard on “defense” stocks but the AI bubble is still trying for a come-back.
Overnight, Global markets were flattened out after the bubbly of the Yankee Holiday passed. And, with options expiring this week, we have to look at the AGR (annual growth rate) implied by our Aggregate Index work (domestic_).
This Tuesday or Options Week, our Aggregate was pricing 52,867.68 with the hash browns. Same day, last options cycle (with would make it Jan. 14th) the Aggregate was nibbling 50,160.11. Yes, a gain of 5.3978 percent – in a single month!.
Follow the logic here: That works out (compounding for 12-straight months) to an annual rate of 87.923 percent! We inspect – so see if that’s not maybe a little high. But, no: 5.4 X 12-months is a 64.8 percent hike with the additional coming from the compounding effects.
In other words: Bat-shit crazy, nuts, spiked punch bowls, and not much drug testing on Wall Street.
However, it’s not the first time markets have gone crazy. Eventually, they get “over it” either because some party poopers come along, or the sheer weight of all those zeroes eventually implodes. So that’s my Options Week rant.
Except to mention the financial news flow this week is as near to a “nothing burger” as you’ll find. Sure, a few Talking Feds on the BLC (breakfast and lunch circuit). Tomorrow we’re on the edge of our chairs waiting for NY Fed’s Empire State numbers. Wednesday (if we don’t run out of No-Doz) there will be Housing Starts and eTailing mid-morning. There’s a glimmer of interesting in the Fed Minutes due out at 2 PM (Eastern) Wednesday. But they are likely to do little other than underscore how “lost in the woods” even the Banksters are.
Bt by Thursday. if your blood pressure hasn’t spiked, Philly Fed data and jobless claims are likely to finish you off. Come Friday, the only hope of going Lazarus will be found in Canadian consumer prices and some Purchasing Manager data.
I realize you may have nodded off by now. But stay awake: there’s actually something to think about.
The (Non-Medical) TMJ Dope
The lab coat I’m wearing may confuse you into thinking you’re going to get a quick lesson on how to perform TMJ surgery. But alas, we’re not huffing white board markers and doing quack medicine today – if you signed up for that class, go to the Registrar’s Office. See medical wannabes’ know TMJ as Temporomandibular joints (TMJs) that connect your lower jaw to your skull. (They are located in front of each ear, if you’re a medic at a car accident involving a high-speed a bridge abutment and you can’t find your landmarks with a “steering wheel implant” to the chest…. ) Different lecture.
Today’s topic is “Too Much Junk.” Which Americans have, and which is making economists dopey. Well, except maybe regional Fed boss Christopher Waller, who was speechifying overnight at an econ conference in New South Wales.
“While the FOMC has reduced the policy rate 100 basis points since then, yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury security have increased by a noticeable amount. In theory, longer-term rates should follow the expected path of the overnight policy rate set by the FOMC. But this relationship is based on the classic economic assumption of ceteris paribus, or “all other factors remaining constant.” The 10-year Treasury security trades in a deep, liquid global market, and its yield is affected by a variety of factors other than the path of the policy rate. This means that all other factors are not constant and that the 10-year Treasury yield may not follow the federal funds rate.
Perhaps the most famous example of the divergence of market interest rates and policy rates began in the mid 2000’s. The FOMC was tightening monetary policy from 2004 to 2006 and raised the policy rate 425 basis points. Over that time, Treasury yields barely moved. This was so surprising that Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan referred to it as a “conundrum.” At about the same time, future Chair Ben Bernanke identified what he called a “global savings glut” that was pushing up foreign demand for Treasury securities and putting downward pressure on yields…”
Waller went on several more paragraphs, but this “global savings glut” is something we have talked a little bit about here, and a fair deal about over on the Peoplenomics side of the house. We call the driver of all that ails us “Consumer Super-Saturation.”
In simplest terms: Nothing to buy. And no (resulting) Fix-It or Support-It secondary job creation.
Almost a “throw away” line in his speech, Waller said in passing ” If you want an example of a stable labor market with employment at its maximum level, it looks a lot like where we are right now.”
But that’s the problem. No one we know (both other people) are “Saving Up for Something Big.” Our (semi-adult_) children who don’t already have homes have resigned themselves to un-landed serf status going forward, unable (or unwilling) to sacrifice game updates and travel for a home (for example) because (being White and scared off from childing) they have rolled into the WEF con-job about “having nothing and liking it.”
Yes, to help Gov. Waller along in his path of discovery, when two people have (count ’em) five big screens, and the Biden hangover of ICE-hate is washing through auto sales, the establishment of America as the new Victimology Center of Universe is nearly complete. We have Too Much Junk and Too Few Goals.
We also have too few audits (to find holes in our behaviors) but DOGE is working on that. For now, we just sit out here in the woods. Occasionally sniffing the breeze, awaiting the scent of burning cities to come wafting through. Because destruction and regeneration (artificial demand) will be along sometime. We just can’t say when.
