Cancel Our December Crash Warning?

Oh no you don’t.  We don’t offer financial advice – and besides, yesterday was a very painful day for me, personally.  It was one of those “zigged when we should have zagged” kind of days.

Honestly, I don’t think we’re completely out of the woods, yet.  But, the good news is that whever we’re going next shouldn’t be a “close” replay of 1929.  Look at this chart and you’ll see what I mean:

We mentioned last week (Desperation Rally) was a possibility and right on cue, Futures dip after rally powered by Powell’s dovish comments, reported Reuters.  The open question is how much give-back will follow and is this really a change of trend?

As you’d expect, a number of readers have sent in comments going to the idea that “Elliott Waves” don’t work…”

But, in truth, they do…it’s just that it’s easy to be sucked in to looking at smaller-degree moves and lose track of the bigger picture.

Take our outlook (based on Aggregated Markets work).  You can see how the market zoomed upward yesterday based on some optimistic talking by the Federal Reserve chairman.

But, when we look at both the Elliott counts AND the trend channels, it’s clear that we are still in a larger, downward trend.  In fact, we can go all the way up to the top of the yellow box and still not violate any Elliott “rules.”

On the other hand, with yesterday’s big (and near as we can figure mostly baseless rally) caught me on the wrong side of things and IF I’d taken the loss it would have cost me thousands.

Here’s the thing, though, and why I didn’t take the loss.

I looked at the channels, figured we would have a pullback, so even if we go higher, selling into panic seemed a poor idea.

How much higher could this rally go?  A lot will depend on the next few days and what forthcoming G20 talk, China tariffs do, and let’s not forget jobs data next week.

One of the realities of markets, though, is that sometimes you win, while other times, you don’t.  Betting against the Fed is never wise and they have not interest in seeing the economy collapse because that would violate all their mandates.  They will do what they must.

But, while they’re doing so, we continue to look at the “underlying problems” list…and it doesn’t look to us like much of anything has changed. Except, we’re finding Bitcoin as a pretty interesting indicator of public mood swings.

Personal Income Moves Up

Just out from the Bureau of Economic Analysis:

Personal incomeincreased $84.9 billion (0.5 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $81.7 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $86.9 billion (0.6 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.4 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

As a picture, it looks like this:

Please note, however, this is “rearview mirror” data -takes time to compile and not too much can be done with it…didn’t budget futures.

Life Expectancy Falls

Not a lot – but given a choice between living longer, or seeing life shortened by a a bit wmore than a month and a half, most people would take the additional 52-days.

Two things seem to be driving it:  A rise in the suicide rate.  And a bit increase, particularly in older folks, of drug overdose.  Look at this chart and you’ll see it:

See how 55-64 overdose deaths are climbing?

The Wall Street Journal has a deeper summary over here. But, decline lifespans is not a healthy thing.  Well, except for Social Security funding…which will last a little longer as a result…

Time report that Exercise Is Great. But Even Light Activities Like Walking and Housework Can Improve Your Health.  But as I tell Elaine when she dares enter my office “Vacuuming sucks…

All the Problems Are Still Here

Despite the love-fest from the Fed, our view is the world problems remain essentially unchanged.  The markets were higher November 1st than they are today.  Maybe some of these headlines have something to do with it?

Toss in the background footwork in Ukraine and we wonder what North Korea is up to…and no, nothing much has changed…

A Real Use for Blockchains?

At least it’s more rational than competing groups ofd greedsters making up their own currencies: Blockchain platform goes live for North Sea crude oil trading.

Remember IOur “News Shortage?”

We’ve been watching to see what happens when there’s too much channel capacity and not enough content to see how “news” organizations will cope.

Today, we see from the BBC  How long does it take to poo Lego out if a child eats it?.

On the other hand, the CNN story In some states, this birth month is linked to higher rates of ADHD diagnosis, study says was plain interesting.

And, if you live in the South, this could be a very big deal: Ointment to counter the effects of brown recluse spider bites is tested on humans.

Speaking of bites…time to put on the feed bag, so moron the ‘morrow


author avatar
George Ure
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26 thoughts on “Cancel Our December Crash Warning?”

