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Change, Housing, JOLTS and Using AI to Pick Medicare Plans?

Today’s column almost wrote itself after Elaine and I had a peaceful lunch following a morning of chores Monday. The general flow of events was clear, even if the specifics were still drifting. Semi-retired is a great thing.

News Compressor: ON

Let’s begin with the specific drift overnight…because we’re in Day One of a four-day data blizzard.

Markets are waiting, not deciding. Futures basically flat: Dow ?0.07%, S&P ?0.04%, Nasdaq +0.06% pre-open. Monday already took the month’s S&P gain back. Driver is not “AI died.” Driver is oil + duration.

  • 10-year printed a ~19-year high area (~5.24–5.27% session) as Hormuz diplomacy failed to clear. Fed-hike odds for Oct 28th meeting are 72.8 percent – but that’s before Housing.
  • Gold got hit as a rate asset, not as a war asset: ~?4% Monday, spot into the low $4,110s (7-week low). Silver worse. Classic: oil up ? inflation scare ? yields up ? bullion dumped. Which never made sense to me either.
  • Crude is the swing vote. Prints disagree by desk (Brent ~$98–$105 depending on stamp). Directionally: Trump rejected Tehran’s reopen-Hormuz package; Qatar still trying a next shuttle. Energy stocks bid; hyperscalers and chips ate the duration. Nvidia was the exception on a $150B extra buyback auth.

Shop rule: two prices in one kitchen. Diesel/insurance/claims stay sticky. Cognitive output can still cheapen. We’ll save the AI for another second because we also have to watch…

Geopolitics (and what actually moved)

  • US–Iran / Hormuz: no breakthrough. That is the macro event. Everything else is pompoms.
  • Trump–Xi: meeting happened; Taiwan + trade unresolved. Shanghai ?1.67% on the reread.
  • Ukraine: Russian drones on Kyiv (Academy of Sciences among targets). Poland scrambled. Putin ordered +15,500 troops (force to ~2.44M all-in / 1.55M active — treat as announced, not audited). But yeah, the EU has to notice.
  • Gaza: IDF strike reported killing Izz al-Din al-Beik (Hamas northern armed wing). Israel also blew something large in south Lebanon.
  • Myanmar: junta market strike in Kyauktaw, Rakhine — death tallies 33–50 depending on wire. Junta also hunting NUG donors.
  • Other kinetic: Somalia (Baidoa, 23+), Pakistan Kohat police complex (~31), Haiti gang fire, UK 800-officer crime raids, SK says NK mines wounded two in the DMZ.
  • Hardware: DoW/DoD $20.7B AMRAAM multiyear to Raytheon.
    CXMT China memory push $5.2B, bias to domestic toolmakers.
    Taiwan: 3 PLA aircraft / 6 PLAN near-island on the overnight (one into SW ADIZ). (Which is an air defense identification zone, if you’re out of annual and a check ride is due.)
  • US force posture: reporting that US exit from Iraq bases is in motion — read as Iran-corridor politics, not a peace dividend.

We will have our usual two-part column today. It’s the last Tuesday of the month, when the S&P/Case-Shiller housing report comes out. JOLTS at 10 AM.

AI: The Frontier Is Moving?

The answer is Yes! But before we dig in, a nod to gravity as well: Michael Burry believes the AI bubble ‘may burst’ sooner than he first believed.  A year from now, he’s figuring big change will have arrived

Now to the frontier and how “thinking” may be headed for the gallows.  Book-length Peoplenomics piece next week on this but…  I posted an article over at Hidden Guild, where I keep my AI notes and research: Our Next Adventures in AI.

If you’re into this kind of thing, the shift is worth watching. Here is what I think is taking shape:

  1. AI is beginning to resemble a major operating system: a platform on which people will build useful additions.
  2. The old term plug-in won’t quite cover what those additions do.
  3. One branch will be task code. Another will be AI-op code.