Oh, and the lab coat? It’s how (we think) economic forensics investigators ought to dress for the part. so, is this the part of Spiritual Evolution where the super-glue of attachment to things get completed and then we loose them so that more loosh can be harvested? Not sure, but the lab coats look good and the prices are rising while the junk in the storage units keeps piling up.
To no discernible end.
Pappy Russ’ Scroll Roll
(Papyrus if you’re not awake is explained here. Some pretending to be ‘news’ gleaned from the RSS scanners.)
If Trump ends the Ukraine War, should Joe Biden send refunds? I know – sounds partisan – but we said “squandering drooler” for how long, to no avail? Top Russian and US officials are discussing improving ties and ending the Ukraine war – without Kyiv. For the frosting (and frosty) on that: Vladimir Putin ‘ready to meet Zelensky’, Moscow says as Russia-US peace talks underway. From where we sit, this looks like a case of people getting so wedded to a bad idea (deathing) that they can’t come to their senses even when the audience is groaning. Which rational people have been doing a while, now.
What happens when someone threatens to take the Everclear away from the punch bowl? Well, something like EU leaders gather for an emergency meeting over fear Trump has isolated age-old allies. Old allies, is it? Or patsies?
Our “airline accidents come in 3’s” since updated to “second derivative of body count” seems still in play. With plane too many “near-misses” with disaster. Latest one? Delta Plane Flips Upside Down in Toronto Landing, 15 Hurt, Well, except at first it was 18, then the airport said 17, and now we’re down to 15. Why, wait a week and we may get to no injuries, as this rate. Has math gotten harder, or reality more difficult? Seems to be since the US MSM is still on the Trump-hate wagon. Charlie Kirk on X: “NBC News attempts to blame President Trump for Toronto plane crash due to FAA cuts. FACT CHECK: This happened under Canadian authority under Canadian air traffic control. Facts are so damn bothersome, ain’t they?
Australia swings right: Trump tariffs: Anthony Albanese’s first win could last five years – or five minutes.Because, as with the (in our view unjustified rate cuts ahead of US elections) there’s a whiff of rate politics in play down under. Aussie “Big Four” banks cut rates, mirroring central bank. Yeah, non-partisan bankers. Uh-huh, sure, you betcha.
Now we know why none of that USAID money bought armloads of Peoplenomics subscriptions, I guess: DOGE Uncovers USAID ‘Media Blacklist’ to Censor Reporters Going Against Narrative. Who, us? Meanwhile, how do you make $4.7 trillion of taxpayer money disappear? Department of Government Efficiency on X: “The Treasury Access Symbol (TAS) is an identification code linking a Treasury payment to a budget line item (standard financial process). In the Federal Government, the TAS field was optional for ~$4.7 Trillion in payments and was often left blank, making traceability almost”. Meanwhile, the left’s fear-mongering over Social Security ia trying to whip up DOGE fears – while 20-million Americans over100 have been getting payments? ViseGrips! Details! Jeff Carlson on X: “395 million social security numbers in the database versus 335 million citizens. More than 20 million over age of 100. More than 15 million over age of 110. Fraud, potentially at massive levels. But also huge implications for our elections. Easily fixed. But it wasn’t.”
Radical Lefty’s ought to fear payback: Tom Homan says he has asked Justice Dept. to investigate Ocasio-Cortez for advising illegal aliens on how to evade ICE.
With a big Winter Storm moving in, let’s make Stupid the new national norm, shall we? Democrats Refuse to Consider Repeal of Unworkable, Unaffordable Climate Laws.
With that big storm pressing south from the state of Canada…here’s how this afternoon is stacking up in the puckish and suckish department.
Around the Ranch: Crisis of Stability?
Quiet weekend around the ranch. Which is why we live in a “trailer in the woods” and spend a lot of time outdoors. Elaine counted seven deer jumping the north yard fence on Saturday. Whil the deer munched on that perenial clover I planted last fall for them, a few cats wandered out to watch. But no one ran off – the detente was pleasing. Pastoral.
But it’s not, always. Sunday, 13 big-ass vultures were wandering around looking for missed cat-treats.. Back Monday (having picked off some food left out for the feral puddy-tats, until one cat finally had enough of it. Walked down the fence rail out by the road and simply intimidated the vultures away (with their wings spread, sunning) until they had all flown off. Not a single blow…just walking with purpose.
For a few moments, though, in each of these cases, there was that “moment before change” that held our attention. And that’s how this week seems to line out, to us. Calm before the storm, kind of vibe to it.
Like being at the tippy-top of the roller coaster before the bottom falls out. A mix of anticipation, or fear? A touch, maybe. But more than anything, waiting for the ride status to change from a fleeting slowness – almost like time expanding for a minute – like the vultures and by the end of the month, we get the sense of seat belt testing.
Or, we will be like the deer…still grazing. Tough gambling conditions, for sure.