  1. G- the Goldsacks Bank quant. doubled down on his prediction of that the Pain Trade was UP at the end of last week. They viewed market action as a lot of “smart money” was getting Short the market, and zo up we go..max pain. To which the Debears’ response is, no pain – no gain!

    Don’t look now “Crankapotamuses” ..Crankapotami, but Bitcoin and Litecoin have been “allowed” to move again. Rutrow..

    Def.: Crankapotamus – one who angrily waves their buggy whip at the Software that is going to “eat” all their precious fiat.

    • Dbear – “no pain no gain” is a manta for the gym, not the stock market or any kind of investing. Sort of like buying a stock that turns into a loser & you keep averaging down with buy orders. Get out & put it in something that has a chance of going up. Sell your losers & let your profits ride & you will see your money grow. If your net worth is not increasing every 6 months, you need to reevaluate your plan.

  2. Hi George
    I have a future column request. I don’t really know what 5G is? I have read a lot of confusing statements. Personally I thought the difference between 3G and 4G was the rate of data transmission. Certainly I would appreciate it.

    • Hmm… I am not sure Steve.. but my guess is that 5G is smaller faster and more power..
      Years ago. I had the privilage of being laid up for an extended time. having only one channel to watch and only soap opera’s on tv and just a few books that I had already read a multiple of times I was going nuts.. my buddy came by and had heard that someone several hundred miles away had built a satellite dish.. a road trip was in order.. we get there and I got to visualize myself sitting in front of a television with something more to my liking on ( except for oak island and love it or list it there isn’t a dang thing on though to my liking so pickup a book and let your mind go).. he gave me a legend.. and I went home. so for the remainder of the winter a cigar box project was formed.. and I built a C band receiver and dish.. ( I used a cotton string to get my form) went to radio shack got a dc circuit book and an Rf circuit book and went to town.. the thing worked great except when calibrating come to find out the equipment would cost a lifes savings for me to get.( sort of like trying to get a few grams of titanium dioxide to show the kids how to make a home made solar printed panel using berries.. if your name doesn’t have edu behind it forget that.. LOL.) so I used a diy sextant.. piece of cereal box a fishing sinker and a ruler crude yes but it worked LOL.. sitting on top of a ladder and with the old saying.. can you see anything yet hand calibrated it.( let me state though that it was such a pain in the butt and took such a long time for me to get this similar to my home made freeze dryer.. I had to baby sit this contraption it worked and I had wonderful television but to do it again.. go to the store buy one.. you will be saving yourself a lot of misery..but is it worth it.. nope well at the time it was because I had satalite television before they became a fad.. the dish was huge over shadowed the house made out of chicken wire and fiberglass and weighed a ton..).
      a few years later up came K band.. a stronger band more waves and the dishes no longer the size of the house got smaller.. I am not sure if the home dishes you get today are the k band or a stronger version.. now with 5G microwave.. what it screams to me is that with three and four g that we have filled our lives with so much information being passed through the airs that it is saturated just like the Cband and K band was.. and the need for a bigger band width by going smaller harder and faster the bands can then be layered and separated opening a whole world of levels of communication.. the next one will be six g or ten g..etc.. just find another layer to fill the layers theoretically should be limitless.. kind of like the string theory of communication..
      Hmm sort of like time and space if you think about it.. we have the past present future all laying on top of one another and no way to separate it.. Oops digressing here..
      I think that is what 5G is though a faster form of communication.. the worries.. well I wonder if Cancer could be a worry.. since we are already bombarding ourselves with so many frequencies from so many directions.. a city is so filled with emf that it isn’t surprising there is such a burst of paranoia and violence..
      the old concerns of the short bursts of frequency could fry an egg.. LOL the big argument over getting radio controlled meters on you water and power etc.cancer causing frequencies passing through our bodies.. ultra information.. the cloud has everything passing through at any one moment.. really if you think about that to and AI that should scare you to.. .
      will it fry your brain.. well our brains are already fried using cell phones.. I am pretty sure some time in the future a spike in brain tumors will explode…but it is the new button and string toy..

      • In the MSM there are all kinds of articles about security concerns but little discussion of the technology and how it works.

        True story; when I rented my first home I was in this house near to a tv station and it’s 1000 foot tower. I could put a tv in a table with no antenna and get the station clear as if it was on cable. I decided to move a short time later.