Tasker code is the easier one to see. Tell AI, “Read the major news sites and give me a summary of what happened overnight.” The task is defined by the work and its deliverable. You could save that instruction, improve it, and run it again tomorrow.

AI-op code reaches down a level. It tells the machine how to carry out a class of tasks: which sources count, how to handle uncertainty, when to stop and ask, what to record, and what must be checked before an answer goes out. That’s less like asking for a house and more like setting the building code before anybody pours the slab.

We have seen pieces of this idea elsewhere. Browsers have extensions such as Dark Reader and Honey. Audio software has its own plug-in universe: effects, processors, and virtual instruments. Audacity, Reaper, Samplitude/Sequoia, and Pro Tools don’t all handle those additions in the same way, but the larger lesson is familiar. Once people can add functions to a platform, they start sorting those functions by what they actually do.

AI is approaching that sorting moment in near real time. Knowledge engineering needs a vocabulary, and the vocabulary is beginning to crystallize around the jobs we give a machine and the operating rules we expect it to follow.

If that sounds a little too far out before breakfast, think carburetor versus fuel injection. Both get fuel into an engine. But the control scheme changes what you can measure, tune, and build next.

At the Ranch: Using AI to Pick Medicare Coverage

Before I get into this, remember: AI doesn’t make the decision. You do. And if a confident machine sends you down the wrong road, the bill still arrives in your mailbox.

Medicare’s plan-shopping window is coming up. Elaine and I have been with the same Medicare Advantage plan for a long time, so I thought it would be an interesting test to let AI work through the choices with us.

We are fans of Medicare Advantage for our own circumstances. One figure we watch closely is the plan’s maximum out-of-pocket amount, or MOOP. For the plan we were examining, it was about $4,900 per person, per year for covered services under the applicable rules. Naturally, the number alone doesn’t tell you whether your doctors, drugs, dentist, and preferred hospitals fit the plan.

Even with only a handful of providers to compare, the arithmetic takes a minute. Some people value an allowance for over-the-counter items. Some value a gym membership. Those may be decisive benefits for them. Out here, we have yardwork for a gym, and antacids are not high on our shopping list.

We gave AI the plans and our priorities. In about three minutes, it had narrowed the field to two: the plan we already have and the one we had been thinking about.

The interesting part was its detailed discussion of in-network versus out-of-network care and the dental differences. Our dentist participates in only two insurance plans. We have paid out of pocket for dental work this year, so that was more than a footnote.

In past years I have spent a couple of days studying plan materials, making calls, and penciling out notes. AI turned that first pass into an afternoon conversation. We still have to check its claims against the current plan documents and, where it matters, call the providers. A polished answer is no substitute for finding out whether the dentist will actually take the card.

I wouldn’t trust a free AI with anything more valuable than a dill pickle. Paid AI isn’t magically right, either. But as a decision-support tool that helps you ask better questions and narrow the field? The world is moving that way.

Thinking: On the Gallows

More prequel: I first spotted part of this trend around 2004, when Elaine and I were living in Boca Raton. I was in strategic sales and algorithm work for a higher-education software outfit, a Gold Partner.

I told the COO I saw a major growth opportunity: people wanted education in progressively shorter pieces because those pieces were easier to fit into a life already busy and under way.

He pooh-poohed it. Before long, however, bite-sized learning was everywhere. Here are 10 places where that appetite shows up, ranging from formal lessons to quick reference and practice:

  1. SoloLearn: Short, interactive lessons for picking up a coding concept in a few minutes.
  2. W3Schools: A quick explanation and a “try it yourself” box when you need to remember how a bit of web code works.
  3. wikiHow: Illustrated steps for a practical job you don’t intend to study for a semester.
  4. Khan Academy: Short explanations followed by a chance to find out whether you actually understood them.
  5. Chess.com: A puzzle that teaches one fork, pin, or mating pattern while the coffee is still hot.
  6. Wordle: Not a course, certainly, but a daily three-minute workout in vocabulary and deduction.
  7. YouTube Shorts and quick tutorials: One shortcut in Excel, one cooking move, one small repair—useful when the creator knows what they’re doing.
  8. Code.org: Compact puzzles that introduce the logic behind programming.
  9. Skillshare: Creative classes divided into lessons you can fit between other obligations.
  10. OpenLearn: Free courses and short learning units for people who want more structure.

