Reader Note: Because of a power failure, we are posting in section this morning, powered by our ultra reliable backup power systems, but mindful we don’t know how soon before power will be restored. To make sure you get the most current revisions, hit refresh and clear your browser. And yes, this is on top of the dated caching being done of this site by the nefarious side of the net that doesn’t tolerate Texas Straight Talk well….
In case you missed it, the market fell on its butt yesterday, right in perfect rhyme with our Peoplenomics report on how certain indicators are just screaming that the US economy is in a heap o’ trouble.
One of the indicators in yesterday’s report was to note how port traffic through West Coast ports has collapsed. Another dealt with how rail traffic, except for energy and grain, is also doing poorly for an economic “recovery” which we precisely questioned as “able to recover?”
This morning, things don’t look like they will get better: The Dow is set to open down another 100 points, or so, and with it will come the goal line stand at 2,040 on the S&P 500.
Once we get below that, then we will be in something akin to economic quicksand.
The world doesn’t end – in terms of rolling up into a replay of 1929 or the 2009 lows, but that’s not something we would worry about until and unless we see the S&P take out 1,740. When that happens, you will want to be short the market because we have been saying this for years: If we hit 6,667 again on the Dow, there would be a fourth wave bounce up from there which should be followed by a collapse into unimaginable lows (picture a Dow Jones of 1,000 or lower) and that would be a brutal test of democracy.
For this morning, therefore, we find it’s only a bit of headwind, though enough to have us watching our trading model, the 200 Day Moving Average, and other indicators to see how this will all play out. It’s a little early by some calculations to begin as 2016 low, remember the decline finally hit in 2009 was actually started in late summer of 2008, so getting down (not the music term!) can take a while.
I know, you think I’m nuts, but when terrorism showed up in 2001 to cover up the internet bubble collapse, people thought I was nuts then. Yet, when was the last time someone in your circle mentioned the internet bubble collapse version how often are you being messaged by media to “believe” in terrorism?
We need to keep our wits about us, remain focused, and track the data. Until the 2,040 is overhead and the 200 day moving average with it, we don’t need to put on fingernail nail biting stuff. Yet.
Off in the background, what’s really going on is that the US public has shown again how it only pays half an ear worth of attention to the news flow. Because Janet Yellen’s Fed has been crying wolf about raising rates, out comes a new Gallup poll that says the “Majority of U.S. Investors Anticipate Interest Rate Hike”
One of these times, it’s really going to be a wolf out there. An d then we’ll find out if the house is made out of bricks, wood, straw, or idiots. My money is on the latter.
Middle East War
At least we’re not it in – whole hog – just yet.
But this morning, looks like the Saudis (on the Sunni side) are moving into Yemen because the Iranian backed forces are making big gains.
We have our half-baked headline award this morning for Fox news: “Singapore bakery pulls commemorative Lee Kuan Yew bun after being roasted on social media.”
It’s more subtle than Buns in a Jam, or something.
Scholars of the district know there are least two – the house and senate.
Winds of Spring
The winds are back. One of the great blessings of climate change (if you insist on that label) is that we haven’t had much in the way of tornado or hurricane damage for a good while. But tornadoes are rolling in the Alley again.
On the Brighter Side of Power Outages
I spent a few minutes on the phone with a silicon voice that walked me through reporting our power outage here at the ranch this morning.
After looking up the problem and telling me crews are on scene working on the problem, the automated system asked me to describe the conditions of the outage.
I don’t know how many ways you figure practical Texas types can find to say the power is off, but here is my short list. It’s dark. It’s cold. My coffee is now cold…the wife won’t get out of bed….I can’t take a hot shower…uhh…how am I doing?”
Laughing hysterically, I hung up.
Seriously? How does one power outage differ from another? OMG we have gone over to the insane side of customer service…
(I have no idea what a scientific pro cut tape is, but its worth buying a few just to find out, I reckon…maybe Zeus the cat can use them…)