Write when you get rich or the cold passes (Hank in Hawaii is disqualified)
George@Ure.net
Beautiful Morning Mr Ure, it is -7 F and I am pumped, still, inspite of the deep freeze,,,is the deep state getting frozen? ,,,
so many , so much corruption at the Feral level,,,
can’t dodge the DOGE, shining a light on their Kleptomaniac habit.
is this your driveway sign?,,, I need a sign
https://x.com/AlanJacobyJr/status/1891809844606259415
Well if you’re going for signage:
https://www.amazon.com/Disease-Destroying-America-Decoration-Outdoor/dp/B0CG67NR3K
They have that in t-shirts too. :)
A few days ago @C brought up an interesting question…
(“Summary: Post-1945 German history’s central question asks how Germans remembered their complicity in genocide, annihilationist war, and racial dictatorship?”)
probably for the same reason why I switched parties… I for one was a loyal Democrat! would argue their actions and reasoning..then Trump got in office.. the unending attacks that were obviously slanted.. we still don’t watch network news the I hate trump networks.. one night on the evening news there was a negative comment every fifteen seconds..even in the programming..it wasn’t news it was brainwashing..
Well this got me wondering..why weren’t there more democrats throwing up their arms in an attempt to stop the atrocities the party was pushing! it was fear of retribution.. one look at the agencies and their attacks on PTA members and churches questioning the attacks and rapes of students by male students that pretending to be another gender to gain access..the Jan 6th march on the capital that we now know had more agency men than demonstrators pushing the agenda.
where the voice was heard was in the election results..
now Trump…look what Done is doing today..uncovering the massive corruption and Graff the sheer mismanagement of American taxpayers money.. He’s one of the members of the B club.. my guess is he probably knew his first term about alleged mismanaged funds.. if A MORON in the wastelands that makes minimalistic income has that view I am sure someone in the B club does also.. why else would you need to have fifty thousand page tax laws?
I personally believe he was letting some of it slide by..then after the nonstop four years of legal hell.. well I know I would be there to..ok make my life hell so lets really uncover what everyone is up to.
Members of Congress so caught up in the depth of it all..throw it all out there for the people to see just what these people are up to..
I still would like a t shirt with the doge emblem on it..go big balls go..
LoB,
I think it’s a slow roll. One thing resonates, maybe 25 more things are Tweeted, then another resonates. Before one knows it they’re on the bandwagon.
Over this past weekend Trump Tweeted:
“He who saves his Country does not violate any Law.”
For some reason that resonates with me. Why shouldn’t we rat-out scofflaws?
When we see someone getting ahead by being crooked, what gives them the right? I pay my taxes, as I see them, never cheat and never get audited.
Those Pallies, though. They got short ended for sure. But I’m reminded of a movie quote:
“The only reason that they all get to continue living like kings is cause we got our fingers on the scales in their favor. I take my hand off and then the whole world gets really fuckin’ fair really fuckin’ quickly and nobody actually wants that. “
tee shirt, tank top, sweat shirt,or hoodie?
what’s ure style?
https://teleteeshirt.com/product/d-o-g-e-doge-in-big-balls-we-trust-american-flag-t-shirts/
LOL LOL LOL thanks for that.. got one ordered LOL LOL LOL
Trump hung himself out there like bait on a hook for 4 years enduring all kinds of anti constitutional, anti American lawfaring, information wars and attempted murder imho. And now, don’t all those actors feel some pressure in outing themselves ? As they send their “anonymized” web impression to Ft Meade via Utah er ah I mean the cloud.lol.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/eruption-bleachbit-wipe-hard-drive-offshore-bank-searches-dc-suggest-deep-state-panic
Yes trump.. I believe the first time around was going to ignore some of the crap they were doing.. the members of congress have been really exposed for their mismanagement of our resources.. there should be a way to make them actually write this crap.. I believe they go by the front page.. the paragraph showing the intent for the thousand page bills they vote on.. none of them spend any time on the floor.. they really could care less.. now if they could just keep that lead in paragraph and toss out the rest of that crap then it wouldn’t be so bad.. the only reason why they write it into a thousand pages is to confuse.. they know that the members of congress aren’t there.. they only work what less than a month a year.. and when you see film of them in session usually there is only five or six actually that show up at all.. we had one member of the house that voted against the farm bill.. the reason she read the dam thing.. and her response was if you had read it you wouldn’t have voted either.. they bury it .. then deflect zones.. deflect to some other piece of shit paper that deflects to another.. if your working less than a month total for a year.. you just don’t have time.. so they vote by the lead in paragraph.. not the substance of the bill…
Now we have big balls showing just how corrupt our system is.. and how our legislators are screwing us by not reading this shit.. what almost a half trillion sent to an empty building for programs that were closed and eliminated when I was a teenager.. give me a break…
I once got in trouble at work.. the director of nurses pulled me into the office.. and said we have real problem here.. your not charting on your patients.. you haven’t charted on so and so for over three months.. what do you have to say for yourself.. I said that is an easy one.. they died… I can’t chart on a patient that has expired..
the other one was.. you aren’t walking so and so.. that to is easy.. they don’t have legs.. got anymore you wish to ask about.. nope..
they hadn’t updated or paid any attention to their own patient rosters.. its the same situation with our congress.. they don’t read the stuff.. the most use the floor of congress gets is from the Aids that use it for a sex studio while congress is gone paying attention to their donors.. now we have big balls.. he is pulling this stuff our and saying what do you have to say for this one…
all while we have veterans and elderly suffering in our society we are tossing the future of our country out the window..
all I can say is good job DOGE great work big balls
Social Security fraud payments are quite a scandal but just wait until Musk discovers all the cement bricks covered in yellow paint during his Fort Knox audit!!!