They are not all the same kind of product. That’s the point. The old assumption was that education came in big institutional blocks. People were already voting for smaller pieces, in a dozen different forms.

The Second Lookahead Was Better

In that same conversation, I also told the COO I could see a path back in 2004 to a whole Life Management Package. Not one more app demanding your attention, but something that could help coordinate the moving parts of life. Especially those you don’t want to keep rebuilding from scratch:

  • Education
  • Mate-finding
  • Housing
  • Family planning
  • Tax and investment advice
  • Career guidance
  • Health and medical decisions

That sounded crazy in 2004. I am used to being early. But AI is now creeping toward the edges of that package, sometimes crawling, sometimes taking an alarming leap. It can gather options, compare constraints, keep track of preferences, and help a person see the question beneath the question. The Medicare exercise was a small example at our kitchen table.

I see three larger consequences—assuming the power stays on and the internet works.

First: The cost of routine thinking will keep falling. A great deal of work once sold as “Big Brains for Big Money” is really organized “collection, comparison, and presentation.”   Those skills still matter, but charging a premium merely because the information was hard to assemble will get tougher. Collect, compare, and present is AI’s bread and butter.

Second: A new class of Doers will emerge. Call us the collabs. The machine may spot the failing part, the missed appointment, or the supply pinch. A human still has to get out of the chair, reach the site, deal with the people, and fix the thing—sometimes just before it breaks, sometimes while it is  in the midst of breaking.

Third: The Age of Excess Consumption may begin to sunset. If better tools help us understand what we need, maintain what we own, and make better use of our hours, we may find different ways to value things. I don’t think crypto is the answer. But even there, you can see people searching for new ways to record, exchange, and recognize value.

That’s the New Template beginning to appear. A machine helps with the thinking. A person remains responsible for the choices.

And then somebody has to do the work.

Time to wait for Housing data. Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

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22 thoughts on “Change, Housing, JOLTS and Using AI to Pick Medicare Plans?”

Comments are reviewed by a human because the web is crawling with spammers. Submissions after 4 PM Central usually appear the following morning. After you click Post Comment, you’ll jump back to the top of this article, but your comment is queued up here. We’ve got a robust community and your participation is invited. Some commenters are brilliant. Read a few and judge for yourself. Imagine. You could be one.

    • re: “Proverbs and Epigrams”, Heywood, 1562
      feat: “…freilties pickell…”

      Thanks to DJ George for finding today’s storyline from a pickle jar in the absence of a Dr. Frasier Crane call-in show broadcast. Apparently John Heywood’s “Proverbs and Epigrams” of 1562 is an early introduction of the pickle into the vine of English literature. His poetic line of observation “freilties pickell” is said to imply that “our human flaws and weaknesses are preserved within us”.

      This brings to mind that the incorrect phone number displayed on the intercepted vans at RAF Fairford early this past Sunday morning. The number could be parsed into 5 atomic numbers including sodium and bromine. Reminds me of a volcano experiment in Grade 5 science class that didn’t go as teacher planned.

      Speaking of numbers, sports fans and royalty watchers – you are not forgotten! WWE tag team wrestling updates along with an observation from outside the palace gates all follows after the important msm news.

      Back to DJ George loading up the laugh track on Brian Pickles’ comic strip “Pickles”. Earl and Opal Pickles try to enjoy their septuagenerian retirement along with Roscoe and Muffin. Try as they might, stuff happens.

