A fair amount to cover going into the Fed announcement on rates tomorrow. For now, the money centers on “no change” but, of course, a “hot” CPI number could blow all that. Let’s unwrap that pickle first:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter continued to rise in November, offsetting a decline in the gasoline index. The energy index fell 2.3 percent over the month as a 6.0-percent decline in the gasoline index more than offset increases in other energy component indexes. The food index increased 0.2 percent in November, after rising 0.3 percent in October. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month and the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in November, after rising 0.2 percent in October. Indexes which increased in November include rent, owners’ equivalent rent, medical care, and motor vehicle insurance. The indexes for apparel, household furnishings and operations, communication, and recreation were among those that decreased over the month.
The all-items index rose 3.1 percent for the 12 months ending November, a smaller increase than the 3.2-percent increase for the 12 months ending October.
The Big Number is the All-Items Less Food and Energy.
NO CHANGE FOR THE MONTH!
Fed researchers found that over the long-term, while energy prices and food fluctuate, the “core” is a better indicator of real inflation. Reason being dispersion. When prices of energy drop, it doesn’t show up in general goods pricing for as much as a couple of years. Takes time for things to ripple and slosh.
The question these next 48 hours will answer is whether this is all a couple of weeks of “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News.” In other words, if the Fed is going to hold (or raise) tomorrow, is the present market run-up just Wall Street’s way of fleecing long-term investors? Or, is something else going on?
Differential Moving Averages Say?
We’re going higher. Until, of course, we don’t. But here’s the picture of the moving averages prior to the CPI data release today:
Which then turns over into simply waiting for Santa to deliver the top of the unfilled trading box here:
How to Read this mishmash:
- First, look at the timescale. This is an Aggregate View of markets from the Nov. 8, 2021 (so far) all time high.
- In soft martial art gaze, see there was a major Wave 1 down that lasted until mid 2022. From there, we went into a rally.
- That rally is called a macro Wave 2.
- Now, notice that since the lows in the middle of the chart, we can draw three yellow box outlines. We call these “trading boxes” and they are the quickest way to test for Elliott Wave rules.
- In the daily view, it seems that Wave 2 (the rally) (i) [in the move up from the middle was a double zigzag. On the weekly chart, you can see this was really a simple (i) up comprised of an a-b-c, but that’s the kind of thing we kick around over on the Peoplenomics.com website.
Where we are going? We don’t offer financial advice, of course, but the notion of an additional upsurge to fill the right-hand trading box, seems likely. The right box is exactly the same as the left (lower, yellow outline). What that visually tests is the Elliott rule “Fifth waves can never be the smallest move.”
All of which would make it “easy” to make money. Except that fifth waves can (and do) fail.
All that on the table, the smart bet (if I weren’t a compulsive gambler) would be to look at G.A. Stewart’s work, anticipate an attack on Israel over the holidays, and full bloom widening warfare into 2024.
At which time (Andy’s dream, late July) and the continuation of the Wave 2 (5) extension (largely due to hyperinflation) as the US buys its own debt) and then a “surprise war.”
Out here in Ure’s hidey woods, we’re using the time to “get the Ark” in shape. Putting in more greenhouse (radiation-resistant grow spaces) and trying to figure out how to raise potatoes using deep water culture hydroponics (either DWC or RDWC).
That’s because my job (as titular head of this branch of the Ure clan) is to ensure genetic continuity. Which means water, food, shelter, coms and a ton of planning ahead. Which is why Peoplenomics this week is another chapter on Building a Personal Ark and to lay some finances under that, the chapter this week is on Opportunity Eyes.
That’s why, as my 75th birthday present next year, I will drop back to mainly writing the weekly Peoplenomics columns and charts. Maybe once or twice a week here. Because if you’re not prepping, you MIGHT be making a judgement error. Look around you! Prepping is Ark Building for what’s ahead. Much cleaner mental framework. (Say, did I just digress? Hmm…)
What Could Go Wrong?
If you watch the Tucker Carlson interview with Alex Jones (who isn’t as nuts as lefties claim, BTW) the plans of the bug-peddling elites are pretty clear. But they won’t blow the world up (and take the hindmost) until all of their schemes (like the Great Reset bullshit) have blown up.
On the way out, the economy’s going to blow up, too.
Toward the global-socialist elite takeover, there are any number of initiatives underway: Phony money, a new scheme of taxing not just profits but made-up wealth. Plus there are wars (to make people afraid and drive foreigners into the US, plus at the same time the theft of purchasing power through inflation.
It will take another six-months (or longer) for the elites to figure it’s not working as they schemed, at which point it will be off to the bunkers and blow up the world. Fine, we grok it.
But those of the highlights which we can put on the scanner to keep an eye on as we trundle into the Future.
A key part of the Elites takeover/screw over will be a next tax regimen that will allow for massively confiscatory taxes to be along. Therefore study carefully what’s going on in a key crypto case, FTX Legal Showdown: IRS Confronted Over $24 Billion Tax Claim. Essentially, the FTX position is “if there’s no profit taken, there’s no taxes.” IRS (controlled by others) is in the unenviable position of (says FTX) trying to collect “ghost taxes.”