I just mentioned Trump’s Tweet to LoB.
“He who saves his Country does not violate any Law.”
If we know of someone gypping SS*.* maybe we should rat them out.
I don’t know, shrugging shoulders.
That will be interesting!
I believe there’s probably as much gold there as there is backing the federal reserve..oh wait the dollar isn’t backed by anything except a promise.. lol lol.. time to. ark it up with peanuts yup nut bucks put mr. peanut on the dollar bill..
https://www.bg27.com.br/media/catalog/product/cache/1/small_image/400×276/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/b/g/bg00587_01.jpg
Lol lol lol..the dollar isn’t even backed by s@#t stains from juicy farts…lol lol lol I believe the reason was if the world actually knew what we have..then the dollar would be exposed as valueless and our position as the economic leader would be destroyed.. when Germany asked for their gold backed we attacked and stood the bold from two countries.. where did that gold go. I am guessing it was used to repay Germany for the gold we stored for them.. we hesitated on returning it until we acquired the gold football’s from the other two countries.. If… that’s what actually happened it would propell the Bric’s to become the world financial leader and the families that have ran the planet would have to step aside allowing a multi polar planet..
Only Gold left in Ft Knox is owned by the FED – a private consortium of money changers who OWN USA.. own it. How much of what ever is left in da vault is more than likely Tungsten bars “plated” or clad.
Rumored military flights tween London and Kentucky , undercover of darkness.. rumored/ unverified
They better be checking all legitimate looking gold bars for both tungsten and perhaps a drill assay!
No need to drill. Hand held X-Ray Fluorescence devices are available to test the purity of things like PM’s.
Pulse-echo ultrasonic inspection can be done to verify not only the thickness of the component layers, but with comparison standard samples, the identification of the materials can be done with high confidence.
I could do this with a rented instrument.
(That’s how stupidly easy it is.)
Not hard at all. No drilling, no chips or drill tailings to be re-melted.
Hey WotRR… Would those units be manufactured by dominion ? I couldnt resist.
G. A. STEWART: Nostradamus seems to predict that Americans will be slaughtered trying to break into Fort Knox after paper money becomes worthless.
AMERICAN CITIZENS ATTACK FORT KNOX
PART I
Nostradamus Quatrain X-81
Treasure placed in a temple by citizens of Hesperia [America],
Therein withdrawn to a secret place,
The temple opened by starving bonds,
Retaken, ravaged, [those] in the middle horrible prey.
AMERICAN CITIZENS ATTACK FORT KNOX
PART II
Nostradamus Quatrain X-82
Cries, weeping, tears will come with knives,
Seeming to flee, they will deliver a final assault,
Parks around to set up high platforms,
The living pushed back and murdered instantly.
AMERICAN CITIZENS ATTACK FORT KNOX
PART III
Nostradamus Quatrain X-83
The signal to give battle will not be given
They will be constrained to go out of the park,
The banner around Ghent [Ghent, Kentucky] will be recognized,
Of him who will cause all his followers to be put to death
https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2021/01/02/hard-truths/
‘Facts are so damn bothersome, ain’t they’ https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-doge-social-security-150-year-old-benefits/
The database Musk took the screenshot from listed almost 400 million people, which is more than five times the number of people receiving benefits in 2024, according to the SSA’s own website. It’s also significantly more than the entire US population.
The fact that the Social Security system contains millions of entries from people who are dead is likely distinct from a potential COBOL-caused error, and also not news. A report written by the SSA’s inspector general in 2023 found that 98 percent of those aged 100 or older in the Social Security databases are not in receipt of any benefits. The report added that the database would not be updated because it would cost too much money to do so.
D’uh Homer whats your next fear mongering frenzy?
“The report added that the database would not be updated because it would cost too much money to do so.”
Perhaps the 900 million dollars wasted on an electric school bus project in Canada that is closing without one bus produced might have helped cover the database updating cost.
Oh, man, will that get ugly quick. The caretaker of Fort Knox gold storage have got to be running scared. Watch the news for suicides in high positions, because those guys won’t allow themselves to be jailed.
Consider that one… what happens to the federal reserve when they do audit and see that we only have empty vaults…. or seriously reduced amounts.. the whole fiat system globally will crumble and since china and russia have been buying gold in huge amounts.. they will be propelled to the head of the class..
https://youtu.be/dCD9Eemz6Zs
LOL LOL LOL I hear ya.. they found we have several thousand that are 150 years old LOL LOL LOL
Daughters and friends booked flight out of Toronto Sunday morn at 7am. Weather woes delayed flight again and again and were finally set to fly last evening but the flight from Minnesota delayed some more. They flew out this morn at 4, supposedly hotel rooms were comp’d.
How do you land upside down without a few injuries, eh?
There’s a reason seat belts are required to be fastened upon landing. Quite the carnival ride.