  3. Don’t worry George for a war is coming and no not in the Ukraine for that was only an attention grabber,Syria is the hot spot as the orange clown has sent a very large number of troops along with all their toys to Syria where we have some dozen bases,along with the head choppers from the Arab countries,strange how people get sucked into the slogans from I feel your pain,to change you can believe in to making America great again and I presume the next one will be a chicken in every pot, well if you own a pot that is, meanwhile farm bankrupcies are setting a record number in the mid-west due to the tariffs,yes indeed making America great again as the debt creeps ever forward and they spend billions,trillions on grand adventures in places we should’nt be so the 1% can make a few more million….

    • Seems as if the Trump naysayer crowd is growing each and every day. Trump voters used to be in the HAMY (Hasn’t Affected Me Yet) crowd…But that crowd has dwindled as farmers, factory workers, and more realize that they are not better off with Trump.

      Just wait until 1st quarter rolls around. I guarantee that we will not be able to hear ourselves over the screaming when taxpayers realize that that Trump tax plan was great for the corporations…but not so great for the individual Taxpayer. Many of you will be paying more on your 2018 taxes. I already know I am…by a substantial amount. Maybe that is why Mueller has taken so long. He is letting Trump paint himself into a corner he can’t escape and his supporters don’t want to rescue him from before he releases the bombshell reports.

      • I am a proud democrat.. but I have to say what DJT is doing is refreshing.. Like carter he is trying to go against the puppeteers and actually get something done.. bring back business.. make sure that the USA is getting their fair share of taxes due from companies that left screaming because they wanted more.. rebuild the dollar and make the laborers feel like they are once again a proud part of this country and its core values..
        Has he done things that me me say .. oh no.. absolutely.. will he say things that aren’t politically accepting.. I sure hope so he isn’t a politician.. the minute he comes out with a polished two cars in every garage and a chicken in every pot speech then I will be worrying..
        does he make an OOPS.. yup I hear everyone has an oops.. I know in this house and oops is nothing to worry about.. now throw a temper tantrum.. then the oops isn’t an oops and gets snapped at..
        if he is given a little bit of acceptance I think you would find the american economy strong our job market once again competitive and a happier nation overall..
        If he was smart he would put regulations back on to necessity core services and products again.. they had a medicine on tv last night.. in the usa the cost of it is fifty grand a week in canada.. well way under a hundred.. this crap should never be allowed..
        the price of gas dropped yesterday another nickle.. what is going on there is baffling me .. I want to rush out and buy a tanker.. LOL

        If we had been brilliant.. we would have let the plans that Jimmy had for us.. he took a lot of heat.. but if we had followed it.. we wouldn’t have the worst depression facing mankind looming up in our face right now..

  4. Hi George, excellent again on economic analysis. Not to worry: I made some really bad calls myself before I made my first million.
    And smart of you to stay away from Trump’s weak debacle in Ukraine and his dangling of a bribe to Manafort (my, what do those Ruskies have on him?!!?), the Panama Papers, the skyrocketing national debt and climate change. Best, Mike.

  5. George, unless I read the death chart incorrectly, we who made it to SS collection age have the slowest rate of increases in deaths. It’s probably good for longevity, but it does mean that our contributors are dying off more quickly. That’s just weird. It seems that deaths of 25-54 year olds are at greatest risk.

    FWIW, these are the early adopters of tech. They also push their luck more than older folks. Many have access to the drugs that older folks can only dream of.

  6. Don’t know if you know about the new lithium SimpliPhi batteries. I am completely off grid in central Louisiana. I am able to run an air conditioner all night and keep my bedroom at 64 degrees on the hot humid summer nights we have. The batteries charge and discharge at 45 amps each, which makes for quick charging and lots of power when you need it. I have four of the 3.5kw batteries and have a regular refrigerator, a small freezer, and three room air conditioners that I can run during the day. I’ve had them since august and am really impressed.

    • Thanx Bill I hadn’t heard of them.. I love my present battery system ( thanks to a gentleman that overheard me yacking about what I thought at lunch one day.He stopped me afterwards and we had coffee.. He came through as not only someone full of information but assistance in helping me achieve my long term goals through the years ) but my god.. heavy.. and huge is the word.. I was totally planning on building a power wall this summer using creative readily available parts here.. ..