This isn’t a big deal for regular (compliant) people like us. But, it will be. Because unrealized wealth (that is, where it hasn’t been sold and it just has “paper” value) is a dream of dicks and dictators throughout history. Gives a pretext for seizure, following? Wealth confiscation dressed up with lipstick and government arms. Dandy, huh?
When people rebel (only lefties and stupid people would permit taxes on unrealized “gains”) then the shills behind the curtain will have a problem.
When the Klaus Klowns say “You will have nothing (and like it)” what they are banking on is you having nothing. This tax case is part of what we call in marketing a “migration path to an objective.”
The whole Hamas thing had to happen (second front in warfare terms) when it was becoming obvious earlier this year that Ukraine was not going to work out as a land grab and illegal enterprise promised land.
It’s slowly coming into view, but the stories to track (winding toward a NATO loss (which it will be sold as when comes to the Big World War in 24) include today’s list like Ukraine’s major mobile operator Kyivstar down (ukrinform.net) and Atmosphere of impending doom in Kiev: “The worst is yet to come” – Vladimir Putin: “No negotiations – We are stronger than ever” – WarNews247.
This sets up the US/EU/NATO (and you) as the Klaus Klowns scorched Earth to “punish Russia” for daring to embrace its culturally bound allies (the Russian speakers of Crimea and such). Don’t worry, it will all be settled in a flash.
The other front happens because Israel gets the gas deposits off Gaza, and if Hezbollah wades in, then the Leviathan gas and oil fields overall are in play. Which means America goes into Syria and Lebanon in advance of WW3. Sometime in the spring on our dance cards, then?
We can’t even pretend to have the moral high ground in the Middle East anymore, because US White Phosphorus Shells Used by Israel in Lebanon Attack: Report – World news – Tasnim News Agency. The houseplant in the Oval is looking concerned – while green-lighting things: ‘I’m a Zionist’: Biden Promises to Back Israel Until They ‘Get Rid’ of Hamas. But There Is Fine Print. Like a Hunter deal, we wonder?
How bad is Gaza? Well… Gaza destruction greater than that of Germany in World War II, says EU foreign policy chief amid Israel-Hamas war – India Today. Guess role reversals are part of the historical semi-rhymes, aren’t they?
Put-Up Politics Fit, Too
Limit choices and demonize candidates has been the elite’s control mechanism here. As in steal away choice: Fla. Democrats won’t have a vote in 2024 presidential primary – Raw Story. And demonize Orange Man – who rages back: Donald Trump Rages at Supreme Court Granting Jack Smith’s Wish (newsweek.com).
Anything – and we mean ANYTHING to keep Trump off the ballot: Jack Smith to use Trump’s phone data at trial (axios.com). Does a sitting President have a reasonable right to expect privacy in his office? When do we get Biden’s phone?
Then There’s the Climate Scam
Say good by to being able to move freely and untracked around the country (or wherever you want). That’s the real goal with financially isolating people with electric cars, in some measure.
At the Charade: Pseudo-drama by DeLuxe is the play: Anger at ‘watered-down’ COP28 draft deal on fossil fuels | ITV News. And No Agreement on Fossil Fuel Phase-Out in Draft COP28 Deal, But Spotlight on Unabated Coal – News18.
Gun Grabs Coming, Too
Last tick-mark today? The gun grabs are in the foundation-building phase now. Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham announces targeted in-school campaigns to combat gun violence – KOB.com (New Mexico). And liberal Northeast: New York can enforce gun laws in ‘sensitive locations’ for now, appeals court rules. I looked really close and damned if I could see the term “sensitive locations” in the Constitution. But Courts no longer rule on points of law. They issue decisions based on their perceptions of issue popularity within constituencies, near as I can figure it.
ATR: The “Santa Squeeze”
Santa’s schedule is getting busier.
My efforts to click my way out of cooking Christmas dinner blew up. Only thing that seems to be available for local pick up is Ham dinners. Which, since we eat pork often, ain’t that special.
Still, I can turn out a great prime rib with no more than 15-minutes of work.
3- minutes spent getting one out of the chest freezer.
Two days later after it thaws (a zero-work event, right?)
10-minutes: Preheat oven, dust with herbes d Provance and stick a meat thermometer in, place in oven, pour us drinks and wander off.
1 Minute: Turn oven from 450 F down to completely off.
The finally, 2 hours later: Open oven, remove, and slice.
But this gets back on a topic I have been spending a lot of time thinking about lately. People have two kinds of time. Thinking about it time. And separate is the “doing it time.”
My resolution going into 2024 is to spend less time thinking and more time doing. Most mornings I get up, have a thorough well-trained professional scan of the news and get disgusted. Ruins the whole vibe of the day.
2024 will be doing more and ignore most of the news except for the crookery of the Klaus Klowns. And getting a base tan ahead of next summer’s events.
Write when you get rich,