I’m hoping any missing Ft Knox gold was just moved to other safe storage areas. Last audit was 1974. Perhaps Pres Ford did that to safeguard the gold and the mystery has been fot safety reasons. But it would be good to know.
Back seat of Biden’s ‘Vette.
When You Need A Storage Unit Cleanout – Junk King
“Junk King can be your answer to taking care of your storage unit cleanout and junk removal. Best of all, we haul it away for one simple price.”
https://www.junk-king.com/blog/article/when-you-need-a-storage-unit-cleanout
ZEROHEDGE
Musks xAI unveils State of the Art AI Bot, surpassing OpenAI and DeepseekI’m guessing blowing Chat GP out of the water as well …..
Now for all the fake GPU sales NVDA made sitting in warehouses ….
Good Lord. Musk intends to use xAI to build a video game studio:
Elon Musk Is Serious About His xAI Video Game Studio
While you may not believe he has time for this, Elon Musk has once again circled back around to his idea about making an AI-based game studio. Musk confirmed that he is still making an xAI game studio, saying:
“It’s got to be done. Make video games great again!”
echoing an adapted Trump phrase as he’s done before.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2025/02/18/elon-musk-is-serious-about-his-xai-video-game-studio/
On our recent trip to south MO for a funeral I saw several large signs on I 44 advertising Vulture remediation. Seems they are becoming a problem down there. Another story. Dad was still alive and I was down working on the house while Mom and Diana went shopping. They came home and mom told dad that there were a bunch of Vultures on the ground in pasture on the other side of the highway that belonged to an elderly neighbor in his 90’s. She said that his tractor was sitting by where the vultures were. Dad and I hopped into my truck and drove over. In this pasture there is a sunken area you can’t see from the road and the tractor was sitting on the edge of it. When we got to the tractor we saw Leroy laying on the ground at the bottom of the depression not moving.. When we got to him my dad about crapped his pants when he rolled over and said, “Hey there neighbor.” He said he fell off the tractor and rolled down the hill and couldn’t get himself up. After a lot of arguing we agreed and helped him back up the rise to his tractor. When he saw the vultures he said “Mary told me not to lay down outside because the vultures would get me.”. We laughed all the way back home.
His wife passed about a week later followed by him a couple weeks after that.
-2 with -25 windchill
Stay safe. 73
Stay safe
-58 F with the wind chill here in Saskatchewan last night. I bet that makes Texas feel balmy.
Balmy in the boonies…in the land of cooties and booties…
“like the vultures and by the end of the month, we get the sense of seat belt testing.”
I have been trying to imagine being strapped into my seatbelt and the plane flips upside down on landing like Delta in Toronto yesterday. I guess it is better than not having it fastened but must have some serious headaches when unbuckled.
A vid hit the news cycle today. The plane was equipped with breakaway wings, designed (AFAICT) to eject and blow themselves away from the fuselage in a rollover. Nasty-looking crash, but no fatalities.
Democrat idiots are trying to blame the incident on Trump.
Canada has the best ATCs in the world.
I’d guess the crash was caused by a microburst — not pilot error and certainly not an ATC miscalculation…
Woo-lins.
Maybe related to Gemlins –A term well-known to airmen, especially mechanics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greml
But maybe not so fanciful as first thought.
A L-O -T of minor and completely unrelated minor bugs have been driving me krazzy lately. In sytems and devices unrelated in any way, Computer glitches, radio problems, refrigerator cramps — the list is long and silly. Even the doorbell has become erratic.
I’ve seen this before in my many years as a technologist. It always seemed a minor ironic dark joke. Couldn’t POSSIBLY be anything to it.
And — always — it passes quickly.
BUT. Over many years, I’ve seen this before. Minor storms — merely irritating, mostly — of problems. Stumblibg blocks. Slow-downs. Barriers to smooth progress, Minor falures in things that usually simply don’t ever break. Usually inexplicable. Usually mysterious
Been a L-O-T of these around here lately. Almost like a crazy sort of tekno virus — but in UNrelated things.
Am I alone this last week in this?
Or is the periodic random perversiy of Universe NOT so random, maybe?
KW1B
I noticed all the leftist trolls were absent on President’s day. Are the lefty trolls evaporating ahead of schedule ? Apparently they didn’t take the severance deals.
Maybe they are busy setting up new real identities ahead of warrants.
They left Jester to try and give an alternate explanation for the SS fraud issue. I actually hope that the COBOL dating issue turns out to be right. The idea that 20 MM progressives are being funded out of my SS annuity money leaves me colder than a Canadian in February.
re: “Crisis of Stability” 1783-2025
feat: starboard anchor
Folks,
President Zelensky had sharps in hand at Ankara. He and the First Lady snipped a ribbon opening the new Ukraine Embassy building on ‘Starboard’ Street in the “Trouble”(?) district. The President and his entourage posed for a photo op before the edifice whose wall bore a Turkish inscription translating as “sovereignty belongs unconditionally to the nation”.
