Let’s ramble: A number of readers have asked me what I think is going on with Bitcoins and why – if I’m such a wise old man – I don’t ‘invest’ in them.
The answers are incredibly simple.
To begin with there is a YUGE ethical question behind Bitcoins: What is their intrinsic value? You see, in old-school economics, a thing has some intrinsic value: A measure of oil, a bushel of wheat, and such. So the role of agreed money is to act as a durable substitute for the physical goods.
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Measured in terms of durability, gold and silver – hell, even the “iffy” Federal Reserve Notes – as backed up by some notional value. Precious metals have lots of values (jewelry, dentistry, industrial, etc.) and even the FRN’s that coinsters love to bash as “having no value” actually do have significant value.
They just don’t seem to understand as well as our sources on the fringers of The Control Network, that the power to tax is altogether real and tangible.
Bitcoins, if you ever took the time to read the National Commission on EMP summarized in a report to Congress, you would grasp that placing high reliability on anything “electrical” is something of a gamble.
In fairness, there are two views on this: One view (*which I hold to) is that when it fits the needs and agendas of The Control Network (*The PowersThatBe/PTB – the folks who are housecleaning in Hollywood and who took out Roy Moore from politics) the lights will go off while the Rich and Famous all run to their hidey-holes. In this scenario, the control and ruling class simply let we little people empty those 500-million rounds into one-another. After the population reduction is complete, they will come back and “own the world” for their class.
The only issue this leaves is considering what their agenda might look like. In other words, when will ThePowers hit those benchmarks they want online first, so that after social meltdown and cultural genocide, they will be able to pick up the pieces – with least effort – and re-establish control.
It’s a graceful outlook from their point of view because it solves almost ALL their problems.
Oil depletion becomes a non-issue: The banking problems go away. Most pollution problems go bye=bye, natural habitats make some recovery. About the only thing to be done would be an “emergency force” of some kind to ensure only limited meltdowns of nuclear plants takes place during the chaos. Or, that may simply be one of the “costs of doing business, and besides, how many are there in South America and Africa?
With a world population of 500-million, as cited in the 1976 Club of Rome report, (I would suggest you read The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind first as it’s the 1976 document and then follow that with Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update to see the plan more clearly. these things take time to manage.
The other school says no, ThePowers will never turn off the lights because controlling the lights is how people are controlled. Our recent Peoplenomics predictions about 18 (or more) mass shootings in 2018 is based on the notion of a new form of sociopathic narcissism that you can see emerging on Social Media everywhere you look.
Used with limited purposes, computers have a marvelous application. But, when you cross that “Make not idols of yourselves” that’s in many of the world’s old-school religions, you get into slippery slopes fairly quickly. Speaking of which, you did see one a Worldwide Church of A.I. has filed for tax-free status with IRS?
This is another hugely important point to observe since the question is whether science has become fettered, encumbered, and controlled – like a religion – in how marketers have seized on specific environmental problems (burn down the Amazon, for example) and are trying to monetize the whole shebang into a global ruling class with a global climate change tax schema.
Meantime, “climate change” has turned into a marketing frenzy with odd behaviors at every turn. Take the pope for instance: Says Climate Deniers are Perverse. I love when non-experts enter the fray. It becomes even more absurd when the headline “Pope Francis given a Lamborghini sports car – but plans to auction it for charity” crossed the wires. Lambo’s are climate-friendly? You see the contradiction, of course.
But enough of logic and discourse. Let’s get back to good old greed:
The problem with Bitcoin this morning appears when you look at how the recent pricing (*since March) seems to present a finished advance that could be starting down. I’ve penciled it in for you:
Granted this is not a terribly happy outcome for coinsters to consider.
The good news is there is still a count where what I have labeled wave 1 up on the left there doesn’t count and we need to look as a different count starting with the bottom of wave 2. This underscores one of the weaknesses of Elliott in irregular markets.