    • How much do these weigh..
      I have a small six battery pack that produces about sixteen volts.. and had about twelve thousand amps.. give or take.. the darn thing is an average size but weighs somewhere close to a ton.. moving it even with wheels is crazy.. it was the six batteries I had extra and didn’t know what to do with.. nice power use it when I use power tools just hard to manipulate around and work with..

  7. George

    “California still doesn’t get it, though: California AG ‘monitoring’ possible legal action against use of force on border.”

    An idea to secure the southern border.

    From the Pacific coast side of the southern border to the Gulf of Mexico side create a new military base that is at least ten miles wide and runs contigious along the existing border. The existing border crossings would be maintained but heavily controlled by the military. Anyone with property in this area would be bought out by the federal government. Anyone trying to sneak into the country would be caught by frequent military patrols. Drug dealers who fire on military patrols would be summarily destroyed. Do all this under a Presidential Emergency Decree for defense of the country. Any Federal Judge trying to stop this should be arrested for sedition.

    That’s right , a military base about 1500 mile long by 10 miles wide in size! Maybe we could make it 20 miles wide if possible.

    It’s time to stop playing games and save the country!

    • Its all a business model.. Its cheaper to hire illegal imagrants. No taxes lower wages no bennies. Higher bonuses.. Pure they have the laws on the books go and suede assets..fine companies that hire illegal imagrants fine those that are executives. If it persists then seize all assets and shut down the company the same way that drug dealers are dealt with. There isn’t a CEO in any company that would be willing to loose everything the have for an illegal immagrant.. Do that for housing. Now if they want to work and live here raise a family..great welcome..but no federal programs will be available until your a citizen.. You pay all taxes that everyone else has to along with a non resident tax. No free college.. No food stamps heating assistance no day care assistance.
      No free cars or any other giveaway programs. Those programs are paid to support American citizens .
      You don’t hear of an army of illegal imagrants on the Chinese or Russian borders or the Saudi’s.. They are only coming here because they get everything and my personal thought is this is a hideous sideshow by the puppeteers to keep DJT they can further their plans..

      • I don’t think they are ‘allowed and incentivized’ to come here as a business model OR to gain democrat votes. They are here to DEPOPULATE the citizens of the USA; they are here as a REPLACEMENT POPULATION per the UN published and stated objectives. THE SAME is happening in Europe, they are just using the Middle East. THINK: Bush the 2nd and Hillary Clinton are on the SAME TEAM; he started the illegal Middle East wars, and SHE took out Ghadaffi with Obama’s permission, which opened the gateway to Europe. John McCain (when a Senator) and many other Senators AND Representatives have kept our borders WIDE OPEN with those many President’s help (Bush 1, Clinton, Bush 2, Obama); this is a PLANNED INVASION. The media kept the real reasons quiet for over 30 years. NOW it is finally front page news but ONLY with PITY for the illegals; NEVER pity for the American Citizens being raped, murdered, run over, stolen identities, LOST JOBS, and slaughtered at the hands of ILLEGALS. THINK: 30 years of paying illegals under the table, 30 years of hiring them in banking, construction, and in SANCTUARY cities. 30 years of giving them Social Security/Disability, Medicaid, and MANY OTHER government programs too numerous to mention. THIS PUTS ILLEGALS AHEAD OF AMERICAN CITIZENS AND VETERANS FOR EARNED BENEFITS. Thank Nancy Pelosi, Diane F-eind-stein, Chuckie Schumer, and Paul Ryan (AND MANY OTHERS) for opening up our benefits and services to illegals. The thing you don’t realize is this: They make $15.00 an hour or more on the construction sites, they and their families ARE eligible for FREE healthcare and MEDICAID, AND free college educations, and FREE breakfast and lunches, and FREE pre-school through college, already planned out! They get access to our housing programs, food-stamp programs! That is WHY your Social Security BENEFITS won’t be there for you when you need them and EARNED them; they have been depleted by these programs and depleted by not being funded BY FULL-TIME WORKERS THAT DON’T CONTRIBUTE TO OUR SYSTEM. Time to stop thinking in terms of Democrat votes; they just proved to everyone in this last election that VOTES can be stolen. VOTING MACHINES can be hacked. They don’t need them for VOTES! It is an INVASION, hidden by the 6 GLOBALIST corporations that own 98% of our media (all types of media). WAKE UP! You and your children CANNOT out breed them, or compete with the GOVERNMENT both STATE AND FEDERAL giving them the handouts so they get a CATAPULT over you and your children and grandchildren. YOU will go in debt to provide for your children AND they will NOT. BECAUSE they don’t have Social Security Numbers, where the hospitals can track them and charge them or ruin their credit, they can walk in and get FREE healthcare; think of it. YOU GET CHARGED BECAUSE THEY CAN RUIN YOU AND YOUR CREDIT. These illegals skate free! This is the #1 THREAT TO OUR COUNTRY AND WAY OF LIFE! WE CAN’T AFFORD THEM FINANCIALLY, AND WE CAN’T AFFORD THE RUINATION OF OUR GREAT NATION. But, these words will fall on deaf ears; this is the run up to the RUN OVER; more to come.

