Bracing for Next Week?

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Options, war talks, FOMC rate signals? What could go wrong? Today we play “Line up the Ducks” and with our ChartPack, skry some tea leaves and ponder “divine future.”

While we do that, a space rescue and some mighty-strange weather deserve some attention, too.

Do be advised that the ChartPack is significant this week (69-pages of text and charts).  But it’s not that b i g because it’s a large, easy to read font in the PDF.

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46 thoughts on “Bracing for Next Week?”

  1. Ure please re-think your anti-environmental policies.

    He wants to buy a couple of acres then destroy its ecology and systems. Killing all its nature. Cut ‘n burn!

    Then dam it to make a pond for a serious invasive species, tilapia.

    :(

    • No worries invasive species…Tilapia will not make it thru a Texas winter unscathed, they no likey cold water. The baldass Eagles on the other hand LOVE em, as easy pickup&takeout filet-o-fish meal..just swoop & clutch.
      Prefer Crappie and Sunfishes Ponds, but most peeps go for the Bass pond. Two kinds – quality trophy size, or quantity of 3-5lbers.

      This Cat – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXv1SYONaYM&pp=ygUIYmFtYWJhc3M%3D- -bammabass – been building backyard ponds up to 5 acre bass ponds past 3 years on Youtube – awesome vids – I learn new scheisse every video almost. Very well done, very entertaining, pretty smart guy for a “Rebel..ya know the “lower slower”..and what not,
      Anyways – Crappie and Bluegills are “Panfish” and are delicious.

      Fish Frys are way of Life in Pennsyltucky.
      > Save up Ure Panfish – toss whole eviscerated (vent2throat) Fish in Freezer..when you have accumulated 50 or more – its Fish Fry Time.

      Let em thaw partially – then Filet em and pass Filet on down table to Kids, who will toss in Cornmeal/eggwash/more Cornmeal&seasonongs(whateveryousegot). Stack those cornmealed filets up in tray and take out to Deepfryer station set up on table Outside..preferably overlooking water/pond.
      Dont forget to invite Family & Friends over 2 Ure FishFry – always better with more peeps involved. Specially since the lady folk tend 2 make tasty side dishes to bring along for the Fish Feast.

      You know what the Fish said when she bumped into the cement wall ?

      “Dam!”

      • “Why did the SEAL bring a ladder to the bar?”
        Because he heard the drinks were on the house—and SEALs never turn down a good rooftop insertion.

      • Why don’t Navy SEALs ever play hide and seek?
        Because good luck hiding when you always make an entrance through the front door… with explosives.
        – – –
        “Get your hand away from that bell, coward.”

      • (“No worries invasive species…Tilapia will not make it thru a Texas winter unscathed, they no likey cold water. “)

        I live a tad north of south texas..I had mine indoors and did quite well… my problem was I couldn’t hmmm …harvest them….they lived quite well.. Now the guy I gave flipper and family to.. he had a pond ..on one end he had like a run over the run he put a hoop covered in clear plastic.. the fish can swim out or during colder whether swim into the solar heated..
        my project I had Red claw.. they grow to about a half pound..
        https://thefishsite.com/articles/cultured-aquatic-species-red-claw-crayfish
        I had regular crayfish from Louisiana.. you can order them and they will ship them overnight..

        https://liveaquaponics.com/

        https://liveaquaponics.com/collections/breeding-colonies

        one important thing is the nursery…you have to have a small area for newborns to hide.. basically a frame covered with quarter inch screen weighted down a few chunks of pipes etc for them to hide in..
        the newborns can swim in it to hide.. flipper was around ten pounds and a couple feet long I had bluegill and perch etc. I worked hauling trash.. they built the dumping station on a huge hill.. all the dirt came out of this little pond its over thirty feet deep spring fed.. my boss and I were talking about it and I suggested hey doesn’t the garbage mans kid work for the parks system..we hot them to dump a few fish in that deep hole some bass and freshwater trout etc catfish .. A wide variety..then we put in a new fence post and made a way in for kids..had the power company and when they were replacing road some large chunks of roadway…..the kids in town can peddle out to this small pond and go fishing..A local bass fishing group comes out there regularly just because they can catch big mouth bass.. that are really big..for a home fish run pond .. you would need to feed them a recirculation fountain pump.
        https://youtu.be/9IXyOUPv2lM?si=CIv0qqONrGRZX0qt
        that’s the feeder I had..
        it was a lot of fun..not really that expensive to do.. George is going a tad larger.. I had enough to feed us..my problem was the fish became pets.. that’s one reason why I will never see the cow that goes in the freezer.. the vet laughed and said if you had it it would die from old age lol.. she was totally correct to..

  2. “Oh – and I may buy an additional acre of land from a neighbor. It’s all deep Texas gully and with a well-planned fire to burn it out, an earthen dam could turn it into a major asset we could both enjoy.”