By “irregular” I mean that the information and numbers of players is in flux. The stock market, on the other hand, has a semi-regular number of players and while the number of dollars will vary, you can make a reasonable estimate as to the “size of the pot” (poker term) on Friday after the US close. Which is why Peoplenomics comes out on Saturday mornings…
For now, we would have to project the Dow down to the 22,560 area and then a blow-off to a final spring high – and that’s good news for Bitcoiners because it would leave open that more optimistic count (from the bottom of 2 in the chart) which would put BTC (digi-tulips) up around $8500-9500 before the bottom falls out. Nice – just keep the lights on.
On to something more current.
A Few Data Points
Industrial Production and Utilization will be announced by the Fed in about 16-mintes – that might move things.
Import and Export Prices are just out:
US. import prices advanced 0.2 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after increasing 0.8 percent in September. U.S. export prices recorded no change in October, after increasing 0.7 percent in September.
Imports
All Imports: Import prices increased 0.2 percent in October, after rising 0.8 percent in September. The price index for all imports rose 1.6 percent over the past 3 months. Higher prices for fuel and nonfuel imports contributed to the overall rise in import prices for October. U.S. import prices increased 2.5 percent for the year ended in October.
Fuel Imports: The price index for fuel imports advanced 1.4 percent in October following a 5.5-percent rise in September. Fuel import prices increased 11.1 percent over the past 3 months. The October increase was driven by higher petroleum prices which advanced 1.7 percent, more than offsetting a 6.7-percent drop in natural gas prices. Fuel import prices rose 13.2 percent over the past 12 months; petroleum prices were the primary contributor, advancing 14.9 percent. Import prices for natural gas fell 18.2 percent over the past year.”
This is just a hint but these prices would seem to suggest deterioration in the related balance of payments deficit…
And going into the Fed data, the Dow futures were up 70, which Peoplenomics readers will recognize will put us near the top of the trend line dating from April of this year, which now becomes overhead resistance, since we had a nice close below it yesterday. From there, I’m looking for sideways action through the Holidays and a dose of “paint the tape” for year-end bonus calcs. FAANG stocks might do OK a while longer.
A final rally driver in Q1 2018 comes into view with Global M&A Activity Predicted to Increase in Q1 2018.
Distractions and Useless?
Decide for Ure-self:
Japanese Train Line Apologizes for ‘Inconvenience’ After Departing 20 Seconds Early.
Amex launches blockchain-based business payments using Ripple. Here all this time, I though Gallo made Ripple.
Roy Moore’s sexual assault allegations cloud Alabama special Senate election.
Rihanna on Building a Beauty Empire: ‘I’m Going To Push the Boundaries in This Industry’. File under ugly threats.
And our biggie to worry about:” Here’s How Many Turkeys Are Killed Each Year For Thanksgiving.
And in our Notes from The Network Department
The Oxford University college fighting elitism.
Naw…really? Tell us it ain’t so…
Off to load on cynical pills, mor’on the morrow…
Wasn’t it Mark Twain who said, “History is a lie agreed upon?” Seems to square with the fake news meme, doesn’t it George?
Bitcoin and blockchain have utility, beyond that of precious metals other than maybe silver. They eliminate armored trucks, vaults, banks, courts, police, armies, hitmen, border controls, and middlemen of other sorts, from selected transactions. Illiterate third world villagers in failed states, with ultracheap smartphones now routinely use cryptos for most commerce. Unlike tulips and fake real estate they can be useful. Unlike gold, they can be stored and transported undetectably, even across borders. Unlike other commerce, blockchains eliminate almost all need for middlemen. If the electricity goes out, all fiat currencies will go to zero. If it comes back, cryptos and blockchain will be supreme. If electricity does not come back on, what recipes do you have for eating gold?
So to the extent we store wealth for a World with electricity still working, Bitcoin is a no brainer for at least Some wealth storage, just as many other items are, such as food, water, cash, reliable transportation, backup power, precious metal, equities, etc. If the folks with guns order all gold and bitcoin to be turned over, an untraceable piece of paper with some random characters on it will be easier to conceal and smuggle. If they tax it, people will pay the tax or not, just as they do with other forms of wealth. I am told that a reprogrammed $20 dollar store phone can be used to transfer as much crypto as one has, using public wifi, then destroyed, leaving no trace other than maybe surveillance video. As with narcotics, human trafficking, smuggling, barter, etc., making an activity illegal usually increases the price, So, at perhaps BTC .00333 per human, there ought to be room for a much bigger bubble, and when it pops, the resting price ought to be pretty high, as well, assuming the technology is as sound as coders say it is. And the governmental agencies now involved in those illegal activities benefit even more from blockchain technologies than the average smuggler, because it makes them even more untraceable.