Turkish media outlet “Yeni ?afak” (New Dawn) noted the presence of “Crimean Tatar diaspora” elements in the Ankara Ukraine Embassy building. President Zelensky was quoted saying “Ukraine recognizes the Crimean Tatars as an indigenous people of Ukraine…”.
According to “Wikipedia”, the Crimean Tatar diaspora began in 1783 with a Russian annexation of Crimea, and Stalin allegedly completed the Tatar expulsion in 1944.
re: Oarfish
feat: demon of the c troubles
‘Hello World’,
Have you seen those msm media reports about the oarfish washing up out of the depths which legend suggests is a portent of trouble?
Move over, Maverick! The first day in the year of the snake saw animated film “Ne Sha2” by director Jiaozi (‘Dumpling’) released in Mainland China. It has already hauled in $1.75 billion. The film surfaced in British North American theaters last Friday, and will hit Hong Kong and Macau on February 22nd. I had never heard of the movie, but apparently its part of the Fengshe (‘Wind Serpent’) Universe. Sorry, no, make that the Fengshen Universe. Fengshen Universe is supposed to be based upon the late 16th century book “Fengshen Yanyi” (‘Investiture of the Gods’) by Xu Zhonglin. The book covers the fall and rise of Chinese dynasties from 1600 bc until 256 bc as supernatural beings interact with humans.
I entered the movie poster in a translator out of curiosity.
‘The devil boy makes trouble in the sea.’
‘There will be a grand screening in Hong Kong and Macau.’
‘Pay close attention to the release date.’
The remaining characters will not translate for me.
In Doger news, MCGA! The State Council of the People’s Republic of China reporting to the Chinese Premier lauded last week’s opening of the new Tesla Battery Megapack Factory in Shanghai. It’s next door neighbor Gigafactory is already delivering a one-half portion of global Tesla vehicle production. Here is a link to the State Council webpage:
https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202502/11/content_WS67ab0e6cc6d0868f4e8ef917.html
.
Yes – but when did they all come to USA ?
I have been imbibing in tartar sauce on my Fried Fishies(Fish&Chips) as long as I can remember. Which tells me they (Crimean “Tarts”) must have diasporaed themselves before 62′ – I know, what a fine Year.
Hotdog Relish and Mayo – the only way to dress Ure Fish Sticks, okay Ill give ya Catsup.
84 and partly cloudy today – Pool is looking mighty inviting this AM, as Russels always need to take a dip after morning leg stretch (Dog Walkies) and Daddy needs to wash off the Sweat & DEET .
?Is Ure brass monkey still holding balls, or has that funky monkey started to contract and drop his balls? inquiring minds…
I guess this means that everyone except Ure non-leftie readers are getting checks:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/doge-finds-47-trillion-virtually-untraceable-treasury-payments
Do Canadians get US Treasury checks ?
in 2022 there were around 84,000 people 99 or older collecting benefits.
https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/benefits/ra_age202212.html
a lie can make it around the world before truth is out of bed.
y’all are being used as tools to cut social security benefits to give your billionaire overlords tax cuts.
truth,
Actually there remain tax cuts in place for little people making less than $150,000 per annum. The 2025 Tesla website offers the deets on eligible vehicle purchases. The ev and ancilliary items tax credits stem from President Biden’s 2022 Inflation Reduction Act which came into force in 2023. Some of the provisions extend out to 2032. Typical ev purchasers, of Teslas and others, may wish to think of it as the equivalent of receiving 3 ounces of gold tucked in the glove compartment at vehicle delivery? I’m not suggesting that I agree with the subsidy program. The facts are simply the facts. Here is the Tesla webpage link which offers a program outline:
https://www.tesla.com/IRA
It leads to an informative IRS website link where kilowatt hours of brain power can be consumed figuring out the bureaucracy-side. Here is the IRS link:
https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/credits-for-new-clean-vehicles-purchased-in-2023-or-after
Haven’t heard any proposals to cut SSA benefits coming out of DOGE so far for lawful recipients. Do you have a source for that ?
Given that my SS payments will be based on what I and my employers have paid in to my account, I’m not sure how a tax cut for rich bastards really works. The people with the highest earned income and SS tax bills also get paid the most.
n, Any income over $165,000 per year gets a free ride (no Soc Sec Taxes paid over this figure!) Only the 99% carry the burden…(heard any proposals to correct this imbalance lol?)
https://www.ssa.gov/faqs/en/questions/KA-02387.html
In 2035, your Soc Sec check will be reduced to 83% unless some math whiz figures out how to restore the fund: (hint, giving humungous tax cuts to the rich needs to change)
https://www.cnbc.com/select/will-social-security-run-out-heres-what-you-need-to-know/
Cut health care for the poor to give tax breaks to the wealthy!
https://www.protectourcare.org/republicans-want-to-rip-away-health-care-from-over-72-million-americans-on-medicaid/
Republicans will create at least a $50 billion hole in state budgets annually to pay for tax breaks for the wealthy and corporations.
12 states have a Medicaid expansion trigger law, which means that if Republicans gut funding for Medicaid expansion, 4.2 million would quickly lose their health care.