    Buy gully…that’s a great idea!

    • RandomMike : ironic crazy, I copied the same excerpt from Peoplenomics (the contributor side) to post in a comment. You pretty much handled it!

      My Dad (RIP) often said irt: lake / river front property: “they aren’t making any more of it” which … in this case, per George, they are.

      Friends in central Indiana are contemplating a pond creation (under guise of ditch maintenance). If so, I’m riding backhoe …

      Yesterday, while I was away in town, Mother Nature broke the ice cake and sent it ashore. Sorry to have missed it.

      Have a fine weekend alles,
      Egor

      • ice cake…reminds of the polar bear threat reduction instructions from the DoD, that came out in early 80’s, as we were manning up new teams for cold weather warfare environment.

        USNSW -3-Step Polar Bear Threat Reduction Instructions;

        1. Cut hole in ice

        2. Place some Peas on edge of the hole

        3. When Polar Bear comes to take a Pea, Kick him in the Icehole.

  3. “Democrats have taken to siding with the Trump ”

    And back there the Republicans sided with Biden. Evidence of the Werewolf game.

    The monetary/credit base will expand and prices will be going up. Print your $AMZN list and look at it Spring-Forward 2026.

    “tour of Iran’s mountains that hide an aggressive nuclear weapons program”

    Two weeks away since 1979. We seem to be in an event suspension of some kind.

    Recall music used to change. Big band/Blues/Jazz/Folk – our era has been Classic Rock since the 1970’s. Rap/Hip-Hop too. “Rappers Delight” by the Sugarhill Gang, 1979 and Blondie’s “Rapture” 1981.

    I’ve been reading about “Epigenetics”.

    Epigenetics is the study of how environmental factors and behaviors can change how genes are turned on or off. These changes are reversible and don’t alter the DNA sequence.

    The COVID Vaxx may have been a genetics manipulation experiment on us.

    The term Mandela Effect has been trending down but nothing significant.

    https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=mandela%20effect&hl=en-US

  4. Work begins here on cleanup from these storms today. All livestock is accounted for and the damage to out buildings is minor. The old BBQ grill on the patio is suspiciously missing. Search is on. Best wishes on your pond project. Fine idea. Once completed you will find you have many new friends.

    Stay safe 73

    • My senior design project at Auburninverters for one of the professors in the Music department was restoring a 10′ deep 2 acre foot pond on his property and installing an 8′ pipe down the hill to the main creek where we put the 16.1″ turbine we turned down from and 18″ hard metal dredge pump impeller to create his 20 KW electric power system. Worked pretty good.
      All DC to farm house then a army surplus motor generator to provide AC for electronics and TV, stereo and such. The motor generator was not terribly efficient but the available electronic inverters were noisy and expensive.

  5. (“Democrats have taken to siding with the Trump administration on budget. US Senate passes Republican spending bill to avert government shutdown. But our sense here is “sideshow” because come fall, if economic rumor mills are correct, we will be in deep recession.”)

    NOODLE NOMICS….the noodle hast to be able to be pushed across the table..just enough water flowing to keep the noodle fluid….. slowing up the water or velocity of cash..the noodle rips apart.. to much and the noodle gets overwhelmed with water and it crumbles.. ever cook pasta way to long..
    A simple visit to any mall or retailer and a quick glance at the cart will give you the answer..
    what I am seeing is less impulse buying more list buying just the essentials..
    back during the Reagan recession email boxes were stuffed with junk mail and new credit card acceptance forms.. we are seeing that now then the coupon ..get this for a ridiculous low price if you buy x amount of goods.. I will never forget toilet paper at a Nicole a package..it was like piranha hitting the end cap..
    this one will if essentials keep escalating or the flow of goods slows and the supply chain fails..it could be astronomical ..

    • Loob,

      What I’ve noticed lately is coupons that have short expiration dates or are only useful for a couple of weeks starting in the next month, so that when I go to order a meal at the drive through I find my coupons are useless, either expired or only kick in next week.

      • Same thing here with coupons in the mail or local ad magazines. Used to be good for 60 days, sometimes 75 and now suddenly only good for 30 days, or even just 21 days.

        Caught me off guard when I pulled one out this week that just came a couple of weeks ago and it’s expiration was next week. They are really trying to drive short term sales.

        btw … a BRAND NEW office/apt/condo development across the river from downtown, really beautifully done in what WILL be a great location in about 5 years (a bit ahead of it’s time) that wasn’t 24 months old sold in a foreclosure sale about 3 weeks ago. Try 25 cents on the new build dollar!! So much for $90 million dollars down the tube. WOW was that fast!!

        May have actually been about $120 million down the tubes, haven’t added up all the numbers yet but looking at the buildings and build quality I would tend to think in the 120 to 150 million range in losses if everything went out at 25+- cents on the dollar since it was probably a close to $200 million build.