Perhaps that is why the IMF head recently spoke at length about the strong possibility that blockchain will replace banks. And perhaps a painting selling for $450 million is an indicator about fiat currencies.
So if Bitcoin were valued at $10 per human, it would be worth about $3000, by my reckoning. At $1000 per human, it would be $300,000. In today’s dollars. But what about future dollars, when governments and pensions stop paying debt? Like people, all fiat currencies eventually die.
Re Oxford and elitism . . . I know you’re talking about the university itself (or maybe ‘themselves’ seeing how it looks like a group of schools ‘tacked together’), but there is another kind of elitism . . .
So am I ‘pointy headed’ and ‘elitist’ because I studied history and actual, honest-to-God, proven facts?
While it is damn hard to know what happened before the invention of writing, writing made it better though opinion based – the invention of cameras, film, video, cell-phones – and computers in all their glory – has made the tracking of current events ‘a breeze’.
Information is the currency that the modern world actually trades in.
(My personal opinion – if Donald Trump was truly ‘a smart person’ – he would keep things ‘close to his vest’, but instead he blabs everything via Twitter to the world. He can’t help it, and that will be his downfall . . .)
I try to have an open mind, but consider the source of information, and decide for myself what is true.
Yes and know on Trump tweeting. Our country has for many years had politicians doing business under the table and now right in your face deals with the.. what can you do about it vote me out attitude.
I think Donald realizes the miss use of power by the political system and elite and this is his way of making the secret world politics transparent and open to those of us that voted him into office.
After reading countless comments and reviews of his companies where he has control of them. The employees all feel that he is right there for them.
A commentator for cbs that I admire made a comment on his inauguration party.. he said Donald trump went around to all the workers at his party thanked them then asked for their opinions.. then the announcer said this.. in all my years except for JFK who had ever heard of a president doing something like that.
Oh and with an eighty plus retention level on employees well that gives him bragging rights imho. Very few companies can brag seventy percent and if a company has forty plus turnover well that tells me they have a management issue. Oxford.. I love their library.. as with most big schools they have a nice selection.
Yes and No on his tweeting I think the same way you do but also admire and understand what I think he’s trying to accomplish.. (there are things that should be kept quiet about)
Tom Steyer Funds Commercial Campaign: Time To Impeach Trump
Democratic Party fundraiser Tom Steyer is spending $10 million to run a minute-long commercial imploring viewers to tells their member of Congress “they have a moral responsibility” to impeach President Trump.
WTF!!! You gotta say something about this!
Meh, just another nouveau riche twit who’s never read the Constitution…
This is running in my local channel…
RE:Bitcoin. Check out an article on Roguemoney.net about Cyrptos and Las Vegas shooting. There are quotes from a guy who claims that slot machines are busy mining Bitcoins when not being used by humans. Claims Bitcoin was invented by AI. It had to be given some kind of value to humans so they would make and work the machines to create it. Came out the same time as Silkroad. It is a criminal based program. Needs to create chaos situations to measure human response.
“After the population reduction is complete, they will come back and “own the world” for their class.”
The problem with that scenario is similar to a video I bought years ago. It was a thirty minute video of a cute blonde sexy as can be building a house. Through the whole movie I though yeah I can do that.. Made plans got some materials and decided to build a house. All of a sudden it was different. Went back to the video and noticed they skipped over all the hard parts.
The wealthy in their hidey holes are the same way. They have obtained great knowelege and wealth in the ability to manipulate but no matter what industry they are with if they don’t actually do each job regularly they loose the ability to perform that job.
I went in for a blood test.when The older gentleman was preparing to perform this simple act I asked. Have you done this before. His response was I’ve done this for thirty years. After he dug away for five minutes I asked if he would rather I do the test. I was saved by the young kid with zits talking about his date. The problem. The older gent was the director he had done the job but sat behind a desk for thirty years.
The elite would be unable to function without the ninions.