Medicare’s fund also in trouble:
https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/medicare-insolvency-deadline-trustees-2024-report/715342/
‘A key trust fund underpinning the massive Medicare program has a new insolvency date: 2036, according to a new report from the Medicare trustees.’
D’uh Homer, stay healthy!
You didn’t respond to my original question, C-truth. You have no source for your made up DOGE SSA cut.
The Medicaid and Medicare are not SSA issues. You didn’t have a source for your assertion, so you went off on an unrelated tangent to deflect the question.
So, again, where is this DOGE proposal to cut SSA benefits, Bart?
Show the facts or step aside.
In late 2020 Home Builder Confidence Index touched 90%., since that impressive mark was hit and Biden policies started in, it has steadily fallen.., and came in this morning at just over 42 %. Mortgage rates, Tariffs on steel an aluminum and still no word from Trump on eliminating Biden’s regulations and policies that the builders felt as though they were “being strangled” has weighed on the builder’s optimism.
When Thursday arrives, Trump will have been President for four weeks.
Not four years. Not four months… Four weeks.
Yet the media is screaming because four years of Biden and a year of COVID haven’t been undone, yet…
Very informative video on LED bulbs and legislation about to hit. It has spectrograms of LED outputs, incandescent, and sunlight. It goes into NIR and the need for it in human biology, along with the adverse effects of new DOE rules on such out of visual band wavelengths:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0m1Qekrfs7w
Allegedly, Trump is going to shitcan those rules and bring back incandescents.
I hope so… I like the LED bulbs but there are a few places I like a regular bulb..
…Like in an “Easy Bake Oven.” ;-)
1: – Collectively, 205 fund managers hold $482 billion in client assets, and have on average of 3.5% of their portfolios in cash, the lowest cash level since 2010.
2: – 82% of fund managers believe a global recession is unlikely over the next year, the highest optimism in three years.
3: – 89% of respondents said U.S. stocks are overvalued, the most since at least April 2001. And, 92% still recommend buying stocks.
– To my calculator all three of these are economic Red Flags.
.
Many of these fund managers have stated that Berkshire Hathaway is wrong in that they are constantly being a net seller in this market., and raising so much cash. [ $310billion.]
“If you want make money in a financial down turn., be a contrarian.” Warren Buffet.
Twice before Buffet & Team have gone against the herd and built a huge pile of cash. The Dot Com Bubble was a prime example. Both times that they were a net-seller, it paid off very well.
.
Will history repeat itself ?
Berkshire Hathaway A-Share Price on February 14: $719,146.00 [ NYSE: BRK-A ]
The most expensive stock in the world. Up 6.5% so far this year
There are 1.45 million Berkshire Hathaway Class A (BRK.A) shares outstanding
., and 2.17 billion BRK-B shares outstanding.
Combined shares of Berkshire Hathaway are worth an incredible – $2.107 Trillion dollars
1,042,761,700,000- A
1,064,280,000,000 -B
Who do you believe / follow ?
My bet ? – Berkshire Hathaway has more in cash and treasuries then all 205 fund managers, combined in client assets. That is a pretty ‘big’ statement. And twice before when they have built their cash pile this high, the markets tanked 20%, or more and that strategy paid off handsomely. [ Contrarian.] Which it seems, those fund manager are deliberately forgetting / ignoring. [ Possibly as a sales-pitch to/for their clients ?]
Geotheagitator : hope not. I’m not even sure video within the vaults are a great idea but that’s just me. Were the oft reported AU not to be there, in horde, well … twood be earth-shattering. I believe the bars are there. Knox has a series of vaults though so tricksy to verify much Precious. There will never be a bar count (audit, with bar numbers checked against ledger). So, no one will be happy in the end.
I’m pretty sure the CiC (all of them) has been informed, from reliable sources, whether the gold is “in the house” so now, DJT wouldn’t allow inspection without … knowing it’s there. So, it’s there.
To be divided. It’s OK. To dig at each other continually isn’t healthy. The Left needs to accept their policies caused a tsunami. The Right needs to be more gracious in victory. I keep wondering if true colossal dangers like an asteroid inbound will be required to bind our nation? Hope not.
It’s been (4) months since the General Election. Wait, we elect Generals? Must have been on the back of my ballot? Anyway, both sides still seem spoiling for a fight. Let’s not.
SnowMan Egor
“The Right needs to be more gracious in victory. ”
I beg to differ. When I see true insurrection advocating murder such as this:
“Deranged Leftists Call For Violence, Assassination Of Musk And Trump”
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/deranged-leftists-call-violence-assassination-musk-and-trump
I say proactive prosecution to make examples and put it down as not tolerable in a civil society!
“There will never be a bar count (audit, with bar numbers checked against ledger). So, no one will be happy in the end.”
I would. Count ’em, scan ’em, and check ’em off. There’s only (allegedly) 362,010 bricks @ 33.33lbt (about 27.5lb) each. Can you imagine the arms on Musk’s genius squad after such an endeavor…? :-0
The sheer number of over 100 yr age recipients of ss was appalling. A couple of them were actually older than the age of our country! Does this count as validity of real Vampires? Lol, my guess is it’s just those two legged, parasitic, social benefits monsters who’ve learned to hack the system meant to shelter those who really can’t do for themselves anymore. I value them less than tick & flea excrement. I’d say make examples of them publicly, but those valueless bastards don’t know what shame is.