        Office portion of the large complex has nice unfinished open floor plan on each floor just ready to be finished off per tenant’s needs but was only 15% rented after wo years …. OOPS … and condo’s weren’t selling well since interest rates jumped to 7% from 3.5% just as they hit hit the market. …. OOPS AGAIN…. and it’s apartments are about 4 blocks away from the current action with nothing going on next to their location … OOPS OOPS AGAIN AGAIN.

        Other areas on the periphery of downtown are doing great even while the CBD itself is so so to declining, but those areas are also “entertainment areas” and people and businesses these days want to locate “where the action is”.

        Easy come easy go … bankers /lenders always make that mistake at market tops but boy that property must have been really leveraged up to go into foreclosure less than 18 months after completion. (the buyer got a good deal since eventually the property will do OK but it is going to take a few years for the location to develop into a desirable destination location – at the moment it can’t even cover it’s operating expenses, forget cash flow to service ANY debt)

      • Yes.. I actually asked a store manager about that.. they are struggling to keep the supplies stocked.. they ordered a huge chunk of restock and only got a few of what they needed..

  6. (“Thinking of a labeling phrase here. Hint: Rhymes with “thumb suckers” and the first word is “dumb.””)

    I love wheel of fortune and vanna ..
    G…… can I get an F…

  7. lining up ducks,,,
    Trump likes to,,
    back when he was doing a lot of rallies , he often drew ‘air Q’s’
    but few paid attention and most just scoffed at the idea of them being ‘air Qs’
    well he is lining you all out now, look here, with his ‘air X’ and to make sure there is no mistake about it, he has the youngster X with him as he does it and points to the young X,,
    Q+ seems to be our President for this term,,, 45-47
    see the super short video here,,,only 4 sec long
    https://x.com/cb_doge/status/1900718415792521421

    • here is the 1:40 sec version,, he draws the X twice, to draw ure attention,
      if ya know,,, ya know
      and there are those who refuse to ‘see’ it
      https://x.com/Brick_Suit/status/1900868870216286479
      got popcorn hulls stuck in my teeth,,, got floss?
      laughing my az off,,, kind of cute, with the little guy following the President without his father right there within a couple of steps.

      build that pond,,, if you want to.

  8. Found a Kota Japan Sharpening Stone Holder on $3 three dollar day at the local Amazon returns store, perfect for my wife’s stone she inherited from her Dad.
    Makes it look nice displayed, and real stable to work with.
    Vic

  9. – On Tuesday I was feeling rather rambunctious. Mentally. So., I delved into a ‘conversation’ with A.I. that went on for over three hours. This exchange was concerning the near exact same one that you had and posted with the Charts this morning. [0.77 cents a week ? – pretty damn good deal ! ]
    – It took a little longer then expected as I ended up dissecting and questioning the A.I.’s answers and remarks. Which lead to some rather ‘discomforting’ outcomes.
    – In fact, I was depressed by the time I had finished. Not so much for me-&-mine., though. As long as it doesn’t get too rowdy around here, with not too much disturbance in the force, we are in a pretty good position., in several areas., as I slowly and quietly started a trade & barter group years back and we seem to have a lot of areas over-lapped and well covered.
    – Interesting – that this small group has been talking a lot lately with each other. Seems a little anxiety is starting to build. I can always tell when everyone is getting nervous – as I receive a lot of requests for weapons check, ammo questions and rebuilds. [ two requests this week and a scope to mount and test-zero. Beautiful rifle.]
    – I will admit that I am still slack on my ham radio gear.

    When going over this conversation with a math-buddy of mine on Thursday [ who has done a lot of research projects regarding recessions and depressions ] – I asked a seemingly ‘normal’ question for such a scenario: “How long do you think this modern day depression would last?” Of all the things we covered, this answer was, to me, the most telling:
    “For the rest of your life.”

    “Stay Frosty !”

    P.S. – I have few questions regarding the charts – as a couple of mine do not line up with yours, nor the comments made on them. However, I will reexamine and study mine again before stepping into that deep-end of the pool. I have managed to have done some very good trading / betting with my charts and analysis as of late – so the disparity is rather interesting – and I just don’t see a big, blow-off rally in the works., five to ten percent, maybe – regaining what has been lost these past few weeks – but that’s about it – and that can be accomplished by mid-April. We’ll see. I didn’t hold over the weekend.

    • Remember the normal retracement range for a Wave 2 is anywhere from 0.30 to 100 percent and one like area of different is that in my aggregate (and maybe in your model) the Aggregate is already completed with a 3 down and so a four and then jump off the slightly higher bridge.
      However, in the nasdaq, which correlates better to the Ebbinghaus notion (forgetfulness curve) we are still in the 1 down withbnd MNAYBE ibnto a 2 up – I can be swayed either way on this part of the count. Suicide playing a bounce in falling markets? n um…yeah, but only a fe wtimes in my life has paper paid as well as patents, IP, and real estate, Happy smithing!