      • re: An Anniversary
        guest star: tungsten 74; dry run

        Oops, comic strip “”Pickles” noted earlier actually is drawn by Brian Crane. The numbers 74, 24, 11, 25, 35 are what I see in published msm images on sides of vans intercepted at RAF Fairford last Sunday morning. ChatGPT took a ‘what time is it?’ category for its top choice interpretation based upon UK (and Canadian [military]) date convention.

        The following are interesting coincidences from that. Wrestlemania XL saw Roman Reigns pair up with The Rock as The Bloodline (of The Family) against The American Nightmare and The Visionary on April 7, 2024 in the ‘City of Brotherly Love’, Philadelphia, Pa. Tag team match winners were Roman Reigns and The Rock.

        Not to be left out, my browser served up a “Daily Mail” story about Pope Leo IV’s visit to Monaco. He met Prince Albert and Princess Charlene (feminine form of Charles) at their palace situated atop Le Roucher (fr: The Rock of Monaco) on March 28, 2026. Pope Paul III had been a last prior Pontiff to visit Monaco in 1538. He acted as a shuttle diplomat between Holy Roman Emperor Charles V and King Francis I of France. (Separately in 1538, Nostradamus is said to have met(?) the future Pope Sixtus V in the Italian region of Ancona (gr: elbow).(?)

        A top news item for Ancona on last March 28th was a minor injury single vehicle accident involving a young man riding a Ducati (it: duchy; lat: duke) motorcycle. Apparently Ducati manufactured “radio components and condensers” back in the day before moving into motorcycles. The accident took place in front of the Osteria vella Vedova dining establishment. Their website appears to be curated by a Russian speaking woman engaged in the tourist industry.

        The restaurant’s name inspiration is suggested as being Trattoria Ca’ D’Oro, informally known as Ca’ D’Oro alla Vedova, which welcomes diners in Venice. Its name derives from the nearby Ca’ d’Oro (it: House of Gold) Palace. Marino Contarino commenced construction of the edifice in 1421 following his marriage to Soradamor (it: gilded with love) Zeno (gr: gift of Zeus/divine). Later in life he became a Roman Catholic Bishop.

        According to the ChatGPT, if the phone number above from the RAF Fairford van is considered as 7424 and 112535, each digit added individually gives two sums of 17. The phone number’s value is also 17 by using the “Mispar Katan” method to yield the Tetragrammaton “YHWH”.

        Meanwhile in London, the April 7, 2024 changing of the guard at Buckingham Palace featured a dry run rehearsal for the following day. French troops joined British troops in the ceremony for the first time ever. A similar exchange took place at the Élysée Palace changing of the guard in Paris on the same dates. This special event took place in recognition of the 120th anniversary to their 1904 signing of the Entente Cordiale. It squared off against their then Triple Alliance opponents comprised of Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy.

        • I apologize, please disregard the above. Allegedly the farmer who alerted authorities early last Sunday morning became suspicious because the alleged perps’ mobile phone number on their vans was short by one digit. UK domestic dial phone numbers should have 11 digits.

          The farmer witness must have been incorrect. The phone number currently being noted from published images of the perps’ van is now published as:
          0742 418 2599.

          “Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

  3. Note: Spock consults computer (AI), then Spock gives instructions to Scotty,…

    “Mr. Scott, reverse polarity on your magnetic probe.”

    “Reverse polarity? That will take some doing!”

  5. Dill pickles are one of my most favorite things to snack on. Ever try dumping a bag of baby carrots into a jar of your favorite pickle juice? Oh yeah? But your comment that you don’t trust a free AI with anything more valuable than a dill pickle is golden. Finally got Diana home over the weekend and my time is limited now to her. I still need to take care of the ranch and the house.. I won’t bore anyone with all the prognosis and diagnosis. I know all the calls are meaning well but nearly all of them say “(insert name of AI) says……”. I deal with it now by just saying I have to go and hang up or walk away. So maybe if I use your most eloquent phrase first then hang up or walk away I might come off a bit less of a jerk. One of two things will happen. They will get over it or they won’t.