The apologists and crooks will make excuses — specifically (but not limited to) software error. They call those computers “mainframes.” If they are actual mainframes, they’re 40+ years old and as big as a small house. They’re likely running an operating system that’s either (real) UNIX or BSD with COBOL as their operating system. I don’t see them making an error other than rounding.
Those apologists and crooks will cite performance and other data that’s supplied by the Social Security Administration, to blow off Musk’s findings. The people who would do this, had they lived 90 years ago, would’ve asked Capone to investigate himself, then castigated anyone who disagreed with Alphonse’s findings.
Are Musk’s preliminary findings accurate? Probably not (yet), but they’ll be a damnsight more accurate and more useful than the datadump from SSA (which is why the head of SSA quit and left the building…)
Oops, I meant “COBOL as their programming layer…”
Until Microsoft became ubiquitous, programmers actually programmed – they created the software their company ran on its computers, from scratch, and everything was custom. If “mainframes” the computers be, their processors run at 4.77Mhz and their storage is measured in milliseconds (except on the tape drives, where it may be actual seconds.)
Now, with that said, if this stuff is running on mainframes using COBOL, chances are there is just one computer at each site (how many SSA hubs are there? D.C., NYC, Cincinnati, Colorado {Pueblo?}, SanFran… that may be all). Musk’s whiz kids could take a modern computer running Red Hat or Debian, write a COBOL compiler for it in a couple hours (even I have a COBOL compiler, although I never learned the language — it’s for x86-32 chipsets and is about 300kb in size). They could bleed off every byte of stored information from each of those hubs into a single desktop (the total amount of amassed SSA data is probably less than 1.5 terabytes, even counting all the demographic and DEI data that’s none of the gubmint’s business) and crunch it in less than a day. The time-consuming part would be reading the tapes (which might take weeks…)
‘Point is, Musk can audit SSA to the penny, if he so-chooses, and he can do it without any single-precision rounding errors (or errors of any other kind.) Will he? My guess is it depends solely on how loudly the trolls and crooks holler…
George,
For US equity composites from 27 October 2023: 55/139/135 days … close enough to an ideal x/2.5x/2.5x 3-phase self-assembly equity growth fractal series maximum with the 5 Aug 2024 third fractal of 135 days: consisting of a 3-phase 24/53/60 days :: x/2-2.5x/2.5x maximum fractal series …
Time will tell as always. The expected fractal low is September 2025.
Disqualification Protest! ‘Liquid Snow & 75 F.”
“Democrats Refuse to Consider Repeal of Unworkable, Unaffordable Climate Laws”
No worries George we all know it’s another money grab for NGO operations program, a tax by a different name.
Meanwhile, looks like the WaPo is worried about aiding and abetting the corruption……. Someone might be paying attention over there. Um yes that would be Bezos and crew after their rendition in the oval with 47.
https://www.rawstory.com/washington-post-elon
Perhaps legal and HR collaborated on forfeiture and seizure of assets laws that apply to cooperating with / supporting the graft. Just a bad joke you can’t make this stuff up.
I just found out about this on a youtube video that popped into my feed by pure chance:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMoCzeGnIss
This link has far more details:
https://www.theverge.com/news/612898/amazon-removing-kindle-book-download-transfer-usb
Unfortunately, you must download each ebook separately if it’s even still possible. I only have a few dozen, but others may have thousands.
The ability to maintain ebooks on my own computers even if in a proprietary format is essential to their worth! I won’t be buying any more Amazon ebooks at all unless there’s an extraordinary reason to do so. This is an affront to both the authors and the customers. Perhaps some people don’t care, but a lot of us do. For the record, get your ebooks downloaded before February 26, or your only option will be to screen grab every page! Amazon seems to feel that they have the right to update, modify, or delete any ebook. That’s just unacceptable to a thinking person. This is not about piracy. It’s about keeping what you paid for.
“Now we know why none of that USAID money bought armloads of Peoplenomics subscriptions, I guess: DOGE Uncovers USAID ‘Media Blacklist’ to Censor Reporters Going Against Narrative. Who, us? ”
Actually, yes.
Both Urban Survival and Peoplenomics were on the list, as was Gaye’s site.
I can’t remember who, but someone here linked to the site where the list was published.
“Radical Lefty’s ought to fear payback: Tom Homan says he has asked Justice Dept. to investigate Ocasio-Cortez for advising illegal aliens on how to evade ICE.”
I don’t consider it payback when someone breaks the law and becomes liable for judgement. All Out Crazy is breaking the law and flouting her actions by assuming her political position insulates her from Judgement and her political affiliation elevates her to that upper echelon of society, membership in which guarantees that no one would dare. I would love it if Homan jerked a knot in her tail and sent her to a Federal Court in Oklahoma. AOC would look splendid, turning big rocks into little rocks for the next 20 years…