    • dLynn: I seem to remember you cringing at Stu’s stuff. Stu thinks the recovery will take place sometime after 2038; that and deterioration of conditions he is foreseeing would mean that recovery would not be in the lifetime of most of the readers. I take all your opinions with a grain of salt, but I pay attention to the diverse prognostications, and I try to withhold judgement. In this case, I find it interesting that analysis coming from multiple completely antagonistic points of view are converging. Ure host has a different model he is following, but all seem to be converging on the same unpleasant reality.
      I suspect that a factor in all this has been the latest revelations of DOGE have left a lot of ‘Mericans wondering who the real Orwellian Evil empire is. We have seen the enemy, and he is us.
      My broad brush analysis of all this is that there are basic areas of concern for individuals which will supersede bragging rights:
      1. Tolerance of supply chain interruptions, all sources.
      2. Stability of currency and PM’s.
      2. Scarcity of required protein and carbs
      3. Inability to hold and maintain permanent shelter.
      4. Potable water.
      But you say, that is all old new. Yes, but it has been papered over for going on a generation plus by modern monetary theory, bought journalists, and the security state apparatus.
      The form, duration and intensity of waves of misery to come will be somewhat random, as threads of the bottomless purse unravel. You already have had a preview of what’s coming. How fast and how severe will it get? I’m not going to make any prognostications. I like the scent of the Trump Hopium, but I’m going to reserve judgement. The Deep State is literally fighting back for their lives, and they are historically among the most merciless, remorseless, and efficient of death dealers.

      • I think you must have me confused with someone else. I don’t ever remember commenting on Stu’s work.., and when did I say it was “old news”? You make some interesting points., but they little to nothing to do with my post.

        • I will stand corrected on the issue of any public comment you have made on Stu’s work; apologies. I had no intent to misrepresent. I would still have to conclude that the two of you are starting to converge on similar conclusions coming from very different perspectives.
          As for the “old news”, let’s reword that a bit:
          “But you might say, that is all old news.”
          Nuances in the grammar puzzle me. I will quadruple check a post manually, and still find grammar that appears to have morphed after I push the go button. Maybe it’s a fat fingers or old age, but I see similar on other people’s posts. It seem to be worst under Android.

  11. re: “Bracing for next week”
    feat: “The Poseiden Adventure”, 1972

    Folks,
    Nothing like a late winter bracing day, but at least the sun is shining. Yesterday brought word that The Hudson’s Bay Company will be wound down. Like Sears Canada before it, Canada’s oldest company, The Bay, looks to be ending its days now in a similar firesale along with a loss of 9,000+ jobs. Past years have seen a steady selloff of any profitable revenue streams The Bay had in order to feed its seemingly insatiable New York real estate holding company parent.

    History would indicate that the American parent participated in a 2019 sale of a profitable European retail chain subsidiary of The Bay. New York subsequently took The Bay private in 2020. Sadly the sold European chain employing 46,000 collapsed into receivership just over a year ago. Investigators from Austria, Germany, and Italy apparently claim that real estate assessments were overvalued. It seems the 2019 Austrian buyer was allegedly arrested and charged with money laundering and obstruction this past January.

    That being said, hopefully everything is running smoothly in New York for The Bay parent and their banker. One imagines PM Carney has a deep banking background should assistance be required.

  13. George,
    Heads up.
    The Chinese property market has about 100% excess capacity; at the height of the 2008 US housing bubble there was about a 5% US excess capacity. The Shanghai property index (and HangSeng and Shanghai Composite) have paralleled the SPX since Oct 2023 in a declining 3 phase weekly fractal growth progression of 13+/34/27 weeks :: x/2.5x/2x concluding a perfect declining growth fractal series at the fractal timing for 1.5x devaluation. The 27 week 3rd fractal growth was propelled by a huge injection of CCP credit/capital into the banking system.

    This was a you-tube that was posted on 14 March 2025; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrEULvhIw_s

    Take note of the Shanghai property index and Chinese markets this evening.

  14. “Democrats have taken to siding with the Trump administration on budget. US Senate passes Republican spending bill to avert government shutdown. But our sense here is “sideshow” because come fall, if economic rumor mills are correct, we will be in deep recession.”

    No they haven’t.

    Trump left them with no choice. Chess vs marbles…

  15. Please don’t do tilapia.

    I would do largemouth bass, a panfish (bluegill, crappie, rock bass, in order of taste), and the basic bullhead catfish, to scavenge the bottom. Add perch or brook trout if you want more variety. Stay away from goldfish/carp, river trout, and freshwater salmon…

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