    Stay safe. 73

  6. You never hear anyone talking about how the keystone pipeline might have been saving our butts right now. Ol pedo joe knew better than anyone else that we didn’t need that pollution causing monster, right.

  7. Thanks for the Pape book recommendation yesterday, looks interesting so I ordered it in.

    Been laid up since Thursday with what has turned out to be Gout IN MY KNEE though it took me to the middle of the night Saturday to figure that out. Never knew Gout could get into a knee but it was so bad I could NOT move my knee at all without massive pain. Getting into or out of a chair was almost impossible, as was getting into and out of bed. Once I figured out what it probably was I put myself on some left over Gout Meds and settled in for a few days of being housebound while my knee heals which was good.

    Why Good? By not being able to go anywhere, even getting out the chair more often than once every 3 hours or so, I was able to go watch a bunch of videos and read a bunch of articles about the US/Israel vs Iran War. Concentrated uninterrupted time that is almost impossible for me to come up.

    Professor Pope (the book author referred to by George) had several videos where he was interviewed which were among the best I watched which I would highly recommend. Since he is a college professor he does his pod cast interviews differently than most, he treats them as if he is in a classroom lecturing his students so his thoughts are clear and well organized, no scattered approach in his delivery and no wasted time for the viewer (student).

    Virtually all the videos about the War (from everybody) were very negative about the outcome for the US of it’s War against Iran. I looked but couldn’t find a single one that gave a happy ending of the US being in as good a position when everything is over as it was BEFORE the US/Israel launched their surprise attack on Iran. Your results may different if you do your own search.

    Anyway ,,,, the best Professor Pope interview that I found, not one that concentrated on his new book which he barely touches on in the interview (probably because it was made a couple of days before the book was released), is linked below.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VLAS8vHMRc

    • Stephen 2,

      Gout is indeed serious. Gout is a type of arthritis that is composed of little crystal needles of uric acid that should have been flushed out through the kidneys but inadvertently gets into the blood stream. It usually begins in the big toe but can travel everywhere in the entire human body. Meats high in purine, like beef and pork, can be attributed to gout, plus sugary drinks, beer, and wine. Certain types of vegetables, fruit, and even seafood can contribute to gout. Please check the internet for the exact foods that can flare up gout symptoms. There are meds you can take, like allopurinol, that help with gout. Gout is particularly bad if you have any heart or kidney issues.

      • I think my problem was excess consumption of cheese combined with my morning sausage /cheese /egg sandwichs (LOVE my self made morning sandwiches)

        Picked up a huge bag of shredded cheese at the local discount grocer (huge bag = same price as two small packets at the regular grocery store) and had been having plates of chips with melted cheese on top every evening for several days, ignoring the small discomfort in my big toe thinking maybe I bruised it.

        Lesson learned about excess cheese consumption!! combined with not enough water consumption!!

  8. “US–Iran / Hormuz:”

    Trump began the attack 213 days ago. He said the attack would last four to six weeks. Who fell for it?

    If you fell for 1/10th of Trump’s shtick you should look in the mirror, reconcile and stop voting – especially by mail!

    People shouldn’t vote by mail/where’s the mailbox so I can drop my vote?

    “Doublethink is the power to hold two contradictory beliefs in one’s mind at the same time, and to accept both of them as true.”

    It’s always the messenger.

  10. The vigilantes are back. Had a sheriff and a motorcycle cop waiting when I walked out of restaurant I have done business with for years. Never been ambushed there before. They left me alone. One of them gave away who they were sent to ambush when he saw me and broke out laughing. That’s preferable to running over me. Still, the vigilante who dropped the dime on me needs to be evaluated by a clinical psychologist, and should be interviewed for connections to known vigilante gangs and harassment for hire outfits. If their papers are not in order, the vigilantes need a free ride home.

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