      • My first comment was my efforts at communicating what I am witnessing. Later today I saw these two pieces. Brighter, more educated minds say this: and this came out also: However, both of these astute Americans do not mention the UN Agenda and Replacement Population plans. See, even these two can’t put their heads around how rephrehensible the elites plans are. and one last item: This is 50 years old, but if the England had listened, it wouldn’t have caused the indigenous English to be a minority in their own lands:

  8. E: No Pain, No Gain mantra works for me not only in the gym, but in life and love as well! This is a fundamental building block for building Antifragile trading systems, just like the human central nervous system. As you know, stress the body with workout induced muscle pain, and the human CNS will respond by sending “the support troops” to site of the pain, to build that muscle stronger(sprinkle w/HGH for faster results)
    Selling Short any security usually involves the market moves against me..until it doesn’t..finally. Buying securities involves pain as well for me, like when put up Cash to buy a stock in hopes that: earnings are growing faster than expected, positive news breaks, and stock just grinds away in a trading range.
    A lot of todays investors have never seen a Bear market, let alone ever talked with Wallstreet pros who were active traders in the 70’s.
    All I used to hear almost every friggin day from my Oldster (who cared)mentor, was “you youngsters have never seen real Bear market, you just think you buy a stock, any stock , and it will always go up” Ha!
    The old bastard was presactly correct, market Crashed in 87, and Specialist firm that I worked for made several fortunes that day in October.
    So yes I average down my positions when conviction is strong and positions value drops 30%, otherwise I start unwinding position at 30% Up or Down.

  9. So sorry to read of the Luddite choir’s steeple of disappointment. Sometimes the anchor drops from above? Ring the bells, Dr. Pavlov?

    Bearing in mind we’re two months past the 80th anniversary of PM Neville’s triumphant return from Munchen followed months later by the long night, an open window invites sojourn amongst the seascape of crashing waves. Cash remains King in Georgetown, we hear. As they say in Sweden:
    “Long live the King!”.

  10. “… comments going to the idea that “Elliott Waves” don’t work…”

    I would like to clarify this issue that they do work in retrospect, and so do other similar counts that work well looked at in retrospect!!

    However, to a trader (who knows his way around!) EWs can easily cause confusion, especially, if interpreted by a very highly intelligent individual (who should be POTUS!).

    I thought the same of DJT after he did a superb job with the iceskating ring in NYC where politicians bungled the job for many years DJT fixed the problem in a few month. However, world politics is a different can of snakes ;-((.

    Btw., the averages have to cleat (2) before I’d consider a bullish stance.

    • Couldn’t agree more. Trade what you see in front of you right now, not what you think might happen in the future due to these rules that seem to take up so much time trying to decipher which path you’re actually running. That time could be much better spent on price action, in my humble opinion.

  11. (George): “Betting against the Fed is never wise and they have not interest in seeing the economy collapse because that would violate all their mandates. They will do what they must.”

    What the heck? Open your history books, please! From 1913 to 1921, with the handing over of the nation’s money supply to the Fed, accompanied by the new “income” tax, all growth came to a grinding stop; and the nation entered a grave recession. Then, still under the new Fed’s “guiding hand”, the United States plunged into a Great Recession starting in 1919.

    The Fed is not an American institution and is not federal at all. Do you really think their alleged honesty and loyalty extends to a non-violation of their “mandates”? Or, are you wearing blinders? Thank you.

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